Application of detection probabilities to the design of amphibian monitoring programs in temporary ponds

Failure to detect a species in an area where it is present is a major source of error in biological surveys. We assessed whether it is possible to optimize single-visit biological monitoring surveys of highly dynamic freshwater ecosystems by framing them a priori within a particular period of time. Alternatively, we also searched for the optimal number of visits and when they should be conducted. We developed single-species occupancy models to estimate the monthly probability of detection of pond-breeding amphibians during a four-year monitoring program. Our results revealed that detection probability was species-specific and changed among sampling visits within a breeding season and also among breeding seasons. Thereby, the optimization of biological surveys with minimal survey effort (a single visit) is not feasible as it proves impossible to select a priori an adequate sampling period that remains robust across years. Alternatively, a two-survey combination at the beginning of the sampling season yielded optimal results and constituted an acceptable compromise between sampling efficacy and survey effort. Our study provides evidence of the variability and uncertainty that likely affects the efficacy of monitoring surveys, highlighting the need of repeated sampling in both ecological studies and conservation management.

Defining risk thresholds for a 10-year probability of hip fracture model that combines clinical risk factors and quantitative ultrasound: results using the EPISEM cohort.

Using a large prospective cohort of over 12,000 women, we determined 2 thresholds (high risk and low risk of hip fracture) to use in a 10-yr hip fracture probability model that we had previously described, a model combining the heel stiffness index measured by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) and a set of easily determined clinical risk factors (CRFs). The model identified a higher percentage of women with fractures as high risk than a previously reported risk score that combined QUS and CRF. In addition, it categorized women in a way that was quite consistent with the categorization that occurred using dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) classification system; the 2 methods identified similar percentages of women with and without fractures in each of their 3 categories, but the 2 identified only in part the same women. Nevertheless, combining our composite probability model with DXA in a case findings strategy will likely further improve the detection of women at high risk of fragility hip fracture. We conclude that the currently proposed model may be of some use as an alternative to the WHO classification criteria for osteoporosis, at least when access to DXA is limited.

Progesterone down-regulates the open probability of the amiloride-sensitive epithelial sodium channel via a Nedd4-2-dependent mechanism.

Activation of the mitogen-activated protein (MAP) kinase cascade by progesterone in Xenopus oocytes leads to a marked down-regulation of activity of the amiloride-sensitive epithelial sodium channel (ENaC). Here we have studied the signaling pathways involved in progesterone effect on ENaC activity. We demonstrate that: (i) the truncation of the C termini of the alphabetagammaENaC subunits results in the loss of the progesterone effect on ENaC; (ii) the effect of progesterone was also suppressed by mutating conserved tyrosine residues in the Pro-X-X-Tyr (PY) motif of the C termini of the beta and gamma ENaC subunits (beta(Y618A) and gamma(Y628A)); (iii) the down-regulation of ENaC activity by progesterone was also suppressed by co-expression ENaC subunits with a catalytically inactive mutant of Nedd4-2, a ubiquitin ligase that has been previously demonstrated to decrease ENaC cell-surface expression via a ubiquitin-dependent internalization/degradation mechanism; (iv) the effect of progesterone was significantly reduced by suppression of consensus sites (beta(T613A) and gamma(T623A)) for ENaC phosphorylation by the extracellular-regulated kinase (ERK), a MAP kinase previously shown to facilitate the binding of Nedd4 ubiquitin ligases to ENaC; (v) the quantification of cell-surface-expressed ENaC subunits revealed that progesterone decreases ENaC open probability (whole cell P(o), wcP(o)) and not its cell-surface expression. Collectively, these results demonstrate that the binding of active Nedd4-2 to ENaC is a crucial step in the mechanism of ENaC inhibition by progesterone. Upon activation of ERK, the effect of Nedd4-2 on ENaC open probability can become more important than its effect on ENaC cell-surface expression.

Probability of achieving optimal molecular response to imatinib in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients: Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) relationships observed under field-conditions

Objectives: Imatinib has been increasingly proposed for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), as trough concentrations (Cmin) correlate with response rates in CML patients. This analysis aimed to evaluate the impact of imatinib exposure on optimal molecular response rates in a large European cohort of patients followed by centralized TDM.¦Methods: Sequential PK/PD analysis was performed in NONMEM 7 on 2230 plasma (PK) samples obtained along with molecular response (PD) data from 1299 CML patients. Model-based individual Bayesian estimates of exposure, parameterized as to initial dose adjusted and log-normalized Cmin (log-Cmin) or clearance (CL), were investigated as potential predictors of optimal molecular response, while accounting for time under treatment (stratified at 3 years), gender, CML phase, age, potentially interacting comedication, and TDM frequency. PK/PD analysis used mixed-effect logistic regression (iterative two-stage method) to account for intra-patient correlation.¦Results: In univariate analyses, CL, log-Cmin, time under treatment, TDM frequency, gender (all p<0.01) and CML phase (p=0.02) were significant predictors of the outcome. In multivariate analyses, all but log-Cmin remained significant (p<0.05). Our model estimates a 54.1% probability of optimal molecular response in a female patient with a median CL of 14.4 L/h, increasing by 4.7% with a 35% decrease in CL (percentile 10 of CL distribution), and decreasing by 6% with a 45% increased CL (percentile 90), respectively. Male patients were less likely than female to be in optimal response (odds ratio: 0.62, p<0.001), with an estimated probability of 42.3%.¦Conclusions: Beyond CML phase and time on treatment, expectedly correlated to the outcome, an effect of initial imatinib exposure on the probability of achieving optimal molecular response was confirmed in field-conditions by this multivariate analysis. Interestingly, male patients had a higher risk of suboptimal response, which might not exclusively derive from their 18.5% higher CL, but also from reported lower adherence to the treatment. A prospective longitudinal study would be desirable to confirm the clinical importance of identified covariates and to exclude biases possibly affecting this observational survey.

MRSA screening by the Xpert MRSA PCR assay: pooling samples of the nose, throat, and groin increases the sensitivity of detection without increasing the laboratory costs.

The performance of the Xpert MRSA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay on pooled nose, groin, and throat swabs (three nylon flocked eSwabs into one tube) was compared to culture by analyzing 5,546 samples. The sensitivity [0.78, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.82] and specificity (0.99, 95 % CI 0.98-0.99) were similar to the results from published studies on separated nose or other specimens. Thus, the performance of the Xpert MRSA assay was not affected by pooling the three specimens into one assay, allowing a higher detection rate without increasing laboratory costs, as compared to nose samples alone.

The influence of environmental conditions on immune responses, morphology and recapture probability of nestling house martins (Delichon urbica)

Nestling birds produced later in the season are hypothesized to be of poor quality with a low probability of survival and recruitment. In a Spanish population of house martins (Delichon urbica), we first compared reproductive success, immune responses and morphological traits between the first and the second broods. Second, we investigated the effects of an ectoparasite treatment and breeding date on the recapture rate the following year. Due probably to a reverse situation in weather conditions during the experiment, with more rain during rearing of the first brood, nestlings reared during the second brood were in better condition and had stronger immune responses compared with nestlings from the first brood. Contrary to other findings on house martins, we found a similar recapture rate for chicks reared during the first and the second brood. Furthermore, ectoparasitic house martin bugs had no significant effect on the recapture rate. Recaptured birds had similar morphology but higher immunoglobulin levels when nestlings compared with non-recaptured birds. This result implies that a measure of immune function is a better predictor of survival than body condition per se.

Exposition de l'enfant a des violences domestiques. Un modèle pluridisciplinaire de détection, d'evaluation et de prise en charge [Children's exposure to domestic violence. A multidisciplinary model of detection, assessment and management].

Children psychological abuse is difficult to identify. However, its consequences on child development can be as serious as physical and sexual abuses. It is therefore essential, to implement in our hospitals, structures whose missions are successively to detect victims, evaluate them on somatic and psychological levels, and elaborate a therapy. We propose a model for the achievement of these objectives through collaboration between the Medical Unit of Violence, the Pediatric CAN Team and the Unit of Les Boréales.

Decreased Probability of Initial Pain Cessation in Classic Trigeminal Neuralgia Treated With Gamma Knife Surgery in Case of Previous Microvascular Decompression: A Prospective Series of 45 Patients With >1 Year of Follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Microvascular decompression (MVD) is the reference technique for pharmacoresistant trigeminal neuralgia (TN). OBJECTIVE: To establish whether the safety and efficacy of Gamma Knife surgery for recurrent TN are influenced by prior MVD. METHODS: Between July 1992 and November 2010, 54 of 737 patients (45 of 497 with >1 year of follow-up) had a history of MVD (approximately half also with previous ablative procedure) and were operated on with Gamma Knife surgery for TN in the Timone University Hospital. A single 4-mm isocenter was positioned in the cisternal portion of the trigeminal nerve at a median distance of 7.6 mm (range, 3.9-11.9 mm) anterior to the emergence of the nerve. A median maximum dose of 85 Gy (range, 70-90 Gy) was delivered. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 39.5 months (range, 14.1-144.6 months). Thirty-five patients (77.8%) were initially pain free in a median time of 14 days (range, 0-180 days), much lower compared with our global population of classic TN (P = .01). Their actuarial probabilities of remaining pain-free without medication at 3, 5, 7, and 10 years were 66.5%, 59.1%, 59.1%, and 44.3%. The hypoesthesia actuarial rate at 1 year was 9.1% and remained stable until 12 years (median, 8 months). CONCLUSION: Patients with previous MVD showed a significantly lower probability of initial pain cessation compared with our global population with classic TN (P = .01). The toxicity was low (only 9.1% hypoesthesia); furthermore, no patient reported bothersome hypoesthesia. However, the probability of maintaining pain relief without medication was 44.3% at 10 years, similar to our global series of classic TN (P = .85). ABBREVIATIONS: BNI, Barrow Neurological InstituteCI, confidence intervalCTN, classic trigeminal neuralgiaGKS, Gamma Knife surgeryHR, hazard ratioMVD, microvascular decompressionTN, trigeminal neuralgia.

MAR elements regulate the probability of epigenetic switching between active and inactive gene expression.

Gene expression often cycles between active and inactive states in eukaryotes, yielding variable or noisy gene expression in the short-term, while slow epigenetic changes may lead to silencing or variegated expression. Understanding how cells control these effects will be of paramount importance to construct biological systems with predictable behaviours. Here we find that a human matrix attachment region (MAR) genetic element controls the stability and heritability of gene expression in cell populations. Mathematical modeling indicated that the MAR controls the probability of long-term transitions between active and inactive expression, thus reducing silencing effects and increasing the reactivation of silent genes. Single-cell short-terms assays revealed persistent expression and reduced expression noise in MAR-driven genes, while stochastic burst of expression occurred without this genetic element. The MAR thus confers a more deterministic behavior to an otherwise stochastic process, providing a means towards more reliable expression of engineered genetic systems.

Homeodomain binding motifs modulate the probability of odorant receptor gene choice in transgenic mice.

Odorant receptor (OR) genes constitute with 1200 members the largest gene family in the mouse genome. A mature olfactory sensory neuron (OSN) is thought to express just one OR gene, and from one allele. The cell bodies of OSNs that express a given OR gene display a mosaic pattern within a particular region of the main olfactory epithelium. The mechanisms and cis-acting DNA elements that regulate the expression of one OR gene per OSN - OR gene choice - remain poorly understood. Here, we describe a reporter assay to identify minimal promoters for OR genes in transgenic mice, which are produced by the conventional method of pronuclear injection of DNA. The promoter transgenes are devoid of an OR coding sequence, and instead drive expression of the axonal marker tau-β-galactosidase. For four mouse OR genes (M71, M72, MOR23, and P3) and one human OR gene (hM72), a mosaic, OSN-specific pattern of reporter expression can be obtained in transgenic mice with contiguous DNA segments of only ~300 bp that are centered around the transcription start site (TSS). The ~150bp region upstream of the TSS contains three conserved sequence motifs, including homeodomain (HD) binding sites. Such HD binding sites are also present in the H and P elements, DNA sequences that are known to strongly influence OR gene expression. When a 19mer encompassing a HD binding site from the P element is multimerized nine times and added upstream of a MOR23 minigene that contains the MOR23 coding region, we observe a dramatic increase in the number of transgene-expressing founders and lines and in the number of labeled OSNs. By contrast, a nine times multimerized 19mer with a mutant HD binding site does not have these effects. We hypothesize that HD binding sites in the H and P elements and in OR promoters modulate the probability of OR gene choice.

Photodynamic Diagnosis of Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer with Hexaminolevulinate Cystoscopy: A Meta-analysis of Detection and Recurrence Based on Raw Data.

BACKGROUND: Studies on hexaminolevulinate (HAL) cystoscopy report improved detection of bladder tumours. However, recent meta-analyses report conflicting effects on recurrence. OBJECTIVE: To assess available clinical data for blue light (BL) HAL cystoscopy on the detection of Ta/T1 and carcinoma in situ (CIS) tumours, and on tumour recurrence. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This meta-analysis reviewed raw data from prospective studies on 1345 patients with known or suspected non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). INTERVENTION: A single application of HAL cystoscopy was used as an adjunct to white light (WL) cystoscopy. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: We studied the detection of NMIBC (intention to treat [ITT]: n=831; six studies) and recurrence (per protocol: n=634; three studies) up to 1 yr. DerSimonian and Laird's random-effects model was used to obtain pooled relative risks (RRs) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for outcomes for detection. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: BL cystoscopy detected significantly more Ta tumours (14.7%; p<0.001; odds ratio [OR]: 4.898; 95% CI, 1.937-12.390) and CIS lesions (40.8%; p<0.001; OR: 12.372; 95% CI, 6.343-24.133) than WL. There were 24.9% patients with at least one additional Ta/T1 tumour seen with BL (p<0.001), significant also in patients with primary (20.7%; p<0.001) and recurrent cancer (27.7%; p<0.001), and in patients at high risk (27.0%; p<0.001) and intermediate risk (35.7%; p=0.004). In 26.7% of patients, CIS was detected only by BL (p<0.001) and was also significant in patients with primary (28.0%; p<0.001) and recurrent cancer (25.0%; p<0.001). Recurrence rates up to 12 mo were significantly lower overall with BL, 34.5% versus 45.4% (p=0.006; RR: 0.761 [0.627-0.924]), and lower in patients with T1 or CIS (p=0.052; RR: 0.696 [0.482-1.003]), Ta (p=0.040; RR: 0.804 [0.653-0.991]), and in high-risk (p=0.050) and low-risk (p=0.029) subgroups. Some subgroups had too few patients to allow statistically meaningful analysis. Heterogeneity was minimised by the statistical analysis method used. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis confirms that HAL BL cystoscopy significantly improves the detection of bladder tumours leading to a reduction of recurrence at 9-12 mo. The benefit is independent of the level of risk and is evident in patients with Ta, T1, CIS, primary, and recurrent cancer.

Assessment of the 10-year probability of osteoporotic hip fracture combining clinical risk factors and heel bone ultrasound: the EPISEM prospective cohort of 12,958 elderly women.

This study aimed to develop a hip screening tool that combines relevant clinical risk factors (CRFs) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel to determine the 10-yr probability of hip fractures in elderly women. The EPISEM database, comprised of approximately 13,000 women 70 yr of age, was derived from two population-based white European cohorts in France and Switzerland. All women had baseline data on CRFs and a baseline measurement of the stiffness index (SI) derived from QUS at the heel. Women were followed prospectively to identify incident fractures. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the CRFs that contributed significantly to hip fracture risk, and these were used to generate a CRF score. Gradients of risk (GR; RR/SD change) and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated for the CRF score, SI, and a score combining both. The 10-yr probability of hip fracture was computed for the combined model. Three hundred seven hip fractures were observed over a mean follow-up of 3.2 yr. In addition to SI, significant CRFs for hip fracture were body mass index (BMI), history of fracture, an impaired chair test, history of a recent fall, current cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus. The average GR for hip fracture was 2.10 per SD with the combined SI + CRF score compared with a GR of 1.77 with SI alone and of 1.52 with the CRF score alone. Thus, the use of CRFs enhanced the predictive value of SI alone. For example, in a woman 80 yr of age, the presence of two to four CRFs increased the probability of hip fracture from 16.9% to 26.6% and from 52.6% to 70.5% for SI Z-scores of +2 and -3, respectively. The combined use of CRFs and QUS SI is a promising tool to assess hip fracture probability in elderly women, especially when access to DXA is limited.

Cannabis use and other illicit drug use: Do subjective experiences during first cannabis use increase the probability of using illicit drug use?

Background and aims: Few studies have examined whether subjective experiences during first cannabis use are related to other illicit drug (OID) use. This study investigated this topic. Methods: Baseline data from a representative sample of young Swiss men was obtained from an ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (N ¼ 5753). Logistic regressions were performed to examine the relationships between cannabis use and of subjective experiences during first cannabis use with 15 OID. Results: Positive experiences increased the likelihood of using hallucinogens (hallucinogens, salvia divinorum, spice; p50.015), stimulants (speed, ecstasy, cocaine, amphetamines/methamphetamines; p50.006) and also poppers, research chemicals, GHB/GBL, and crystal meth (p50.049). Sniffed drugs (poppers, solvents for sniffing) and ''hard'' drugs (heroin, ketamine, research chemicals, GHB/GBL and crystal meth) were more likely to be used by participants who experienced negative feelings on first use of cannabis (p50.034). Conclusion: Subjective feelings seemed to amplify the association of cannabis with OID. The risk increased for drugs with effects resembling feelings experienced on first cannabis use. Negative experiences should also be a concern, as they were associated with increased risk of using the ''hardest'' illicit drugs.