Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Analysis of a finite volume method for a cross-diffusion model in population dynamics

The main goal of this paper is to propose a convergent finite volume method for a reactionâeuro"diffusion system with cross-diffusion. First, we sketch an existence proof for a class of cross-diffusion systems. Then the standard two-point finite volume fluxes are used in combination with a nonlinear positivity-preserving approximation of the cross-diffusion coefficients. Existence and uniqueness of the approximate solution are addressed, and it is also shown that the scheme converges to the corresponding weak solution for the studied model. Furthermore, we provide a stability analysis to study pattern-formation phenomena, and we perform two-dimensional numerical examples which exhibit formation of nonuniform spatial patterns. From the simulations it is also found that experimental rates of convergence are slightly below second order. The convergence proof uses two ingredients of interest for various applications, namely the discrete Sobolev embedding inequalities with general boundary conditions and a space-time $L^1$ compactness argument that mimics the compactness lemma due to Kruzhkov. The proofs of these results are given in the Appendix.

Ecological change predicts population dynamics and genetic diversity over 120 000 years.

While ecological effects on short-term population dynamics are well understood, their effects over millennia are difficult to demonstrate and convincing evidence is scant. Using coalescent methods, we analysed past population dynamics of three lizard species (Psammodromus hispanicus, P. edwardsianus, P. occidentalis) and linked the results with climate change data covering the same temporal horizon (120 000 years). An increase in population size over time was observed in two species, and in P. occidentalis, no change was observed. Temporal changes in temperature seasonality and the maximum temperature of the warmest month were congruent with changes in population dynamics observed for the three species and both variables affected population density, either directly or indirectly (via a life-history trait). These results constitute the first solid link between ecological change and long-term population dynamics. The results moreover suggest that ecological change leaves genetic signatures that can be retrospectively traced, providing evidence that ecological change is a crucial driver of genetic diversity and speciation.

Population demography and the evolution of helping behaviors.

Limited dispersal may favor the evolution of helping behaviors between relatives as it increases their relatedness, and it may inhibit such evolution as it increases local competition between these relatives. Here, we explore one way out of this dilemma: if the helping behavior allows groups to expand in size, then the kin-competition pressure opposing its evolution can be greatly reduced. We explore the effects of two kinds of stochasticity allowing for such deme expansion. First, we study the evolution of helping under environmental stochasticity that may induce complete patch extinction. Helping evolves if it results in a decrease in the probability of extinction or if it enhances the rate of patch recolonization through propagules formed by fission of nonextinct groups. This mode of dispersal is indeed commonly found in social species. Second, we consider the evolution of helping in the presence of demographic stochasticity. When fecundity is below its value maximizing deme size (undersaturation), helping evolves, but under stringent conditions unless positive density dependence (Allee effect) interferes with demographic stochasticity. When fecundity is above its value maximizing deme size (oversaturation), helping may also evolve, but only if it reduces negative density-dependent competition.

Mass effects mediate coexistence in competing shrews.

Recent developments in metacommunity theory have raised awareness that processes occurring at regional scales might interfere with local dynamics and affect conditions for the local coexistence of competing species. Four main paradigms are recognized in this context (namely, neutral, patch-dynamics, species-sorting, and mass-effect), which differ according to the role assigned to ecological or life-history differences among competing species, as well as to the relative time scale of regional vs. local dynamics. We investigated the patterns of regional and local coexistence of two species of shrews (Crocidura russula and Sorex coronatus) sharing a similar diet (generalist insectivores) over four generations, in a spatially structured habitat at the altitudinal limit of their distributions. Local populations were small, and regional dynamics were strong, with high rates of extinction and recolonization. Niche analysis revealed significant habitat differentiation on a few important variables, including temperature and availability of winter resting sites. In sites suitable for both species, we found instances of local coexistence with no evidence of competitive exclusion. Patterns of temporal succession did not differ from random, with no suggestion of a colonization-competition trade-off. Altogether, our data provide support for the mass-effect paradigm, where regional coexistence is mediated by specialization on different habitat types, and local coexistence by rescue effects from source sites. The strong regional dynamics and demographic stochasticity, together with high dispersal rates, presumably contributed to mass effects by overriding local differences in specific competitive abilities.

Introduction of Trojan sex chromosomes to boost population growth.

Conservation programs that deal with small or declining populations often aim at a rapid increase of population size to above-critical levels in order to avoid the negative effects of demographic stochasticity and genetic problems like inbreeding depression, fixation of deleterious alleles, or a general loss of genetic variability and hence of evolutionary potential. In some situations, population growth is determined by the number of females available for reproduction, and manipulation of family sex ratios towards more daughters has beneficial effects. If sex determination is predominantly genetic but environmentally reversible, as is the case in many amphibia, reptiles, and fish, Trojan sex chromosomes could be introduced into populations in order to change sex ratios towards more females. We analyse the possible consequences for the introduction of XX-males (XX individuals that have been changed to phenotypic males in a XY/XX sex determination system) and ZW males, WW males, or WW females (in a ZZ/ZW sex determination system). We find that the introduction of WW individuals can be most effective for an increase of population growth, especially if the induced sex change has little or no effect on viability.

Strong reciprocity or strong ferocity? A population genetic view of the evolution of altruistic punishment.

Strong reciprocity, defined as a predisposition to help others and to punish those that are not helping, has been proposed as a potent force leading to the evolution of cooperation and altruism. However, the conditions under which strong reciprocity might be favored are not clear. Here we investigate the selective pressure on strong reciprocity by letting both limited dispersal (i.e., spatial structure) and recombination between helping and punishment jointly determine the evolutionary dynamics of strong reciprocity. Our analytical model suggests that when helping and punishment are perfectly linked traits (no recombination occurring between them), strong reciprocity can spread even when the initial frequency of strong reciprocators is close to 0 in the population (i.e., a rare mutant can invade). By contrast, our results indicate that when recombination can occur between helping and punishment (i.e., both traits coevolve) and is stronger than selection, punishment is likely to invade a population of defectors only when it gives a direct fitness benefit to the actor. Overall, our results delineate the conditions under which strong reciprocity is selected for in a spatially structured population and highlight that the forces behind its evolution involves kinship (be it genetic or cultural).

Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming.

Species range shifts in response to climate and land use change are commonly forecasted with species distribution models based on species occurrence or abundance data. Although appealing, these models ignore the genetic structure of species, and the fact that different populations might respond in different ways because of adaptation to their environment. Here, we introduced ancestry distribution models, that is, statistical models of the spatial distribution of ancestry proportions, for forecasting intra-specific changes based on genetic admixture instead of species occurrence data. Using multi-locus genotypes and extensive geographic coverage of distribution data across the European Alps, we applied this approach to 20 alpine plant species considering a global increase in temperature from 0.25 to 4 °C. We forecasted the magnitudes of displacement of contact zones between plant populations potentially adapted to warmer environments and other populations. While a global trend of movement in a north-east direction was predicted, the magnitude of displacement was species-specific. For a temperature increase of 2 °C, contact zones were predicted to move by 92 km on average (minimum of 5 km, maximum of 212 km) and by 188 km for an increase of 4 °C (minimum of 11 km, maximum of 393 km). Intra-specific turnover-measuring the extent of change in global population genetic structure-was generally found to be moderate for 2 °C of temperature warming. For 4 °C of warming, however, the models indicated substantial intra-specific turnover for ten species. These results illustrate that, in spite of unavoidable simplifications, ancestry distribution models open new perspectives to forecast population genetic changes within species and complement more traditional distribution-based approaches.

Low dispersing species : population genetic processes in space and time : the genus "Trochulus" (Gastropoda: Hygromiidae) as a case study

RÉSUMÉ Une espèce est rarement composée d'une population unique. Parce que les individus ont des capacités de dispersion limitées et que les paysages sont des mosaïques d'habitats, la plupart des espèces sont plutôt composées de sous-populations connectées par la migration. Cette variation spatiale influence directement la distribution de la variabilité génétique dans et entre les populations. Durant ce travail, nous avons abordé certains des processus populationnels qui ont joué un rôle supposé dans l'apparition de nouvelles espèces au sein du genre Trochulus. Plus précisément, nous avons tenté d'évaluer les impacts respectifs de l'isolement passé (facteurs historiques) et présent (facteurs locaux). Nous avons d'abord pu montrer que les faibles capacités de dispersion des escargots terrestres ont directement influencé leur histoire évolutive à toutes les échelles spatiales et temporelles. En réduisant l'effet homogénéisant de la migration, une faible dispersion maintient dans les populations les traces génétiques d'évènements passés. A l'échelle de la distribution globale de Trochulus villosus, ces traces ont permis de reconstruire une histoire faite d'isolements et d'expansions de populations. En combinant des données génétiques avec une modélisation de la niche climatique passée, il a été possible de proposer un scénario significativement meilleur que toutes les hypothèses alternatives que nous avons testées. A l'échelle locale par contre, l'héritage historique est difficile à distinguer de la dynamique actuelle. Ce fut le cas des lignées mitochondriales du complexe sericeus-hispidus : les deux principales lignées étaient phylogénétiquement éloignées, avaient eu des démographies passées différentes et corrélaient avec des différences morphologiques. D'un autre côté, le flux de gène nucléaire était fort, contredisant l'idée de deux espèces cryptiques isolées reproductivement. Pour pouvoir conclure à la présence ou non de deux espèces, il nous a manqué des informations locales sur la dynamique des populations et les conditions écologiques que l'on trouve dans la région d'étude. Enfin, nous avons pu souligner que la connectivité entre populations d'escargots est soumise à la qualité des habitats et à leur organisation spatiale. Les escargots sont dépendants d'un habitat et s'y adaptent, comme l'indiquent la présence de «poils » uniquement sur la coquille d'espèces vivant dans des habitats humides ou la corrélation entre morphologie et habitat au sein du complexe sericeus-hispidus. Logiquement donc, les escargots migrent préférentiellement au travers d'habitats favorables comme l'a montré la réduction de flux de gènes au travers des prairies chez T. villosus (une espèce forestière). De ces données, nous pouvons supposer que les populations d'escargots en particulier, et des espèces à faible dispersion en général, ont de fortes chances d'être affectées par les changements climatiques, avec de probables implications pour leurs histoires évolutives. SUMMARY : Species rarely consists in a single population. Because individuals have limited dispersal abilities, because landscapes are habitat patchworks, most species are made of several subpopulations connected by migration. This spatial variation has consequences on the distribution of genetic diversity within and between populations, creating a structure among the populations. During the present work, we investigated some of the population processes assumed to have played an important role on the speciation within the genus Trochulus. More specifically, we questioned the respective impacts of past (historical factors) or present (local factors) population isolations. We first could show that the poor dispersal abilities of land snails have had profound impacts on their evolutionary histories at all spatial and temporal scales. Low dispersal maintains a strong signature of past events in the populations by minimising the homogenising effects of geneflow. At the scale of Trochulus villosus global distribution, they allowed to retrieve the detailed history of this species population isolations and expansions. Combining a large genetic dataset with paleo-climatic niche modelling ended up with a historical scenario significantly better than all traditional alternatives we tested. At local scale on the contrary, past events become difficult to tease apart from ongoing processes. This was the case for the divergent mitochondria) lineages within the sericeus-hispidus complex: the two principal lineages appeared to be phylogenetically distant, to have experienced different demographic histories and to correlate with morphological differences. On the other hand, nuclear (present day) geneflow was high, contradicting the idea of two reproductively isolated cryptic species. Information on the local population dynamics and environmental conditions are lacking to be able to decide whether past isolation has indeed resulted here in new species. Finally, we emphasised the importance of the habitat types present in a landscape as well as their spatial organisation for the population connectivity of land snails. These species are tightly dependent on a habitat and adapt to it as shown by thé occurrence of hair-like structures only in species living in humid environments or by the correlation between shell morphology and habitat in the sericeus-hispidus complex. As a result, land snails preferentially migrate through favourable habitats: Trochulus villosus, a forest species, had its geneflow significantly reduced across meadows. From these data, we can hypothesise that the populations of land snails in particular and of low dispersing species in general are likely to be strongly affected by the ongoing climate changes, with potential major consequences on their evolutionary histories.

Habitat-quality effects on metapopulation dynamics in greater white-toothed shrews, Crocidura russula.

The effects of patch size and isolation on metapopulation dynamics have received wide empirical support and theoretical formalization. By contrast, the effects of patch quality seem largely underinvestigated, partly due to technical difficulties in properly assessing quality. Here we combine habitat-quality modeling with four years of demographic monitoring in a metapopulation of greater white-toothed shrews (Crocidura russula) to investigate the role of patch quality on metapopulation processes. Together, local patch quality and connectivity significantly enhanced local population sizes and occupancy rates (R2 = 14% and 19%, respectively). Accounting for the quality of patches connected to the focal one and acting as potential sources improved slightly the model explanatory power for local population sizes, pointing to significant source-sink dynamics. Local habitat quality, in interaction with connectivity, also increased colonization rate (R2 = 28%), suggesting the ability of immigrants to target high-quality patches. Overall, patterns were best explained when assuming a mean dispersal distance of 800 m, a realistic value for the species under study. Our results thus provide evidence that patch quality, in interaction with connectivity, may affect major demographic processes.

Maladies cardiovasculaires: une cible de prévention pour contrecarrer les effets de l'évolution démographique [Cardiovascular diseases: a target for prevention to thwart the effects of population aging]

The prevalence of cardiovascular diseases is high in the old age. These conditions have a negative impact on the quality of life and are associated with a high risk of disability. A marked increase in the number of affected individuals is likely, in coming decades, with population aging. Primary cardiovascular prevention, but also an early recognition of subclinical heart diseases and secondary and tertiary prevention will be of up most importance for individuals (quality of life) and for societies (burden of functional impairments) as the baby-boom generation reaches retirement age.

Population consequences of environmental sex reversal.

When sex determination in a species is predominantly genetic but environmentally reversible, exposure to (anthropogenic) changes in the environment can lead to shifts in a population's sex ratio. Such scenarios may be common in many fishes and amphibians, yet their ramifications remain largely unexplored. We used a simple model to study the (short-term) population consequences of environmental sex reversal (ESR). We examined the effects on sex ratios, sex chromosome frequencies, and population growth and persistence after exposure to environmental forces with feminizing or masculinizing tendencies. When environmental feminization was strong, X chromosomes were driven to extinction. Analogously, extinction of normally male-linked genetic factors (e.g., Y chromosomes) was caused by continuous environmental masculinization. Although moderate feminization was beneficial for population growth in the absence of large viability effects, our results suggest that the consequences of ESR are generally negative in terms of population size and the persistence of sex chromosomes. Extreme sex ratios resulting from high rates of ESR also reduced effective population sizes considerably. This may limit any evolutionary response to the deleterious effects of ESR. Our findings suggest that ESR changes population growth and sex ratios in some counter-intuitive ways and can change the predominant factor in sex determination from genetic to fully environmental, often within only a few tens of generations. Populations that lose genetic sex determination may quickly go extinct if the environmental forces that cause sex reversal cease.

Population viscosity can promote the evolution of altruistic sterile helpers and eusociality.

Because it increases relatedness between interacting individuals, population viscosity has been proposed to favour the evolution of altruistic helping. However, because it increases local competition between relatives, population viscosity may also act as a brake for the evolution of helping behaviours. In simple models, the kin selected fecundity benefits of helping are exactly cancelled out by the cost of increased competition between relatives when helping occurs after dispersal. This result has lead to the widespread view, especially among people working with social organisms, that special conditions are required for the evolution of altruism. Here, we re-examine this result by constructing a simple population genetic model where we analyse whether the evolution of a sterile worker caste (i.e. an extreme case of altruism) can be selected for by limited dispersal. We show that a sterile worker caste can be selected for even under the simplest life-cycle assumptions. This has relevant consequences for our understanding of the evolution of altruism in social organisms, as many social insects are characterized by limited dispersal and significant genetic population structure.

Statistical properties of population differentiation estimators under stepwise mutation in a finite island model.

Microsatellite loci mutate at an extremely high rate and are generally thought to evolve through a stepwise mutation model. Several differentiation statistics taking into account the particular mutation scheme of the microsatellite have been proposed. The most commonly used is R(ST) which is independent of the mutation rate under a generalized stepwise mutation model. F(ST) and R(ST) are commonly reported in the literature, but often differ widely. Here we compare their statistical performances using individual-based simulations of a finite island model. The simulations were run under different levels of gene flow, mutation rates, population number and sizes. In addition to the per locus statistical properties, we compare two ways of combining R(ST) over loci. Our simulations show that even under a strict stepwise mutation model, no statistic is best overall. All estimators suffer to different extents from large bias and variance. While R(ST) better reflects population differentiation in populations characterized by very low gene-exchange, F(ST) gives better estimates in cases of high levels of gene flow. The number of loci sampled (12, 24, or 96) has only a minor effect on the relative performance of the estimators under study. For all estimators there is a striking effect of the number of samples, with the differentiation estimates showing very odd distributions for two samples.