8 resultados para Risk Stratification

em Université de Lausanne, Switzerland


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AIMS: Estimates of the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in patients with life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias related to coronary artery disease (CAD) have rarely been reported despite it has become the basis for determining patient's eligibility for prophylactic defibrillator. We aimed to determine the extent and distribution of reduced LVEF in patients with sustained ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation. METHODS AND RESULTS: 252 patients admitted for ventricular arrhythmia related to CAD were included: 149 had acute myocardial infarction (MI) (Group I, 59%), 54 had significant chronic obstructive CAD suggestive of an ischaemic arrhythmic trigger (Group II, 21%) and 49 patients had an old MI without residual ischaemia (Group III, 19%). 34% of the patients with scar-related arrhythmias had an LVEF > or =40%. Based on pre-event LVEF evaluation, it can be estimated that less than one quarter of the whole study population had a known chronic MI with severely reduced LVEF. In Group III, the proportion of inferior MI was significantly higher than anterior MI (81 vs. 19%; absolute difference, -62; 95% confidence interval, -45 to -79; P < or = 0.0001), though median LVEF was higher in inferior MI (0.37 +/- 10 vs. 0.29 +/- 10; P = 0.0499). CONCLUSION: Patients included in defibrillator trials represent only a minority of the patients at risk of sudden cardiac death. By applying the current risk stratification strategy based on LVEF, more than one third of the patients with old MI would not have qualified for a prophylactic defibrillator. Our study also suggests that inferior scars may be more prone to ventricular arrhythmia compared to anterior scars.

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OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between inflammation and heart failure (HF) risk in older adults. BACKGROUND: Inflammation is associated with HF risk factors and also directly affects myocardial function. METHODS: The association of baseline serum concentrations of interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and C-reactive protein (CRP) with incident HF was assessed with Cox models among 2,610 older persons without prevalent HF enrolled in the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study (age 73.6 +/- 2.9 years; 48.3% men; 59.6% white). RESULTS: During follow-up (median 9.4 years), HF developed in 311 (11.9%) participants. In models controlling for clinical characteristics, ankle-arm index, and incident coronary heart disease, doubling of IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and CRP concentrations was associated with 29% (95% confidence interval: 13% to 47%; p < 0.001), 46% (95% confidence interval: 17% to 84%; p = 0.001), and 9% (95% confidence interval: -1% to 24%; p = 0.087) increase in HF risk, respectively. In models including all 3 markers, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha, but not CRP, remained significant. These associations were similar across sex and race and persisted in models accounting for death as a competing event. Post-HF ejection fraction was available in 239 (76.8%) cases; inflammatory markers had stronger association with HF with preserved ejection fraction. Repeat IL-6 and CRP determinations at 1-year follow-up did not provide incremental information. Addition of IL-6 to the clinical Health ABC HF model improved model discrimination (C index from 0.717 to 0.734; p = 0.001) and fit (decreased Bayes information criterion by 17.8; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory markers are associated with HF risk among older adults and may improve HF risk stratification.

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Active surveillance in prostate cancer The spread of PSA in the screening of prostate cancer has almost doubled the incidence of this disease in the last twenty years. An improved understanding of the natural history of this cancer allows for risk stratification of the disease and to better predict insignificant prostate cancer. Active surveillance has recently been proposed as a new option to delay or avoid a radical treatment for patients with low-risk disease. The principle, results and future perspectives of this treatment modality are discussed in this review.

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Pulmonary embolism (PE) is traditionally treated in hospital. Growing evidence from non randomized prospective studies suggests that a substantial proportion of patients with non-massive PE might be safely treated in the outpatient setting using low molecular weight heparins. Based on this evidence, professional societies started to recommend outpatient care for selected patients with non-massive PE. Despite these recommendations, outpatient treatment of non-massive PE appears to be uncommon in clinical practice. The major barriers to PE outpatient care are, firstly, the uncertainty as how to identify low risk patients with PE who are candidates for outpatient care and secondly the lack of high quality evidence from randomized trials demonstrating the safety of PE outpatient care compared to traditional inpatient management. Also, although clinical prognostic models, echocardiography and cardiac biomarkers accurately identify low risk patients with PE in prospective studies, the benefit of risk stratification strategies based on these instruments should be demonstrated in prospective management studies and clinical trials before they can be implemented as decision aids to guide PE outpatient treatment. Before high quality evidence documenting the safety of an outpatient treatment approach is published, outpatient management of non-massive PE cannot be generally recommended.

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The association between adiposity measures and dyslipidemia has seldom been assessed in a multipopulational setting. 27 populations from Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Canada (WHO MONICA project) using health surveys conducted between 1990 and 1997 in adults aged 35-64 years (n = 40,480). Dyslipidemia was defined as the total/HDL cholesterol ratio >6 (men) and >5 (women). Overall prevalence of dyslipidemia was 25% in men and 23% in women. Logistic regression showed that dyslipidemia was strongly associated with body mass index (BMI) in men and with waist circumference (WC) in women, after adjusting for region, age and smoking. Among normal-weight men and women (BMI<25 kg/m(2)), an increase in the odds for being dyslipidemic was observed between lowest and highest WC quartiles (OR = 3.6, p < 0.001). Among obese men (BMI ≥ 30), the corresponding increase was smaller (OR = 1.2, p = 0.036). A similar weakening was observed among women. Classification tree analysis was performed to assign subjects into classes of risk for dyslipidemia. BMI thresholds (25.4 and 29.2 kg/m(2)) in men and WC thresholds (81.7 and 92.6 cm) in women came out at first stages. High WC (>84.8 cm) in normal-weight men, menopause in women and regular smoking further defined subgroups at increased risk. standard categories of BMI and WC, or their combinations, do not lead to optimal risk stratification for dyslipidemia in middle-age adults. Sex-specific adaptations are necessary, in particular by taking into account abdominal obesity in normal-weight men, post-menopausal age in women and regular smoking in both sexes.

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BACKGROUND: Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in immune genes have been associated with susceptibility to invasive mold infection (IMI) among hematopoietic stem cell but not solid-organ transplant (SOT) recipients. METHODS: Twenty-four SNPs from systematically selected genes were genotyped among 1101 SOT recipients (715 kidney transplant recipients, 190 liver transplant recipients, 102 lung transplant recipients, 79 heart transplant recipients, and 15 recipients of other transplants) from the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study. Association between SNPs and the end point were assessed by log-rank test and Cox regression models. Cytokine production upon Aspergillus stimulation was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from healthy volunteers and correlated with relevant genotypes. RESULTS: Mold colonization (n = 45) and proven/probable IMI (n = 26) were associated with polymorphisms in the genes encoding interleukin 1β (IL1B; rs16944; recessive mode, P = .001 for colonization and P = .00005 for IMI, by the log-rank test), interleukin 1 receptor antagonist (IL1RN; rs419598; P = .01 and P = .02, respectively), and β-defensin 1 (DEFB1; rs1800972; P = .001 and P = .0002, respectively). The associations with IL1B and DEFB1 remained significant in a multivariate regression model (P = .002 for IL1B rs16944; P = .01 for DEFB1 rs1800972). The presence of 2 copies of the rare allele of rs16944 or rs419598 was associated with reduced Aspergillus-induced interleukin 1β and tumor necrosis factor α secretion by PBMCs. CONCLUSIONS: Functional polymorphisms in IL1B and DEFB1 influence susceptibility to mold infection in SOT recipients. This observation may contribute to individual risk stratification.

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Donor PTX3 polymorphisms were shown to influence the risk of invasive aspergillosis among hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients. Here, we show that PTX3 polymorphisms are independent risk factors for invasive mold infections among 1101 solid organ transplant recipients, thereby strengthening their role in mold infection pathogenesis and patients' risk stratification.

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BACKGROUND: Pretransplant anti-HLA donor-specific antibodies (DSA) are recognized as a risk factor for acute antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) in kidney transplantation. The predictive value of C4d-fixing capability by DSA or of IgG DSA subclasses for acute AMR in the pretransplant setting has been recently studied. In addition DSA strength assessed by mean fluorescence intensity (MFI) may improve risk stratification. We aimed to analyze the relevance of preformed DSA and of DSA MFI values. METHODS: 280 consecutive patients with negative complement-dependent cytotoxicity crossmatches received a kidney transplant between 01/2008 and 03/2014. Sera were screened for the presence of DSA with a solid-phase assays on a Luminex flow analyzer, and the results were correlated with biopsy-proven acute AMR in the first year and survival. RESULTS: Pretransplant anti-HLA antibodies were present in 72 patients (25.7%) and 24 (8.6%) had DSA. There were 46 (16.4%) acute rejection episodes, 32 (11.4%) being cellular and 14 (5.0%) AMR. The incidence of acute AMR was higher in patients with pretransplant DSA (41.7%) than in those without (1.6%) (p<0.001). The median cumulative MFI (cMFI) of the group DSA+/AMR+ was 5680 vs 2208 in DSA+/AMR- (p=0.058). With univariate logistic regression a threshold value of 5280 cMFI was predictive for acute AMR. DSA cMFI's ability to predict AMR was also explored by ROC analysis. AUC was 0.728 and the best threshold was a cMFI of 4340. Importantly pretransplant DSA>5280 cMFI had a detrimental effect on 5-year graft survival. CONCLUSIONS: Preformed DSA cMFI values were clinically-relevant for the prediction of acute AMR and graft survival in kidney transplantation. A threshold of 4300-5300 cMFI was a significant outcome predictor.