Social Investment Policies in Times of Permanent Austerity

The objective of this paper is to identify the political conditions that are most likely to be conducive to the development of social investment policies. It starts from the view put forward by theorists of welfare retrenchment that in the current context of permanent austerity, policy is likely to be dominated by retrenchment and implemented in a way that allows governments to minimise the risk of electoral punishment (blame avoidance). It is argued that this view is inconsistent with developments observed in several European countries, were some welfare state expansion has taken place mostly in the fields of childcare and active labour market policy. An alternative model is put forward, that emphasises the notion of "affordable credit claiming". It is argued that even under strong budgetary pressures, governments maintain a preference for policies that allow them to claim credit for their actions. Since the traditional redistributive policies tend to be off the menu for cost reasons, governments have tended to favour investments in childcare and active labour market policy as credit claiming tools. Policies developed in this way while they have a social investment flavour, tend to be rather limited in the extent to which they genuinely improve prospects of disadvantaged people by investing in their human capital. A more ambitious strategy of social investment sees unlikely to develop on the basis of affordable credit claiming. The paper starts by presenting the theoretical argument, which is then illustrated with examples taken from European countries both in the pre-crisis and in the post-crisis years.

Geochronological constraints on post-extinction recovery of the ammonoids and carbon cycle perturbations during the Early Jurassic

This paper presents the first quantitative study of the Early Jurassic recovery of ammonoids after the end-Triassic mass extinction based on detailed U-Pb ID-TIMS (isotope dilution thermal ionization mass spectrometry) geochronology from ash bed zircons placed within a clear phylogenetical and biochronological framework at the subzonal and species level. This study was triggered by the discovery of a rich Peruvian succession of ammonites, deposited concomitantly with an unusually large number of ash beds. Two major phases of rediversification are observed during the Psiloceras spelae and Angulaticeras zones that correspond to positive peaks in the delta C-13(org) curve, providing a possible link between biodiversity and the global carbon cycle. In the case of the post-extinction recovery, the development of the earliest Hettangian ammonites occurs within the genus Psiloceras, which begins with the occurrence of P. spelae and then explodes into worldwide development of smooth psiloceratids of the Psiloceras planorbis group s.l. This rapid biodiversification likely occurred less than 100 ka after the end-Triassic crisis; the genus Psiloceras occupied all the possible ecological niches worldwide, from the Pacific deep waters to the NW European shallow deposits and also in some rare Tethyan occurrences like at Germig in Tibet. This global dispersion allowed the differentiation of the group in several major phyla, the Schlotheimiidae, Discamphiceratinae, Arietitidae and Lytocerataceae, which were the roots of all other Jurassic and Cretaceous ammonites. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.