Influence of structural heterogeneities and of large scale topography on imbricate gravitational rock slope failures: New insights from 3-D physical modeling and geomorphological analysis

Initial topography and inherited structural discontinuities are known to play a dominant role in rock slope stability. Previous 2-D physical modeling results demonstrated that even if few preexisting fractures are activated/propagated during gravitational failure all of those heterogeneities had a great influence on mobilized volume and its kinematics. The question we address in the present study is to determine if such a result is also observed in 3-D. As in 2-D previous models we examine geologically stable model configuration, based upon the well documented landslide at Randa, Switzerland. The 3-D models consisted of a homogeneous material in which several fracture zones were introduced in order to study simplified but realistic configurations of discontinuities (e.g. based on natural example rather than a parametric study). Results showed that the type of gravitational failure (deep-seated landslide or sequential failure) and resulting slope morphology evolution are the result of the interplay of initial topography and inherited preexisting fractures (orientation and density). The three main results are i) the initial topography exerts a strong control on gravitational slope failure. Indeed in each tested configuration (even in the isotropic one without fractures) the model is affected by a rock slide, ii) the number of simulated fracture sets greatly influences the volume mobilized and its kinematics, and iii) the failure zone involved in the 1991 event is smaller than the results produced by the analog modeling. This failure may indicate that the zone mobilized in 1991 is potentially only a part of a larger deep-seated landslide and/or wider deep seated gravitational slope deformation.

Association of car ownership and physical activity across the spectrum of human development : Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS).

BACKGROUND: Variations in physical activity (PA) across nations may be driven by socioeconomic position. As national incomes increase, car ownership becomes within reach of more individuals. This report characterizes associations between car ownership and PA in African-origin populations across 5 sites at different levels of economic development and with different transportation infrastructures: US, Seychelles, Jamaica, South Africa, and Ghana. METHODS: Twenty-five hundred adults, ages 25-45, were enrolled in the study. A total of 2,101 subjects had valid accelerometer-based PA measures (reported as average daily duration of moderate to vigorous PA, MVPA) and complete socioeconomic information. Our primary exposure of interest was whether the household owned a car. We adjusted for socioeconomic position using household income and ownership of common goods. RESULTS: Overall, PA levels did not vary largely between sites, with highest levels in South Africa, lowest in the US. Across all sites, greater PA was consistently associated with male gender, fewer years of education, manual occupations, lower income, and owning fewer material goods. We found heterogeneity across sites in car ownership: after adjustment for confounders, car owners in the US had 24.3 fewer minutes of MVPA compared to non-car owners in the US (20.7 vs. 45.1 minutes/day of MVPA); in the non-US sites, car-owners had an average of 9.7 fewer minutes of MVPA than non-car owners (24.9 vs. 34.6 minutes/day of MVPA). CONCLUSIONS: PA levels are similar across all study sites except Jamaica, despite very different levels of socioeconomic development. Not owning a car in the US is associated with especially high levels of MVPA. As car ownership becomes prevalent in the developing world, strategies to promote alternative forms of active transit may become important.

An introductory review on gravitational-deformation induced structures, fabrics and modeling

Recent studies have pointed out a similarity between tectonics and slope tectonic-induced structures. Numerous studies have demonstrated that structures and fabrics previously interpreted as of purely geodynamical origin are instead the result of large slope deformation, and this led in the past to erroneous interpretations. Nevertheless, their limit seems not clearly defined, but it is somehow transitional. Some studies point out continuity between failures developing at surface with upper crust movements. In this contribution, the main studies which examine the link between rock structures and slope movements are reviewed. The aspects regarding model and scale of observation are discussed together with the role of pre-existing weaknesses in the rock mass. As slope failures can develop through progressive failure, structures and their changes in time and space can be recognized. Furthermore, recognition of the origin of these structures can help in avoiding misinterpretations of regional geology. This also suggests the importance of integrating different slope movement classifications based on distribution and pattern of deformation and the application of structural geology techniques. A structural geology approach in the landslide community is a tool that can greatly support the hazard quantification and related risks, because most of the physical parameters, which are used for landslide modeling, are derived from geotechnical tests or the emerging geophysical approaches.

The cover basement contact beneath the Rawil axial depression (Western Alps) - True amplitude seismic processing, petrophysical properties, and modeling

Since 1986, several near-vertical seismic reflection profiles have been recorded in Switzerland in order to map the deep geologic structure of the Alps. One objective of this endeavour has been to determine the geometries of the autochthonous basement and of the external crystalline massifs, important elements for understanding the geodynamics of the Alpine orogeny. The PNR-20 seismic line W1, located in the Rawil depression of the western Swiss Alps, provides important information on this subject. It extends northward from the `'Penninic front'' across the Helvetic nappes to the Prealps. The crystalline massifs do not outcrop along this profile. Thus, the interpretation of `'near-basement'' reflections has to be constrained by down-dip projections of surface geology, `'true amplitude'' processing, rock physical property studies and modelling. 3-D seismic modelling has been used to evaluate the seismic response of two alternative down-dip projection models. To constrain the interpretation in the southern part of the profile, `'true amplitude'' processing has provided information on the strength of the reflections. Density and velocity measurements on core samples collected up-dip from the region of the seismic line have been used to evaluate reflection coefficients of typical lithologic boundaries in the region. The cover-basement contact itself is not a source of strong reflections, but strong reflections arise from within the overlaying metasedimentary cover sequence, allowing the geometry of the top of the basement to be determined on the basis of `'near-basement'' reflections. The front of the external crystalline massifs is shown to extend beneath the Prealps, about 6 km north of the expected position. A 2-D model whose seismic response shows reflection patterns very similar to the observed is proposed.

Protocol for the modeling the epidemiologic transition study: a longitudinal observational study of energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased in societies of all socio-cultural backgrounds. To date, guidelines set forward to prevent obesity have universally emphasized optimal levels of physical activity. However there are few empirical data to support the assertion that low levels of energy expenditure in activity is a causal factor in the current obesity epidemic are very limited. METHODS: The Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a cohort study designed to assess the association between physical activity levels and relative weight, weight gain and diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five population-based samples at different stages of economic development. Twenty-five hundred young adults, ages 25-45, were enrolled in the study; 500 from sites in Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the United States. At baseline, physical activity levels were assessed using accelerometry and a questionnaire in all participants and by doubly labeled water in a subsample of 75 per site. We assessed dietary intake using two separate 24-h recalls, body composition using bioelectrical impedance analysis, and health history, social and economic indicators by questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured and blood samples collected for measurement of lipids, glucose, insulin and adipokines. Full examination including physical activity using accelerometry, anthropometric data and fasting glucose will take place at 12 and 24 months. The distribution of the main variables and the associations between physical activity, independent of energy intake, glucose metabolism and anthropometric measures will be assessed using cross-section and longitudinal analysis within and between sites. DISCUSSION: METS will provide insight on the relative contribution of physical activity and diet to excess weight, age-related weight gain and incident glucose impairment in five populations' samples of young adults at different stages of economic development. These data should be useful for the development of empirically-based public health policy aimed at the prevention of obesity and associated chronic diseases.

Pore-scale modeling of two-phase flow instabilities in porous media

Les problèmes d'écoulements multiphasiques en média poreux sont d'un grand intérêt pour de nombreuses applications scientifiques et techniques ; comme la séquestration de C02, l'extraction de pétrole et la dépollution des aquifères. La complexité intrinsèque des systèmes multiphasiques et l'hétérogénéité des formations géologiques sur des échelles multiples représentent un challenge majeur pour comprendre et modéliser les déplacements immiscibles dans les milieux poreux. Les descriptions à l'échelle supérieure basées sur la généralisation de l'équation de Darcy sont largement utilisées, mais ces méthodes sont sujettes à limitations pour les écoulements présentant de l'hystérèse. Les avancées récentes en terme de performances computationnelles et le développement de méthodes précises pour caractériser l'espace interstitiel ainsi que la distribution des phases ont favorisé l'utilisation de modèles qui permettent une résolution fine à l'échelle du pore. Ces modèles offrent un aperçu des caractéristiques de l'écoulement qui ne peuvent pas être facilement observées en laboratoire et peuvent être utilisé pour expliquer la différence entre les processus physiques et les modèles à l'échelle macroscopique existants. L'objet premier de la thèse se porte sur la simulation numérique directe : les équations de Navier-Stokes sont résolues dans l'espace interstitiel et la méthode du volume de fluide (VOF) est employée pour suivre l'évolution de l'interface. Dans VOF, la distribution des phases est décrite par une fonction fluide pour l'ensemble du domaine et des conditions aux bords particulières permettent la prise en compte des propriétés de mouillage du milieu poreux. Dans la première partie de la thèse, nous simulons le drainage dans une cellule Hele-Shaw 2D avec des obstacles cylindriques. Nous montrons que l'approche proposée est applicable même pour des ratios de densité et de viscosité très importants et permet de modéliser la transition entre déplacement stable et digitation visqueuse. Nous intéressons ensuite à l'interprétation de la pression capillaire à l'échelle macroscopique. Nous montrons que les techniques basées sur la moyenne spatiale de la pression présentent plusieurs limitations et sont imprécises en présence d'effets visqueux et de piégeage. Au contraire, une définition basée sur l'énergie permet de séparer les contributions capillaires des effets visqueux. La seconde partie de la thèse est consacrée à l'investigation des effets d'inertie associés aux reconfigurations irréversibles du ménisque causé par l'interface des instabilités. Comme prototype pour ces phénomènes, nous étudions d'abord la dynamique d'un ménisque dans un pore angulaire. Nous montrons que, dans un réseau de pores cubiques, les sauts et reconfigurations sont si fréquents que les effets d'inertie mènent à différentes configurations des fluides. A cause de la non-linéarité du problème, la distribution des fluides influence le travail des forces de pression, qui, à son tour, provoque une chute de pression dans la loi de Darcy. Cela suggère que ces phénomènes devraient être pris en compte lorsque que l'on décrit l'écoulement multiphasique en média poreux à l'échelle macroscopique. La dernière partie de la thèse s'attache à démontrer la validité de notre approche par une comparaison avec des expériences en laboratoire : un drainage instable dans un milieu poreux quasi 2D (une cellule Hele-Shaw avec des obstacles cylindriques). Plusieurs simulations sont tournées sous différentes conditions aux bords et en utilisant différents modèles (modèle intégré 2D et modèle 3D) afin de comparer certaines quantités macroscopiques avec les observations au laboratoire correspondantes. Malgré le challenge de modéliser des déplacements instables, où, par définition, de petites perturbations peuvent grandir sans fin, notre approche numérique apporte de résultats satisfaisants pour tous les cas étudiés. - Problems involving multiphase flow in porous media are of great interest in many scientific and engineering applications including Carbon Capture and Storage, oil recovery and groundwater remediation. The intrinsic complexity of multiphase systems and the multi scale heterogeneity of geological formations represent the major challenges to understand and model immiscible displacement in porous media. Upscaled descriptions based on generalization of Darcy's law are widely used, but they are subject to several limitations for flow that exhibit hysteric and history- dependent behaviors. Recent advances in high performance computing and the development of accurate methods to characterize pore space and phase distribution have fostered the use of models that allow sub-pore resolution. These models provide an insight on flow characteristics that cannot be easily achieved by laboratory experiments and can be used to explain the gap between physical processes and existing macro-scale models. We focus on direct numerical simulations: we solve the Navier-Stokes equations for mass and momentum conservation in the pore space and employ the Volume Of Fluid (VOF) method to track the evolution of the interface. In the VOF the distribution of the phases is described by a fluid function (whole-domain formulation) and special boundary conditions account for the wetting properties of the porous medium. In the first part of this thesis we simulate drainage in a 2-D Hele-Shaw cell filled with cylindrical obstacles. We show that the proposed approach can handle very large density and viscosity ratios and it is able to model the transition from stable displacement to viscous fingering. We then focus on the interpretation of the macroscopic capillary pressure showing that pressure average techniques are subject to several limitations and they are not accurate in presence of viscous effects and trapping. On the contrary an energy-based definition allows separating viscous and capillary contributions. In the second part of the thesis we investigate inertia effects associated with abrupt and irreversible reconfigurations of the menisci caused by interface instabilities. As a prototype of these phenomena we first consider the dynamics of a meniscus in an angular pore. We show that in a network of cubic pores, jumps and reconfigurations are so frequent that inertia effects lead to different fluid configurations. Due to the non-linearity of the problem, the distribution of the fluids influences the work done by pressure forces, which is in turn related to the pressure drop in Darcy's law. This suggests that these phenomena should be taken into account when upscaling multiphase flow in porous media. The last part of the thesis is devoted to proving the accuracy of the numerical approach by validation with experiments of unstable primary drainage in a quasi-2D porous medium (i.e., Hele-Shaw cell filled with cylindrical obstacles). We perform simulations under different boundary conditions and using different models (2-D integrated and full 3-D) and we compare several macroscopic quantities with the corresponding experiment. Despite the intrinsic challenges of modeling unstable displacement, where by definition small perturbations can grow without bounds, the numerical method gives satisfactory results for all the cases studied.

Comparisons of intensity-duration patterns of physical activity in the US, Jamaica and 3 African countries.

BACKGROUND: This difference in how populations living in low-, middle or upper-income countries accumulate daily PA, i.e. patterns and intensity, is an important part in addressing the global PA movement. We sought to characterize objective PA in 2,500 participants spanning the epidemiologic transition. The Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a longitudinal study, in 5 countries. METS seeks to define the association between physical activity (PA), obesity and CVD risk in populations of African origin: Ghana (GH), South Africa (SA), Seychelles (SEY), Jamaica (JA) and the US (suburban Chicago). METHODS: Baseline measurements of objective PA, SES, anthropometrics and body composition, were completed on 2,500 men and women, aged 25-45 years. Moderate and vigorous PA (MVPA, min/d) on week and weekend days was explored ecologically, by adiposity status and manual labor. RESULTS: Among the men, obesity prevalence reflected the level of economic transition and was lowest in GH (1.7%) and SA (4.8%) and highest in the US (41%). SA (55%) and US (65%) women had the highest levels of obesity, compared to only 16% in GH. More men and women in developing countries engaged in manual labor and this was reflected by an almost doubling of measured MPVA among the men in GH (45 min/d) and SA (47 min/d) compared to only 28 min/d in the US. Women in GH (25 min/d), SA (21 min/d), JA (20 min/d) and SEY (20 min/d) accumulated significantly more MPVA than women in the US (14 min/d), yet this difference was not reflected by differences in BMI between SA, JA, SEY and US. Moderate PA constituted the bulk of the PA, with no study populations except SA men accumulating > 5 min/d of vigorous PA. Among the women, no sites accumulated >2 min/d of vigorous PA. Overweight/obese men were 22% less likely to engage in manual occupations. CONCLUSION: While there is some association for PA with obesity, this relationship is inconsistent across the epidemiologic transition and suggests that PA policy recommendations should be tailored for each environment.

A comparison of indices of glucose metabolism in five black populations: data from modeling the epidemiologic transition study (METS).

BACKGROUND: Globally, Africans and African Americans experience a disproportionate burden of type 2 diabetes, compared to other race and ethnic groups. The aim of the study was to examine the association of plasma glucose with indices of glucose metabolism in young adults of African origin from 5 different countries. METHODS: We identified participants from the Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study, an international study of weight change and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in five populations of African origin: USA (US), Jamaica, Ghana, South Africa, and Seychelles. For the current study, we included 667 participants (34.8 ± 6.3 years), with measures of plasma glucose, insulin, leptin, and adiponectin, as well as moderate and vigorous physical activity (MVPA, minutes/day [min/day]), daily sedentary time (min/day), anthropometrics, and body composition. RESULTS: Among the 282 men, body mass index (BMI) ranged from 22.1 to 29.6 kg/m(2) in men and from 25.8 to 34.8 kg/m(2) in 385 women. MVPA ranged from 26.2 to 47.1 min/day in men, and from 14.3 to 27.3 min/day in women and correlated with adiposity (BMI, waist size, and % body fat) only among US males after controlling for age. Plasma glucose ranged from 4.6 ± 0.8 mmol/L in the South African men to 5.8 mmol/L US men, while the overall prevalence for diabetes was very low, except in the US men and women (6.7 and 12 %, respectively). Using multivariate linear regression, glucose was associated with BMI, age, sex, smoking hypertension, daily sedentary time but not daily MVPA. CONCLUSION: Obesity, metabolic risk, and other potential determinants vary significantly between populations at differing stages of the epidemiologic transition, requiring tailored public health policies to address local population characteristics.

Geological realism in hydrogeological and geophysical inverse modeling: A review

Scientific curiosity, exploration of georesources and environmental concerns are pushing the geoscientific research community toward subsurface investigations of ever-increasing complexity. This review explores various approaches to formulate and solve inverse problems in ways that effectively integrate geological concepts with geophysical and hydrogeological data. Modern geostatistical simulation algorithms can produce multiple subsurface realizations that are in agreement with conceptual geological models and statistical rock physics can be used to map these realizations into physical properties that are sensed by the geophysical or hydrogeological data. The inverse problem consists of finding one or an ensemble of such subsurface realizations that are in agreement with the data. The most general inversion frameworks are presently often computationally intractable when applied to large-scale problems and it is necessary to better understand the implications of simplifying (1) the conceptual geological model (e.g., using model compression); (2) the physical forward problem (e.g., using proxy models); and (3) the algorithm used to solve the inverse problem (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo or local optimization methods) to reach practical and robust solutions given today's computer resources and knowledge. We also highlight the need to not only use geophysical and hydrogeological data for parameter estimation purposes, but also to use them to falsify or corroborate alternative geological scenarios.

Daily physical activities and sports in adult survivors of childhood cancer and healthy controls: a population-based questionnaire survey.

BACKGROUND: Healthy lifestyle including sufficient physical activity may mitigate or prevent adverse long-term effects of childhood cancer. We described daily physical activities and sports in childhood cancer survivors and controls, and assessed determinants of both activity patterns. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a questionnaire survey including all children diagnosed with cancer 1976-2003 at age 0-15 years, registered in the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry, who survived ≥5 years and reached adulthood (≥20 years). Controls came from the population-based Swiss Health Survey. We compared the two populations and determined risk factors for both outcomes in separate multivariable logistic regression models. The sample included 1058 survivors and 5593 controls (response rates 78% and 66%). Sufficient daily physical activities were reported by 52% (n = 521) of survivors and 37% (n = 2069) of controls (p<0.001). In contrast, 62% (n = 640) of survivors and 65% (n = 3635) of controls reported engaging in sports (p = 0.067). Risk factors for insufficient daily activities in both populations were: older age (OR for ≥35 years: 1.5, 95CI 1.2-2.0), female gender (OR 1.6, 95CI 1.3-1.9), French/Italian Speaking (OR 1.4, 95CI 1.1-1.7), and higher education (OR for university education: 2.0, 95CI 1.5-2.6). Risk factors for no sports were: being a survivor (OR 1.3, 95CI 1.1-1.6), older age (OR for ≥35 years: 1.4, 95CI 1.1-1.8), migration background (OR 1.5, 95CI 1.3-1.8), French/Italian speaking (OR 1.4, 95CI 1.2-1.7), lower education (OR for compulsory schooling only: 1.6, 95CI 1.2-2.2), being married (OR 1.7, 95CI 1.5-2.0), having children (OR 1.3, 95CI 1.4-1.9), obesity (OR 2.4, 95CI 1.7-3.3), and smoking (OR 1.7, 95CI 1.5-2.1). Type of diagnosis was only associated with sports. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Physical activity levels in survivors were lower than recommended, but comparable to controls and mainly determined by socio-demographic and cultural factors. Strategies to improve physical activity levels could be similar as for the general population.

New measurements of energy expenditure and physical activity in chronic kidney disease.

The accurate estimation of total daily energy expenditure (TEE) in chronic kidney patients is essential to allow the provision of nutritional requirements; however, it remains a challenge to collect actual physical activity and resting energy expenditure in maintenance dialysis patients. The direct measurement of TEE by direct calorimetry or doubly labeled water cannot be used easily so that, in clinical practice, TEE is usually estimated from resting energy expenditure and physical activity. Prediction equations may also be used to estimate resting energy expenditure; however, their use has been poorly documented in dialysis patients. Recently, a new system called SenseWear Armband (BodyMedia, Pittsburgh, PA) was developed to assess TEE, but so far no data have been published in chronic kidney disease patients. The aim of this review is to describe new measurements of energy expenditure and physical activity in chronic kidney disease patients.