Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Deer as a potential wildlife reservoir for Parachlamydia species.

Wildlife populations represent an important reservoir for emerging pathogens and trans-boundary livestock diseases. However, detailed information relating to the occurrence of endemic pathogens such as those of the order Chlamydiales in such populations is lacking. During the hunting season of 2008, 863 samples (including blood, conjunctival swabs, internal organs and faeces) were collected in the Eastern Swiss Alps from 99 free-living red deer (Cervus elaphus) and 64 free-living roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and tested using ELISA, PCR and immunohistochemistry for members of the family Chlamydiaceae and the genus Parachlamydia. Parachlamydia spp. were detected in the conjunctival swabs, faeces and internal organs of both species of deer (2.4% positive, with a further 29.5% inconclusive). The very low occurrence of Chlamydiaceae (2.5%) was in line with serological data (0.7% seroprevalence for Chlamydia abortus). Further investigations are required to elucidate the zoonotic potential, pathogenicity, and distribution of Parachlamydia spp. in wild ruminants.

Assessment of construct validity of a virtual reality laparoscopy simulator.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to assess whether virtual reality (VR) can discriminate between the skills of novices and intermediate-level laparoscopic surgical trainees (construct validity), and whether the simulator assessment correlates with an expert's evaluation of performance. METHODS: Three hundred and seven (307) participants of the 19th-22nd Davos International Gastrointestinal Surgery Workshops performed the clip-and-cut task on the Xitact LS 500 VR simulator (Xitact S.A., Morges, Switzerland). According to their previous experience in laparoscopic surgery, participants were assigned to the basic course (BC) or the intermediate course (IC). Objective performance parameters recorded by the simulator were compared to the standardized assessment by the course instructors during laparoscopic pelvitrainer and conventional surgery exercises. RESULTS: IC participants performed significantly better on the VR simulator than BC participants for the task completion time as well as the economy of movement of the right instrument, not the left instrument. Participants with maximum scores in the pelvitrainer cholecystectomy task performed the VR trial significantly faster, compared to those who scored less. In the conventional surgery task, a significant difference between those who scored the maximum and those who scored less was found not only for task completion time, but also for economy of movement of the right instrument. CONCLUSIONS: VR simulation provides a valid assessment of psychomotor skills and some basic aspects of spatial skills in laparoscopic surgery. Furthermore, VR allows discrimination between trainees with different levels of experience in laparoscopic surgery establishing construct validity for the Xitact LS 500 clip-and-cut task. Virtual reality may become the gold standard to assess and monitor surgical skills in laparoscopic surgery.

Insights into low fish mercury bioaccumulation in a mercury-contaminated reservoir, Guizhou, China.

We examined Hg biogeochemistry in Baihua Reservoir, a system affected by industrial wastewater containing mercury (Hg). As expected, we found high levels of total Hg (THg, 664-7421 ng g(-1)) and monomethylmercury (MMHg, 3-21 ng g(-1)) in the surface sediments (0-10 cm). In the water column, both THg and MMHg showed strong vertical variations with higher concentrations in the anoxic layer (>4m) than in the oxic layer (0-4 m), which was most pronounced for the dissolved MMHg (p < 0.001). However, mercury levels in biota samples (mostly cyprinid fish) were one order of magnitude lower than common regulatory values (i.e. 0.3-0.5 mg kg(-1)) for human consumption. We identified three main reasons to explain the low fish Hg bioaccumulation: disconnection of the aquatic food web from the high MMHg zone, simple food web structures, and biodilution effect at the base of the food chain in this eutrophic reservoir.

Development and use of a high-fidelity simulator for fetal endotracheal balloon occlusion (FETO) insertion and removal.

Objectives The objective of this article is to describe the development of an anatomically accurate simulator in order to aid the training of a perinatal team in the insertion and removal of a fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion (FETO) balloon in the management of prenatally diagnosed congenital diaphragmatic hernia. Methods An experienced perinatal team collaborated with a medical sculptor to design a fetal model for the FETO procedure. Measurements derived from 28-week fetal magnetic resonance imaging were used in the development of an anatomically precise simulated airway within a silicone rubber preterm fetal model. Clinician feedback was then used to guide multiple iterations of the model with serial improvements in the anatomic accuracy of the simulator airway. Results An appropriately sized preterm fetal mannequin with a high-fidelity airway was developed. The team used this model to develop surgical skills with balloon insertion, and removal, and to prepare the team for an integrated response to unanticipated delivery with the FETO balloon still in situ. Conclusions This fetal mannequin aided in the ability of a fetal therapy unit to offer the FETO procedure at their center for the first time. This model may be of benefit to other perinatal centers planning to offer this procedure.

Access to a simulator is not enough: the benefits of virtual reality training based on peer-group-derived benchmarks--a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Virtual reality (VR) simulators are widely used to familiarize surgical novices with laparoscopy, but VR training methods differ in efficacy. In the present trial, self-controlled basic VR training (SC-training) was tested against training based on peer-group-derived benchmarks (PGD-training). METHODS: First, novice laparoscopic residents were randomized into a SC group (n = 34), and a group using PGD-benchmarks (n = 34) for basic laparoscopic training. After completing basic training, both groups performed 60 VR laparoscopic cholecystectomies for performance analysis. Primary endpoints were simulator metrics; secondary endpoints were program adherence, trainee motivation, and training efficacy. RESULTS: Altogether, 66 residents completed basic training, and 3,837 of 3,960 (96.8 %) cholecystectomies were available for analysis. Course adherence was good, with only two dropouts, both in the SC-group. The PGD-group spent more time and repetitions in basic training until the benchmarks were reached and subsequently showed better performance in the readout cholecystectomies: Median time (gallbladder extraction) showed significant differences of 520 s (IQR 354-738 s) in SC-training versus 390 s (IQR 278-536 s) in the PGD-group (p < 0.001) and 215 s (IQR 175-276 s) in experts, respectively. Path length of the right instrument also showed significant differences, again with the PGD-training group being more efficient. CONCLUSIONS: Basic VR laparoscopic training based on PGD benchmarks with external assessment is superior to SC training, resulting in higher trainee motivation and better performance in simulated laparoscopic cholecystectomies. We recommend such a basic course based on PGD benchmarks before advancing to more elaborate VR training.

Numerical simulation of ambient seismic wavefield modification caused by pore-fluid effects in an oil reservoir

We have modeled numerically the seismic response of a poroelastic inclusion with properties applicable to an oil reservoir that interacts with an ambient wavefield. The model includes wave-induced fluid flow caused by pressure differences between mesoscopic-scale (i.e., in the order of centimeters to meters) heterogeneities. We used a viscoelastic approximation on the macroscopic scale to implement the attenuation and dispersion resulting from this mesoscopic-scale theory in numerical simulations of wave propagation on the kilometer scale. This upscaling method includes finite-element modeling of wave-induced fluid flow to determine effective seismic properties of the poroelastic media, such as attenuation of P- and S-waves. The fitted, equivalent, viscoelastic behavior is implemented in finite-difference wave propagation simulations. With this two-stage process, we model numerically the quasi-poroelastic wave-propagation on the kilometer scale and study the impact of fluid properties and fluid saturation on the modeled seismic amplitudes. In particular, we addressed the question of whether poroelastic effects within an oil reservoir may be a plausible explanation for low-frequency ambient wavefield modifications observed at oil fields in recent years. Our results indicate that ambient wavefield modification is expected to occur for oil reservoirs exhibiting high attenuation. Whether or not such modifications can be detected in surface recordings, however, will depend on acquisition design and noise mitigation processing as well as site-specific conditions, such as the geologic complexity of the subsurface, the nature of the ambient wavefield, and the amount of surface noise.

Development of an erythropoietin prescription simulator to improve abilities for the prescription of erythropoietin stimulating agents: is it feasible?

BACKGROUND: The increasing use of erythropoietins with long half-lives and the tendency to lengthen the administration interval to monthly injections call for raising awareness on the pharmacokinetics and risks of new erythropoietin stimulating agents (ESA). Their pharmacodynamic complexity and individual variability limit the possibility of attaining comprehensive clinical experience. In order to help physicians acquiring prescription abilities, we have built a prescription computer model to be used both as a simulator and education tool. METHODS: The pharmacokinetic computer model was developed using Visual Basic on Excel and tested with 3 different ESA half-lives (24, 48 and 138 hours) and 2 administration intervals (weekly vs. monthly). Two groups of 25 nephrologists were exposed to the six randomised combinations of half-life and administration interval. They were asked to achieve and maintain, as precisely as possible, the haemoglobin target of 11-12 g/dL in a simulated naïve patient. Each simulation was repeated twice, with or without randomly generated bleeding episodes. RESULTS: The simulation using an ESA with a half-life of 138 hours, administered monthly, compared to the other combinations of half-lives and administration intervals, showed an overshooting tendency (percentages of Hb values > 13 g/dL 15.8 ± 18.3 vs. 6.9 ± 12.2; P < 0.01), which was quickly corrected with experience. The prescription ability appeared to be optimal with a 24 hour half-life and weekly administration (ability score indexing values in the target 1.52 ± 0.70 vs. 1.24 ± 0.37; P < 0.05). The monthly prescription interval, as suggested in the literature, was accompanied by less therapeutic adjustments (4.9 ± 2.2 vs. 8.2 ± 4.9; P < 0.001); a direct correlation between haemoglobin variability and number of therapy modifications was found (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Computer-based simulations can be a useful tool for improving ESA prescription abilities among nephrologists by raising awareness about the pharmacokinetic characteristics of the various ESAs and recognizing the factors that influence haemoglobin variability.

Accurate and efficient simulation of multiphase flow in a heterogeneous reservoir by using error estimate and control in the multiscale finite-volume framework

The multiscale finite-volume (MSFV) method is designed to reduce the computational cost of elliptic and parabolic problems with highly heterogeneous anisotropic coefficients. The reduction is achieved by splitting the original global problem into a set of local problems (with approximate local boundary conditions) coupled by a coarse global problem. It has been shown recently that the numerical errors in MSFV results can be reduced systematically with an iterative procedure that provides a conservative velocity field after any iteration step. The iterative MSFV (i-MSFV) method can be obtained with an improved (smoothed) multiscale solution to enhance the localization conditions, with a Krylov subspace method [e.g., the generalized-minimal-residual (GMRES) algorithm] preconditioned by the MSFV system, or with a combination of both. In a multiphase-flow system, a balance between accuracy and computational efficiency should be achieved by finding a minimum number of i-MSFV iterations (on pressure), which is necessary to achieve the desired accuracy in the saturation solution. In this work, we extend the i-MSFV method to sequential implicit simulation of time-dependent problems. To control the error of the coupled saturation/pressure system, we analyze the transport error caused by an approximate velocity field. We then propose an error-control strategy on the basis of the residual of the pressure equation. At the beginning of simulation, the pressure solution is iterated until a specified accuracy is achieved. To minimize the number of iterations in a multiphase-flow problem, the solution at the previous timestep is used to improve the localization assumption at the current timestep. Additional iterations are used only when the residual becomes larger than a specified threshold value. Numerical results show that only a few iterations on average are necessary to improve the MSFV results significantly, even for very challenging problems. Therefore, the proposed adaptive strategy yields efficient and accurate simulation of multiphase flow in heterogeneous porous media.

Reservoir compensation releases : impact on the macroinvertebrate community of the Derwent River, Northumberland, UK-A longitudinal

River regulation for the purposes of public water supply causes the flow regime downstream of a dam to change. Traditionally, in the UK, such regulation was accompanied by requirements for reservoir releases to compensate downstream water users (e.g. industry) for the loss of natural flow (compensation flows). In this article, we compare a unique pre-impoundment macroinvertebrate data set for a regulated upland river with survey data post-impoundment. This allows a longitudinal assessment of the response of the system to regulation. The Derwent River, Northumberland, was impounded in 1966. Impacts on the hydrological regime were quantified by comparing long-term hydrographs, flow duration curves, flow ranges and flashiness indices for the pre-impoundment and post-impoundment periods. The comparison of changes in macroinvertebrate richness and diversity post-impoundment showed that the change in flow regime has had limited effect on the ecological community structure. The flow regime of the Derwent River has become less flashy with fewer extreme events, and the richness and the diversity of macroinvertebrates have, in some cases, increased and at worst have not deteriorated. We suggest that this reflects the strict compensation regime, which has guaranteed minimum flows at all times. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A realistic Computed Tomography simulator for small motion analysis of cerebral aneurysms.

This paper describes a realistic simulator for the Computed Tomography (CT) scan process for motion analysis. In fact, we are currently developing a new framework to find small motion from the CT scan. In order to prove the fidelity of this framework, or potentially any other algorithm, we present in this paper a simulator to simulate the whole CT acquisition process with a priori known parameters. In other words, it is a digital phantom for the motion analysis that can be used to compare the results of any related algorithm with the ground-truth realistic analytical model. Such a simulator can be used by the community to test different algorithms in the biomedical imaging domain. The most important features of this simulator are its different considerations to simulate the best the real acquisition process and its generality.

Long-term antiretroviral treatment initiated at primary HIV-1 infection affects the size, composition, and decay kinetics of the reservoir of HIV-1-infected CD4 T cells.

Initiation of antiretroviral therapy during the earliest stages of HIV-1 infection may limit the seeding of a long-lasting viral reservoir, but long-term effects of early antiretroviral treatment initiation remain unknown. Here, we analyzed immunological and virological characteristics of nine patients who started antiretroviral therapy at primary HIV-1 infection and remained on suppressive treatment for >10 years; patients with similar treatment duration but initiation of suppressive therapy during chronic HIV-1 infection served as controls. We observed that independently of the timing of treatment initiation, HIV-1 DNA in CD4 T cells decayed primarily during the initial 3 to 4 years of treatment. However, in patients who started antiretroviral therapy in early infection, this decay occurred faster and was more pronounced, leading to substantially lower levels of cell-associated HIV-1 DNA after long-term treatment. Despite this smaller size, the viral CD4 T cell reservoir in persons with early treatment initiation consisted more dominantly of the long-lasting central-memory and T memory stem cells. HIV-1-specific T cell responses remained continuously detectable during antiretroviral therapy, independently of the timing of treatment initiation. Together, these data suggest that early HIV-1 treatment initiation, even when continued for >10 years, is unlikely to lead to viral eradication, but the presence of low viral reservoirs and durable HIV-1 T cell responses may make such patients good candidates for future interventional studies aiming at HIV-1 eradication and cure. IMPORTANCE: Antiretroviral therapy can effectively suppress HIV-1 replication to undetectable levels; however, HIV-1 can persist despite treatment, and viral replication rapidly rebounds when treatment is discontinued. This is mainly due to the presence of latently infected CD4 T cells, which are not susceptible to antiretroviral drugs. Starting treatment in the earliest stages of HIV-1 infection can limit the number of these latently infected cells, raising the possibility that these viral reservoirs are naturally eliminated if suppressive antiretroviral treatment is continued for extremely long periods of time. Here, we analyzed nine patients who started on antiretroviral therapy within the earliest weeks of the disease and continued treatment for more than 10 years. Our data show that early treatment accelerated the decay of infected CD4 T cells and led to very low residual levels of detectable HIV-1 after long-term therapy, levels that were otherwise detectable in patients who are able to maintain a spontaneous, drug-free control of HIV-1 replication. Thus, long-term antiretroviral treatment started during early infection cannot eliminate HIV-1, but the reduced reservoirs of HIV-1 infected cells in such patients may increase their chances to respond to clinical interventions aiming at inducing a drug-free remission of HIV-1 infection.

Deposits of the sandy braided South Saskatchewan River: Implications for the use of modern analogs in reconstructing channel dimensions in reservoir characterization

Estimation of the dimensions of fluvial geobodies from core data is a notoriously difficult problem in reservoir modeling. To try and improve such estimates and, hence, reduce uncertainty in geomodels, data on dunes, unit bars, cross-bar channels, and compound bars and their associated deposits are presented herein from the sand-bed braided South Saskatchewan River, Canada. These data are used to test models that relate the scale of the formative bed forms to the dimensions of the preserved deposits and, therefore, provide an insight as to how such deposits may be preserved over geologic time. The preservation of bed-form geometry is quantified by comparing the Alluvial architecture above and below the maximum erosion depth of the modem channel deposits. This comparison shows that there is no significant difference in the mean set thickness of dune cross-strata above and below the basal erosion surface of the contemporary channel, thus suggesting that dimensional relationships between dune deposits and the formative bed-form dimensions are likely to be valid from both recent and older deposits. The data show that estimates of mean bankfull flow depth derived from dune, unit bar, and cross-bar channel deposits are all very similar. Thus, the use of all these metrics together can provide a useful check that all components and scales of the alluvial architecture have been identified correctly when building reservoir models. The data also highlight several practical issues with identifying and applying data relating to cross-strata. For example, the deposits of unit bars were found to be severely truncated in length and width, with only approximately 10% of the mean bar-form length remaining, and thus making identification in section difficult. For similar reasons, the deposits of compound bars were found to be especially difficult to recognize, and hence, estimates of channel depth based on this method may be problematic. Where only core data are available (i.e., no outcrop data exist), formative flow depths are suggested to be best reconstructed using cross-strata formed by dunes. However, theoretical relationships between the distribution of set thicknesses and formative dune height are found to result in slight overestimates of the latter and, hence, mean bankfull flow depths derived from these measurements. This article illustrates that the preservation of fluvial cross-strata and, thus, the paleohydraulic inferences that can be drawn from them, are a function of the ratio of the size and migration rate of bed forms and the time scale of aggradation and channel migration. These factors must thus be considered when deciding on appropriate length:thickness ratios for the purposes of object-based modeling in reservoir characterization.