Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Being old-for-grade and drug use: not such a clear connection.

AIM: To assess whether repeating a grade was associated with drug use among adolescents after controlling for personal, family and school-related variables, and whether there were differences between students in mandatory and post-mandatory school. METHODS: Data were drawn from the Catalonia Adolescent Health Survey, a cross-sectional study of in-school adolescents aged 14-19 y. The index group included 366 subjects who were repeating a grade at the time the survey was carried out (old-for-grade, OFG). A control group matched by gender, school and being one grade ahead was randomly chosen among all the subjects who had never repeated a grade. All statistically significant variables in the bivariate analysis were included in a multivariate analysis. In a second step, all analyses were repeated for students in mandatory (14-16 y) and post-mandatory (17-19 y) school. RESULTS: After controlling for background variables, subjects in the index group were more likely to perceive that most of their peers were using synthetic drugs and to have ever used them, to have bad grades and a worse relationship with their teachers. OFG students in mandatory school were more likely to have divorced parents, bad grades and have ever used synthetic drugs, whereas they were less likely to be regular drinkers. OFG students in post-mandatory school were more likely to have below average grades, to be regular smokers and to perceive that most of their peers used synthetic drugs. CONCLUSIONS: When background variables are taken into consideration, the relationship between repeating a grade and drug use is not so clear. By increasing the familial and academic support of adolescents with academic underachievement, we could reduce their drug consumption.

Sex, drugs and chronic illness: health behaviours among chronically ill youth.

BACKGROUND: A growing body of literature indicates that adolescents with chronic conditions are as likely, or more likely, to take risky behaviours than their healthy peers. The objective of this research was to assess whether adolescents with chronic illness in Catalonia differ from their healthy peers in risk-taking behaviour. METHODS: Data were drawn from the Catalonia Adolescent Health database, a survey including a random school-based sample of 6952 young people, aged 14-19 years. The index group (IG) included 665 adolescents (450 females) reporting several chronic conditions. The comparison group (CG) comprised 6287 healthy adolescents (3306 females). Personal, family and school-related variables were analysed to ensure comparability between groups. Sexual behaviour, drug use (tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, cocaine and synthetic drugs) and perception of drug use among peers and in school were compared. Analysis was carried out separately by gender. chi-square, Fisher's and Student's tests were used to compare categorical and continuous variables. RESULTS: The prevalence of chronic conditions was 9.6%, with females showing a higher prevalence than males. The IG showed similar or higher rates of sexual intercourse and risky sexual behaviour. For most studied drugs, IG males reported slightly lower rates of use than CG males, while IG females showed higher rates for every drug studied. No differences were found in the perceptions of drug use among peers or in their school. CONCLUSIONS: Similar to previous research, chronically ill adolescents in our sample are as likely, or more likely, to take risky behaviours than their healthy counterparts and should receive the same anticipatory guidance.