The epidemiologic transition to chronic diseases in developing countries: cardiovascular mortality, morbidity, and risk factors in Seychelles (Indian Ocean).

The occurrence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and related risk factors was evaluated in Seychelles, a middle level income country, as accumulating evidence supports increasing rates of CVD in developing countries. CVD mortality was obtained from vital statistics for two periods, 1984-5 and 1991-3. CVD morbidity was estimated by retrospective review of discharge diagnoses for all admissions to medical wards in 1990-1992. Levels of CVD risk factors in the population were assessed in 1989 through a population-based survey. In 1991-93, standardized mortality rates were in males and females respectively, 80.9 and 38.8 for cerebrovascular disease and 92.9 and 47.0 for ischemic heart disease. CVD accounted for 25.2% of all admissions to medical wards. Among the general population aged 35-64, 30% had high blood pressure, 52% of males smoked, and 28% of females were obese. These findings substantiate the current health transition to CVD in Seychelles. More generally, epidemiologic data on CVD mortality, morbidity, and related risk factors, as well as similar indicators for other chronic diseases, should more consistently appear in national and international reports of human development to help emphasize, in the health policy making scene, the current transition to chronic diseases in developing countries and the subsequent need for appropriate control and prevention programs.

The oxygen concentrator : an appropriate technology for treating hypoxaemic children in developing countries

RÉSUMÉ L'Organisation Mondiale de la Santé (OMS) recommande d'administrer l'oxygène par concentrateurs dans les pays en voie de développement (PVD), les cylindres posant des problèmes logistiques et financiers trop importants. Cette technologie a été proposée aux enfants d'un hôpital sénégalais (Ndioum) qui présentaient les critères d'oxygénation de l'OMS. Les bénéfices cliniques et financiers ont été majeurs. En revanche, les connaissances des soignants sur les diverses techniques d'administration d'oxygène ainsi que les prestations du service de maintenance étaient insuffisantes. L'implantation de concentrateurs doit être encouragée dans les PVD, mais doit respecter une stratégie englobant enseignement, maintenance et suivi de l'opération. Diverses actions correctrices ont été entreprises à Ndioum où plusieurs concentrateurs fonctionnent désormais régulièrement. Summary: The World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends supplying oxygen in developing countries by concentra¬tors because cylinders pose considerable logistic and financial problems. This technology was employed to treat children in a hospital in Ndioum, Senegal, who met the WHO oxygenation criteria. There were clear clinical and financial benefits, but neither the nurses' knowledge of the various techniques of oxygen supply nor the maintenance service were satisfactory. The use of concentra¬tors should be encouraged in developing countries. A strategy including technical training, maintenance and monitoring should be adopted. Corrective actions were undertaken in Ndioum, and several concentrators are now being used on a regular basis.

The cost effectiveness of pharmacological smoking cessation therapies in developing countries: a case study in the Seychelles

OBJECTIVE: To examine the incremental cost effectiveness of the five first line pharmacological smoking cessation therapies in the Seychelles and other developing countries. DESIGN: A Markov chain cohort simulation. SUBJECTS: Two simulated cohorts of smokers: (1) a reference cohort given physician counselling only; (2) a treatment cohort given counselling plus cessation therapy. INTERVENTION: Addition of each of the five pharmacological cessation therapies to physician provided smoking cessation counselling. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost per life-year saved (LYS) associated with the five pharmacotherapies. Effectiveness expressed as odds ratios for quitting associated with pharmacotherapies. Costs based on the additional physician time required and retail prices of the medications. RESULTS: Based on prices for currently available generic medications on the global market, the incremental cost per LYS for a 45 year old in the Seychelles was 599 US dollars for gum and 227 dollars for bupropion. Assuming US treatment prices as a conservative estimate, the incremental cost per LYS was significantly higher, though still favourable in comparison to other common medical interventions: 3712 dollars for nicotine gum, 1982 dollars for nicotine patch, 4597 dollars for nicotine spray, 4291 dollars for nicotine inhaler, and 1324 dollars for bupropion. Cost per LYS increased significantly upon application of higher discount rates, which may be used to reflect relatively high opportunity costs for health expenditures in developing countries with highly constrained resources and high overall mortality. CONCLUSION: Pharmacological cessation therapy can be highly cost effective as compared to other common medical interventions in low mortality, middle income countries, particularly if medications can be procured at low prices.

Do political factors matter in explaining under- and overweight outcomes in developing countries?

We construct a rich dataset covering 47 developing countries over the years 1990-2007, combining several micro and macro level data sources to explore the link between political factors and body mass index (BMI). We implement a heteroskedastic generalized ordered logit model allowing for different covariate effects across the BMI distribution and accounting for the unequal BMI dispersion by geographical area. We find that systems with democratic qualities are more likely to reduce under-weight, but increase overweight/obesity, whereas effective political competition does entail double-benefits in the form of reducing both under-weight and obesity. Our results are robust to the introduction of country fixed effects.

Effect of a Road Safety Training Program on Drivers' Comparative Optimism

Reducing comparative optimism regarding risk perceptions in traffic accidents has been proven to be particularly difficult (Delhomme, 2000). This is unfortunate because comparative optimism is assumed to impede preventive action. The present study tested whether a road safety training course could reduce drivers' comparative optimism in high control situations. Results show that the training course efficiently reduced comparative optimism in high control, but not in low control situations. Mechanisms underlying this finding and implications for the design of road safety training courses are discussed.

A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

The hospital pharmacist: an important contributor to improved patient safety in the hospital.

Injectable drugs are high-risk products and their reconstitution in hospital wards is a potential source of errors. Thus, in order to secure the reconstitution process and thereby improve safety, the pharmacy department of Lausanne University Hospital is focusing on developing ready-to-use forms (CIVAS). These preparations are compounded in controlled clean rooms and are analyzed prior to release. In the intensive care unit, amiodarone 12.5 mg/mL in glucose 5% is one of the high-risk preparations, which has led the pharmacy to develop a ready-to-use solution. To this end, a one-year stability study was initiated, and the preliminary results (after six months) are illustrated here. A stability-indicating HPLC method was developed and validated for monitoring the concentration of amiodarone. Batches were stored at 5 °C and 30 °C, which were analyzed immediately after preparation, after one, two, four and six months of storage. The pH and osmolality values were monitored at the respective time intervals. It was observed that after six months, all the results were within specifications. However, the pH values started to decrease after two months when amiodarone was stored at 30 °C. After six months, a degradation peak appeared on the chromatogram of these solutions, which suggested that amiodarone is more stable at 5 °C. The preliminary results obtained in this study indicated that injectable amiodarone solutions are stable for six months under refrigerated storage conditions. The study is ongoing.

High prevalence of peripheral atherosclerosis in a rapidly developing country.

Cardiovascular disease is rapidly increasing in developing countries experiencing epidemiological transition. We investigated the prevalence of peripheral atherosclerosis in a rapidly developing country and compared our findings with data previously reported in Western populations. A cardiovascular risk factor survey was conducted in 1067 individuals aged 25-64 randomly selected from the general population of Seychelles. High-resolution ultrasonography of the right and left carotid and femoral arteries was performed in a random subgroup of 503 subjects (245 men and 258 women). In each of the four arteries, arterial wall thickness (in plaque-free segments) and atherosclerotic plaques (i.e. focal wall thickening at least 1.0 mm thick) were measured separately. The prevalence of peripheral atherosclerosis was high in this population. For instance, at least one plaque > or =1.0 mm was found in, respectively, 34.9 and 27.5% of men and women aged 25-34 and at least one plaque > or =2.5 mm was found in, respectively, 58.2 and 36.9% of men and women aged 55-64. With reference to data found in the literature, the prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis appeared to be significantly higher in Seychelles than in Western populations. This study provides further evidence for the importance of cardiovascular disease in developing countries. Determinants should be identified and relevant prevention and control programs implemented.

Prevalence of hyperuricemia and relation of serum uric acid with cardiovascular risk factors in a developing country.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of hyperuricemia has rarely been investigated in developing countries. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the prevalence of hyperuricemia and the association between uric acid levels and the various cardiovascular risk factors in a developing country with high average blood pressures (the Seychelles, Indian Ocean, population mainly of African origin). METHODS: This cross-sectional health examination survey was based on a population random sample from the Seychelles. It included 1011 subjects aged 25 to 64 years. Blood pressure (BP), body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, total and HDL cholesterol, serum triglycerides and serum uric acid were measured. Data were analyzed using scatterplot smoothing techniques and gender-specific linear regression models. RESULTS: The prevalence of a serum uric acid level >420 micromol/L in men was 35.2% and the prevalence of a serum uric acid level >360 micromol/L was 8.7% in women. Serum uric acid was strongly related to serum triglycerides in men as well as in women (r = 0.73 in men and r = 0.59 in women, p < 0.001). Uric acid levels were also significantly associated but to a lesser degree with age, BMI, blood pressure, alcohol and the use of antihypertensive therapy. In a regression model, triglycerides, age, BMI, antihypertensive therapy and alcohol consumption accounted for about 50% (R2) of the serum uric acid variations in men as well as in women. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the prevalence of hyperuricemia can be high in a developing country such as the Seychelles. Besides alcohol consumption and the use of antihypertensive therapy, mainly diuretics, serum uric acid is markedly associated with parameters of the metabolic syndrome, in particular serum triglycerides. Considering the growing incidence of obesity and metabolic syndrome worldwide and the potential link between hyperuricemia and cardiovascular complications, more emphasis should be put on the evolving prevalence of hyperuricemia in developing countries.

A two-week workshop to promote cardiovascular disease prevention programs in countries with limited resources.

Training is a crucial tool for building the capacity necessary for prevention and control of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in developing countries. This paper summarizes some features of a 2-week workshop aimed at enabling local health professionals to initiate a comprehensive CVD prevention and control program in a context of limited resources. The workshops have been organized in the regions where CVD prevention programs are being contemplated, in cooperation with health authorities of the concerned regions. The workshop's content includes a broad variety of issues related to CVD prevention and control, and to program development. Strong emphasis is placed on "learning by doing," and groups of 5-6 participants conduct a small-scale epidemiological study during the first week; during the second week, they draft a virtual program of CVD prevention and control adapted to the local situation. This practice-oriented workshop focuses on building expertise among anticipated key players, strengthening networks among relevant health professionals, and advocating the urgent need to tackle the emerging CVD epidemic in developing countries.

European Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance (EuroCMR) registry--multi national results from 57 centers in 15 countries.

BACKGROUND: The EuroCMR registry sought to evaluate indications, image quality, safety and impact on patient management of clinical routine CMR in a multi-national European setting. Furthermore, interim analysis of the specific protocols should underscore the prognostic potential of CMR. METHODS: Multi-center registry with consecutive enrolment of patients in 57 centers in 15 countries. More than 27000 consecutive patients were enrolled. RESULTS: The most important indications were risk stratification in suspected CAD/Ischemia (34.2%), workup of myocarditis/cardiomyopathies (32.2%), as well as assessment of viability (14.6%). Image quality was diagnostic in more than 98% of cases. Severe complications occurred in 0.026%, always associated with stress testing. No patient died during or due to CMR. In 61.8% CMR findings impacted on patient management. Importantly, in nearly 8.7% the final diagnosis based on CMR was different to the diagnosis before CMR, leading to a complete change in management. Interim analysis of suspected CAD and risk stratification in HCM specific protocols revealed a low rate of adverse events for suspected CAD patients with normal stress CMR (1.0% per year), and for HCM patients without LGE (2.7% per year). CONCLUSION: The most important indications in Europe are risk stratification in suspected CAD/Ischemia, work-up of myocarditis and cardiomyopathies, as well as assessment of viability. CMR imaging is a safe procedure, has diagnostic image quality in more than 98% of cases, and its results have strong impact on patient management. Interim analyses of the specific protocols underscore the prognostic value of clinical routine CMR in CAD and HCM.

Prospective association of the SHARE-operationalized frailty phenotype with adverse health outcomes: evidence from 60+ community-dwelling Europeans living in 11 countries.

BACKGROUND: Among the many definitions of frailty, the frailty phenotype defined by Fried et al. is one of few constructs that has been repeatedly validated: first in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and subsequently in other large cohorts in the North America. In Europe, the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) is a gold mine of individual, economic and health information that can provide insight into better understanding of frailty across diverse population settings. A recent adaptation of the original five CHS-frailty criteria was proposed to make use of SHARE data and measure frailty in the European population. To test the validity of the SHARE operationalized frailty phenotype, this study aims to evaluate its prospective association with adverse health outcomes. METHODS: Data are from 11,015 community-dwelling men and women aged 60+ participating in wave 1 and 2 of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe, a population-based survey. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the 2-year follow up effect of SHARE-operationalized frailty phenotype on the incidence of disability (disability-free at baseline) and on worsening disability and morbidity, adjusting for age, sex, income and baseline morbidity and disability. RESULTS: At 2-year follow up, frail individuals were at increased risk for: developing mobility (OR 3.07, 95% CI, 1.02-9.36), IADL (OR 5.52, 95% CI, 3.76-8.10) and BADL (OR 5.13, 95% CI, 3.53-7.44) disability; worsening mobility (OR 2.94, 95% CI, 2.19- 3.93) IADL (OR 4.43, 95% CI, 3.19-6.15) and BADL disability (OR 4.53, 95% CI, 3.14-6.54); and worsening morbidity (OR 1.77, 95% CI, 1.35-2.32). These associations were significant even among the prefrail, but with a lower magnitude of effect. CONCLUSIONS: The SHARE-operationalized frailty phenotype is significantly associated with all tested health outcomes independent of baseline morbidity and disability in community-dwelling men and women aged 60 and older living in Europe. The robustness of results validate the use of this phenotype in the SHARE survey for future research on frailty in Europe.