2 resultados para Risk - Mathematical models

em Université de Lausanne, Switzerland


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BACKGROUND: Multiple risk prediction models have been validated in all-age patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI); however, they have not been validated specifically in the elderly. METHODS: We calculated the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) score, the logistic EuroSCORE, the AMIS (Acute Myocardial Infarction Swiss registry) score, and the SYNTAX (Synergy between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery) score in a consecutive series of 114 patients ≥75 years presenting with ACS and treated with PCI within 24 hours of hospital admission. Patients were stratified according to score tertiles and analysed retrospectively by comparing the lower/mid tertiles as an aggregate group with the higher tertile group. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Secondary endpoints were the composite of death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) at 30 days, and 1-year MACE-free survival. Model discrimination ability was assessed using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Thirty-day mortality was higher in the upper tertile compared with the aggregate lower/mid tertiles according to the logistic EuroSCORE (42% vs 5%; odds ratio [OR] = 14, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4-48; p <0.001; AUC = 0.79), the GRACE score (40% vs 4%; OR = 17, 95% CI = 4-64; p <0.001; AUC = 0.80), the AMIS score (40% vs 4%; OR = 16, 95% CI = 4-63; p <0.001; AUC = 0.80), and the SYNTAX score (37% vs 5%; OR = 11, 95% CI = 3-37; p <0.001; AUC = 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: In elderly patients presenting with ACS and referred to PCI within 24 hours of admission, the GRACE score, the EuroSCORE, the AMIS score, and the SYNTAX score predicted 30 day mortality. The predictive value of clinical scores was improved by using them in combination.

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Cerebral metabolism is compartmentalized between neurons and glia. Although glial glycolysis is thought to largely sustain the energetic requirements of neurotransmission while oxidative metabolism takes place mainly in neurons, this hypothesis is matter of debate. The compartmentalization of cerebral metabolic fluxes can be determined by (13)C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy upon infusion of (13)C-enriched compounds, especially glucose. Rats under light α-chloralose anesthesia were infused with [1,6-(13)C]glucose and (13)C enrichment in the brain metabolites was measured by (13)C NMR spectroscopy with high sensitivity and spectral resolution at 14.1 T. This allowed determining (13)C enrichment curves of amino acid carbons with high reproducibility and to reliably estimate cerebral metabolic fluxes (mean error of 8%). We further found that TCA cycle intermediates are not required for flux determination in mathematical models of brain metabolism. Neuronal tricarboxylic acid cycle rate (V(TCA)) and neurotransmission rate (V(NT)) were 0.45 ± 0.01 and 0.11 ± 0.01 μmol/g/min, respectively. Glial V(TCA) was found to be 38 ± 3% of total cerebral oxidative metabolism, accounting for more than half of neuronal oxidative metabolism. Furthermore, glial anaplerotic pyruvate carboxylation rate (V(PC)) was 0.069 ± 0.004 μmol/g/min, i.e., 25 ± 1% of the glial TCA cycle rate. These results support a role of glial cells as active partners of neurons during synaptic transmission beyond glycolytic metabolism.