Quantifying uncertainty: physicians' estimates of infection in critically ill neonates and children.

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of physicians' prior probability estimates of serious infection in critically ill neonates and children, we conducted a prospective cohort study in 2 intensive care units. Using available clinical, laboratory, and radiographic information, 27 physicians provided 2567 probability estimates for 347 patients (follow-up rate, 92%). The median probability estimate of infection increased from 0% (i.e., no antibiotic treatment or diagnostic work-up for sepsis), to 2% on the day preceding initiation of antibiotic therapy, to 20% at initiation of antibiotic treatment (P<.001). At initiation of treatment, predictions discriminated well between episodes subsequently classified as proven infection and episodes ultimately judged unlikely to be infection (area under the curve, 0.88). Physicians also showed a good ability to predict blood culture-positive sepsis (area under the curve, 0.77). Treatment and testing thresholds were derived from the provided predictions and treatment rates. Physicians' prognoses regarding the presence of serious infection were remarkably precise. Studies investigating the value of new tests for diagnosis of sepsis should establish that they add incremental value to physicians' judgment.

Bayesian classification criterion for forensic multivariate data

This study presents a classification criteria for two-class Cannabis seedlings. As the cultivation of drug type cannabis is forbidden in Switzerland, law enforcement authorities regularly ask laboratories to determine cannabis plant's chemotype from seized material in order to ascertain that the plantation is legal or not. In this study, the classification analysis is based on data obtained from the relative proportion of three major leaf compounds measured by gas-chromatography interfaced with mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The aim is to discriminate between drug type (illegal) and fiber type (legal) cannabis at an early stage of the growth. A Bayesian procedure is proposed: a Bayes factor is computed and classification is performed on the basis of the decision maker specifications (i.e. prior probability distributions on cannabis type and consequences of classification measured by losses). Classification rates are computed with two statistical models and results are compared. Sensitivity analysis is then performed to analyze the robustness of classification criteria.

Reply to Budowle, Ge, Chakraborty and Gill-King: use of prior odds for missing persons identifications

Prior probabilities represent a core element of the Bayesian probabilistic approach to relatedness testing. This letter opinions on the commentary 'Use of prior odds for missing persons identifications' by Budowle et al. (2011), published recently in this journal. Contrary to Budowle et al. (2011), we argue that the concept of prior probabilities (i) is not endowed with the notion of objectivity, (ii) is not a case for computation and (iii) does not require new guidelines edited by the forensic DNA community - as long as probability is properly considered as an expression of personal belief. Please see related article: http://www.investigativegenetics.com/content/3/1/3

Decreased Probability of Initial Pain Cessation in Classic Trigeminal Neuralgia Treated With Gamma Knife Surgery in Case of Previous Microvascular Decompression: A Prospective Series of 45 Patients With >1 Year of Follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Microvascular decompression (MVD) is the reference technique for pharmacoresistant trigeminal neuralgia (TN). OBJECTIVE: To establish whether the safety and efficacy of Gamma Knife surgery for recurrent TN are influenced by prior MVD. METHODS: Between July 1992 and November 2010, 54 of 737 patients (45 of 497 with >1 year of follow-up) had a history of MVD (approximately half also with previous ablative procedure) and were operated on with Gamma Knife surgery for TN in the Timone University Hospital. A single 4-mm isocenter was positioned in the cisternal portion of the trigeminal nerve at a median distance of 7.6 mm (range, 3.9-11.9 mm) anterior to the emergence of the nerve. A median maximum dose of 85 Gy (range, 70-90 Gy) was delivered. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 39.5 months (range, 14.1-144.6 months). Thirty-five patients (77.8%) were initially pain free in a median time of 14 days (range, 0-180 days), much lower compared with our global population of classic TN (P = .01). Their actuarial probabilities of remaining pain-free without medication at 3, 5, 7, and 10 years were 66.5%, 59.1%, 59.1%, and 44.3%. The hypoesthesia actuarial rate at 1 year was 9.1% and remained stable until 12 years (median, 8 months). CONCLUSION: Patients with previous MVD showed a significantly lower probability of initial pain cessation compared with our global population with classic TN (P = .01). The toxicity was low (only 9.1% hypoesthesia); furthermore, no patient reported bothersome hypoesthesia. However, the probability of maintaining pain relief without medication was 44.3% at 10 years, similar to our global series of classic TN (P = .85). ABBREVIATIONS: BNI, Barrow Neurological InstituteCI, confidence intervalCTN, classic trigeminal neuralgiaGKS, Gamma Knife surgeryHR, hazard ratioMVD, microvascular decompressionTN, trigeminal neuralgia.

Estimating vadose zone hydraulic properties using ground penetrating radar: The impact of prior information

A number of geophysical methods, such as ground-penetrating radar (GPR), have the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties in the unsaturated zone. In particular, the stochastic inversion of such data within a coupled geophysical-hydrological framework may allow for the effective estimation of vadose zone hydraulic parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. A critical issue in stochastic inversion is choosing prior parameter probability distributions from which potential model configurations are drawn and tested against observed data. A well chosen prior should reflect as honestly as possible the initial state of knowledge regarding the parameters and be neither overly specific nor too conservative. In a Bayesian context, combining the prior with available data yields a posterior state of knowledge about the parameters, which can then be used statistically for predictions and risk assessment. Here we investigate the influence of prior information regarding the van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters, which describe vadose zone hydraulic properties, on the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR data collected under steady state, natural-loading conditions. We do this using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inversion approach, considering first noninformative uniform prior distributions and then more informative priors derived from soil property databases. For the informative priors, we further explore the effect of including information regarding parameter correlation. Analysis of both synthetic and field data indicates that the geophysical data alone contain valuable information regarding the VGM parameters. However, significantly better results are obtained when we combine these data with a realistic, informative prior.

Official Positions for FRAX® clinical regarding prior fractures from Joint Official Positions Development Conference of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation on FRAX®.

The 2010 Position Development Conference addressed four questions related to the impact of previous fractures on 10-year fracture risk as calculated by FRAX(®). To address these questions, PubMed was searched on the keywords "fracture, epidemiology, osteoporosis." Titles of retrieved articles were reviewed for an indication that risk for future fracture was discussed. Abstracts of these articles were reviewed for an indication that one or more of the questions listed above was discussed. For those that did, the articles were reviewed in greater detail to extract the findings and to find additional past work and citing works that also bore on the questions. The official positions and the supporting literature review are presented here. FRAX(®) underestimates fracture probability in persons with a history of multiple fractures (good, A, W). FRAX(®) may underestimate fracture probability in individuals with prevalent severe vertebral fractures (good, A, W). While there is evidence that hip, vertebral, and humeral fractures appear to confer greater risk of subsequent fracture than fractures at other sites, quantification of this incremental risk in FRAX(®) is not possible (fair, B, W). FRAX(®) may underestimate fracture probability in individuals with a parental history of non-hip fragility fracture (fair, B, W). Limitations of the methodology include performance by a single reviewer, preliminary review of the literature being confined to titles, and secondary review being limited to abstracts. Limitations of the evidence base include publication bias, overrepresentation of persons of European descent in the published studies, and technical differences in the methods used to identify prevalent and incident fractures. Emerging topics for future research include fracture epidemiology in non-European populations and men, the impact of fractures in family members other than parents, and the genetic contribution to fracture risk.

Which prior knowledge? Quantification of in vivo brain 13C MR spectra following 13C glucose infusion using AMARES.

The recent developments in high magnetic field 13C magnetic resonance spectroscopy with improved localization and shimming techniques have led to important gains in sensitivity and spectral resolution of 13C in vivo spectra in the rodent brain, enabling the separation of several 13C isotopomers of glutamate and glutamine. In this context, the assumptions used in spectral quantification might have a significant impact on the determination of the 13C concentrations and the related metabolic fluxes. In this study, the time domain spectral quantification algorithm AMARES (advanced method for accurate, robust and efficient spectral fitting) was applied to 13 C magnetic resonance spectroscopy spectra acquired in the rat brain at 9.4 T, following infusion of [1,6-(13)C2 ] glucose. Using both Monte Carlo simulations and in vivo data, the goal of this work was: (1) to validate the quantification of in vivo 13C isotopomers using AMARES; (2) to assess the impact of the prior knowledge on the quantification of in vivo 13C isotopomers using AMARES; (3) to compare AMARES and LCModel (linear combination of model spectra) for the quantification of in vivo 13C spectra. AMARES led to accurate and reliable 13C spectral quantification similar to those obtained using LCModel, when the frequency shifts, J-coupling constants and phase patterns of the different 13C isotopomers were included as prior knowledge in the analysis.

Gamma Knife radiosurgery after previous microvascular decompression decreases the chances of pain free in classical trigeminal neuralgia

Purpose: To evaluate the safety-efficacy of Gamma Knife surgery (GKS) as a second treatment for classical trigeminal neuralgia (CTN), and the influence of prior microvascular decompression (MVD). Methods: Between July 1992 and November 2010, 737 patients have been operated with GKRS for ITN and prospectively evaluated in Timone University Hospital in Marseille, France. Among these, 54 patients had a previous history of MVD. Radiosurgery using a Gamma Knife (model B or C or Perfexion) was performed on the basis of on both MR and CT targeting. A single 4 mm isocenter was positioned in the cisternal portion of the trigeminal nerve at a median distance of 7.6 mm (range 3.9-11.9) anteriorly to the emergence of the nerve (retrogasserian target). A median maximum dose of 85 Gy (range 70-90) was delivered. Here, the 45 patients with previous MVD and a follow-up longer than one year are evaluated (the patients with megadolichobasilar artery compression and multiple sclerosis were excluded). Results: The median age in this series was 56.75 years (range 28.09-82.39). The median follow-up period was 39.48 months (range 14.10-144.65). All the patients had a past history of surgery, with at least one previous failed MVD, but also radiofrequency lesion (RFL) in 16 patients (35.6%), balloon microcompression in 7 (15.6%) and glycerol rhizotomy in 1 (2.2%). Thirty-five patients (77.8%) were initially pain free after GKS within a median time of 14 days (range 0, 180). Patients from this group had less probability of being pain free compared to our global population of essential trigeminal neuralgia without previous MVD history (p=0.010, hazard ratio of 0.64). Their probability of remaining pain free at 3, 5, 7 and 10 years was 66.5%, 59.1%, 59.1% and 44.3%, respectively. Twelve patients (34.3%) initially pain free experienced a recurrence with a median delay of 31.21 months (range 3.40-89.93). The hypoesthesia actuarial rate at 1 year was 9.1% and remained stable till 12 years with a median delay of onset of 8 months (range 8-8). Conclusions: Retrogasserian GKS proofed to be safe and effective on the long-term basis even after failed previous MVD. Even if the initial result of pain free was only 77.8%, the toxicity was low with only 9.1% hypoesthesia. No patient reported a bothersome hypoesthesia. The probability of maintaining pain relief in the long-term was of 44.3% at 10 years.

A Modulated Closed Form solution for Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping - A thorough evaluation and comparison to iterative methods based on edge prior knowledge.

The aim of this study is to perform a thorough comparison of quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) techniques and their dependence on the assumptions made. The compared methodologies were: two iterative single orientation methodologies minimizing the l2, l1TV norm of the prior knowledge of the edges of the object, one over-determined multiple orientation method (COSMOS) and anewly proposed modulated closed-form solution (MCF). The performance of these methods was compared using a numerical phantom and in-vivo high resolution (0.65mm isotropic) brain data acquired at 7T using a new coil combination method. For all QSM methods, the relevant regularization and prior-knowledge parameters were systematically changed in order to evaluate the optimal reconstruction in the presence and absence of a ground truth. Additionally, the QSM contrast was compared to conventional gradient recalled echo (GRE) magnitude and R2* maps obtained from the same dataset. The QSM reconstruction results of the single orientation methods show comparable performance. The MCF method has the highest correlation (corrMCF=0.95, r(2)MCF =0.97) with the state of the art method (COSMOS) with additional advantage of extreme fast computation time. The l-curve method gave the visually most satisfactory balance between reduction of streaking artifacts and over-regularization with the latter being overemphasized when the using the COSMOS susceptibility maps as ground-truth. R2* and susceptibility maps, when calculated from the same datasets, although based on distinct features of the data, have a comparable ability to distinguish deep gray matter structures.

Progesterone down-regulates the open probability of the amiloride-sensitive epithelial sodium channel via a Nedd4-2-dependent mechanism.

Activation of the mitogen-activated protein (MAP) kinase cascade by progesterone in Xenopus oocytes leads to a marked down-regulation of activity of the amiloride-sensitive epithelial sodium channel (ENaC). Here we have studied the signaling pathways involved in progesterone effect on ENaC activity. We demonstrate that: (i) the truncation of the C termini of the alphabetagammaENaC subunits results in the loss of the progesterone effect on ENaC; (ii) the effect of progesterone was also suppressed by mutating conserved tyrosine residues in the Pro-X-X-Tyr (PY) motif of the C termini of the beta and gamma ENaC subunits (beta(Y618A) and gamma(Y628A)); (iii) the down-regulation of ENaC activity by progesterone was also suppressed by co-expression ENaC subunits with a catalytically inactive mutant of Nedd4-2, a ubiquitin ligase that has been previously demonstrated to decrease ENaC cell-surface expression via a ubiquitin-dependent internalization/degradation mechanism; (iv) the effect of progesterone was significantly reduced by suppression of consensus sites (beta(T613A) and gamma(T623A)) for ENaC phosphorylation by the extracellular-regulated kinase (ERK), a MAP kinase previously shown to facilitate the binding of Nedd4 ubiquitin ligases to ENaC; (v) the quantification of cell-surface-expressed ENaC subunits revealed that progesterone decreases ENaC open probability (whole cell P(o), wcP(o)) and not its cell-surface expression. Collectively, these results demonstrate that the binding of active Nedd4-2 to ENaC is a crucial step in the mechanism of ENaC inhibition by progesterone. Upon activation of ERK, the effect of Nedd4-2 on ENaC open probability can become more important than its effect on ENaC cell-surface expression.

Probability of achieving optimal molecular response to imatinib in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients: Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) relationships observed under field-conditions

Objectives: Imatinib has been increasingly proposed for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), as trough concentrations (Cmin) correlate with response rates in CML patients. This analysis aimed to evaluate the impact of imatinib exposure on optimal molecular response rates in a large European cohort of patients followed by centralized TDM.¦Methods: Sequential PK/PD analysis was performed in NONMEM 7 on 2230 plasma (PK) samples obtained along with molecular response (PD) data from 1299 CML patients. Model-based individual Bayesian estimates of exposure, parameterized as to initial dose adjusted and log-normalized Cmin (log-Cmin) or clearance (CL), were investigated as potential predictors of optimal molecular response, while accounting for time under treatment (stratified at 3 years), gender, CML phase, age, potentially interacting comedication, and TDM frequency. PK/PD analysis used mixed-effect logistic regression (iterative two-stage method) to account for intra-patient correlation.¦Results: In univariate analyses, CL, log-Cmin, time under treatment, TDM frequency, gender (all p<0.01) and CML phase (p=0.02) were significant predictors of the outcome. In multivariate analyses, all but log-Cmin remained significant (p<0.05). Our model estimates a 54.1% probability of optimal molecular response in a female patient with a median CL of 14.4 L/h, increasing by 4.7% with a 35% decrease in CL (percentile 10 of CL distribution), and decreasing by 6% with a 45% increased CL (percentile 90), respectively. Male patients were less likely than female to be in optimal response (odds ratio: 0.62, p<0.001), with an estimated probability of 42.3%.¦Conclusions: Beyond CML phase and time on treatment, expectedly correlated to the outcome, an effect of initial imatinib exposure on the probability of achieving optimal molecular response was confirmed in field-conditions by this multivariate analysis. Interestingly, male patients had a higher risk of suboptimal response, which might not exclusively derive from their 18.5% higher CL, but also from reported lower adherence to the treatment. A prospective longitudinal study would be desirable to confirm the clinical importance of identified covariates and to exclude biases possibly affecting this observational survey.

Comparison of quantiferon-TB gold with tuberculin skin test for detecting latent tuberculosis infection prior to liver transplantation.

Screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is recommended prior to organ transplantation. The Quantiferon-TB Gold assay (QFT-G) may be more accurate than the tuberculin skin test (TST) in the detection of LTBI. We prospectively compared the results of QFT-G to TST in patients with chronic liver disease awaiting transplantation. Patients were screened for LTBI with both the QFT-G test and a TST. Concordance between test results and predictors of a discordant result were determined. Of the 153 evaluable patients, 37 (24.2%) had a positive TST and 34 (22.2%) had a positive QFT-G. Overall agreement between tests was 85.1% (kappa= 0.60, p < 0.0001). Discordant test results were seen in 12 TST positive/QFT-G negative patients and in 9 TST negative/QFT-G positive patients. Prior BCG vaccination was not associated with discordant test results. Twelve patients (7.8%), all with a negative TST, had an indeterminate result of the QFT-G and this was more likely in patients with a low lymphocyte count (p = 0.01) and a high MELD score (p = 0.001). In patients awaiting liver transplantation, both the TST and QFT-G were comparable for the diagnosis of LTBI with reasonable concordance between tests. Indeterminate QFT-G result was more likely in those with more advanced liver disease.