Health care supply, payment system and medical practice : evidence from obstetric practice

ABSTRACTA significant share of deliveries are performed by Cesarian section (C-section) in Europe and in many developed and developing countries. The aims of this thesis are to highlight the non medical, especially economic and financial, incentives that explain the use of C-section, as well as the medical consequences of C-section on women's health, in regard with other factors of ob¬stetrical care quality such as hospital concentration. Those diagnoses enable us to exhibit ways of improvement of obstetrical care quality in France. Our analysis focus on two countries, France and Switzerland. In the first part of the thesis, we show the influence of two non medical factors on the C-section use, namely the hospital payment system on the one hand and the obstetricians behaviour, especially their demand for leisure, on the other hand. With French data on the year 2003, we show firstly that the fee-for-service payment system of private for profit hospitals induces a higher probability of using C-section. Obstetricians play also a preeminent role in the decision to use a C-section, as the probability of a C-section rises with the number of obstetricians. We then focus on a French reform introduced in 2004, to investigate the impact of Prospective Payment System on obstetric practise. We show that the rise of C-section rate between 2003 and 2006 is mainly caused by changes in hospitals and patients features. Obstetricians practises do not vary a lot for patients with the same risk code. In the mean time however, the number of women coded with a high risk rises. This can be caused by improvements in the quality of coding, obstetricians chosing codes that match better the real health state of their patients. Yet, it can also show that obstetricians change their coding practises to justify the use of certain practises, such as C-section, with no regard to the health state of patients. Financial factors are not the only non medical fac¬tors that can influence the resort to C-section. Using Shelton Brown ΠΙ identification strategy, we focus on the potential impact of obstetricians leisure preference on the use of C-section. We use the distributions of days and hours of delivering and the types of C-section - planned or emergency C-sections - to show that the obstetricians demand for leisure has a significant impact on the resort to C-section, but only in emergency situations. The second part of the thesis deals with some ways to improve obstetric care quality. We use on the one hand swiss and french data to study the impact of C-section on the patients' probability of having an obstetric complication and on the other hand the influence of hospital concentration on the quality of obstetric care. We find the same results as former medical studies about the risks entailed by C-section on obstetric complications.These results prove women ought to be better informed of the medical consequences of C-section and that the slowing of C-section use should be a priority of public health policy. We finally focus on another way to improve obstetric care quality, that is hospital lmarket concentration. We investigate the impact of hospital concentration by integrating the Herfindahl-Hirschman index in our model, on health care quality, measured by the HCUP indicator. We find that hospital concentration has a negative impact on obstetric care quality, which undermines today's policy of hospital closings in France.JEL classification: 112; 118Keywords: Hospital; C-section; Payment System; Counterfactual Estimation; Quality of Care.RÉSUMÉUne part importante des accouchements sont réalisés par césarienne en Europe et dans de nom¬breux pays développés ou en développement. Les objectifs de cette thèse sont de mettre en évidence les déterminants non médicaux, notamment économiques et financiers, expliquant le développe¬ment de cette pratique, ainsi que ses conséquences sur la santé des femmes après Γ accouchement, en lien avec d'autres facteurs comme la concentration locale des structures hospitalières. Les résul¬tats exposés dans cette thèse éclairent les perspectives et voies d'amélioration de la qualité des soins en obstétriques.Notre analyse se concentre sur deux pays : la France et la Suisse. Dans la première partie de la thèse, nous mettons en évidence l'influence de deux déterminants non médicaux sur l'emploi de la césarienne : le système de paiement des hôpitaux d'une part, et le comportement des médecins obstétriciens d'autre part. En étudiant des données françaises de 2003, nous montrons d'abord que le financement à l'acte des établissements privés engendre une hausse de la proba¬bilité de pratiquer une césarienne. Le rôle de l'obstrétricien paraît également déterminant dans la décision d'opérer une césarienne, la probabilité d'employer cette technique augmentant avec le nombre d'obstétriciens. Nous nous intéressons ensuite à l'impact de la mise en place en 2004 du système de paiement prospectif sur l'évolution des pratiques obstétricales entre 2003 et 2006 en France. La hausse du taux de recours à la césarienne entre 2004 et 2006 peut ainsi être principa¬lement imputée aux évolutions des caractéristiques des hôpitaux et des patients, les pratiques des obstétriciens, pour un même codage de la situation du patient, variant peu. Dans le même temps cependant, les pratiques de codage des patients parles obstétriciens évoluent fortement, les femmes étant de plus en plus nombreuses à porter des codes correspondant à des situations à risques. Cette évolution peut indiquer que la qualité du codage en 2006 s'est améliorée par rapport à 2004, le codage correspondant de plus en plus à la situation réelle des patientes. H peut aussi indiquer que les pratiques de codage évoluent pour justifier un recours accru à la césarienne, sans lien avec l'état réel des patientes. Les facteurs financiers ne sont pas les seuls facteurs non médicaux à pouvoir expliquer le recours à la césarienne : nous nous intéressons, en suivant la stratégie d'identifica¬tion de Shelton Brown m, à l'impact potentiel de la demande de loisir des médecins obstétriciens sur la pratique de la césarienne. En utilisant la distribution des jours et heures d'accouchement, et en distinguant les césariennes planifiées de celles effectuées en urgence, nous constatons que la demande de loisir des obstétriciens influence significativement le recours à la césarienne, mais uni¬quement pour les interventions d'urgence. La deuxième partie de la thèse est consacrée à l'étude de la qualité des soins en obstétriques. Nous utilisons des données suisses et françaises pour analyser d'une part l'impact de la césarienne sur la survenue de complications obstétricales et d'autre part l'impact de la concentration des soins sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique. Nons confirmons les résultats antérieurs de la littérature médicale sur la dangerosité de la césarienne comme facteur de complications obstétricales. Ces conclusions montrent que les femmes ont besoin d'être informées des conséquences de la césarienne sur leur santé et que le ralentissement de l'augmentation de la pratique de la césarienne devrait être un objectif de la politique publique de santé. Nous nous in¬téressons à un autre facteur d'amélioration des soins en obstrétique, l'organisation des hôpitaux et particulièrement leur concentration. Nous estimons ainsi l'effet de la concentration sur la qualité des soins obstétriques en intégrant l'indice de Herfindahl-Hirschman dans notre modèle, la qualité des soins étant mesurée à l'aide de l'indicateur HCUP. Nous constatons que la concentration des naissances a un impact négatif sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique, résultat qui va dans le sens contraire des politiques de fermeture d'hôpitaux menées actuellement en France. JEL classification : 112 ; 118Mots-clés : Hôpital ; Césarienne ; Système de paiement ; Contrefactuels ; Qualité des soins, sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique.

Supply-side risk adjustment and outlier payment policy

In most health care systems where a prospective payment system is implemented, an outlier payment is used to cover the hospitals' unusually high costs. When the hospital chooses its cost reduction effort before observing a patient's severity, we show that the best outlier payment is based on the realized cost when the hospital exerts the first best level of effort, for any level of severity. [Authors]

Adverse selection, moral hazard, and outlier payment policy

In this article, we analyze the rationale for introducing outlier payments into a prospective payment system for hospitals under adverse selection and moral hazard. The payer has only two instruments: a fixed price for patients whose treatment cost is below a threshold and a cost-sharing rule for outlier patients. We show that a fixed-price policy is optimal when the hospital is sufficiently benevolent. When the hospital is weakly benevolent, a mixed policy solving a trade-off between rent extraction, efficiency, and dumping deterrence must be preferred. We show how the optimal combination of fixed price and partially cost-based payment depends on the degree of benevolence of the hospital, the social cost of public funds, and the distribution of patients severity. [Authors]

A design science approach to support the assessment of disruptive technology : the Swiss mobile payment case

Abstract In this thesis we present the design of a systematic integrated computer-based approach for detecting potential disruptions from an industry perspective. Following the design science paradigm, we iteratively develop several multi-actor multi-criteria artifacts dedicated to environment scanning. The contributions of this thesis are both theoretical and practical. We demonstrate the successful use of multi-criteria decision-making methods for technology foresight. Furthermore, we illustrate the design of our artifacts using build and-evaluate loops supported with a field study of the Swiss mobile payment industry. To increase the relevance of this study, we systematically interview key Swiss experts for each design iteration. As a result, our research provides a realistic picture of the current situation in the Swiss mobile payment market and reveals previously undiscovered weak signals for future trends. Finally, we suggest a generic design process for environment scanning.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Three essays on bankruptcy risk

Abstract Market prices of corporate bond spreads and of credit default swap (CDS) rates do not match each other. In this paper, we argue that the liquidity premium, the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) option and actual market segmentation explain the pricing differences. Using the European transaction data from Reuters and Bloomberg, we estimate the liquidity premium that is time- varying and firm-specific. We show that when time-dependent liquidity premiums are considered, corporate bond spreads and CDS rates behave in a much closer way than previous studies have shown. We find that high equity volatility drives pricing differences that can be explained by the CTD option.

Are virtual planning and guided surgery for head and neck reconstruction economically viable?

PURPOSE: Virtual planning and guided surgery with or without prebent or milled plates are becoming more and more common for mandibular reconstruction with fibular free flaps (FFFs). Although this excellent surgical option is being used more widely, the question of the additional cost of planning and cutting-guide production has to be discussed. In capped payment systems such additional costs have to be offset by other savings if there are no special provisions for extra funding. Our study was designed to determine whether using virtual planning and guided surgery resulted in time saved during surgery and whether this time gain resulted in self-funding of such planning through the time saved. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All consecutive cases of FFF surgery were evaluated during a 2-year period. Institutional data were used to determine the price of 1 minute of operative time. The time for fibula molding, plate adaptation, and insetting was recorded. RESULTS: During the defined period, we performed 20 mandibular reconstructions using FFFs, 9 with virtual planning and guided surgery and 11 freehand cases. One minute of operative time was calculated to cost US $47.50. Multiplying this number by the time saved, we found that the additional cost of virtual planning was reduced from US $5,098 to US $1,231.50 with a prebent plate and from US $6,980 to US $3,113.50 for a milled plate. CONCLUSIONS: Even in capped health care systems, virtual planning and guided surgery including prebent or milled plates are financially viable.

Missed appointments in an adolescent outpatient clinic: descriptive analyses of consultations over 8 years.

Missed appointments represent an important medical and economical issue. Few studies on the subject are reported in the literature, particularly regarding adolescents. Our aim was to characterize missed and cancelled appointments in a multidisciplinary outpatient clinic for adolescents, to assess the effectiveness of a policy aimed at reducing missed appointments by introducing payment for those missed appointments not cancelled in advance, and to compare the rates between staff and resident physicians. A total of 32,816 consultations (representing 35 patients aged 12-20 years, 82.4% females) between 1999 and 200 were analysed. The missed appointment rate was 11.8% whilst another 10.9% were cancellations. Females cancelled more than males (11.3% vs. 8.4%, AOR 1.31, 99% CI 1.08-1.59), but there was no difference for missed appointments (11.6% vs. 12.3%, AOR 0.88, 99% CI 0.61-1.08). April and June to October (vacation months) were associated with more missed appointments. Globally mornings had higher rates of missed appointments than afternoons (13.6% vs. 11.2%, AOR 1.25, 99% CI 1.11-1.40). There was a slight difference in missed appointment rates between staff physicians and residents (10.4%; 11.8%, AOR 1.20, 99% CI 1.08-1.33). Missed appointment rates before and after the new policy on missed appointments were similar (1999-2003: 11.9%; 2004-2006: 11.6%, AOR 0.96, 99% CI 0.83-1.10). Conversely, cancellation rates increased from 8.4% (1999-2003) to 14.5% (2004-2006) (AOR 1.83, 99% CI 1.63-2.05). Attendance rates among adolescents show variations depending on vacation and school hours. Being attentive to these factors could help prevent missed appointments. Although having to pay for missed appointments does not increase attendance, it increases cancellations with the advantage that the appointment can be rescheduled.

Financial protection of patients through compensation of providers: the impact of Health Equity Funds in Cambodia

Public providers have no financial incentive to respect their legal obligation to exempt the poor from user fees. Health Equity Funds (HEFs) aim to make exemptions effective by giving NGOs responsibility for assessing eligibility and compensating providers for lost revenue. We use the geographic spread of HEFs over time in Cambodia to identify their impact on out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Among households with some OOP payment, HEFs reduce the amount paid by 35%, on average. The effect is larger for households that are poorer and mainly use public health care. Reimbursement of providers through a government operated scheme also reduces household OOP payments but the effect is not as well targeted on the poor. Both compensation models raise household non-medical consumption but have no impact on health-related debt. HEFs reduce the probability of primarily seeking care in the private sector.