The ghost of past species occurrence: improving species distribution models for presence-only data

1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.

Extreme genetic differentiation among the remnant populations of marble trout (Salmo marmoratus) in Slovenia.

Populations of the marble trout (Salmo marmoratus) have declined critically due to introgression by brown trout (Salmo trutta) strains. In order to define strategies for long-term conservation, we examined the genetic structure of the 8 known pure populations using 15 microsatellite loci. The analyses reveal extraordinarily strong genetic differentiation among populations separated by < 15 km, and extremely low levels of intrapopulation genetic variability. As natural recolonization seems highly unlikely, appropriate management and conservation strategies should comprise the reintroduction of pure populations from mixed stocks (translocation) to avoid further loss of genetic diversity.

The C76R transmembrane activator and calcium modulator cyclophilin ligand interactor mutation disrupts antibody production and B-cell homeostasis in heterozygous and homozygous mice.

BackgroundMutations in TNFRSF13B, the gene encoding transmembrane activator and calcium modulator cyclophilin ligand interactor (TACI), are found in 10% of patients with common variable immunodeficiency. However, the most commonly detected mutation is the heterozygous change C104R, which is also found in 0.5% to 1% of healthy subjects. The contribution of the C104R mutation to the B-cell defects observed in patients with common variable immunodeficiency therefore remains unclear.ObjectiveWe sought to define the functional consequences of the C104R mutation on B-cell function.MethodsWe performed in vitro studies of TACI C104R expression and signaling. A knock-in mouse with the equivalent mutation murine TACI (mTACI) C76R was generated as a physiologically relevant model of human disease. We examined homozygous and heterozygous C76R mutant mice alongside wild-type littermates and studied specific B-cell lineages and antibody responses to T cell-independent and T cell-dependent challenge.ResultsC104R expression and ligand binding are significantly diminished when the mutant protein is expressed in 293T cells or in patients' cell lines. This leads to defective nuclear factor κB activation, which is proportionally restored by reintroduction of wild-type TACI. Mice heterozygous and homozygous for mTACI C76R exhibit significant B-cell dysfunction with splenomegaly, marginal zone B-cell expansion, diminished immunoglobulin production and serological responses to T cell-independent antigen, and abnormal immunoglobulin synthesis.ConclusionsThese data show that the C104R mutation and its murine equivalent, C76R, can significantly disrupt TACI function, probably through haploinsufficiency. Furthermore, the heterozygous C76R mutation alone is sufficient to disturb B-cell function with lymphoproliferation and immunoglobulin production defects.

Anti-TNF Therapy in the Treatment of Psoriasis in a Patient with Acute-on-Chronic Pancreatitis.

Background: Psoriasis is accepted as a multisystemic disease with several important systemic manifestations. Thus, underlying comorbidities have to be taken into account in the choice of treatment. Objective: To explore the role of anti-TNF therapy in the treatment of psoriasis in a patient with acute-on-chronic pancreatitis. Methods: Here, we present the case of a 75-year-old patient with severe psoriasis also suffering from chronic alcohol-induced pancreatitis with recurrent acute flares. A recent life-threatening episode of acute pancreatitis and ischemic liver precluded the reintroduction of methotrexate. Cyclosporine was also excluded as it has been reported to induce acute pancreatitis. Thus, an anti-TNF treatment was initiated in close collaboration with a gastroenterologist. Results: A year after starting anti-TNF therapy the patient continues to show complete clinical remission of his psoriasis. No side effects, particularly no bacterial infections, were reported. No relapses of the patient's underlying chronic pancreatitis were observed throughout the entire treatment with regular clinical and laboratory monitoring, suggesting that chronic pancreatitis is not per se a contraindication for anti-TNF therapy. Conclusion: This case study opens the way for further questioning on the role of TNF in the pathogenesis of chronic and acute pancreatitis and the use of anti-TNF therapy in its treatment. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Lamotrigine can be beneficial in patients with Dravet syndrome.

Dravet syndrome, a severe infantile epilepsy syndrome, is typically resistant to anti-epileptic drugs (AED). Lamotrigine (LTG), an AED that is effective for both focal and generalized seizures, has been reported to aggravate seizures in Dravet syndrome. Therefore, LTG is usually avoided in Dravet syndrome. We describe two adults and a child with Dravet syndrome in whom LTG resulted in decreased seizure duration and frequency. This benefit was highlighted in each patient when LTG was withdrawn after 6 to 15 years, and resulted in an increased frequency of convulsive seizures together with longer seizure duration. A 25-year-old male required hospital admission for frequent seizures for the first time in 7 years, 6 weeks after ceasing LTG. Reintroduction of LTG improved seizure control, suggesting that in some patients with Dravet syndrome, LTG may be beneficial.

Occurrence, risk factors, diagnosis and treatment of syphilis in the prospective observational Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Annual syphilis testing was reintroduced in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) in 2004. We prospectively studied occurrence, risk factors, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches and treatment of syphilis. METHODS: Over a period of 33 months, participants with positive test results for Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assay were studied using the SHCS database and an additional structured case report form. RESULTS: Of 7244 cohort participants, 909 (12.5%) had positive syphilis serology. Among these, 633 had previously been treated and had no current signs or symptoms of syphilis at time of testing. Of 218 patients with newly detected untreated syphilis, 20% reported genitooral contacts as only risk behavior and 60% were asymptomatic. Newly detected syphilis was more frequent among men who have sex with men (MSM) [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.8, P < 0.001], in persons reporting casual sexual partners (adjusted OR 2.8, P < 0.001) and in MSM of younger age (P = 0.05). Only 35% of recommended cerebrospinal fluid (CFS) examinations were performed. Neurosyphilis was diagnosed in four neurologically asymptomatic patients; all of them had a Venereal Disease Research Laboratory (VDRL) titer of 1:>or=32. Ninety-one percent of the patients responded to treatment with at least a four-fold decline in VDRL titer. CONCLUSION: Syphilis remains an important coinfection in the SHCS justifying reintroduction of routine screening. Genitooral contact is a significant way of transmission and young MSM are at high risk for syphilis. Current guidelines to rule out neurosyphilis by CSF analysis are inconsistently followed in clinical practice. Serologic treatment response is above 90% in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy.

Psychiatrie [Trends in psychiatry]

New data confirm that antidepressants have a global protective effect on the risk of suicide even if they very moderately and transiently increase suicide attempts, particularly in young people. We also present recent data about the following topics. (1) The main results of the STAR*D study, an outpatient study about depression treatment following a very complex algorithm. Nearly all the head to head comparisons between treatments showed a lack of significant difference, and the rates of clinical remission for patients non responders to their first two treatments were low. (2) The reintroduction of sertindole, an atypical antipsychotic: cardiac monitoring is necessary, but should not prevent its use as a second line drug. (3) The potential efficacy of dawn simulation and high density negative air ionization in seasonal depression.

Das Auerhuhn im Jura: Qualität des Lebensraum, Demographie, Habitatwahl und nicht-invasive genetische Untersuchungen

Most Central European Capercaillie populations have been declining during the last century. In the Jura Mountains, at the border between Switzerland and France, remaining Capercaillie populations are now isolated and endangered. In this study, land-use and Capercaillie presence data were used to identify key landscape parameters by logistic regression modelling. We found that Capercaillie prefers areas at the highest altitude in the Jura Mountains that are characterised by continous forests and stands with intermediate canopy cover. At the local scale, winter habitat selection revealed a preference for open forests with a sparse canopy cover dominated by spruce and fir. Capercaillie avoided dense undercanopy and understorey, especially when dominated by beech. Population viability and sensitivity analyses underlined the crucial importance of adult female survival, chick survival and breeding success for populations maintenance. Legal bases, scientific knowledge and technical measures are now available to conserve the flagship species Capercaillie within Jura Mountains. Capercaillie-adapted forestry requires a mosaic distribtution of habitat types, with a matrix of open forests where fir is favoured, and understorey kept sparse. Preliminary essays indicate that grouse-adapted forestry costs are similar or even lower than present costs. To increase survival and breeding sucess, one option is to diminish human distrubance by limiting access to Capercailllie breeding and wintering areas. An action plan for the species should avoid more costly and intensive approaches such as the reintroduction of birds from other populations. Capercaillie conservaiton represents a major challenge rising from various and contradictory leisure, tourist and rural development activities. Collaborations with different stakeholders and state agencies for forestry with an effective protection from human distrubance.

The ATP-binding cassette transporter-encoding gene CgSNQ2 is contributing to the CgPDR1-dependent azole resistance of Candida glabrata.

Our previous investigation on Candida glabrata azole-resistant isolates identified two isolates with unaltered expression of CgCDR1/CgCDR2, but with upregulation of another ATP-binding cassette transporter, CgSNQ2, which is a gene highly similar to ScSNQ2 from Saccharomyces cerevisiae. One of the two isolates (BPY55) was used here to elucidate this phenomenon. Disruption of CgSNQ2 in BPY55 decreased azole resistance, whereas reintroduction of the gene in a CgSNQ2 deletion mutant fully reversed this effect. Expression of CgSNQ2 in a S. cerevisiae strain lacking PDR5 mediated not only resistance to azoles but also to 4-nitroquinoline N-oxide, which is a ScSNQ2-specific substrate. A putative gain-of-function mutation, P822L, was identified in CgPDR1 from BPY55. Disruption of CgPDR1 in BPY55 conferred enhanced azole susceptibility and eliminated CgSNQ2 expression, whereas introduction of the mutated allele in a susceptible strain where CgPDR1 had been disrupted conferred azole resistance and CgSNQ2 upregulation, indicating that CgSNQ2 was controlled by CgPDR1. Finally, CgSNQ2 was shown to be involved in the in vivo response to fluconazole. Together, our data first demonstrate that CgSNQ2 contributes to the development of CgPDR1-dependent azole resistance in C. glabrata. The overlapping in function and regulation between CgSNQ2 and ScSNQ2 further highlight the relationship between S. cerevisiae and C. glabrata.

Manipulating sex ratio to increase population growth: the example of the Lesser Kestrel

Small or decreasing populations call for emergency actions like, for example, captive breeding programs. Such programs aim at rapidly increasing population sizes in order to reduce the loss of genetic variability and to avoid possible Allee effects. The Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni is one of the species that is currently supported in several captive breeding programs at various locations. Here, we model the demographic and genetic consequences of potential management strategies that are based on offspring sex ratio manipulation. Increased population growth could be achieved by manipulating female conditions and/or male attractiveness in the captive breeders and consequently shifting the offspring sex ratio towards more female offspring, which are then used for reintroduction. Fragmenting populations into wild-breeding and captive-breeding demes and manipulating population sex ratio both immediately increase the inbreeding coefficient in the next generation (i.e. decrease N-e) but may, in the long term, reduce the loss of genetic variability if population growth is restricted by the number of females. We use the Lesser Kestrel and the wealth of information that is available on this species to predict the long-term consequences of various kinds of sex-ratio manipulation. We find that, in our example and possibly in many other cases, a sex-ratio manipulation that seems realistic could have a beneficial effect on the captive breeding program. However, the possible long-term costs and benefits of such measures need to be carefully optimized.

An improved approach for predicting the distribution of rare and endangered species from occurrence and pseudo-absence data

1. Few examples of habitat-modelling studies of rare and endangered species exist in the literature, although from a conservation perspective predicting their distribution would prove particularly useful. Paucity of data and lack of valid absences are the probable reasons for this shortcoming. Analytic solutions to accommodate the lack of absence include the ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) and the use of generalized linear models (GLM) with simulated pseudo-absences. 2. In this study we tested a new approach to generating pseudo-absences, based on a preliminary ENFA habitat suitability (HS) map, for the endangered species Eryngium alpinum. This method of generating pseudo-absences was compared with two others: (i) use of a GLM with pseudo-absences generated totally at random, and (ii) use of an ENFA only. 3. The influence of two different spatial resolutions (i.e. grain) was also assessed for tackling the dilemma of quality (grain) vs. quantity (number of occurrences). Each combination of the three above-mentioned methods with the two grains generated a distinct HS map. 4. Four evaluation measures were used for comparing these HS maps: total deviance explained, best kappa, Gini coefficient and minimal predicted area (MPA). The last is a new evaluation criterion proposed in this study. 5. Results showed that (i) GLM models using ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence provide better results, except for the MPA value, and that (ii) quality (spatial resolution and locational accuracy) of the data appears to be more important than quantity (number of occurrences). Furthermore, the proposed MPA value is suggested as a useful measure of model evaluation when used to complement classical statistical measures. 6. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that the use of ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence is a possible way to enhance the quality of GLM-based potential distribution maps and that data quality (i.e. spatial resolution) prevails over quantity (i.e. number of data). Increased accuracy of potential distribution maps could help to define better suitable areas for species protection and reintroduction.

Identification of Multiple Mechanisms of Resistance to Vemurafenib in a Patient with BRAFV600E-Mutated Cutaneous Melanoma Successfully Rechallenged after Progression.

PURPOSE: To investigate the mechanism(s) of resistance to the RAF-inhibitor vemurafenib, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the genetic alterations occurring in metastatic lesions from a patient with a BRAF(V600E)-mutant cutaneous melanoma who, after a first response, underwent subsequent rechallenge with this drug. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We obtained blood and tissue samples from a patient diagnosed with a BRAF(V600E)-mutant cutaneous melanoma that was treated with vemurafenib and achieved a near-complete response. At progression, he received additional lines of chemo/immunotherapy and was successfully rechallenged with vemurafenib. Exome and RNA sequencing were conducted on a pretreatment tumor and two subcutaneous resistant metastases, one that was present at baseline and previously responded to vemurafenib (PV1) and one that occurred de novo after reintroduction of the drug (PV2). A culture established from PV1 was also analyzed. RESULTS: We identified two NRAS-activating somatic mutations, Q61R and Q61K, affecting two main subpopulations in the metastasis PV1 and a BRAF alternative splicing, involving exons 4-10, in the metastasis PV2. These alterations, known to confer resistance to RAF inhibitors, were tumor-specific, mutually exclusive, and were not detected in pretreatment tumor samples. In addition, the oncogenic PIK3CA(H1047R) mutation was detected in a subpopulation of PV1, but this mutation did not seem to play a major role in vemurafenib resistance in this metastasis. CONCLUSIONS: This work describes the coexistence within the same patient of different molecular mechanisms of resistance to vemurafenib affecting different metastatic sites. These findings have direct implications for the clinical management of BRAF-mutant melanoma. Clin Cancer Res; 19(20); 5749-57. ©2013 AACR.

Linking landscape- and population ecology for large population management modelling: the case of Ibex (capra ibex) in Switzerland

La biologie de la conservation est communément associée à la protection de petites populations menacées d?extinction. Pourtant, il peut également être nécessaire de soumettre à gestion des populations surabondantes ou susceptibles d?une trop grande expansion, dans le but de prévenir les effets néfastes de la surpopulation. Du fait des différences tant quantitatives que qualitatives entre protection des petites populations et contrôle des grandes, il est nécessaire de disposer de modèles et de méthodes distinctes. L?objectif de ce travail a été de développer des modèles prédictifs de la dynamique des grandes populations, ainsi que des logiciels permettant de calculer les paramètres de ces modèles et de tester des scénarios de gestion. Le cas du Bouquetin des Alpes (Capra ibex ibex) - en forte expansion en Suisse depuis sa réintroduction au début du XXème siècle - servit d?exemple. Cette tâche fut accomplie en trois étapes : En premier lieu, un modèle de dynamique locale, spécifique au Bouquetin, fut développé : le modèle sous-jacent - structuré en classes d?âge et de sexe - est basé sur une matrice de Leslie à laquelle ont été ajoutées la densité-dépendance, la stochasticité environnementale et la chasse de régulation. Ce modèle fut implémenté dans un logiciel d?aide à la gestion - nommé SIM-Ibex - permettant la maintenance de données de recensements, l?estimation automatisée des paramètres, ainsi que l?ajustement et la simulation de stratégies de régulation. Mais la dynamique d?une population est influencée non seulement par des facteurs démographiques, mais aussi par la dispersion et la colonisation de nouveaux espaces. Il est donc nécessaire de pouvoir modéliser tant la qualité de l?habitat que les obstacles à la dispersion. Une collection de logiciels - nommée Biomapper - fut donc développée. Son module central est basé sur l?Analyse Factorielle de la Niche Ecologique (ENFA) dont le principe est de calculer des facteurs de marginalité et de spécialisation de la niche écologique à partir de prédicteurs environnementaux et de données d?observation de l?espèce. Tous les modules de Biomapper sont liés aux Systèmes d?Information Géographiques (SIG) ; ils couvrent toutes les opérations d?importation des données, préparation des prédicteurs, ENFA et calcul de la carte de qualité d?habitat, validation et traitement des résultats ; un module permet également de cartographier les barrières et les corridors de dispersion. Le domaine d?application de l?ENFA fut exploré par le biais d?une distribution d?espèce virtuelle. La comparaison à une méthode couramment utilisée pour construire des cartes de qualité d?habitat, le Modèle Linéaire Généralisé (GLM), montra qu?elle était particulièrement adaptée pour les espèces cryptiques ou en cours d?expansion. Les informations sur la démographie et le paysage furent finalement fusionnées en un modèle global. Une approche basée sur un automate cellulaire fut choisie, tant pour satisfaire aux contraintes du réalisme de la modélisation du paysage qu?à celles imposées par les grandes populations : la zone d?étude est modélisée par un pavage de cellules hexagonales, chacune caractérisée par des propriétés - une capacité de soutien et six taux d?imperméabilité quantifiant les échanges entre cellules adjacentes - et une variable, la densité de la population. Cette dernière varie en fonction de la reproduction et de la survie locale, ainsi que de la dispersion, sous l?influence de la densité-dépendance et de la stochasticité. Un logiciel - nommé HexaSpace - fut développé pour accomplir deux fonctions : 1° Calibrer l?automate sur la base de modèles de dynamique (par ex. calculés par SIM-Ibex) et d?une carte de qualité d?habitat (par ex. calculée par Biomapper). 2° Faire tourner des simulations. Il permet d?étudier l?expansion d?une espèce envahisseuse dans un paysage complexe composé de zones de qualité diverses et comportant des obstacles à la dispersion. Ce modèle fut appliqué à l?histoire de la réintroduction du Bouquetin dans les Alpes bernoises (Suisse). SIM-Ibex est actuellement utilisé par les gestionnaires de la faune et par les inspecteurs du gouvernement pour préparer et contrôler les plans de tir. Biomapper a été appliqué à plusieurs espèces (tant végétales qu?animales) à travers le Monde. De même, même si HexaSpace fut initialement conçu pour des espèces animales terrestres, il pourrait aisément être étndu à la propagation de plantes ou à la dispersion d?animaux volants. Ces logiciels étant conçus pour, à partir de données brutes, construire un modèle réaliste complexe, et du fait qu?ils sont dotés d?une interface d?utilisation intuitive, ils sont susceptibles de nombreuses applications en biologie de la conservation. En outre, ces approches peuvent également s?appliquer à des questions théoriques dans les domaines de l?écologie des populations et du paysage.<br/><br/>Conservation biology is commonly associated to small and endangered population protection. Nevertheless, large or potentially large populations may also need human management to prevent negative effects of overpopulation. As there are both qualitative and quantitative differences between small population protection and large population controlling, distinct methods and models are needed. The aim of this work was to develop theoretical models to predict large population dynamics, as well as computer tools to assess the parameters of these models and to test management scenarios. The alpine Ibex (Capra ibex ibex) - which experienced a spectacular increase since its reintroduction in Switzerland at the beginning of the 20th century - was used as paradigm species. This task was achieved in three steps: A local population dynamics model was first developed specifically for Ibex: the underlying age- and sex-structured model is based on a Leslie matrix approach with addition of density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and culling. This model was implemented into a management-support software - named SIM-Ibex - allowing census data maintenance, parameter automated assessment and culling strategies tuning and simulating. However population dynamics is driven not only by demographic factors, but also by dispersal and colonisation of new areas. Habitat suitability and obstacles modelling had therefore to be addressed. Thus, a software package - named Biomapper - was developed. Its central module is based on the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) whose principle is to compute niche marginality and specialisation factors from a set of environmental predictors and species presence data. All Biomapper modules are linked to Geographic Information Systems (GIS); they cover all operations of data importation, predictor preparation, ENFA and habitat suitability map computation, results validation and further processing; a module also allows mapping of dispersal barriers and corridors. ENFA application domain was then explored by means of a simulated species distribution. It was compared to a common habitat suitability assessing method, the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), and was proven better suited for spreading or cryptic species. Demography and landscape informations were finally merged into a global model. To cope with landscape realism and technical constraints of large population modelling, a cellular automaton approach was chosen: the study area is modelled by a lattice of hexagonal cells, each one characterised by a few fixed properties - a carrying capacity and six impermeability rates quantifying exchanges between adjacent cells - and one variable, population density. The later varies according to local reproduction/survival and dispersal dynamics, modified by density-dependence and stochasticity. A software - named HexaSpace - was developed, which achieves two functions: 1° Calibrating the automaton on the base of local population dynamics models (e.g., computed by SIM-Ibex) and a habitat suitability map (e.g. computed by Biomapper). 2° Running simulations. It allows studying the spreading of an invading species across a complex landscape made of variously suitable areas and dispersal barriers. This model was applied to the history of Ibex reintroduction in Bernese Alps (Switzerland). SIM-Ibex is now used by governmental wildlife managers to prepare and verify culling plans. Biomapper has been applied to several species (both plants and animals) all around the World. In the same way, whilst HexaSpace was originally designed for terrestrial animal species, it could be easily extended to model plant propagation or flying animals dispersal. As these softwares were designed to proceed from low-level data to build a complex realistic model and as they benefit from an intuitive user-interface, they may have many conservation applications. Moreover, theoretical questions in the fields of population and landscape ecology might also be addressed by these approaches.

Repeuplement piscicole: complexe et émotionnel

Pratiquement toutes les eaux de Suisse font l'objet de mesures de repeuplement réalisées par des pêcheurs et des défenseurs de la nature. Il subsiste toutefois de nombreuses questions, auxquelles la recherche ne peut répondre qu'avec le concours des praticiens.