Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data

Maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) is a widely used algorithm for predicting species distributions across space and time. Properly assessing the uncertainty in such predictions is non-trivial and requires validation with independent datasets. Notably, model complexity (number of model parameters) remains a major concern in relation to overfitting and, hence, transferability of Maxent models. An emerging approach is to validate the cross-temporal transferability of model predictions using paleoecological data. In this study, we assess the effect of model complexity on the performance of Maxent projections across time using two European plant species (Alnus giutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Corylus avellana L) with an extensive late Quaternary fossil record in Spain as a study case. We fit 110 models with different levels of complexity under present time and tested model performance using AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and AlCc (corrected Akaike Information Criterion) through the standard procedure of randomly partitioning current occurrence data. We then compared these results to an independent validation by projecting the models to mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climatic conditions in Spain to assess their ability to predict fossil pollen presence-absence and abundance. We find that calibrating Maxent models with default settings result in the generation of overly complex models. While model performance increased with model complexity when predicting current distributions, it was higher with intermediate complexity when predicting mid-Holocene distributions. Hence, models of intermediate complexity resulted in the best trade-off to predict species distributions across time. Reliable temporal model transferability is especially relevant for forecasting species distributions under future climate change. Consequently, species-specific model tuning should be used to find the best modeling settings to control for complexity, notably with paleoecological data to independently validate model projections. For cross-temporal projections of species distributions for which paleoecological data is not available, models of intermediate complexity should be selected.

Proximity-dependent pollen performance in Silene vulgaris.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Pollen and seed dispersal in herbaceous insect-pollinated plants are often restricted, inducing strong population structure. To what extent this influences mating within and among patches is poorly understood. This study investigates the influence of population structure on pollen performance using controlled pollinations and genetic markers. METHODS: Population structure was investigated in a patchily distributed population of gynodioecious Silene vulgaris in Switzerland using polymorphic microsatellite markers. Experimental pollinations were performed on 21 hermaphrodite recipients using pollen donors at three spatial scales: (a) self-pollination; (b) within-patch cross-pollinations; and (c) between-patch cross-pollinations. Pollen performance was then compared with respect to crossing distance. KEY RESULTS: The population of S. vulgaris was characterized by a high degree of genetic sub-structure, with neighbouring plants more related to one another than to distant individuals. Inbreeding probably results from both selfing and biparental inbreeding. Pollen performance increased with distance between mates. Between-patch pollen performed significantly better than both self- and within-patch pollen donors. However, no significant difference was detected between self- and within-patch pollen donors. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that population structure in animal-pollinated plants is likely to influence mating patterns by favouring cross-pollinations between unrelated plants. However, the extent to which this mechanism could be effective as a pre-zygotic barrier preventing inbred mating depends on the patterns of pollinator foraging and their influence on pollen dispersal.

Density-dependent pollen limitation and reproductive assurance in a wind-pollinated herb with contrasting sexual systems

1. Wind pollination is thought to have evolved in response to selection for mechanisms to promote pollination success, when animal pollinators become scarce or unreliable. We might thus expect wind-pollinated plants to be less prone to pollen limitation than their insect-pollinated counterparts. Yet, if pollen loads on stigmas of wind-pollinated species decline with distance from pollen donors, seed set might nevertheless be pollen-limited in populations of plants that cannot self-fertilize their progeny, but not in self-compatible hermaphroditic populations.2. Here, we test this hypothesis by comparing pollen limitation between dioecious and hermaphroditic (monoecious) populations of the wind-pollinated herb Mercurialis annua.3. In natural populations, seed set was pollen-limited in low-density patches of dioecious, but not hermaphroditic, M. annua, a finding consistent with patterns of distance-dependent seed set by females in an experimental array. Nevertheless, seed set was incomplete in both dioecious and hermaphroditic populations, even at high local densities. Further, both factors limited the seed set of females and hermaphrodites, after we manipulated pollen and resource availability in a common garden experiment.4. Synthesis. Our results are consistent with the idea that pollen limitation plays a role in the evolution of combined vs. separate sexes in M. annua. Taken together, they point to the potential importance of pollen transfer between flowers on the same plant (geitonogamy) by wind as a mechanism of reproductive assurance and to the dual roles played by pollen and resource availability in limiting seed set. Thus, seed set can be pollen-limited in sparse populations of a wind-pollinated species, where mates are rare or absent, having potentially important demographic and evolutionary implications.

Novel birch pollen specific immunotherapy formulation based on contiguous overlapping peptides.

BACKGROUND: Synthetic contiguous overlapping peptides (COPs) may represent an alternative to allergen extracts or recombinant allergens for allergen specific immunotherapy. In combination, COPs encompass the entire allergen sequence, providing all potential T cell epitopes, while preventing IgE conformational epitopes of the native allergen. METHODS: Individual COPs were derived from the sequence of Bet v 1, the major allergen of birch pollen, and its known crystal structure, and designed to avoid IgE binding. Three sets of COPs were tested in vitro in competition ELISA and basophil degranulation assays. Their in vivo reactivity was determined by intraperitoneal challenge in rBet v 1 sensitized mice as well as by skin prick tests in volunteers with allergic rhinoconjunctivitis to birch pollen. RESULTS: The combination, named AllerT, of three COPs selected for undetectable IgE binding in competition assays and for the absence of basophil activation in vitro was unable to induce anaphylaxis in sensitized mice in contrast to rBet v 1. In addition no positive reactivity to AllerT was observed in skin prick tests in human volunteers allergic to birch pollen. In contrast, a second set of COPs, AllerT4-T5 displayed some residual IgE binding in competition ELISA and a weak subliminal reactivity to skin prick testing. CONCLUSIONS: The hypoallergenicity of contiguous overlapping peptides was confirmed by low, if any, IgE binding activity in vitro, by the absence of basophil activation and the absence of in vivo induction of allergic reactions in mouse and human. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01719133.

Palaeoenvironment and palaeoclimate of the Middle Miocene lake in the Steinheim basin, SW Germany: A reconstruction from C, O, and Sr isotopes of fossil remains

A differentiated reconstruction of palaeolimnologic, -environmental, and -climatic conditions is presented for the Middle Miocene long-term freshwater lake (14.3 to 13.5 Ma) of the Steinheim basin, on the basis of a combined C, 0, and Sr isotope study of sympatric skeletal fossils of aquatic and terrestrial organisms from the lake sediments. The oxygen isotope composition for lake water of the Steinheim basin (delta O-18(H2O) = +2.0 +/- 0.4 parts per thousand VSMOW, n = 6) was reconstructed from measurements of delta O-18(PO4) of aquatic turtle bones. The drinking water calculated from the enamel of large mammals (proboscideans, rhinocerotids, equids, cervids, suids) has delta O-18(H2O) values (delta(OH2O)-O-18 = -5.9 +/- 1.7 parts per thousand VSMOW, n = 31) typical for Middle Miocene meteoric water of the area. This delta O-18(H2O) value corresponds to a mean annual air temperature (MAT) of 18.8 +/- 3.8 degrees C, calculated using a modem-day delta(OH2O)-O-18-MAT relation. Hence, large mammals did not use the lake water as principal drinking water. In contrast, small mammals, especially the then abundant pika Prolagus oeningensis drank from O-18-enriched water sources (delta O-18(H2O) = +2.7 +/- 2.3 parts per thousand VSMOW, n = 7), such as the lake water. Differences in Sr and 0 isotopic compositions between large and small mammal teeth indicate different home ranges and drinking behaviour and support migration of some large mammals between the Swabian Alb plateau and the nearby Molasse basin, while small mammals ingested their food and water locally. Changes in the lake level, water chemistry, and temperature were inferred using isotopic compositions of ostracod and gastropod shells from a composite lake sediment profile. Calcitic ostracod valves (Ilyocypris binocularis; delta O-18 = +1.7 +/- 1.2 parts per thousand VPDB, delta C-18 = -0.5 +/- 0.9 parts per thousand, VPDB, n = 68) and aragonitic, gastropod shells (Gyraulus spp.; delta O-18 = +2.0 +/- 13 parts per thousand VPDB, delta C-13 = -1.1 +/- 1.3 parts per thousand VPDB, n = 89) have delta O-18 and delta C-13 values similar to or even higher than those of marine, carbonates. delta C-13 values:of the biogenic carbonates parallel lake level fluctuations while delta O-18 values scatter around +2 +/- 2 parts per thousand and reflect the short term variability of meteoric water inflow vs. longer term evaporation. Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios of aragonitic Gyraulus spp. gastropod shells parallel the lake level fluctuations, reflecting variable inputs of groundwater and surface waters. Using a water delta O-18(H2O) value of +2.0 parts per thousand VSMOW, water temperatures calculated from skeletal tissue delta O-18 values of ostracods are 16.7 +/- 5.0 degrees C, gastropods 20.6 +/- 5.6 degrees C, otoliths 21.8 +/- 1.4 degrees C, and fish teeth 17.0 +/- 2.7 degrees C. The calculated MAT (similar to 19 degrees C), lake water temperatures (similar to 17 to 22 degrees C) and the O-18-enriched water compositions are indicative of warm-temperate climatic conditions, possibly with a high humidity during this period. Vegetation in the area surrounding the basin was largely of the C-3-type, as indicated by carbon isotopic compositions of tooth enamel from large mammals (delta C-13 = -11.1 +/- 1.1 parts per thousand VPDB, n = 40). (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Toward Protein Biomarkers for Allergy: CD4+ T Cell Proteomics in Allergic and Nonallergic Subjects Sampled in and out of Pollen Season.

Allergy is an immunological disorder of the upper airways, lung, skin, and the gut with a growing prevalence over the last decades in Western countries. Atopy, the genetic predisposition for allergy, is strongly dependent on familial inheritance and environmental factors. These observations call for predictive markers of progression from atopy to allergy, a prerequisite to any active intervention in neonates and children (prophylactic interventions/primary prevention) or in adults (immunomodulatory interventions/secondary prevention). In an attempt to identify early biomarkers of the "atopic march" using minimally invasive sampling, CD4+ T cells from 20 adult volunteers (10 healthy and 10 with respiratory allergies) were isolated and quantitatively analyzed and their proteomes were compared in and out of pollen season (± antigen exposure). The proteome study based on high-resolution 2D gel electrophoresis revealed three candidate protein markers that distinguish the CD4+ T cell proteomes of normal from allergic individuals when sampled out of pollen season, namely Talin 1, Nipsnap homologue 3A, and Glutamate-cysteine ligase regulatory protein. Three proteins were found differentially expressed between the CD4+ T cell proteomes of normal and allergic subjects when sampled during pollen season: carbonyl reductase, glutathione S-transferase ω 1, and 2,4-dienoyl-CoA reductase. The results were partly validated by Western blotting.

Effect of Lactobacillus paracasei ST11 on a nasal provocation test with grass pollen in allergic rhinitis.

Cite this as: J. Wassenberg, S. Nutten, R. Audran, N. Barbier, V. Aubert, J. Moulin, A. Mercenier and F. Spertini, Clinical & Experimental Allergy, 2011 (41) 565-573. SUMMARY: Background Probiotics have been associated with prevention and improvement of symptoms in atopic diseases such as atopic dermatitis. However, few studies exist that document their efficacy for upper airways allergies such as allergic rhinitis. Objective To investigate the effect of short-term oral administration of Lactobacillus paracasei ST11 on a nasal provocation test (NPT) with grass pollen. Methods Thirty-one adult volunteers with allergic rhinitis were enrolled in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, based on two 4-week cross-over periods of product consumption (ST11-fermented milk vs. placebo), separated by a wash-out period of 6-8 weeks. Objective and subjective clinical parameters of NPT as well as systemic and nasal immunological parameters were compared between the two treatment periods (registration number: NCT 011 50 253). Results Subjects that received ST11-fermented milk had lower nasal congestion than subjects under placebo (visual analogical scale; P<0.05). Nasal pruritus followed the same trend. However, no significant change in combined nasal reaction threshold was observed between the two periods. IL-5 secretion by peripheral blood mononuclear cells and serum allergen-specific IgG4 were significantly lower in ST11-fermented milk group compared to placebo group. IL-8 and IL-10 secretion followed the same trend. Conclusion and Clinical Relevance Short-term treatment with ST11-fermented milk before NPT significantly improved a clinical marker of NPT (subjective nasal congestion) and down-regulated systemic immune markers (IL-5 from peripheral blood mononuclear cells and serum IgG4). These data strongly suggest that probiotics may down modulate key parameters of allergic rhinitis and warrant future evaluation in seasonal trials.

Characterization of modern and fossil mineral dust transported to high altitude in the Western Alps: Saharan sources and transport patterns

Mineral dust aerosols recently collected at the high-altitude Jungfraujoch research station (46 degrees 33'51 `' N, 7 degrees 59'06 `' E; 3580 m a.s.l.) were compared to mineral dust deposited at the Colle Gnifetti glacier (45 degrees 52'50 `' N, 7 degrees 52'33 `' E; 4455 m a.s.l.) over the last millennium. Radiogenic isotope signatures and backward trajectories analyses indicate that major dust sources are situated in the north-central to north-western part of the Saharan desert. Less radiogenic Sr isotopic compositions of PM10 aerosols and of mineral particles deposited during periods of low dust transfer likely result from the enhancement of the background chemically-weathered Saharan source. Saharan dust mobilization and transport were relatively reduced during the second part of the Little Ice Age (ca. 1690-1870) except within the greatest Saharan dust event deposited around 1770. After ca. 1870, sustained dust deposition suggests that increased mineral dust transport over the Alps during the last century could be due to stronger spring/summer North Atlantic southwesterlies and drier winters in North Africa. On the other hand, increasing carbonaceous particle emissions from fossil fuel combustion combined to a higher lead enrichment factor point to concomitant anthropogenic sources of particulate pollutants reaching high-altitude European glaciers during the last century.

PyRate: a new program to estimate speciation and extinction rates from incomplete fossil data

Despite the advancement of phylogenetic methods to estimate speciation and extinction rates, their power can be limited under variable rates, in particular for clades with high extinction rates and small number of extant species. Fossil data can provide a powerful alternative source of information to investigate diversification processes. Here, we present PyRate, a computer program to estimate speciation and extinction rates and their temporal dynamics from fossil occurrence data. The rates are inferred in a Bayesian framework and are comparable to those estimated from phylogenetic trees. We describe how PyRate can be used to explore different models of diversification. In addition to the diversification rates, it provides estimates of the parameters of the preservation process (fossilization and sampling) and the times of speciation and extinction of each species in the data set. Moreover, we develop a new birth-death model to correlate the variation of speciation/extinction rates with changes of a continuous trait. Finally, we demonstrate the use of Bayes factors for model selection and show how the posterior estimates of a PyRate analysis can be used to generate calibration densities for Bayesian molecular clock analysis. PyRate is an open-source command-line Python program available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/pyrate/.

A deep dig-hindsight on Holocene plant composition from ancient environmental DNA

Want a glimpse at past vegetation? Studying pollen and other plant remains, which are preserved for example in lake sediments or mires for thousands of years, allows us to document regional occurrences of plant species over radiocarbon-dated time series. Such vegetation reconstructions derived from optical analyses of fossil samples are inherently incomplete because they only comprise taxa that contribute sufficient amounts of pollen, spores, macrofossil or other evidences. To complement optical analyses for paleoecological inference, molecular markers applied to ancient DNA (aDNA) may help in disclosing information hitherto inaccessible to biologists. Parducci etal. (2013) targeted aDNA from sediment cores of two lakes in the Scandes Mountains with generic primers in a meta-barcoding approach. When compared to palynological records from the same cores, respective taxon lists show remarkable differences in their compositions, but also in quantitative representation and in taxonomic resolution similar to a previous study (JOrgensen etal. 2012). While not free of assumptions that need critical and robust testing, notably the question of possible contamination, this study provides thrilling prospects to improve our knowledge about past vegetation composition, but also other organismic groups, stored as a biological treasure in the ground.

Stable isotope compositions of mammoth teeth from Niederweningen, Switzerland: Implications for the Late Pleistocene climate, environment, and diet

Oxygen and carbon isotope compositions of well-preserved mammoth teeth from the Middle Wurmian (40-70 ka) peat layer of Niederweningen, the most important mammoth site in Switzerland, were analysed to reconstruct Late Pleistocene palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental conditions. Drinking water (delta(18)O values of approximately -12.3 +/- 0.9 parts per thousand were calculated front oxygen isotope compositions of mammoth tooth enamel apatite using a species-specific calibration for modern elephants. These delta(18)O(H2O) values reflect the mean oxygen isotope composition of the palaeo-precipitation and are similar to those directly measured for fate Pleistocene groundwater from aquifers in northern Switzerland and southern Germany. Using a present-day delta(18)O(H2)o-precipitation-air temperature relation for Switzerland, a mean annual air temperature (MAT) of around 4.3 +/- 2.1 degrees C can be calculated for the Middle Wurmian at this site. This MAT is in good agreement with palaeotemperature estimates on the basis of Middle Wurmian groundwater recharge temperatures and beetle assemblages. Hence, the climatic conditions in this region were around 4 degrees C cooler during the Middle Wurmian interstadial phase, around 45-50ka BP, than they are today. During this period the mammoths from Niederweningen lived in an open tundra-like, C(3) plant-dominated environment as indicated by enamel (delta(13)C values of -11.5 +/- 0.3 parts per thousand and pollen and macroplant fossils found in the embedding peat. The low variability of enamel delta(13)C and delta(18)O values from different mammoth teeth reflects similar environmental conditions and supports a relatively small time frame for the fossil assemblage. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.