273 resultados para Predicted value
em Université de Lausanne, Switzerland
Resumo:
Objective:We investigated to what extent changes in metabolic rate and composition of weight loss explained the less-than-expected weight loss in obese men and women during a diet-plus-exercise intervention.Design:In all, 16 obese men and women (41±9 years; body mass index (BMI) 39±6 kg m(-2)) were investigated in energy balance before, after and twice during a 12-week very-low-energy diet(565-650 kcal per day) plus exercise (aerobic plus resistance training) intervention. The relative energy deficit (EDef) from baseline requirements was severe (74%-87%). Body composition was measured by deuterium dilution and dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, and resting metabolic rate (RMR) was measured by indirect calorimetry. Fat mass (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM) were converted into energy equivalents using constants 9.45 kcal per g FM and 1.13 kcal per g FFM. Predicted weight loss was calculated from the EDef using the '7700 kcal kg(-1) rule'.Results:Changes in weight (-18.6±5.0 kg), FM (-15.5±4.3 kg) and FFM (-3.1±1.9 kg) did not differ between genders. Measured weight loss was on average 67% of the predicted value, but ranged from 39% to 94%. Relative EDef was correlated with the decrease in RMR (R=0.70, P<0.01), and the decrease in RMR correlated with the difference between actual and expected weight loss (R=0.51, P<0.01). Changes in metabolic rate explained on average 67% of the less-than-expected weight loss, and variability in the proportion of weight lost as FM accounted for a further 5%. On average, after adjustment for changes in metabolic rate and body composition of weight lost, actual weight loss reached 90% of the predicted values.Conclusion:Although weight loss was 33% lower than predicted at baseline from standard energy equivalents, the majority of this differential was explained by physiological variables. Although lower-than-expected weight loss is often attributed to incomplete adherence to prescribed interventions, the influence of baseline calculation errors and metabolic downregulation should not be discounted.
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An antagonistic effect of voriconazole on the fungicidal activity of sequential doses of amphotericin B has previously been demonstrated in Candida albicans strains susceptible to voriconazole. Because treatment failure and the need to switch to other antifungals are expected to occur more often in infections that are caused by resistant strains, it was of interest to study whether the antagonistic effect was still seen in Candida strains with reduced susceptibility to voriconazole. With the hypothesis that antagonism will not occur in voriconazole-resistant strains, C. albicans strains with characterized mechanisms of resistance against voriconazole, as well as Candida glabrata and Candida krusei strains with differences in their degrees of susceptibility to voriconazole were exposed to voriconazole or amphotericin B alone, to both drugs simultaneously, or to voriconazole followed by amphotericin B in an in vitro kinetic model. Amphotericin B administered alone or simultaneously with voriconazole resulted in fungicidal activity. When amphotericin B was administered after voriconazole, its activity was reduced (median reduction, 61%; range, 9 to 94%). Levels of voriconazole-dependent inhibition of amphotericin B activity differed significantly among the strains but were not correlated with the MIC values (correlation coefficient, -0.19; P = 0.65). Inhibition was found in C. albicans strains with increases in CDR1 and CDR2 expression but not in the strain with an increase in MDR1 expression. In summary, decreased susceptibility to voriconazole does not abolish voriconazole-dependent inhibition of the fungicidal activity of amphotericin B in voriconazole-resistant Candida strains. The degree of interaction could not be predicted by the MIC value alone.
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ACuteTox is a project within the 6th European Framework Programme which had as one of its goals to develop, optimise and prevalidate a non-animal testing strategy for predicting human acute oral toxicity. In its last 6 months, a challenging exercise was conducted to assess the predictive capacity of the developed testing strategies and final identification of the most promising ones. Thirty-two chemicals were tested blind in the battery of in vitro and in silico methods selected during the first phase of the project. This paper describes the classification approaches studied: single step procedures and two step tiered testing strategies. In summary, four in vitro testing strategies were proposed as best performing in terms of predictive capacity with respect to the European acute oral toxicity classification. In addition, a heuristic testing strategy is suggested that combines the prediction results gained from the neutral red uptake assay performed in 3T3 cells, with information on neurotoxicity alerts identified by the primary rat brain aggregates test method. Octanol-water partition coefficients and in silico prediction of intestinal absorption and blood-brain barrier passage are also considered. This approach allows to reduce the number of chemicals wrongly predicted as not classified (LD50>2000 mg/kg b.w.).
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Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The posterior circulation Acute Stroke Prognosis Early CT Score (pc-ASPECTS) quantifies the extent of early ischemic changes in the posterior circulation with a 10-point grading system. We hypothesized that pc-ASPECTS applied to CT angiography source images predicts functional outcome of patients in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS). METHODS: BASICS was a prospective, observational registry of consecutive patients with acute symptomatic basilar artery occlusion. Functional outcome was assessed at 1 month. We applied pc-ASPECTS to CT angiography source images of patients with CT angiography for confirmation of basilar artery occlusion. We calculated unadjusted and adjusted risk ratios (RRs) of pc-ASPECTS dichotomized at ≥8 versus <8. Primary outcome measure was favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale scores 0-3). Secondary outcome measures were mortality and functional independence (modified Rankin Scale scores 0-2). RESULTS: Of 158 patients included, 78 patients had a CT angiography source images pc-ASPECTS≥8. Patients with a pc-ASPECTS≥8 more often had a favorable outcome than patients with a pc-ASPECTS<8 (crude RR, 1.7; 95% CI, 0.98-3.0). After adjustment for age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, and thrombolysis, pc-ASPECTS≥8 was not related to favorable outcome (RR, 1.3; 95% CI, 0.8-2.2), but it was related to reduced mortality (RR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5-0.98) and functional independence (RR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.8). In post hoc analysis, pc-ASPECTS dichotomized at ≥6 versus <6 predicted a favorable outcome (adjusted RR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.2-7.5). CONCLUSIONS: pc-ASPECTS on CT angiography source images independently predicted death and functional independence at 1 month in the CT angiography subgroup of patients in the BASICS registry.
Resumo:
Small daily positive energy imbalances of 200 to 800 kJ (about 50 to 200 kcal) due to reduced resting energy expenditure (REE), reduced diet-induced thermogenesis, or physical inactivity are believed to predispose to obesity. However, estimates of the magnitude of the weight gain often fail to account for concurrent changes in body composition and increases in maintenance energy requirements as weight increases and energy equilibrium is re-established. Using previously reported data on body composition and REE in women and the energy cost of tissue deposition, we used mathematical models to predict the theoretical effect of a persistent reduction in energy expenditure on long-term weight gain, assuming no adaptation in energy intake. The analyses indicate the following effects of a reduced level of energy expenditure in lean and obese women: (i) REE rises more slowly with increasing degrees of obesity due to a declining proportion of the more metabolically active fat-free mass; so, for the same positive energy balance, a significantly greater weight gain is expected for obese than for lean women before energy equilibrium is re-established; (ii) due to the greater energy density of adipose tissue, the time course of weight gain to achieve energy balance is longer for obese subjects: in general, this is approximately five years for lean and ten years for obese women; (iii) the magnitude of weight gain of lean women in response to a reduced energy expenditure of 200 to 800 kJ/day is only about 3 to 15 kg, amounts insufficient to explain severe obesity.
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The impact of depressed neonatal cerebral oxidative phosphorylation for diagnosing the severity of perinatal asphyxia was estimated by correlating the concentrations of phosphocreatine (PCr) and ATP as determined by magnetic resonance spectroscopy with the degree of hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) in 23 asphyxiated term neonates. Ten healthy age-matched neonates served as controls. In patients, the mean concentrations +/- SD of PCr and ATP were 0.99 +/- 0.46 mmol/L (1.6 +/- 0.2 mmol/L) and 0.99 +/- 0.35 mmol/L (1.7 +/- 0.2 mmol/L), respectively (normal values in parentheses). [PCr] and [ATP] correlated significantly with the severity of HIE (r = 0.85 and 0.9, respectively, p < 0.001), indicating that the neonatal encephalopathy is the clinical manifestation of a marred brain energy metabolism. Neurodevelopmental outcome was evaluated in 21 children at 3, 9, and 18 mo. Seven infants had multiple impairments, five were moderately handicapped, five had only mild symptoms, and four were normal. There was a significant correlation between the cerebral concentrations of PCr or ATP at birth and outcome (r = 0.8, p < 0.001) and between the degree of neonatal neurologic depression and outcome (r = 0.7). More important, the outcome of neonates with moderate HIE could better be predicted with information from quantitative 31P magnetic resonance spectroscopy than from neurologic examinations. In general, the accuracy of outcome predictability could significantly be increased by adding results from 31P magnetic resonance spectroscopy to the neonatal neurologic score, but not vice versa. No correlation with outcome was found for other perinatal risk factors, including Apgar score.
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Recent research has shown that, in a University context, mastery goals are highly valued, and that students may endorse these goals either because they believe in their utility (i.e., social utility), in which case mastery goals are positively linked to achievement, or to create a positive image of themselves (i.e., social desirability), in which case mastery goals do not predict academic achievement. The present two experiments induced high vs. neutral levels of mastery goals' social utility and social desirability. Results confirmed that mastery goals predicted performance only when these goals were presented as socially useful but not socially desirable, especially among low achievers, those who need mastery goals the most to succeed.
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Georgia is known for its extraordinary rich biodiversity of plants, which may now be threatened due to the spread of invasive alien plants (IAP). We aimed to identify (i) the most prominent IAP out of 9 selected potentially invasive and harmful IAP IAP by predicting thetheir distribution of 9 selected IAP under current and future climate conditions in Georgia as well as in its 43 Protected Areas, as a proxy for areas of high conservation value and (ii) the Protected Areas most at risk due to these IAP. We used species distribution models based on 6 climate variables and then filtered the obtained distributions based on maps of soil and vegetation types, and on recorded occurrences, resulting into the predicted ecological distribution of the 9 IAP's at a resolution of 1km2. We foundOur habitat suitability analysis showed that Ambrosia artemisiifolia, (24% and 40%) Robinia pseudoacaia (14% and 19%) and Ailanthus altissima (9% and 11%) have the largest potential distribution are the most abundant (predicted % area covered)d) IAP, with Ailanthus altissima the potentially most increasing one over the next fifty years (from 9% to 13% and from 11% to 25%), for Georgia and the Protected Areas, respectively. Furthermore, our results show indicate two areas in Georgia that are under specifically high threat, i.e. the area around Tbilisi and an area in the western part of Georgia (Adjara), both at lower altitudes. Our procedure to identify areas of high conservation value most at risk by IAP has been applied for the first time. It will help national authorities in prioritizing their measures to protect Georgia's outstanding biodiversity from the negative impact of IAP.
Resumo:
PURPOSE: To determine the value of applying finger trap distraction during direct MR arthrography of the wrist to assess intrinsic ligament and triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC) tears. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty consecutive patients were prospectively investigated by three-compartment wrist MR arthrography. Imaging was performed with 3-T scanners using a three-dimensional isotropic (0.4 mm) T1-weighted gradient-recalled echo sequence, with and without finger trap distraction (4 kg). In a blind and independent fashion, two musculoskeletal radiologists measured the width of the scapholunate (SL), lunotriquetral (LT) and ulna-TFC (UTFC) joint spaces. They evaluated the amount of contrast medium within these spaces using a four-point scale, and assessed SL, LT and TFCC tears, as well as the disruption of Gilula's carpal arcs. RESULTS: With finger trap distraction, both readers found a significant increase in width of the SL space (mean Δ = +0.1mm, p ≤ 0.040), and noticed more contrast medium therein (p ≤ 0.035). In contrast, the differences in width of the LT (mean Δ = +0.1 mm, p ≥ 0.057) and UTFC (mean Δ = 0mm, p ≥ 0.728) spaces, as well as the amount of contrast material within these spaces were not statistically significant (p = 0.607 and ≥ 0.157, respectively). Both readers detected more SL (Δ = +1, p = 0.157) and LT (Δ = +2, p = 0.223) tears, although statistical significance was not reached, and Gilula's carpal arcs were more frequently disrupted during finger trap distraction (Δ = +5, p = 0.025). CONCLUSION: The application of finger trap distraction during direct wrist MR arthrography may enhance both detection and characterisation of SL and LT ligament tears by widening the SL space and increasing the amount of contrast within the SL and LT joint spaces.
Resumo:
We reviewed our surgery registry, to identify predictive risk factors for operative results, and to analyse the long-term survival outcome in octogenarians operated for primary isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). A total of 124 consecutive octogenarians underwent open AVR from January 1990 to December 2005. Combined procedures and redo surgery were excluded. Selected variables were studied as risk factors for hospital mortality and early neurological events. A follow-up (FU; mean FU time: 77 months) was obtained (90% complete), and Kaplan-Meier plots were used to determine survival rates. The mean age was 82+/-2.2 (range: 80-90 years; 63% females). Of the group, four patients (3%) required urgent procedures, 10 (8%) had a previous myocardial infarction, six (5%) had a previous coronary angioplasty and stenting, 13 patients (10%) suffered from angina and 59 (48%) were in the New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III-IV. We identified 114 (92%) degenerative stenosis, six (5%) post-rheumatic stenosis and four (3%) active endocarditis. The predicted mortality calculated by logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) was 12.6+/-5.7%, and the observed hospital mortality was 5.6%. Causes of death included severe cardiac failure (four patients), multi-organ failure (two) and sepsis (one). Complications were transitory neurological events in three patients (2%), short-term haemodialysis in three (2%), atrial fibrillation in 60 (48%) and six patients were re-operated for bleeding. Atrio-ventricular block, myocardial infarction or permanent stroke was not detected. The age at surgery and the postoperative renal failure were predictors for hospital mortality (p value <0.05), whereas we did not find predictors for neurological events. The mean FU time was 77 months (6.5 years) and the mean age of surviving patients was 87+/-4 years (81-95 years). The actuarial survival estimates at 5 and 10 years were 88% and 50%, respectively. Our experience shows good short-term results after primary isolated standard AVR in patients more than 80 years of age. The FU suggests that aortic valve surgery in octogenarians guarantees satisfactory long-term survival rates and a good quality of life, free from cardiac re-operations. In the era of catheter-based aortic valve implantation, open-heart surgery for AVR remains the standard of care for healthy octogenarians.
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This study aimed at identifying clinical factors for predicting hematologic toxicity after radioimmunotherapy with (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan or (131)I-tositumomab in clinical practice. Hematologic data were available from 14 non-Hodgkin lymphoma patients treated with (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan and 18 who received (131)I-tositumomab. The percentage baseline at nadir and 4 wk post nadir and the time to nadir were selected as the toxicity indicators for both platelets and neutrophils. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to identify significant predictors (P < 0.05) of each indicator. For both platelets and neutrophils, pooled and separate analyses of (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan and (131)I-tositumomab data yielded the time elapsed since the last chemotherapy as the only significant predictor of the percentage baseline at nadir. The extent of bone marrow involvement was not a significant factor in this study, possibly because of the short time elapsed since the last chemotherapy of the 7 patients with bone marrow involvement. Because both treatments were designed to deliver a comparable bone marrow dose, this factor also was not significant. None of the 14 factors considered was predictive of the time to nadir. The R(2) value for the model predicting percentage baseline at nadir was 0.60 for platelets and 0.40 for neutrophils. This model predicted the platelet and neutrophil toxicity grade to within ±1 for 28 and 30 of the 32 patients, respectively. For the 7 patients predicted with grade I thrombocytopenia, 6 of whom had actual grade I-II, dosing might be increased to improve treatment efficacy. The elapsed time since the last chemotherapy can be used to predict hematologic toxicity and customize the current dosing method in radioimmunotherapy.