Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Quantification of in vivo short echo-time proton magnetic resonance spectra at 14.1 T using two different approaches of modelling the macromolecule spectrum

Reliable quantification of the macromolecule signals in short echo-time H-1 MRS spectra is particularly important at high magnetic fields for an accurate quantification of metabolite concentrations (the neurochemical profile) due to effectively increased spectral resolution of the macromolecule components. The purpose of the present study was to assess two approaches of quantification, which take the contribution of macromolecules into account in the quantification step. H-1 spectra were acquired on a 14.1 T/26 cm horizontal scanner on five rats using the ultra-short echo-time SPECIAL (spin echo full intensity acquired localization) spectroscopy sequence. Metabolite concentrations were estimated using LCModel, combined with a simulated basis set of metabolites using published spectral parameters and either the spectrum of macromolecules measured in vivo, using an inversion recovery technique, or baseline simulated by the built-in spline function. The fitted spline function resulted in a smooth approximation of the in vivo macromolecules, but in accordance with previous studies using Subtract-QUEST could not reproduce completely all features of the in vivo spectrum of macromolecules at 14.1 T. As a consequence, the measured macromolecular 'baseline' led to a more accurate and reliable quantification at higher field strengths.

Melanism, body condition and elevational distribution in the asp viper

Alternative morphotypes can confer important selective advantages in different habitats, whereas they can be penalized in other circumstances. In ectotherms, such as reptiles, the body colour can have direct effects on numerous aspects of their existence, such as thermoregulation or prey-predator interactions. Darker melanic individuals show lower skin reflectance and consequently heat up more rapidly and maintain optimal body temperatures more easily than lighter coloured individuals. As a consequence, melanistic individuals of diurnal species in cool areas may exhibit higher body condition, growth rate, survival and fecundity than lighter coloured individuals. Such advantages of dark coloration may be counterbalanced by a lower crypsis to predators and a decreased foraging efficiency. We investigated, in two montane populations of asp vipers Vipera aspis, the relationship between (1) colour polymorphism and body condition and length and (2) the coloration of individuals and their elevational distribution. We showed significant relationships between (1) the coloration, body condition and sex of individuals; (2) sexes and reproductive state and morph frequency; and (3) colour morphs that were distributed following an elevational gradient. Hence, colour polymorphism plays an important role in the ecology and evolution of the asp viper and is maintained through differential selective pressures.

Melanin-based colour polymorphism responding to climate change.

Climate warming leads to a decrease in biodiversity. Organisms can deal with the new prevailing environmental conditions by one of two main routes, namely evolving new genetic adaptations or through phenotypic plasticity to modify behaviour and physiology. Melanin-based colouration has important functions in animals including a role in camouflage and thermoregulation, protection against UV-radiation and pathogens and, furthermore, genes involved in melanogenesis can pleiotropically regulate behaviour and physiology. In this article, I review the current evidence that differently coloured individuals are differentially sensitive to climate change. Predicting which of dark or pale colour variants (or morphs) will be more penalized by climate change will depend on the adaptive function of melanism in each species as well as how the degree of colouration covaries with behaviour and physiology. For instance, because climate change leads to a rise in temperature and UV-radiation and dark colouration plays a role in UV-protection, dark individuals may be less affected from global warming, if this phenomenon implies more solar radiation particularly in habitats of pale individuals. In contrast, as desertification increases, pale colouration may expand in those regions, whereas dark colourations may expand in regions where humidity is predicted to increase. Dark colouration may be also indirectly selected by climate warming because genes involved in the production of melanin pigments confer resistance to a number of stressful factors including those associated with climate warming. Furthermore, darker melanic individuals are commonly more aggressive than paler conspecifics, and hence they may better cope with competitive interactions due to invading species that expand their range in northern latitudes and at higher altitudes. To conclude, melanin may be a major component involved in adaptation to climate warming, and hence in animal populations melanin-based colouration is likely to change as an evolutionary or plastic response to climate warming.

Asymmetry of Functional Connectivity in Schizophrenia at Different Spatial Scales

Introduction: The interhemispheric asymmetries that originate from connectivity-related structuring of the cerebral cortex are compromised in schizophrenia (SZ). Recently, we have revealed the whole-head topography of EEG synchronization in SZ (Jalili et al. 2007; Knyazeva et al. 2008). Here we extended the analysis to assess the abnormality in the asymmetry of synchronization, which is further motivated by the evidence that the interhemispheric asymmetries suspected to be abnormal in SZ originate from the connectivity-related structuring of the cortex. Methods: Thirteen right-handed SZ patients and thirteen matched controls, participated in this study and the multichannel (128) EEGs were recorded for 3-5 minutes at rest. Then, Laplacian EEG (LEEG) were calculated using a 2-D spline. The LEEGs were analysis through calculating the power spectral density using Welch's average periodogram method. Furthermore, using a state-space based multivariate synchronization measure, S-estimator, we analyzed the correlate of the functional cortico-cortical connectivity in SZ patients compared to the controls. The values of S-estimator were obtained at three different special scales: first-order neighbors for each sensor location, second-order neighbors, and the whole hemisphere. The synchronization measures based on LEEG of alpha and beta bands were applied and tuned to various spatial scales including local, intraregional, and long-distance levels. To assess the between-group differences, we used a permutation version of Hotelling's T2 test. For correlation analysis, Spearman Rank Correlation was calculated. Results: Compared to the controls, who had rightward asymmetry at a local level (LEEG power), rightward anterior and leftward posterior asymmetries at an intraregional level (first- and second-order S-estimator), and rightward global asymmetry (hemispheric S-estimator), SZ patients showed generally attenuated asymmetry, the effect being strongest for intraregional synchronization. This deviation in asymmetry across the anterior-to-posterior axis is consistent with the cerebral form of the so-called Yakovlevian or anticlockwise cerebral torque. Moreover, the negative occipital and positive frontal asymmetry values suggest higher regional synchronization among the left occipital and the right frontal locations relative to their symmetrical counterparts. Correlation analysis linked the posterior intraregional and hemispheric abnormalities to the negative SZ symptoms, whereas the asymmetry of LEEG power appeared to be weakly coupled to clinical ratings. The posterior intraregional abnormalities of asymmetry were shown to increase with the duration of the disease. The tentative links between these findings and gross anatomical asymmetries, including the cerebral torque and gyrification pattern in normal subjects and SZ patients, are discussed. Conclusions: Overall, our findings reveal the abnormalities in the synchronization asymmetry in SZ patients and heavy involvement of the right hemisphere in these abnormalities. These results indicate that anomalous asymmetry of cortico-cortical connections in schizophrenia is amenable to electrophysiological analysis.

An evaluation of new parsimony-based versus parametric inference methods in biogeography: a case study using the globally distributed plant family Sapindaceae

Aim  Recently developed parametric methods in historical biogeography allow researchers to integrate temporal and palaeogeographical information into the reconstruction of biogeographical scenarios, thus overcoming a known bias of parsimony-based approaches. Here, we compare a parametric method, dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC), against a parsimony-based method, dispersal-vicariance analysis (DIVA), which does not incorporate branch lengths but accounts for phylogenetic uncertainty through a Bayesian empirical approach (Bayes-DIVA). We analyse the benefits and limitations of each method using the cosmopolitan plant family Sapindaceae as a case study.Location  World-wide.Methods  Phylogenetic relationships were estimated by Bayesian inference on a large dataset representing generic diversity within Sapindaceae. Lineage divergence times were estimated by penalized likelihood over a sample of trees from the posterior distribution of the phylogeny to account for dating uncertainty in biogeographical reconstructions. We compared biogeographical scenarios between Bayes-DIVA and two different DEC models: one with no geological constraints and another that employed a stratified palaeogeographical model in which dispersal rates were scaled according to area connectivity across four time slices, reflecting the changing continental configuration over the last 110 million years.Results  Despite differences in the underlying biogeographical model, Bayes-DIVA and DEC inferred similar biogeographical scenarios. The main differences were: (1) in the timing of dispersal events - which in Bayes-DIVA sometimes conflicts with palaeogeographical information, and (2) in the lower frequency of terminal dispersal events inferred by DEC. Uncertainty in divergence time estimations influenced both the inference of ancestral ranges and the decisiveness with which an area can be assigned to a node.Main conclusions  By considering lineage divergence times, the DEC method gives more accurate reconstructions that are in agreement with palaeogeographical evidence. In contrast, Bayes-DIVA showed the highest decisiveness in unequivocally reconstructing ancestral ranges, probably reflecting its ability to integrate phylogenetic uncertainty. Care should be taken in defining the palaeogeographical model in DEC because of the possibility of overestimating the frequency of extinction events, or of inferring ancestral ranges that are outside the extant species ranges, owing to dispersal constraints enforced by the model. The wide-spanning spatial and temporal model proposed here could prove useful for testing large-scale biogeographical patterns in plants.

Direct Fourier Tomographic Reconstruction Image-To-Image Filter

We present an open-source ITK implementation of a directFourier method for tomographic reconstruction, applicableto parallel-beam x-ray images. Direct Fourierreconstruction makes use of the central-slice theorem tobuild a polar 2D Fourier space from the 1D transformedprojections of the scanned object, that is resampled intoa Cartesian grid. Inverse 2D Fourier transform eventuallyyields the reconstructed image. Additionally, we providea complex wrapper to the BSplineInterpolateImageFunctionto overcome ITKâeuro?s current lack for image interpolatorsdealing with complex data types. A sample application ispresented and extensively illustrated on the Shepp-Loganhead phantom. We show that appropriate input zeropaddingand 2D-DFT oversampling rates together with radial cubicb-spline interpolation improve 2D-DFT interpolationquality and are efficient remedies to reducereconstruction artifacts.

Concentration-dependent half-lives of polychlorinated biphenyl in sera from an occupational cohort.

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are carcinogenic. Estimating PCB half-life in the body based on levels in sera from exposed workers is complicated by the fact that occupational exposure to PCBs was to commercial PCB products (such as Aroclors 1242 and 1254) comprised of varying mixtures of PCB congeners. Half-lives were estimated using sera donated by 191 capacitor manufacturing plant workers in 1976 during PCB use (1946-1977), and post-exposure (1979, 1983, and 1988). Our aims were to: (1) determine the role of covariates such as gender on the half-life estimates, and (2) compare our results with other published half-life estimates based on exposed workers. All serum PCB levels were adjusted for PCB background levels. A linear spline model with a single knot was used to estimate two separate linear equations for the first two serum draws (Equation A) and the latter two (Equation B). Equation A gave half-life estimates of 1.74 years and 6.01 years for Aroclor 1242 and Aroclor 1254, respectively. Estimates were 21.83 years for Aroclor 1242 and 133.33 years for Aroclor 1254 using Equation B. High initial body burden was associated with rapid PCB elimination in workers at or shortly after the time they were occupationally exposed and slowed down considerably when the dose reached background PCB levels. These concentration-dependent half-life estimates had a transition point of 138.57 and 34.78 ppb for Aroclor 1242 and 1254, respectively. This result will help in understanding the toxicological and epidemiological impact of exposure to PCBs in humans.

Integrated methodologies to study human transcriptional regulation from functional genomics data

Abstract : The human body is composed of a huge number of cells acting together in a concerted manner. The current understanding is that proteins perform most of the necessary activities in keeping a cell alive. The DNA, on the other hand, stores the information on how to produce the different proteins in the genome. Regulating gene transcription is the first important step that can thus affect the life of a cell, modify its functions and its responses to the environment. Regulation is a complex operation that involves specialized proteins, the transcription factors. Transcription factors (TFs) can bind to DNA and activate the processes leading to the expression of genes into new proteins. Errors in this process may lead to diseases. In particular, some transcription factors have been associated with a lethal pathological state, commonly known as cancer, associated with uncontrolled cellular proliferation, invasiveness of healthy tissues and abnormal responses to stimuli. Understanding cancer-related regulatory programs is a difficult task, often involving several TFs interacting together and influencing each other's activity. This Thesis presents new computational methodologies to study gene regulation. In addition we present applications of our methods to the understanding of cancer-related regulatory programs. The understanding of transcriptional regulation is a major challenge. We address this difficult question combining computational approaches with large collections of heterogeneous experimental data. In detail, we design signal processing tools to recover transcription factors binding sites on the DNA from genome-wide surveys like chromatin immunoprecipitation assays on tiling arrays (ChIP-chip). We then use the localization about the binding of TFs to explain expression levels of regulated genes. In this way we identify a regulatory synergy between two TFs, the oncogene C-MYC and SP1. C-MYC and SP1 bind preferentially at promoters and when SP1 binds next to C-NIYC on the DNA, the nearby gene is strongly expressed. The association between the two TFs at promoters is reflected by the binding sites conservation across mammals, by the permissive underlying chromatin states 'it represents an important control mechanism involved in cellular proliferation, thereby involved in cancer. Secondly, we identify the characteristics of TF estrogen receptor alpha (hERa) target genes and we study the influence of hERa in regulating transcription. hERa, upon hormone estrogen signaling, binds to DNA to regulate transcription of its targets in concert with its co-factors. To overcome the scarce experimental data about the binding sites of other TFs that may interact with hERa, we conduct in silico analysis of the sequences underlying the ChIP sites using the collection of position weight matrices (PWMs) of hERa partners, TFs FOXA1 and SP1. We combine ChIP-chip and ChIP-paired-end-diTags (ChIP-pet) data about hERa binding on DNA with the sequence information to explain gene expression levels in a large collection of cancer tissue samples and also on studies about the response of cells to estrogen. We confirm that hERa binding sites are distributed anywhere on the genome. However, we distinguish between binding sites near promoters and binding sites along the transcripts. The first group shows weak binding of hERa and high occurrence of SP1 motifs, in particular near estrogen responsive genes. The second group shows strong binding of hERa and significant correlation between the number of binding sites along a gene and the strength of gene induction in presence of estrogen. Some binding sites of the second group also show presence of FOXA1, but the role of this TF still needs to be investigated. Different mechanisms have been proposed to explain hERa-mediated induction of gene expression. Our work supports the model of hERa activating gene expression from distal binding sites by interacting with promoter bound TFs, like SP1. hERa has been associated with survival rates of breast cancer patients, though explanatory models are still incomplete: this result is important to better understand how hERa can control gene expression. Thirdly, we address the difficult question of regulatory network inference. We tackle this problem analyzing time-series of biological measurements such as quantification of mRNA levels or protein concentrations. Our approach uses the well-established penalized linear regression models where we impose sparseness on the connectivity of the regulatory network. We extend this method enforcing the coherence of the regulatory dependencies: a TF must coherently behave as an activator, or a repressor on all its targets. This requirement is implemented as constraints on the signs of the regressed coefficients in the penalized linear regression model. Our approach is better at reconstructing meaningful biological networks than previous methods based on penalized regression. The method is tested on the DREAM2 challenge of reconstructing a five-genes/TFs regulatory network obtaining the best performance in the "undirected signed excitatory" category. Thus, these bioinformatics methods, which are reliable, interpretable and fast enough to cover large biological dataset, have enabled us to better understand gene regulation in humans.

Identity [R]Evolution: Multi-Disciplinary Perpectives

The identity [r]evolution is happening. Who are you, who am I in the information society? In recent years, the convergence of several factors - technological, political, economic - has accelerated a fundamental change in our networked world. On a technological level, information becomes easier to gather, to store, to exchange and to process. The belief that more information brings more security has been a strong political driver to promote information gathering since September 11. Profiling intends to transform information into knowledge in order to anticipate one's behaviour, or needs, or preferences. It can lead to categorizations according to some specific risk criteria, for example, or to direct and personalized marketing. As a consequence, new forms of identities appear. They are not necessarily related to our names anymore. They are based on information, on traces that we leave when we act or interact, when we go somewhere or just stay in one place, or even sometimes when we make a choice. They are related to the SIM cards of our mobile phones, to our credit card numbers, to the pseudonyms that we use on the Internet, to our email addresses, to the IP addresses of our computers, to our profiles... Like traditional identities, these new forms of identities can allow us to distinguish an individual within a group of people, or describe this person as belonging to a community or a category. How far have we moved through this process? The identity [r]evolution is already becoming part of our daily lives. People are eager to share information with their "friends" in social networks like Facebook, in chat rooms, or in Second Life. Customers take advantage of the numerous bonus cards that are made available. Video surveillance is becoming the rule. In several countries, traditional ID documents are being replaced by biometric passports with RFID technologies. This raises several privacy issues and might actually even result in changing the perception of the concept of privacy itself, in particular by the younger generation. In the information society, our (partial) identities become the illusory masks that we choose -or that we are assigned- to interplay and communicate with each other. Rights, obligations, responsibilities, even reputation are increasingly associated with these masks. On the one hand, these masks become the key to access restricted information and to use services. On the other hand, in case of a fraud or negative reputation, the owner of such a mask can be penalized: doors remain closed, access to services is denied. Hence the current preoccupying growth of impersonation, identity-theft and other identity-related crimes. Where is the path of the identity [r]evolution leading us? The booklet is giving a glance on possible scenarios in the field of identity.

MBIS: multivariate Bayesian image segmentation tool.

We present MBIS (Multivariate Bayesian Image Segmentation tool), a clustering tool based on the mixture of multivariate normal distributions model. MBIS supports multichannel bias field correction based on a B-spline model. A second methodological novelty is the inclusion of graph-cuts optimization for the stationary anisotropic hidden Markov random field model. Along with MBIS, we release an evaluation framework that contains three different experiments on multi-site data. We first validate the accuracy of segmentation and the estimated bias field for each channel. MBIS outperforms a widely used segmentation tool in a cross-comparison evaluation. The second experiment demonstrates the robustness of results on atlas-free segmentation of two image sets from scan-rescan protocols on 21 healthy subjects. Multivariate segmentation is more replicable than the monospectral counterpart on T1-weighted images. Finally, we provide a third experiment to illustrate how MBIS can be used in a large-scale study of tissue volume change with increasing age in 584 healthy subjects. This last result is meaningful as multivariate segmentation performs robustly without the need for prior knowledge.

Two Signatures For A New Blood-Based Test For Colorectal Cancer Screening

Background: Detection rates for adenoma and early colorectal cancer (CRC) are unsatisfactory due to low compliance towards invasive screening procedures such as colonoscopy. There is a large unmet screening need calling for an accurate, non-invasive and cost-effective test to screen for early neoplastic and pre-neoplastic lesions. Our goal is to identify effective biomarker combinations to develop a screening test aimed at detecting precancerous lesions and early CRC stages, based on a multigene assay performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC).Methods: A pilot study was conducted on 92 subjects. Colonoscopy revealed 21 CRC, 30 adenomas larger than 1 cm and 41 healthy controls. A panel of 103 biomarkers was selected by two approaches: a candidate gene approach based on literature review and whole transcriptome analysis of a subset of this cohort by Illumina TAG profiling. Blood samples were taken from each patient and PBMC purified. Total RNA was extracted and the 103 biomarkers were tested by multiplex RT-qPCR on the cohort. Different univariate and multivariate statistical methods were applied on the PCR data and 60 biomarkers, with significant p-value (< 0.01) for most of the methods, were selected.Results: The 60 biomarkers are involved in several different biological functions, such as cell adhesion, cell motility, cell signaling, cell proliferation, development and cancer. Two distinct molecular signatures derived from the biomarker combinations were established based on penalized logistic regression to separate patients without lesion from those with CRC or adenoma. These signatures were validated using bootstrapping method, leading to a separation of patients without lesion from those with CRC (Se 67%, Sp 93%, AUC 0.87) and from those with adenoma larger than 1cm (Se 63%, Sp 83%, AUC 0.77). In addition, the organ and disease specificity of these signatures was confirmed by means of patients with other cancer types and inflammatory bowel diseases.Conclusions: The two defined biomarker combinations effectively detect the presence of CRC and adenomas larger than 1 cm with high sensitivity and specificity. A prospective, multicentric, pivotal study is underway in order to validate these results in a larger cohort.

Hierarchical modeling gave plausible estimates of associations between metabolic syndrome and components of antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE: Hierarchical modeling has been proposed as a solution to the multiple exposure problem. We estimate associations between metabolic syndrome and different components of antiretroviral therapy using both conventional and hierarchical models. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We use discrete time survival analysis to estimate the association between metabolic syndrome and cumulative exposure to 16 antiretrovirals from four drug classes. We fit a hierarchical model where the drug class provides a prior model of the association between metabolic syndrome and exposure to each antiretroviral. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and eighteen patients were followed for a median of 27 months, with 242 cases of metabolic syndrome (20%) at a rate of 7.5 cases per 100 patient years. Metabolic syndrome was more likely to develop in patients exposed to stavudine, but was less likely to develop in those exposed to atazanavir. The estimate for exposure to atazanavir increased from hazard ratio of 0.06 per 6 months' use in the conventional model to 0.37 in the hierarchical model (or from 0.57 to 0.81 when using spline-based covariate adjustment). CONCLUSION: These results are consistent with trials that show the disadvantage of stavudine and advantage of atazanavir relative to other drugs in their respective classes. The hierarchical model gave more plausible results than the equivalent conventional model.

Discovery of a 29-gene panel in peripheral blood mononuclear cells for the detection of colorectal cancer and adenomas using high throughput real-time PCR.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related death in developed countries. Early detection of CRC leads to decreased CRC mortality. A blood-based CRC screening test is highly desirable due to limited invasiveness and high acceptance rate among patients compared to currently used fecal occult blood testing and colonoscopy. Here we describe the discovery and validation of a 29-gene panel in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) for the detection of CRC and adenomatous polyps (AP). Blood samples were prospectively collected from a multicenter, case-control clinical study. First, we profiled 93 samples with 667 candidate and 3 reference genes by high throughput real-time PCR (OpenArray system). After analysis, 160 genes were retained and tested again on 51 additional samples. Low expressed and unstable genes were discarded resulting in a final dataset of 144 samples profiled with 140 genes. To define which genes, alone or in combinations had the highest potential to discriminate AP and/or CRC from controls, data were analyzed by a combination of univariate and multivariate methods. A list of 29 potentially discriminant genes was compiled and evaluated for its predictive accuracy by penalized logistic regression and bootstrap. This method discriminated AP >1cm and CRC from controls with a sensitivity of 59% and 75%, respectively, with 91% specificity. The behavior of the 29-gene panel was validated with a LightCycler 480 real-time PCR platform, commonly adopted by clinical laboratories. In this work we identified a 29-gene panel expressed in PBMC that can be used for developing a novel minimally-invasive test for accurate detection of AP and CRC using a standard real-time PCR platform.