254 resultados para Population allocation

em Université de Lausanne, Switzerland


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SUMMARYIn the context of the biodiversity crisis, amphibians are experiencing the most severe worldwide decline of all vertebrates and are in urgent need of better management. Efficient conservation strategies rely on sound knowledge of the species biology and of the genetic and demographic processes that might impair their welfare. Nonetheless, these processes are poorly understood in amphibians. Delineating population boundaries remains consequently problematic for these species, while it is of critical importance to define adequate management units for conservation. In this study, our attention focused on the alpine salamander (Salamandra atra), a species that deserves much interest in terms of both conservation biology and evolution. This endemic alpine species shows peculiar life-history traits (viviparity, reduced activity period, slow maturation) and has a slow population turnover, which might be problematic for its persistence in a changing environment. Due to its elusive behaviour (individuals spend most of their time underground and are unavailable for sampling), dynamic processes of gene and individuals were poorly understood for that species. Consequently, its conservation status could hardly be reliably assessed. Similarly the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) also poses special challenges for conservation, as no clear demarcation of geographical populations exists and dispersal patterns are poorly known. Through a phylogeographic analysis, we first studied the evolutionary history of the alpine salamander to better document the distribution of the genetic diversity along its geographical range. This study highlighted the presence of multiple divergent lineages in Italy together with a clear genetic divergence between populations from Northern and Dinaric Alps. These signs of cryptic genetic differentiation, which are not accounted for by the current taxonomy of the species, should not be neglected for further definition of conservation units. In addition, our data supported glacial survival of the species in northern peripheral glacial réfugia and nunataks, a pattern rarely documented for long-lived species. Then, we evaluated the level of gene flow between populations at the local scale and tested for asymmetries in male versus female dispersal using both field-based (mark-recapture) and genetic approaches. This study revealed high level of gene flow between populations, which stems mainly from male dispersal. This corroborated the idea that salamanders are much better dispersers than hitherto thought and provided a well- supported example of male-biased dispersal in amphibians. In a third step, based on a mark- recapture survey, we addressed the problem of sampling unavailability in alpine salamanders and evaluated its impact on two monitoring methods. We showed that about three quarters of individuals were unavailable for sampling during sampling sessions, a proportion that can vary with climatic conditions. If not taken into account, these complexities would result in false assumptions on population trends and misdirect conservation efforts. Finally, regarding the daunting task of delineating management units, our attention was drawn on the fire salamander. We conducted a local population genetic study that revealed high levels of gene flow among sampling sites. Management units for this species should consequently be large. Interestingly, despite the presence of several landscape features often reported to act as barriers, genetic breaks occurred at unexpected places. This suggests that landscape features may rather have idiosyncratic effects on population structure. In conclusion, this work brought new insights on both genetic and demographic processes occurring in salamanders. The results suggest that some biological paradigms should be taken with caution when particular species are in focus. Species- specific studies remain thus fundamental for a better understanding of species evolution and conservation, particularly in the context of current global changes.RESUMEDans le contexte de la crise de la biodiversité actuelle, les amphibiens subissent le déclin le plus important de tous les vertébrés et ont urgemment besoin d'une meilleure protection. L'établissement de stratégies de conservation efficaces repose sur des connaissances solides de la biologie des espèces et des processus génétiques et démographiques pouvant menacer leur survie. Ces processus sont néanmoins encore peu étudiés chez les amphibiens.Dans cette étude, notre attention s'est portée sur la salamandre noire (Salamandra atra), une espèce endémique des Alpes dont les traits d'histoire de vie atypiques (viviparité, phase d'activité réduite, lent turnover des populations) pourraient la rendre très vulnérable face aux changements environnementaux. Par ailleurs, en raison de son comportement cryptique (les individus passent la plupart de leur temps sous terre) la dynamique des gènes et des individus est mal comprise chez cette espèce. Il est donc difficile d'évaluer son statut de conservation de manière fiable. La salamandre tachetée {Salamandra salamandra), pour qui il n'existe aucune démarcation géographique apparente des populations, pose également des problèmes en termes de gestion. Dans un premier temps, nous avons étudié l'histoire évolutive de la salamandre noire afin de mieux décrire la distribution de sa diversité génétique au sein de son aire géographique. Cela a permis de mettre en évidence la présence de multiples lignées en Italie, ainsi qu'une nette divergence entre les populations du nord des Alpes et des Alpes dinariques. Ces résultats seront à prendre en compte lorsqu'il s'agira de définir des unités de conservation pour cette espèce. D'autre part, nos données soutiennent l'hypothèse d'une survie glaciaire dans des refuges nordiques périglaciaires ou dans des nunataks, fait rarement documenté pour une espèce longévive. Nous avons ensuite évalué la différentiation génétique des populations à l'échelle locale, ce qui a révélé d'important flux de gènes, ainsi qu'une asymétrie de dispersion en faveur des mâles. Ces résultats corroborent l'idée que les amphibiens dispersent mieux que ce que l'on pensait, et fournissent un exemple robuste de dispersion biaisée en faveur des mâles chez les amphibiens. Nous avons ensuite abordé le problème de Γ inaccessibilité des individus à la capture. Nous avons montré qu'environ trois quarts des individus sont inaccessibles lors des échantillonnages, une proportion qui peut varier en fonction des conditions climatiques. Ignoré, ce processus pourrait entraîner une mauvaise interprétation des fluctuations de populations ainsi qu'une mauvaise allocation des efforts de conservation. Concernant la définition d'unités de gestion pour la salamandre tachetée, nous avons pu mettre en évidence un flux de gènes important entre les sites échantillonnés. Les unités de gestion pour cette espèce devraient donc être étendues. Etonnamment, malgré la présence de nombreuses barrières potentielles au flux de gènes, les démarcations génétiques sont apparues à des endroits inattendus. En conclusion, ce travail a apporté une meilleure compréhension des processus génétiques et démographiques en action chez les salamandres. Les résultats suggèrent que certains paradigmes biologiques devraient être considérés avec précaution quand il s'agit de les appliquer à des espèces particulières. Les études spécifiques demeurent donc fondamentales pour une meilleure compréhension de l'évolution des espèces et leur conservation, tout particulièrement dans le contexte des changements globaux actuels.

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Sex allocation data in eusocial Hymenoptera (ants, bees and wasps) provide an excellent opportunity to assess the effectiveness of kin selection, because queens and workers differ in their relatedness to females and males. The first studies on sex allocation in eusocial Hymenoptera compared population sex investment ratios across species. Female-biased investment in monogyne (= with single-queen colonies) populations of ants suggested that workers manipulate sex allocation according to their higher relatedness to females than males (relatedness asymmetry). However, several factors may confound these comparisons across species. First, variation in relatedness asymmetry is typically associated with major changes in breeding system and life history that may also affect sex allocation. Secondly, the relative cost of females and males is difficult to estimate across sexually dimorphic taxa, such as ants. Thirdly, each species in the comparison may not represent an independent data point, because of phylogenetic relationships among species. Recently, stronger evidence that workers control sex allocation has been provided by intraspecific studies of sex ratio variation across colonies. In several species of eusocial Hymenoptera, colonies with high relatedness asymmetry produced mostly females, in contrast to colonies with low relatedness asymmetry which produced mostly males. Additional signs of worker control were found by investigating proximate mechanisms of sex ratio manipulation in ants and wasps. However, worker control is not always effective, and further manipulative experiments will be needed to disentangle the multiple evolutionary factors and processes affecting sex allocation in eusocial Hymenoptera.

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In androdioecious metapopulations, where males co-occur with hermaphrodites, the absence of males from certain populations or regions may be explained by locally high selfing rates, high hermaphrodite outcross siring success (e.g. due to high pollen production by hermaphrodites), or to stochastic processes (e.g. the failure of males to invade populations or regions following colonization or range expansion by hermaphrodites). In the Iberian Peninsula and Morocco, the presence of males with hermaphrodites in the wind-pollinated androdioecious plant Mercurialis annua (Euphorbiaceae) varies both among populations within relatively small regions and among regions, with some regions lacking males from all populations. The species is known to have expanded its range into the Iberian Peninsula from a southern refugium. To account for variation in male presence in M. annua, we test the following hypotheses: (1) that males are absent in areas where plant densities are lower, because selfing rates should be correspondingly higher; (2) that males are absent in areas where hermaphrodites produce more pollen; and (3) that males are absent in areas where there is an elevated proportion of populations in which plant density and hermaphrodite pollen production disfavour their invasion. We found support for predictions two and three in Morocco (the putative Pleistocene refugium for M. annua) but no support for any hypothesis in Iberia (the expanded range). Our results are partially consistent with a hypothesis of sex-allocation equilibrium for populations in Morocco; in Iberia, the absence of males from large geographical regions is more consistent with a model of sex-ratio evolution in a metapopulation with recurrent population turnover. Our study points to the role of both frequency-dependent selection and contingencies imposed by colonization during range expansions and in metapopulations.

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In eusocial Hymenoptera, queens and workers are in conflict over optimal sex allocation. Sex ratio theory, while generating predictions on the extent of this conflict under a wide range of conditions, has largely neglected the fact that worker control of investment almost certainly requires the manipulation of brood sex ratio. This manipulation is likely to incur costs, for example, if workers eliminate male larvae or rear more females as sexuals rather than workers. In this article, we present a model of sex ratio evolution under worker control that incorporates costs of brood manipulation. We assume cost to be a continuous, increasing function of the magnitude of sex ratio manipulation. We demonstrate that costs counterselect sex ratio biasing, which leads to less female-biased population sex ratios than expected on the basis of relatedness asymmetry. Furthermore, differently shaped cost functions lead to different equilibria of manipulation at the colony level. While linear and accelerating cost functions generate monomorphic equilibria, decelerating costs lead to a process of evolutionary branching and hence split sex ratios.

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The expression of DNA topoisomerase II alpha and beta genes was studied in murine normal tissues. Northern blot analysis using probes specific for the two genes showed that the patterns of expression were different among 22 tissues of adult mice. Expression levels of topoisomerase II alpha gene were high in proliferating tissues, such as bone marrow and spleen, and undetectable or low in 17 other tissues. In contrast, high or intermediate expression of topoisomerase II beta gene was found in a variety of tissues (15) of adult mice, including those with no proliferating cells. Topoisomerase II gene expression was also studied during murine development. In whole embryos both genes were expressed at higher levels in early than late stages of embryogenesis. Heart, brain and liver of embryos two days before delivery, and these same tissues plus lung and thymus of newborn (1-day-old) mice expressed appreciable levels of the two genes. Interestingly, a post-natal induction of the beta gene expression was observed in the brain but not in the liver; conversely, the expression of the alpha gene was increased 1 day after birth in the liver but not in the brain. However, gene expression of a proliferation-associated enzyme, thymidylate synthase, was similar in these tissues between embryos and newborns. Thus, the two genes were differentially regulated in the post-natal period, and a tissue-specific role may be suggested for the two isoenzymes in the development of differentiated tissues such as the brain and liver. Based on the differential patterns of expression of the two isoforms, this analysis indicates that topoisomerase II alpha may be a specific marker of cell proliferation, whereas topoisomerase II beta may be implicated in functions of DNA metabolism other than replication.

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While adaptive adjustment of sex ratio in the function of colony kin structure and food availability commonly occurs in social Hymenoptera, long-term studies have revealed substantial unexplained between-year variation in sex ratio at the population level. In order to identify factors that contribute to increased between-year variation in population sex ratio, we conducted a comparative analysis across 47 Hymenoptera species differing in their breeding system. We found that between-year variation in population sex ratio steadily increased as one moved from solitary species, to primitively eusocial species, to single-queen eusocial species, to multiple-queen eusocial species. Specifically, between-year variation in population sex ratio was low (6.6% of total possible variation) in solitary species, which is consistent with the view that in solitary species, sex ratio can vary only in response to fluctuations in ecological factors such as food availability. In contrast, we found significantly higher (19.5%) between-year variation in population sex ratio in multiple-queen eusocial species, which supports the view that in these species, sex ratio can also fluctuate in response to temporal changes in social factors such as queen number and queen-worker control over sex ratio, as well as factors influencing caste determination. The simultaneous adjustment of sex ratio in response to temporal fluctuations in ecological and social factors seems to preclude the existence of a single sex ratio optimum. The absence of such an optimum may reflect an additional cost associated with the evolution of complex breeding systems in Hymenoptera societies.

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Summary The evolution of social structures and breeding systems in animals is a complex process that combines ecological, genetical and social factors. This thesis sheds light on important changes in population genetics, life-history and social behavior that are associated with variation in social structure in ants. The socially polymorphic ant Formica selysi was chosen as the model organism because single- and multiple-queen colonies occur in close proximity within a single large population. The shift from single- to multiple-queen colonies is generally associated with profound changes in dispersal behavior and mode of colony founding. In chapter 1, we examine the genetic consequences of variation in social structure at both the colony and population levels. A detailed microsatellite analysis reveals that both colony types have similar mating systems, with few or no queen turnover. Furthermore, the complete lack of genetic differentiation observed between single- and multiple-queen colonies provides no support to the hypothesis that change in queen number leads to restricted gene flow between social forms. Besides changes in the genetic composition of the colony, the variation in the number of queens per colony is associated with changes in a network of behavioral and life-history traits that have been described as forming a "polygyny syndrome". In chapter 2, we demonstrate that multiple-queen colonies profoundly differ from single-queen ones in terms of size, nest density and lifespan of colonies, in weight of queens produced, as well as in allocation to reproductive individuals relative to workers. These multifaceted changes in life-history traits can provide various fitness benefits to members of multiple-queen colonies. Increasing the number of queens in a colony usually results in a decreased level of aggression towards non-nestmates. The phenotype matching hypothesis predicts that, compared to single-queen colonies, multiple-queen colonies have more diverse genetically-derived cues used for recognition, resulting in a lower ability to discriminate non-nestmates. In sharp contrast to this hypothesis, we show in chapter 3 that single- and multiple-queen colonies exhibit on average similar levels of aggression. Moreover, stronger aggression is recorded between colonies of different social structure than between colonies of the same social structure. Several hypotheses propose that the evolution of multiple-queen colonies is at least partly due to benefits resulting from an increase in colony genetic diversity. The task-efficiency hypothesis holds that genetic variation improves task performance due to a more complete or more sensitive expression of the genetically-based division of labor. In .chapter 4, we evaluate if higher colony genetic diversity increases worker size polymorphism and thus may improve division of labor. We show that despite the fact that worker size has a heritable component, higher levels of genetic diversity do not result in more polymorphic workers. The smaller size and lower polymorphism levels of workers of multiple-queen colonies compared to single-queen ones further indicate that an increase in colony genetic diversity does not increase worker size polymorphism but might improve colony homeostasis. In chapter 5, we provide clear evidence for an ongoing conflict between queens and workers on sex allocation, as predicted by kin selection theory. Our data show that queens of F. selysi strongly influence colony sex allocation by biasing the sex ratio of their eggs. However, there is also evidence that workers eliminated some male brood, resulting in a population sex-investment ratio that is between the queens' and workers' equilibria. Résumé L'évolution des structures sociales et systèmes d'accouplement chez les animaux est un processus complexe combinant à la fois des facteurs écologiques, génétiques et sociaux. Cette thèse met en lumière des changements importants dans la génétique des populations, les traits d'histoire de vie et les comportements sociaux qui sont associés à des variations de structure sociale chez les fourmis. Durant ce travail, nous avons étudié une population de Formica selysi composée à la fois de colonies à une reine et de colonies à plusieurs reines. La transition de colonie à une reine à colonie à plusieurs reines est généralement associée à des changements profonds dans le comportement de dispersion ainsi que le mode de fondation des sociétés. Dans le chapitre 1, nous examinons les conséquences génétiques de la variation de structure sociale tant au niveau de la colonie qu'au niveau de la population. Une analyse détaillée à l'aide de marqueurs microsatellites nous révèle que les deux types de colonies ont des systèmes d'accouplements similaires avec peu ou pas de renouvellement de reines. L'absence totale de différenciation génétique entre les colonies à une et à plusieurs reines n'apporte aucun support à l'hypothèse selon laquelle un changement dans le nombre de reines conduit à un flux de gènes restreint entre les deux formes sociales. A côté de changements dans la composition génétique de la colonie, la variation du nombre de reines dans une colonie est associée à une multitude de changements comportementaux et de traits d'histoire de vie qui ont été décrits comme formant un "syndrome polygyne". Dans le chapitre 2, nous démontrons que les colonies à plusieurs reines diffèrent profondément des colonies à une reine en terme de taille, densité de nids, longévité des colonies, poids des nouvelles reines produites ainsi que dans l'allocation entre les individus reproducteurs et les ouvrières. Ces changements multiples dans les traits d'histoire de vie peuvent apporter des bénéfices variés en terme de fitness aux colonies à plusieurs reines. L'augmentation du nombre de reines dans une colonie est généralement associée à une baisse du degré d'agressivité envers les fourmis étrangères au nid. L'hypothèse "phénotype matching" prédit que les colonies à plusieurs reines ont une plus grande diversité dans les facteurs d'origine génétique utilisés pour la reconnaissance, résultant en une capacité diminuée à discriminer une fourmi étrangère au nid. Contrairement à cette hypothèse, nous montrons dans le chapitre 3 que les colonies à une et à plusieurs reines ont des niveaux d'agressivité similaires. De plus, une agressivité accrue est observée entre colonies de structures sociales différentes comparée à des colonies de même structure sociale. Plusieurs hypothèses ont proposé que l'évolution de colonies ä plusieurs reines soit en partie due aux bénéfices résultant d'une augmentation de la diversité génétique dans la colonie. L'hypothèse "task efficiency" prédit que la diversité génétique améliore l'efficacité à effectuer certaines tâches grâce à une expression plus complète et plus souple d'une division du travail génétiquement déterminée. Nous évaluons dans le chapitre 4 si un accroissement de la diversité génétique augmente le polymorphisme de taille des ouvrières, d'où peut ainsi découler une meilleure division du travail. Nous montrons qu'en dépit du fait que la taille des ouvrières soit un caractère héritable, une forte diversité génétique ne se traduit pas par un plus fort polymorphisme chez les ouvrières. Les ouvrières de colonies à plusieurs reines sont plus petites et moins polymorphes que celles des colonies à une seule reine. Dans le chapitre 5, nous démontrons l'existence d'un conflit ouvert entre reines et ouvrières à propos de l'allocation dans les sexes, comme le prédit la théorie de la sélection de parentèle. Nos données révèlent que les reines de F. selysi influencent fortement l'allocation dans les sexes en biaisant la sexe ratio des oeufs. Cependant, certains indices indiquent que les ouvrières éliminent une partie du couvain mâle, ce qui a pour effet d'avoir un investissement dans les sexes au niveau de la population intermédiaire entre les intérêts des reines et des ouvrières.

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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Changes in the sex allocation (i.e. in pollen versus seed production) of hermaphroditic plants often occur in response to the environment. In some homosporous ferns, gametophytes choose their gender in response to chemical cues sent by neighbours, such that spores develop as male gametophytes if they perceive a female or hermaphrodite nearby. Here it is considered whether a similar process might occur in the androdioecious angiosperm species Mercurialis annua, in which males co-occur with hermaphrodites; previous work on a Spanish population of M. annua found that individuals were more likely to develop as males at high density. METHODS: Using a novel approach to treat plants with leachate from pots containing males or hermaphrodites of M. annua, the hypothesis that individuals assess their mating opportunities, and adjust their sex expression accordingly, was tested through an exchange of chemical cues through the soil. KEY RESULTS: For the population under study, from Morocco, no evidence was found for soil-signal-dependent sex expression: neither sex ratios nor sex allocation differed among experimental treatments. CONCLUSIONS: The results imply either that the Moroccan population under study behaves differently from that previously studied in Spain (pointing to potential geographical variation in plasticity for sex expression), or that our method failed to capture the signals used by M. annua for adjustment of sex expression.

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Many traits and/or strategies expressed by organisms are quantitative phenotypes. Because populations are of finite size and genomes are subject to mutations, these continuously varying phenotypes are under the joint pressure of mutation, natural selection and random genetic drift. This article derives the stationary distribution for such a phenotype under a mutation-selection-drift balance in a class-structured population allowing for demographically varying class sizes and/or changing environmental conditions. The salient feature of the stationary distribution is that it can be entirely characterized in terms of the average size of the gene pool and Hamilton's inclusive fitness effect. The exploration of the phenotypic space varies exponentially with the cumulative inclusive fitness effect over state space, which determines an adaptive landscape. The peaks of the landscapes are those phenotypes that are candidate evolutionary stable strategies and can be determined by standard phenotypic selection gradient methods (e.g. evolutionary game theory, kin selection theory, adaptive dynamics). The curvature of the stationary distribution provides a measure of the stability by convergence of candidate evolutionary stable strategies, and it is evaluated explicitly for two biological scenarios: first, a coordination game, which illustrates that, for a multipeaked adaptive landscape, stochastically stable strategies can be singled out by letting the size of the gene pool grow large; second, a sex-allocation game for diploids and haplo-diploids, which suggests that the equilibrium sex ratio follows a Beta distribution with parameters depending on the features of the genetic system.

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BACKGROUND: In the past century, there has been a significant rise in life expectancy in almost all regions of the world, contributing to an increasingly older population. The aging of the population, in conjunction with urbanization and industrialization, has resulted in an important epidemiological transition marked by a widespread increase in the prevalence of chronic diseases and their sequelae. Current trends suggest that the transition will have a greater impact on developing countries compared to developed countries. An adequate response to the transition requires a strong emphasis on primary prevention and adequate resource allocation.

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Insect societies are paramount examples of cooperation, yet they also harbor internal conflicts whose resolution depends on the power of the opponents. The male-haploid, female-diploid sex-determining system of ants causes workers to be more related to sisters than to brothers, whereas queens are equally related to daughters and sons. Workers should thus allocate more resources to females than to males, while queens should favor an equal investment in each sex. Female-biased sex allocation and manipulation of the sex ratio during brood development suggest that workers prevail in many ant species. Here, we show that queens of Formica selysi strongly influenced colony sex allocation by biasing the sex ratio of their eggs. Most colonies specialized in the production of a single sex. Queens in female-specialist colonies laid a high proportion of diploid eggs, whereas queens in male-specialist colonies laid almost exclusively haploid eggs, which constrains worker manipulation. However, the change in sex ratio between the egg and pupae stages suggests that workers eliminated some male brood, and the population sex-investment ratio was between the queens' and workers' equilibria. Altogether, these data provide evidence for an ongoing conflict between queens and workers, with a prominent influence of queens as a result of their control of egg sex ratio.

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Cette contribution s'intéresse à la convergence qui devrait exister entre la demande populaire en matière de prestations publiques et les décisions budgétaires des autorités afin que le secteur public soit efficace du point de vue allocatif. Elle cherche à appliquer la méthode de l'allocation contingente dans une volonté d'impliquer la population dans la répartition des ressources budgétaires. Schématiquement, il s'agit d'interroger les administré-e-s dans le cadre d'une enquête et de leur demander d'allouer un budget donné entre les différentes catégories de prestations publiques que l'administration doit offrir. Cette méthode est appliquée ici de façon expérimentale en utilisant comme périmètre d'analyse les budgets des collectivités locales suisses. Les tests effectués sur les résultats montrent que les préférences révélées ne le sont pas sur une base aléatoire. Si des différences apparaissent entre les allocations contingentes et la manière dont les ressources sont effectivement réparties entre les prestations communales, ces différences semblent découler d'une divergence de vues réelle et non d'un biais lié à la méthode.

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Background and Aims Male-biased sex allocation commonly occurs in wind-pollinated hermaphroditic plants, and is often positively associated with size, notably in terms of height. Currently, it is not well established whether a corresponding pattern holds for dioecious plants: do males of wind-pollinated species exhibit greater reproductive allocation than females? Here, sexual dimorphism is investigated in terms of life history trade-offs in a dioecious population of the wind-pollinated ruderal herb Mercurialis annua.Methods The allocation strategies of males and females grown under different soil nutrient availability and competitive (i.e. no, male or female competitor) regimes were compared.Key Results Male reproductive allocation increased disproportionately with biomass, and was greater than that of females when grown in rich soils. Sexual morphs differentially adjusted their reproductive allocation in response to local environmental conditions. In particular, males reduced their reproductive allocation in poor soils, whereas females increased theirs, especially when competing with another female rather than growing alone. Finally, males displayed smaller above-ground vegetative sizes than females, but neither nutrient availability nor competition had a strong independent effect on relative size disparities between the sexes.Conclusions Selection appears to favour plasticity in reproductive allocation in dioecious M. annua, thereby maintaining a relatively constant size hierarchy between sexual morphs. In common with other dioecious species, there seems to be little divergence in the niches occupied by males and females of M. annua.

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Accurate prediction of mortality following burns is useful as an audit tool, and for providing treatment plan and resource allocation criteria. Common burn formulae (Ryan Score, Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), classic and revised Baux) have not been compared with the standard Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHEII) or re-validated in a severely (≥20% total burn surface area) burned population. Furthermore, the revised Baux (R-Baux) has been externally validated thoroughly only once and the pediatric Baux (P-Baux) has yet to be. Using 522 severely burned patients, we show that burn formulae (ABSI, Baux, revised Baux) outperform APACHEII among adults (AUROC increase p<0.001 adults; p>0.5 children). The Ryan Score performs well especially among the most at-risk populations (estimated mortality [90% CI] original versus current study: 33% [26-41%] versus 30.18% [24.25-36.86%] for Ryan Score 2; 87% [78-93%] versus 66.48% [51.31-78.87%] for Ryan Score 3). The R-Baux shows accurate discrimination (AUROC 0.908 [0.869-0.947]) and is well-calibrated. However, the ABSI and P-Baux, although showing high measures of discrimination (AUROC 0.826 [0.737-0.916] and 0.848 [0.758-0.938]) in children), exceedingly overestimates mortality, indicating poor calibration. We highlight challenges in designing and employing scores that are applicable to a wide range of populations.

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BACKGROUND: Healthy lifestyle including sufficient physical activity may mitigate or prevent adverse long-term effects of childhood cancer. We described daily physical activities and sports in childhood cancer survivors and controls, and assessed determinants of both activity patterns. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a questionnaire survey including all children diagnosed with cancer 1976-2003 at age 0-15 years, registered in the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry, who survived ≥5 years and reached adulthood (≥20 years). Controls came from the population-based Swiss Health Survey. We compared the two populations and determined risk factors for both outcomes in separate multivariable logistic regression models. The sample included 1058 survivors and 5593 controls (response rates 78% and 66%). Sufficient daily physical activities were reported by 52% (n = 521) of survivors and 37% (n = 2069) of controls (p<0.001). In contrast, 62% (n = 640) of survivors and 65% (n = 3635) of controls reported engaging in sports (p = 0.067). Risk factors for insufficient daily activities in both populations were: older age (OR for ≥35 years: 1.5, 95CI 1.2-2.0), female gender (OR 1.6, 95CI 1.3-1.9), French/Italian Speaking (OR 1.4, 95CI 1.1-1.7), and higher education (OR for university education: 2.0, 95CI 1.5-2.6). Risk factors for no sports were: being a survivor (OR 1.3, 95CI 1.1-1.6), older age (OR for ≥35 years: 1.4, 95CI 1.1-1.8), migration background (OR 1.5, 95CI 1.3-1.8), French/Italian speaking (OR 1.4, 95CI 1.2-1.7), lower education (OR for compulsory schooling only: 1.6, 95CI 1.2-2.2), being married (OR 1.7, 95CI 1.5-2.0), having children (OR 1.3, 95CI 1.4-1.9), obesity (OR 2.4, 95CI 1.7-3.3), and smoking (OR 1.7, 95CI 1.5-2.1). Type of diagnosis was only associated with sports. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Physical activity levels in survivors were lower than recommended, but comparable to controls and mainly determined by socio-demographic and cultural factors. Strategies to improve physical activity levels could be similar as for the general population.