Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Functional dynamics of PDZ binding domains: a normal-mode analysis.

Postsynaptic density-95/disks large/zonula occludens-1 (PDZ) domains are relatively small (80-120 residues) protein binding modules central in the organization of receptor clusters and in the association of cellular proteins. Their main function is to bind C-terminals of selected proteins that are recognized through specific amino acids in their carboxyl end. Binding is associated with a deformation of the PDZ native structure and is responsible for dynamical changes in regions not in direct contact with the target. We investigate how this deformation is related to the harmonic dynamics of the PDZ structure and show that one low-frequency collective normal mode, characterized by the concerted movements of different secondary structures, is involved in the binding process. Our results suggest that even minimal structural changes are responsible for communication between distant regions of the protein, in agreement with recent NMR experiments. Thus, PDZ domains are a very clear example of how collective normal modes are able to characterize the relation between function and dynamics of proteins, and to provide indications on the precursors of binding/unbinding events.

Habitat-quality effects on metapopulation dynamics in greater white-toothed shrews, Crocidura russula.

The effects of patch size and isolation on metapopulation dynamics have received wide empirical support and theoretical formalization. By contrast, the effects of patch quality seem largely underinvestigated, partly due to technical difficulties in properly assessing quality. Here we combine habitat-quality modeling with four years of demographic monitoring in a metapopulation of greater white-toothed shrews (Crocidura russula) to investigate the role of patch quality on metapopulation processes. Together, local patch quality and connectivity significantly enhanced local population sizes and occupancy rates (R2 = 14% and 19%, respectively). Accounting for the quality of patches connected to the focal one and acting as potential sources improved slightly the model explanatory power for local population sizes, pointing to significant source-sink dynamics. Local habitat quality, in interaction with connectivity, also increased colonization rate (R2 = 28%), suggesting the ability of immigrants to target high-quality patches. Overall, patterns were best explained when assuming a mean dispersal distance of 800 m, a realistic value for the species under study. Our results thus provide evidence that patch quality, in interaction with connectivity, may affect major demographic processes.

Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Statistical properties of population differentiation estimators under stepwise mutation in a finite island model.

Microsatellite loci mutate at an extremely high rate and are generally thought to evolve through a stepwise mutation model. Several differentiation statistics taking into account the particular mutation scheme of the microsatellite have been proposed. The most commonly used is R(ST) which is independent of the mutation rate under a generalized stepwise mutation model. F(ST) and R(ST) are commonly reported in the literature, but often differ widely. Here we compare their statistical performances using individual-based simulations of a finite island model. The simulations were run under different levels of gene flow, mutation rates, population number and sizes. In addition to the per locus statistical properties, we compare two ways of combining R(ST) over loci. Our simulations show that even under a strict stepwise mutation model, no statistic is best overall. All estimators suffer to different extents from large bias and variance. While R(ST) better reflects population differentiation in populations characterized by very low gene-exchange, F(ST) gives better estimates in cases of high levels of gene flow. The number of loci sampled (12, 24, or 96) has only a minor effect on the relative performance of the estimators under study. For all estimators there is a striking effect of the number of samples, with the differentiation estimates showing very odd distributions for two samples.

Mdx myotubes have normal excitability but show reduced contraction-relaxation dynamics.

The pathogenesis of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), characterised by lack of the cytoskeletal protein dystrophin, is not completely understood. An early event in the degenerative process of DMD muscle could be a rise in cytosolic calcium concentration. In order to investigate whether this leads to alterations of contractile behaviour, we studied the excitability and contractile properties of cultured myotubes from control (C57BL/10) and mdx mice, an animal model for DMD. The myotubes were stimulated electrically and their motion was recorded photometrically. No significant differences were found between control and mdx myotubes with respect to the following parameters: chronaxy and rheobase (0.33 +/- 0.03 ms and 23 +/- 4 V vs. 0.39 +/- 0.07 ms and 22 +/- 2 V for C57 and mdx myotubes, respectively), tetanisation frequency (a similar distribution pattern was found between 5 and 30 Hz), fatigue during tetanus (found in 35% of both types of myotubes) and post-tetanic contracture. In contrast, contraction and relaxation times were longer (P < 0.005) in mdx (36 +/- 2 and 142 +/- 13 ms, respectively) than in control myotubes (26 +/- 1 and 85 +/- 9 ms, respectively). Together with our earlier findings, these results suggest a decreased capacity for calcium removal in mdx cells leading, in particular, to alterations of muscle relaxation.

The dynamics of interfaces: Seven authors in search of encounters across levels of description of an event involving a mother, father, and baby

The interfaces between the intrapsychic, interactional, and intergenerational domains are a new frontier. As a pilot, we exposed ourselves to a complex but controllable situation as viewed by people whose main interest is in one of the three interfaces; we also fully integrated the subjects in the team, to learn about their subjective perspectives and to provide them with an enriching experience. We started with a brief "triadification" sequence (i.e., moving from a "two plus one" to a "three together" family organization). Considering this sequence as representing at a micro level many larger family transitions, we proceeded with a microanalytic interview, a psychodynamic investigation, and a family interview. As expected, larger patterns of correspondences are emerging. Central questions under debate are: What are the most appropriate units at each level of description and what are their articulations between these levels? What is the status of "triadification"? Les interfaces entre les domaines intrapsychiques, interactionnels et intergénérationnels représentent une nouvelle frontiére. A titre exploratoire, nous nous sommes exposés à une situation complexe mais contrǒlable ainsi que le voient ceux dont I'intérět principal se porte sur l'une de ces trois interfaces. Nous avons aussi entièrement intégré les sujets dans l'équipe, de facon à comprendre leur perspective subjective et à leur offrir une expérience enrichissante. Nous avons commencé avec une brève séquence de "triadification," c'est-à-dire passer d'une organisation familiale "deux plus un" à Ltne organisation familiale "trois (add sentenc)ensemble." Considérant cette séquence comme representative à un niveau microscopique de transitions familiales bien plus larges, nous avons procedé à l'entretien microanalytique, à une enquěte psychodynamique et à un entretien familial. Comme prévu, de grands patterns de correspondances émergent. Les questions essentielles sur lesquelles portent le débat sont: quelles les unités les plus appropiées à chaque niveau de description et quelles sont les articulations entre ces niveaux? Quel est le statut de la "triadification"?

Ab initio modeling and molecular dynamics simulation of the alpha 1b-adrenergic receptor activation.

This work describes the ab initio procedure employed to build an activation model for the alpha 1b-adrenergic receptor (alpha 1b-AR). The first version of the model was progressively modified and complicated by means of a many-step iterative procedure characterized by the employment of experimental validations of the model in each upgrading step. A combined simulated (molecular dynamics) and experimental mutagenesis approach was used to determine the structural and dynamic features characterizing the inactive and active states of alpha 1b-AR. The latest version of the model has been successfully challenged with respect to its ability to interpret and predict the functional properties of a large number of mutants. The iterative approach employed to describe alpha 1b-AR activation in terms of molecular structure and dynamics allows further complications of the model to allow prediction and interpretation of an ever-increasing number of experimental data.

Dynamics of HIV latency and reactivation in a primary CD4+ T cell model.

HIV latency is a major obstacle to curing infection. Current strategies to eradicate HIV aim at increasing transcription of the latent provirus. In the present study we observed that latently infected CD4+ T cells from HIV-infected individuals failed to produce viral particles upon ex vivo exposure to SAHA (vorinostat), despite effective inhibition of histone deacetylases. To identify steps that were not susceptible to the action of SAHA or other latency reverting agents, we used a primary CD4+ T cell model, joint host and viral RNA sequencing, and a viral-encoded reporter. This model served to investigate the characteristics of latently infected cells, the dynamics of HIV latency, and the process of reactivation induced by various stimuli. During latency, we observed persistence of viral transcripts but only limited viral translation. Similarly, the reactivating agents SAHA and disulfiram successfully increased viral transcription, but failed to effectively enhance viral translation, mirroring the ex vivo data. This study highlights the importance of post-transcriptional blocks as one mechanism leading to HIV latency that needs to be relieved in order to purge the viral reservoir.

Membrane potential dynamics of neocortical projection neurons driving target-specific signals.

Primary sensory cortex discriminates incoming sensory information and generates multiple processing streams toward other cortical areas. However, the underlying cellular mechanisms remain unknown. Here, by making whole-cell recordings in primary somatosensory barrel cortex (S1) of behaving mice, we show that S1 neurons projecting to primary motor cortex (M1) and those projecting to secondary somatosensory cortex (S2) have distinct intrinsic membrane properties and exhibit markedly different membrane potential dynamics during behavior. Passive tactile stimulation evoked faster and larger postsynaptic potentials (PSPs) in M1-projecting neurons, rapidly driving phasic action potential firing, well-suited for stimulus detection. Repetitive active touch evoked strongly depressing PSPs and only transient firing in M1-projecting neurons. In contrast, PSP summation allowed S2-projecting neurons to robustly signal sensory information accumulated during repetitive touch, useful for encoding object features. Thus, target-specific transformation of sensory-evoked synaptic potentials by S1 projection neurons generates functionally distinct output signals for sensorimotor coordination and sensory perception.

Optimized venous return with a self-expanding cannula: from computational fluid dynamics to clinical application.

The Smart canula concept allows for collapsed cannula insertion, and self-expansion within a vein of the body. (A) Computational fluid dynamics, and (B) bovine experiments (76+/-3.8 kg) were performed for comparative analyses, prior to (C) the first clinical application. For an 18F access, a given flow of 4 l/min (A) resulted in a pressure drop of 49 mmHg for smart cannula versus 140 mmHg for control. The corresponding Reynolds numbers are 680 versus 1170, respectively. (B) For an access of 28F, the maximal flow for smart cannula was 5.8+/-0.5 l/min versus 4.0+/-0.1 l/min for standard (P<0.0001), for 24F 5.5+/-0.6 l/min versus 3.2+/-0.4 l/min (P<0.0001), and for 20F 4.1+/-0.3 l/min versus 1.6+/-0.3 l/min (P<0.0001). The flow obtained with the smart cannula was 270+/-45% (20F), 172+/-26% (24F), and 134+/-13% (28F) of standard (one-way ANOVA, P=0.014). (C) First clinical application (1.42 m2) with a smart cannula showed 3.55 l/min (100% predicted) without additional fluids. All three assessment steps confirm the superior performance of the smart cannula design.

Setting boundaries: brain dynamics of modal and amodal illusory shape completion in humans.

Normal visual perception requires differentiating foreground from background objects. Differences in physical attributes sometimes determine this relationship. Often such differences must instead be inferred, as when two objects or their parts have the same luminance. Modal completion refers to such perceptual "filling-in" of object borders that are accompanied by concurrent brightness enhancement, in turn termed illusory contours (ICs). Amodal completion is filling-in without concurrent brightness enhancement. Presently there are controversies regarding whether both completion processes use a common neural mechanism and whether perceptual filling-in is a bottom-up, feedforward process initiating at the lowest levels of the cortical visual pathway or commences at higher-tier regions. We previously examined modal completion (Murray et al., 2002) and provided evidence that the earliest modal IC sensitivity occurs within higher-tier object recognition areas of the lateral occipital complex (LOC). We further proposed that previous observations of IC sensitivity in lower-tier regions likely reflect feedback modulation from the LOC. The present study tested these proposals, examining the commonality between modal and amodal completion mechanisms with high-density electrical mapping, spatiotemporal topographic analyses, and the local autoregressive average distributed linear inverse source estimation. A common initial mechanism for both types of completion processes (140 msec) that manifested as a modulation in response strength within higher-tier visual areas, including the LOC and parietal structures, is demonstrated, whereas differential mechanisms were evident only at a subsequent time period (240 msec), with amodal completion relying on continued strong responses in these structures.