Contracts, Reference Points, and Competition - Behavioral Effects of the Fundamental Transformation

In this paper we study the role of incomplete ex ante contracts for ex post trade. Previous experimental evidence indicates that a contract provides a reference point for entitlements when the terms are negotiated in a competitive market. We show that this finding no longer holds when the terms are determined in a non-competitive way. Our results imply that the presence of a "fundamental transformation" (i.e., the transition from a competitive market to a bilateral relationship) is important for a contract to become a reference point. To the best of our knowledge this behavioral aspect of the fundamental transformation has not been shown before.

Superior outcome of women with stage I/II cutaneous melanoma: pooled analysis of four European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer phase III trials.

PURPOSE: Several studies observed a female advantage in the prognosis of cutaneous melanoma, for which behavioral factors or an underlying biologic mechanism might be responsible. Using complete and reliable follow-up data from four phase III trials of the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Melanoma Group, we explored the female advantage across multiple end points and in relation to other important prognostic indicators. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients diagnosed with localized melanoma were included in EORTC adjuvant treatment trials 18832, 18871, 18952, and 18961 and randomly assigned during the period of 1984 to 2005. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for women compared with men, adjusted for age, Breslow thickness, body site, ulceration, performed lymph node dissection, and treatment. RESULTS: A total of 2,672 patients with stage I/II melanoma were included. Women had a highly consistent and independent advantage in overall survival (adjusted HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.83), disease-specific survival (adjusted HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.88), time to lymph node metastasis (adjusted HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.96), and time to distant metastasis (adjusted HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.81). Subgroup analysis showed that the female advantage was consistent across all prognostic subgroups (with the possible exception of head and neck melanomas) and in pre- and postmenopausal age groups. CONCLUSION: Women have a consistent and independent relative advantage in all aspects of the progression of localized melanoma of approximately 30%, most likely caused by an underlying biologic sex difference.

Evolutionary and convergence stability for continuous phenotypes in finite populations derived from two-allele models.

The evolution of a quantitative phenotype is often envisioned as a trait substitution sequence where mutant alleles repeatedly replace resident ones. In infinite populations, the invasion fitness of a mutant in this two-allele representation of the evolutionary process is used to characterize features about long-term phenotypic evolution, such as singular points, convergence stability (established from first-order effects of selection), branching points, and evolutionary stability (established from second-order effects of selection). Here, we try to characterize long-term phenotypic evolution in finite populations from this two-allele representation of the evolutionary process. We construct a stochastic model describing evolutionary dynamics at non-rare mutant allele frequency. We then derive stability conditions based on stationary average mutant frequencies in the presence of vanishing mutation rates. We find that the second-order stability condition obtained from second-order effects of selection is identical to convergence stability. Thus, in two-allele systems in finite populations, convergence stability is enough to characterize long-term evolution under the trait substitution sequence assumption. We perform individual-based simulations to confirm our analytic results.

Postoperative cognitive dysfunction POCD, serum anticholinergic activity and intraoperative cerebral perfusion in geriatric patients

Background: Inadequate intraoperative cerebral perfusion and increased serum anticholinergic activity (SAA) have been suggested as possible causes of postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD). Methods: 53 patients aged >65 yrs undergoing elective major surgical procedures under standardized general anaesthesia. Cerebral perfusion was monitored with transcranial Doppler and near-infrared spectroscopy. Mx, an index of cerebral autoregulation was calculated based on the correlation of spontaneous changes inmean arterial blood pressure (MAP) and cerebral blood flow velocity. Cognitive function was measured preoperatively and 7 days postoperatively using the CERAD-Neuropsychological Battery. A postoperative decline >1 z-score in at least 2 cognitive variables was defined as POCD. SAA was measured preoperatively and 7 days postoperatively (data available for 38 patients). CRP was measured at the same time points and 2 days postoperatively. Results: Age was 75_7 yrs (mean_SD). 23 patients (43%) developed POCD. There were no statistical significant differences between patients with POCD and without POCD in age (77_7 vs 73_6 yrs), MAP (74_12 vs 78_11 mmHg), cerebral tissue oxygenation indices (67_6 vs 69_4 %) SAA preoperatively (1.74_1.52 vs 1.74_1.21) and 7 days postoperatively (1.90_1.63 vs 1.84_1.39) and CRP preoperatively (32_72 vs 7_9), 2 days postoperatively (176_129 vs 111_69) and 7days postoperatively (53_43 vs 48_25). Patients with POCD had less efficient autoregulation than patients without POCD (Mx 0.55_0.15 vs 0.45_0.20, p = 0.046). However, the percentage of patients with clearly impaired autoregulation (ie, Mx>0.5) was statistically not different between groups (with POCD: 65%; without POCD: 38%; p = 0.06) but there seems to be a trend. Conclusions: Our data on the association between cerebral perfusion and POCD in elderly patients are inconclusive and more patients need to be investigated. In this small group of patients SAA seems not to be associated with POCD.

The Effect Of Induced Intraocular Straylight (cataract Simulation) On Sensitivity Measures Of Standard Automated Perimetry, Pulsar Perimetry And Moorfields Motion Displacement Test

Purpose: To investigate the effect of incremental increases in intraocular straylight on threshold measurements made by three modern forms of perimetry: Standard Automated Perimetry (SAP) using Octopus (Dynamic, G-Pattern), Pulsar Perimetry (PP) (TOP, 66 points) and the Moorfields Motion Displacement Test (MDT) (WEBS, 32 points).Methods: Four healthy young observers were recruited (mean age 26yrs [25yrs, 28yrs]), refractive correction [+2 D, -4.25D]). Five white opacity filters (WOF), each scattering light by different amounts were used to create incremental increases in intraocular straylight (IS). Resultant IS values were measured with each WOF and at baseline (no WOF) for each subject using a C-Quant Straylight Meter (Oculus, Wetzlar, Germany). A 25 yr old has an IS value of ~0.85 log(s). An increase of 40% in IS to 1.2log(s) corresponds to the physiological value of a 70yr old. Each WOFs created an increase in IS between 10-150% from baseline, ranging from effects similar to normal aging to those found with considerable cataract. Each subject underwent 6 test sessions over a 2-week period; each session consisted of the 3 perimetric tests using one of the five WOFs and baseline (both instrument and filter were randomised).Results: The reduction in sensitivity from baseline was calculated. A two-way ANOVA on mean change in threshold (where subjects were treated as rows in the block and each increment in fog filters was treated as column) was used to examine the effect of incremental increases in straylight. Both SAP (p<0.001) and Pulsar (p<0.001) were significantly affected by increases in straylight. The MDT (p=0.35) remained comparatively robust to increases in straylight.Conclusions: The Moorfields MDT measurement of threshold is robust to effects of additional straylight as compared to SAP and PP.

Forensic intelligence framework. Part II: study of the main generic building blocks and challenges through the examples of illicit drugs and false identity documents monitoring

The development of forensic intelligence relies on the expression of suitable models that better represent the contribution of forensic intelligence in relation to the criminal justice system, policing and security. Such models assist in comparing and evaluating methods and new technologies, provide transparency and foster the development of new applications. Interestingly, strong similarities between two separate projects focusing on specific forensic science areas were recently observed. These observations have led to the induction of a general model (Part I) that could guide the use of any forensic science case data in an intelligence perspective. The present article builds upon this general approach by focusing on decisional and organisational issues. The article investigates the comparison process and evaluation system that lay at the heart of the forensic intelligence framework, advocating scientific decision criteria and a structured but flexible and dynamic architecture. These building blocks are crucial and clearly lay within the expertise of forensic scientists. However, it is only part of the problem. Forensic intelligence includes other blocks with their respective interactions, decision points and tensions (e.g. regarding how to guide detection and how to integrate forensic information with other information). Formalising these blocks identifies many questions and potential answers. Addressing these questions is essential for the progress of the discipline. Such a process requires clarifying the role and place of the forensic scientist within the whole process and their relationship to other stakeholders.

Quantification of 4 antidepressants and a metabolite by LC-MS for therapeutic drug monitoring.

A liquid chromatography method coupled to mass spectrometry was developed for the quantification of bupropion, its metabolite hydroxy-bupropion, moclobemide, reboxetine and trazodone in human plasma. The validation of the analytical procedure was assessed according to Société Française des Sciences et Techniques Pharmaceutiques and the latest Food and Drug Administration guidelines. The sample preparation was performed with 0.5mL of plasma extracted on a cation-exchange solid phase 96-well plate. The separation was achieved in 14min on a C18 XBridge column (2.1mm×100mm, 3.5μm) using a 50mM ammonium acetate pH 9/acetonitrile mobile phase in gradient mode. The compounds of interest were analysed in the single ion monitoring mode on a single quadrupole mass spectrometer working in positive electrospray ionisation mode. Two ions were selected per molecule to increase the number of identification points and to avoid as much as possible any false positives. Since selectivity is always a critical point for routine therapeutic drug monitoring, more than sixty common comedications for the psychiatric population were tested. For each analyte, the analytical procedure was validated to cover the common range of concentrations measured in plasma samples: 1-400ng/mL for reboxetine and bupropion, 2-2000ng/mL for hydroxy-bupropion, moclobemide, and trazodone. For all investigated compounds, reliable performance in terms of accuracy, precision, trueness, recovery, selectivity and stability was obtained. One year after its implementation in a routine process, this method demonstrated a high robustness with accurate values over the wide concentration range commonly observed among a psychiatric population.

Influence of preoperative leg pain and radiculopathy on outcomes in mono-segmental lumbar total disc replacement: results from a nationwide registry.

PURPOSE: Currently, many pre-conditions are regarded as relative or absolute contraindications for lumbar total disc replacement (TDR). Radiculopathy is one among them. In Switzerland it is left to the surgeon's discretion when to operate if he adheres to a list of pre-defined indications. Contraindications, however, are less clearly specified. We hypothesized that, the extent of pre-operative radiculopathy results in different benefits for patients treated with mono-segmental lumbar TDR. We used patient perceived leg pain and its correlation with physician recorded radiculopathy for creating the patient groups to be compared. METHODS: The present study is based on the dataset of SWISSspine, a government mandated health technology assessment registry. Between March 2005 and April 2009, 577 patients underwent either mono- or bi-segmental lumbar TDR, which was documented in a prospective observational multicenter mode. A total of 416 cases with a mono-segmental procedure were included in the study. The data collection consisted of pre-operative and follow-up data (physician based) and clinical outcomes (NASS form, EQ-5D). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted with patients' self-indicated leg pain and the surgeon-based diagnosis "radiculopathy", as marked on the case report forms. As a result, patients were divided into two groups according to the severity of leg pain. The two groups were compared with regard to the pre-operative patient characteristics and pre- and post-operative pain on Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) and quality of life using general linear modeling. RESULTS: The optimal ROC model revealed a leg pain threshold of 40 ≤ VAS > 40 for the absence or the presence of "radiculopathy". Demographics in the resulting two groups were well comparable. Applying this threshold, the mean pre-operative leg pain level was 16.5 points in group 1 and 68.1 points in group 2 (p < 0.001). Back pain levels differed less with 63.6 points in group 1 and 72.6 in group 2 (p < 0.001). Pre-operative quality of life showed considerable differences with an 0.44 EQ-5D score in group 1 and 0.29 in group 2 (p < 0.001, possible score range -0.6 to 1). At a mean follow-up time of 8 months, group 1 showed a mean leg pain improvement of 3.6 points and group 2 of 41.1 points (p < 0.001). Back pain relief was 35.6 and 39.1 points, respectively (p = 0.27). EQ-5D score improvement was 0.27 in group 1 and 0.41 in group 2 (p = 0.11). CONCLUSIONS: Patients labeled as having radiculopathy (group 2) do mostly have pre-operative leg pain levels ≥ 40. Applying this threshold, the patients with pre-operative leg pain do also have more severe back pain and a considerably lower quality of life. Their net benefit from the lumbar TDR is higher and they do have similar post-operative back and leg pain levels as well as the quality of life as patients without pre-operative leg pain. Although randomized controlled trials are required to confirm these findings, they put leg pain and radiculopathy into perspective as absolute contraindications for TDR.

Development and validation of a clinical decision rule for the diagnosis of influenza.

INTRODUCTION: A clinical decision rule to improve the accuracy of a diagnosis of influenza could help clinicians avoid unnecessary use of diagnostic tests and treatments. Our objective was to develop and validate a simple clinical decision rule for diagnosis of influenza. METHODS: We combined data from 2 studies of influenza diagnosis in adult outpatients with suspected influenza: one set in California and one in Switzerland. Patients in both studies underwent a structured history and physical examination and had a reference standard test for influenza (polymerase chain reaction or culture). We randomly divided the dataset into derivation and validation groups and then evaluated simple heuristics and decision rules from previous studies and 3 rules based on our own multivariate analysis. Cutpoints for stratification of risk groups in each model were determined using the derivation group before evaluating them in the validation group. For each decision rule, the positive predictive value and likelihood ratio for influenza in low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, and the percentage of patients allocated to each risk group, were reported. RESULTS: The simple heuristics (fever and cough; fever, cough, and acute onset) were helpful when positive but not when negative. The most useful and accurate clinical rule assigned 2 points for fever plus cough, 2 points for myalgias, and 1 point each for duration <48 hours and chills or sweats. The risk of influenza was 8% for 0 to 2 points, 30% for 3 points, and 59% for 4 to 6 points; the rule performed similarly in derivation and validation groups. Approximately two-thirds of patients fell into the low- or high-risk group and would not require further diagnostic testing. CONCLUSION: A simple, valid clinical rule can be used to guide point-of-care testing and empiric therapy for patients with suspected influenza.

Liver, gastrointestinal and cardiac toxicity in intermediate hepatocellular carcinoma treated with PRECISION TACE with drug-eluting beads: Results from the PRECISION V randomized trial : B-240

Purpose: To evaluate the toxicity focussing on hepatic, gastrointestinal and cardiac parameters following PRECISION TACE with DC Bead? versus conventional transarterial chemoembolization (cTACE) in the treatment of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods and Materials: This prospective, randomized, multicentre study was conducted under best practice trial management and authorized by local institutional review boards. Informed consent was obtained. 212 patients (185 men/27 women; mean: 67 years) were randomized to be treated with DC Beads? or cTACE. The majority of both groups presented in a more advanced stage. Safety was measured by rate of adverse events (South West Oncology Group criteria) and changes in laboratory parameters. Cardiotoxicity was assessed by means of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in MRI or echocardiography. The results of the two groups were compared using the chi-square test and Student`s t-test. Results: Mean maximum alanine transaminase increase in the DC Bead group was 50% in the cTACE group (p < 0.001) and 59% for aspartate transaminase (p < 0.001). For bilirubin, mean increase was 5.30±15.13 vs. 13.53±73.89 µmol/L. Concerning gastrointestinal disorders, 120 adverse events (AEs) occurred in 57/93 (61.3%) patients in the DC Bead group vs. 114 in 49/108 (45.4%) in cTACE. Concerning hepatobiliary disorders, serious AEs occurred in 8/93 (8.6%) vs. 11/108 (10.2%) patients. LVEF showed an increase in the DC Bead group by +2.7±10.1 percentage points and a small decrease by -1.5±7.6 in the cTACE group, p=0.018. Conclusion: PRECISION TACE is safe, even in more advanced HCC patients. Serious liver and cardiac toxicity were significantly lower in the DC Bead group.

Statistically significant changes of antimüllerian hormone and inhibin levels during the physiologic menstrual cycle in reproductive age women.

OBJECTIVE: To define the dynamics of antimüllerian hormone (AMH) and inhibins during the physiologic menstrual cycle. DESIGN: Longitudinal study. SETTING: University hospital. PATIENT(S): 36 young, healthy, normal weight Caucasian women without medication. INTERVENTION(S): Normal ovulatory menstrual cycles were evaluated by regular blood sampling taken every other day and periovulatory every day. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Serum concentrations of AMH, inhibin A and B, follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), prolactin, estradiol, progesterone, and free testosterone were measured in all blood samples. RESULT(S): Median AMH levels are statistically significantly higher in the late follicular compared with ovulation or the early luteal phase. There are statistically significant correlations between both AMH and FSH, and AMH and free testosterone in all cycle phases. Inhibin A increases strongly in the late follicular phase and peaks at day LH + 4. Inhibin B shows a broad midfollicular and a sharp early luteal peak, the difference being statistically significant between day LH + 4 and the earlier time points and between day LH + 2 and day LH. Although there is a negative association between inhibin A or B and the body mass index (BMI), there is no correlation between AMH and the BMI. CONCLUSION(S): Levels of AMH show a statistically significant change during the menstrual cycle and may influence the circulating gonadotropin and steroid hormone levels.

Early intervention for conversion disorder: neurologists and psychiatrists working together

It has been shown that for the reaction catalyzed by "biodegradative" L-threonine dehydratase from E. coli strains K-12 and 980 in 0.5 M phosphate-carbonate buffer, pH 8.4 and pH 9.5, the plots of initial reaction rate (v) versus the initial substrate concentration ([S]0 are characterized by several inflection points, i. e. an intermediate plateau. The plot of v versus the allosteric activator (AMP) concentration have very complicated shapes: there are several inflection points, and also the maximum at L-threonine concentration equal to 3-10(2) and 5-10(-2) M. High AMP concentrations inhibit the enzyme at high substrate concentrations. The reduced glutathion dose not influence the enzyme and does not alter the activating effect of AMP. On the basis of the data obtained it is proposed that the substrate and AMP shift the equilibrium between multiple oligomeric enzyme forms differing in catalytic activity and kinetic manifestations of allosteric interactions between the active and allosteric AMP-binding sites towards polymerization. Thus, the functioning the enzyme under study is discussed in the frames of the model of dissociating regulatory enzymes with multiple intermediate oligomeric forms.