Extreme Precipitation Modelling Using Geostatistics and Machine Learning Algorithms

The paper presents an approach for mapping of precipitation data. The main goal is to perform spatial predictions and simulations of precipitation fields using geostatistical methods (ordinary kriging, kriging with external drift) as well as machine learning algorithms (neural networks). More practically, the objective is to reproduce simultaneously both the spatial patterns and the extreme values. This objective is best reached by models integrating geostatistics and machine learning algorithms. To demonstrate how such models work, two case studies have been considered: first, a 2-day accumulation of heavy precipitation and second, a 6-day accumulation of extreme orographic precipitation. The first example is used to compare the performance of two optimization algorithms (conjugate gradients and Levenberg-Marquardt) of a neural network for the reproduction of extreme values. Hybrid models, which combine geostatistical and machine learning algorithms, are also treated in this context. The second dataset is used to analyze the contribution of radar Doppler imagery when used as external drift or as input in the models (kriging with external drift and neural networks). Model assessment is carried out by comparing independent validation errors as well as analyzing data patterns.

Variation and evolution of herkogamy in Exochaenium (Gentianaceae): implications for the evolution of distyly.

Backgrounds and Aims The spatial separation of stigmas and anthers (herkogamy) in flowering plants functions to reduce self-pollination and avoid interference between pollen dispersal and receipt. Little is known about the evolutionary relationships among the three main forms of herkogamy - approach, reverse and reciprocal herkogamy (distyly) - or about transitions to and from a non-herkogamous condition. This problem was examined in Exochaenium (Gentianaceae), a genus of African herbs that exhibits considerable variation in floral morphology, including the three forms of herkogamy. Methods Using maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood methods, the evolutionary history of herkogamic and non-herkogamic conditions was reconstructed from a molecular phylogeny of 15 species of Exochaenium and four outgroup taxa, based on three chloroplast regions, the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (ITS1 and 2) and the 5·8S gene. Ancestral character states were determined and the reconstructions were used to evaluate competing models for the origin of reciprocal herkogamy. Key results Reciprocal herkogamy originated once in Exochaenium from an ancestor with approach herkogamy. Reverse herkogamy and the non-herkogamic condition homostyly were derived from heterostyly. Distylous species possessed pendent, slightly zygomorphic flowers, and the single transition to reverse herkogamy was associated with the hawkmoth pollination syndrome. Reductions in flower size characterized three of four independent transitions from reciprocal herkogamy to homostyly. Conclusions The results support Lloyd and Webb's model in which distyly originated from an ancestor with approach herkogamy. They also demonstrate the lability of sex organ deployment and implicate pollinators, or their absence, as playing an important role in driving transitions among herkogamic and non-herkogamic conditions.

Blood pressure loci identified with a gene-centric array.

Raised blood pressure (BP) is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Previous studies have identified 47 distinct genetic variants robustly associated with BP, but collectively these explain only a few percent of the heritability for BP phenotypes. To find additional BP loci, we used a bespoke gene-centric array to genotype an independent discovery sample of 25,118 individuals that combined hypertensive case-control and general population samples. We followed up four SNPs associated with BP at our p < 8.56 × 10(-7) study-specific significance threshold and six suggestively associated SNPs in a further 59,349 individuals. We identified and replicated a SNP at LSP1/TNNT3, a SNP at MTHFR-NPPB independent (r(2) = 0.33) of previous reports, and replicated SNPs at AGT and ATP2B1 reported previously. An analysis of combined discovery and follow-up data identified SNPs significantly associated with BP at p < 8.56 × 10(-7) at four further loci (NPR3, HFE, NOS3, and SOX6). The high number of discoveries made with modest genotyping effort can be attributed to using a large-scale yet targeted genotyping array and to the development of a weighting scheme that maximized power when meta-analyzing results from samples ascertained with extreme phenotypes, in combination with results from nonascertained or population samples. Chromatin immunoprecipitation and transcript expression data highlight potential gene regulatory mechanisms at the MTHFR and NOS3 loci. These results provide candidates for further study to help dissect mechanisms affecting BP and highlight the utility of studying SNPs and samples that are independent of those studied previously even when the sample size is smaller than that in previous studies.

New gene functions in megakaryopoiesis and platelet formation.

Platelets are the second most abundant cell type in blood and are essential for maintaining haemostasis. Their count and volume are tightly controlled within narrow physiological ranges, but there is only limited understanding of the molecular processes controlling both traits. Here we carried out a high-powered meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in up to 66,867 individuals of European ancestry, followed by extensive biological and functional assessment. We identified 68 genomic loci reliably associated with platelet count and volume mapping to established and putative novel regulators of megakaryopoiesis and platelet formation. These genes show megakaryocyte-specific gene expression patterns and extensive network connectivity. Using gene silencing in Danio rerio and Drosophila melanogaster, we identified 11 of the genes as novel regulators of blood cell formation. Taken together, our findings advance understanding of novel gene functions controlling fate-determining events during megakaryopoiesis and platelet formation, providing a new example of successful translation of GWAS to function.

Detection of Optimal Models in Parameter Space with Support Vector Machines

The paper proposes an approach aimed at detecting optimal model parameter combinations to achieve the most representative description of uncertainty in the model performance. A classification problem is posed to find the regions of good fitting models according to the values of a cost function. Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification in the parameter space is applied to decide if a forward model simulation is to be computed for a particular generated model. SVM is particularly designed to tackle classification problems in high-dimensional space in a non-parametric and non-linear way. SVM decision boundaries determine the regions that are subject to the largest uncertainty in the cost function classification, and, therefore, provide guidelines for further iterative exploration of the model space. The proposed approach is illustrated by a synthetic example of fluid flow through porous media, which features highly variable response due to the parameter values' combination.

Lung microbiota promotes tolerance to allergens in neonates via PD-L1.

Epidemiological data point toward a critical period in early life during which environmental cues can set an individual on a trajectory toward respiratory health or disease. The neonatal immune system matures during this period, although little is known about the signals that lead to its maturation. Here we report that the formation of the lung microbiota is a key parameter in this process. Immediately following birth, neonatal mice were prone to develop exaggerated airway eosinophilia, release type 2 helper T cell cytokines and exhibit airway hyper-responsiveness following exposure to house dust mite allergens, even though their lungs harbored high numbers of natural CD4(+)Foxp3(+)CD25(+)Helios(+) regulatory T (Treg) cells. During the first 2 weeks after birth, the bacterial load in the lungs increased, and representation of the bacterial phyla shifts from a predominance of Gammaproteobacteria and Firmicutes towards Bacteroidetes. The changes in the microbiota were associated with decreased aeroallergen responsiveness and the emergence of a Helios(-) Treg cell subset that required interaction with programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) for development. Absence of microbial colonization(10) or blockade of PD-L1 during the first 2 weeks postpartum maintained exaggerated responsiveness to allergens through to adulthood. Adoptive transfer of Treg cells from adult mice to neonates before aeroallergen exposure ameliorated disease. Thus, formation of the airway microbiota induces regulatory cells early in life, which, when dysregulated, can lead to sustained susceptibility to allergic airway inflammation in adulthood.

Seventy-five genetic loci influencing the human red blood cell.

Anaemia is a chief determinant of global ill health, contributing to cognitive impairment, growth retardation and impaired physical capacity. To understand further the genetic factors influencing red blood cells, we carried out a genome-wide association study of haemoglobin concentration and related parameters in up to 135,367 individuals. Here we identify 75 independent genetic loci associated with one or more red blood cell phenotypes at P < 10(-8), which together explain 4-9% of the phenotypic variance per trait. Using expression quantitative trait loci and bioinformatic strategies, we identify 121 candidate genes enriched in functions relevant to red blood cell biology. The candidate genes are expressed preferentially in red blood cell precursors, and 43 have haematopoietic phenotypes in Mus musculus or Drosophila melanogaster. Through open-chromatin and coding-variant analyses we identify potential causal genetic variants at 41 loci. Our findings provide extensive new insights into genetic mechanisms and biological pathways controlling red blood cell formation and function.

The Waddlia genome: a window into chlamydial biology.

Growing evidence suggests that a novel member of the Chlamydiales order, Waddlia chondrophila, is a potential agent of miscarriage in humans and abortion in ruminants. Due to the lack of genetic tools to manipulate chlamydia, genomic analysis is proving to be the most incisive tool in stimulating investigations into the biology of these obligate intracellular bacteria. 454/Roche and Solexa/Illumina technologies were thus used to sequence and assemble de novo the full genome of the first representative of the Waddliaceae family, W. chondrophila. The bacteria possesses a 2'116'312 bp chromosome and a 15'593 bp low-copy number plasmid that might integrate into the bacterial chromosome. The Waddlia genome displays numerous repeated sequences indicating different genome dynamics from classical chlamydia which almost completely lack repetitive elements. Moreover, W. chondrophila exhibits many virulence factors also present in classical chlamydia, including a functional type III secretion system, but also a large complement of specific factors for resistance to host or environmental stresses. Large families of outer membrane proteins were identified indicating that these highly immunogenic proteins are not Chlamydiaceae specific and might have been present in their last common ancestor. Enhanced metabolic capability for the synthesis of nucleotides, amino acids, lipids and other co-factors suggests that the common ancestor of the modern Chlamydiales may have been less dependent on their eukaryotic host. The fine-detailed analysis of biosynthetic pathways brings us closer to possibly developing a synthetic medium to grow W. chondrophila, a critical step in the development of genetic tools. As a whole, the availability of the W. chondrophila genome opens new possibilities in Chlamydiales research, providing new insights into the evolution of members of the order Chlamydiales and the biology of the Waddliaceae.

Of flies, mice and men: a systematic approach to understanding the early life origins of chronic lung disease.

Despite intensive research efforts, the aetiology of the majority of chronic lung diseases (CLD) in both, children and adults, remains elusive. Current therapeutic options are limited, providing only symptomatic relief, rather than treating the underlying condition, or preventing its development in the first place. Thus, there is a strong and unmet clinical need for the development of both, novel effective therapies and preventative strategies for CLD. Many studies suggest that modifications of prenatal and/or early postnatal lung development will have important implications for future lung function and risk of CLD throughout life. This view represents a fundamental change of current pathophysiological concepts and treatment paradigms, and holds the potential to develop novel preventative and/or therapeutic strategies. However, for the successful development of such approaches, key questions, such as a clear understanding of underlying mechanisms of impaired lung development, the identification and validation of relevant preclinical models to facilitate translational research, and the development of concepts for correction of aberrant development, all need to be solved. Accordingly, a European Science Foundation Exploratory Workshop was held where clinical, translational and basic research scientists from different disciplines met to discuss potential mechanisms of developmental origins of CLD, and to identify major knowledge gaps in order to delineate a roadmap for future integrative research.

Comparison of Immunogenicity in Rhesus Macaques of Transmitted-Founder, HIV-1 Group M Consensus, and Trivalent Mosaic Envelope Vaccines Formulated as a DNA Prime, NYVAC, and Envelope Protein Boost.

An effective human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) vaccine must induce protective antibody responses, as well as CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cell responses, that can be effective despite extraordinary diversity of HIV-1. The consensus and mosaic immunogens are complete but artificial proteins, computationally designed to elicit immune responses with improved cross-reactive breadth, to attempt to overcome the challenge of global HIV diversity. In this study, we have compared the immunogenicity of a transmitted-founder (T/F) B clade Env (B.1059), a global group M consensus Env (Con-S), and a global trivalent mosaic Env protein in rhesus macaques. These antigens were delivered using a DNA prime-recombinant NYVAC (rNYVAC) vector and Env protein boost vaccination strategy. While Con-S Env was a single sequence, mosaic immunogens were a set of three Envs optimized to include the most common forms of potential T cell epitopes. Both Con-S and mosaic sequences retained common amino acids encompassed by both antibody and T cell epitopes and were central to globally circulating strains. Mosaics and Con-S Envs expressed as full-length proteins bound well to a number of neutralizing antibodies with discontinuous epitopes. Also, both consensus and mosaic immunogens induced significantly higher gamma interferon (IFN-γ) enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot assay (ELISpot) responses than B.1059 immunogen. Immunization with these proteins, particularly Con-S, also induced significantly higher neutralizing antibodies to viruses than B.1059 Env, primarily to tier 1 viruses. Both Con-S and mosaics stimulated more potent CD8-T cell responses against heterologous Envs than did B.1059. Both antibody and cellular data from this study strengthen the concept of using in silico-designed centralized immunogens for global HIV-1 vaccine development strategies. IMPORTANCE: There is an increasing appreciation for the importance of vaccine-induced anti-Env antibody responses for preventing HIV-1 acquisition. This nonhuman primate study demonstrates that in silico-designed global HIV-1 immunogens, designed for a human clinical trial, are capable of eliciting not only T lymphocyte responses but also potent anti-Env antibody responses.

Abrogation of HMX1 function causes rare oculoauricular syndrome associated with congenital cataract, anterior segment dysgenesis, and retinal dystrophy.

PURPOSE: To define the phenotypic manifestation, confirm the genetic basis, and delineate the pathogenic mechanisms underlying an oculoauricular syndrome (OAS). METHODS: Two individuals from a consanguineous family underwent comprehensive clinical phenotyping and electrodiagnostic testing (EDT). Genome-wide microarray analysis and Sanger sequencing of the candidate gene were used to identify the likely causal variant. Protein modelling, Western blotting, and dual luciferase assays were used to assess the pathogenic effect of the variant in vitro. RESULTS: Complex developmental ocular abnormalities of congenital cataract, anterior segment dysgenesis, iris coloboma, early-onset retinal dystrophy, and abnormal external ear cartilage presented in the affected family members. Genetic analyses identified a homozygous c.650A>C; p.(Gln217Pro) missense mutation within the highly conserved homeodomain of the H6 family homeobox 1 (HMX1) gene. Protein modelling predicts that the variant may have a detrimental effect on protein folding and/or stability. In vitro analyses were able to demonstrate that the mutation has no effect on protein expression but adversely alters function. CONCLUSIONS: Oculoauricular syndrome is an autosomal recessive condition that has a profound effect on the development of the external ear, anterior segment, and retina, leading to significant visual loss at an early age. This study has delineated the phenotype and confirmed HMX1 as the gene causative of OAS, enabling the description of only the second family with the condition. HMX1 is a key player in ocular development, possibly in both the pathway responsible for lens and retina development, and via the gene network integral to optic fissure closure.

Thromboxane prostaglandin receptor antagonist and carotid atherosclerosis progression in patients with cerebrovascular disease of ischemic origin: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Thromboxane prostaglandin receptors have been implicated to be involved in the atherosclerotic process. We assessed whether Terutroban, a thromboxane prostaglandin receptor antagonist, affects the progression of atherosclerosis, as measured by common carotid intima-media thickness and carotid plaques. METHODS: A substudy was performed among 1141 participants of the aspirin-controlled Prevention of Cerebrovascular and Cardiovascular Events of Ischemic Origin with Terutroban in Patients with a History of Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack (PERFORM) trial. Common carotid intima-media thickness and carotid plaque occurrence was measured during a 3-year period. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics did not differ between Terutroban (n=592) and aspirin (n=549) treated patients and were similar as in the main study. Mean study and treatment duration were similar (28 and 25 months, respectively). In the Terutroban group, the annualized rate of change in common carotid intima-media thickness was 0.006 mm per year (95% confidence interval, -0.004 to 0.016) and -0.005 mm per year (95% confidence interval, -0.015 to 0.005) in the aspirin group. There was no statistically significant difference between the groups in the annualized rate of change of common carotid intima-media thickness (0.011 mm per year; 95% confidence interval, -0.003 to 0.025). At 12 months of follow-up, 66% of Terutroban patients had no emergent plaques, 31% had 1 to 2 emergent plaques, and 3% had ≥3 emergent plaques. In the aspirin group, the corresponding percentages were 64%, 32%, and 4%. Over time, there was no statistically significant difference in the number of emergent carotid plaques between treatment modalities (rate ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-1.07). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with aspirin, Terutroban did not beneficially affect progression of carotid atherosclerosis among well-treated patients with a history of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attacks with an internal carotid stenosis <70%. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN66157730.