War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.

Sociogenomics of Cooperation and Conflict during Colony Founding in the Fire Ant Solenopsis invicta.

One of the fundamental questions in biology is how cooperative and altruistic behaviors evolved. The majority of studies seeking to identify the genes regulating these behaviors have been performed in systems where behavioral and physiological differences are relatively fixed, such as in the honey bee. During colony founding in the monogyne (one queen per colony) social form of the fire ant Solenopsis invicta, newly-mated queens may start new colonies either individually (haplometrosis) or in groups (pleometrosis). However, only one queen (the "winner") in pleometrotic associations survives and takes the lead of the young colony while the others (the "losers") are executed. Thus, colony founding in fire ants provides an excellent system in which to examine the genes underpinning cooperative behavior and how the social environment shapes the expression of these genes. We developed a new whole genome microarray platform for S. invicta to characterize the gene expression patterns associated with colony founding behavior. First, we compared haplometrotic queens, pleometrotic winners and pleometrotic losers. Second, we manipulated pleometrotic couples in order to switch or maintain the social ranks of the two cofoundresses. Haplometrotic and pleometrotic queens differed in the expression of genes involved in stress response, aging, immunity, reproduction and lipid biosynthesis. Smaller sets of genes were differentially expressed between winners and losers. In the second experiment, switching social rank had a much greater impact on gene expression patterns than the initial/final rank. Expression differences for several candidate genes involved in key biological processes were confirmed using qRT-PCR. Our findings indicate that, in S. invicta, social environment plays a major role in the determination of the patterns of gene expression, while the queen's physiological state is secondary. These results highlight the powerful influence of social environment on regulation of the genomic state, physiology and ultimately, social behavior of animals.

What makes for peaceful post-conflict elections?

Elections play a crucial role in post-conflict peace and democratization processes as, among other factors, they provide an answer to the question of who is to legitimately rule the country. However, because of the competitiveness arising from their central role in allocating power they can also represent windows of vulnerability where deeply rooted societal conflicts can come to the surface. This working paper focuses on two post-conflict elections (Sierra Leone 2007; Nepal 2008) which, despite perceived high risks, did not result in widespread violence or a return to armed conflict. The aim of these case studies is to identify the factors and measures that may have played an important role in contributing to this outcome. Each of the two case studies first outlines the risks associated with the elections and then analyzes the violence and conflict preventing factors. The paper shows that that the context greatly influences the type of measures that can be taken in such situations, but that there are also some similarities in the two cases studied. In particular, it appears that that the credibility of the elections, largely attributable to a good electoral administration, was an important factor in both Nepal and Sierra Leone. Furthermore, the inclusion of all key stakeholders in decisions regarding key electoral institutions helped to diffuse potential conflict. The study also shows that in both cases the international community played an important role by providing financial, logistical and technical support and by pressuring certain important actors to comply with the rules.

Non-nest mate discrimination and clonal colony structure in the parthenogenetic ant Cerapachys biroi

Understanding the interplay between cooperation and conflict in social groups is a major goal of biology. One important factor is genetic relatedness, and animal societies are usually composed of related but genetically different individuals, setting the stage for conflicts over reproductive allocation. Recently, however, it has been found that several ant species reproduce predominantly asexually. Although this can potentially give rise to clonal societies, in the few well-studied cases, colonies are often chimeric assemblies of different genotypes, due to worker drifting or colony fusion. In the ant Cerapachys biroi, queens are absent and all individuals reproduce via thelytokous parthenogenesis, making this species an ideal study system of asexual reproduction and its consequences for social dynamics. Here, we show that colonies in our study population on Okinawa, Japan, recognize and effectively discriminate against foreign workers, especially those from unrelated asexual lineages. In accord with this finding, colonies never contained more than a single asexual lineage and average pairwise genetic relatedness within colonies was extremely high (r = 0.99). This implies that the scope for social conflict in C. biroi is limited, with unusually high potential for cooperation and altruism.

Disagreements among cohabiting and married couples in 22 European countries

Background: Cross-national research suggests that married people have higher levels of well-being than cohabiting people. However, relationship quality has both positive and negative dimensions. Researchers have paid little attention to disagreements within cohabiting and married couples. Objective: This study aims to improve our understanding of the meaning of cohabitation by examining disagreements within marital and cohabiting relationships. We examine variations in couples' disagreements about housework, paid work and money by country and gender. Methods: The data come from the 2004 European Social Survey. We selected respondents living in a heterosexual couple relationship and aged between 18 and 45. In total, the study makes use of data from 22 European countries and 9,657 people. Given that our dependent variable was dichotomous, we estimated multilevel logit models, with (1) disagree and (0) never disagree. Results: We find that cohabitors had more disagreements about housework, the same disagreements about money, but fewer disagreements about paid work than did married people. These findings could not be explained by socio-economic or demographic measures, nor did we find gender or cross-country differences in the association between union status and conflict. Conclusions: Cohabiting couples have more disagreements about housework but fewer disagreements about paid work than married people. There are no gender or cross-country differences in these associations. The results provide further evidence that the meaning of cohabitation differs from that of marriage, and that this difference remains consistent across nations.

Electroencephalogram paroxysmal theta characterizes cataplexy in mice and children.

Astute control of brain activity states is critical for adaptive behaviours and survival. In mammals and birds, electroencephalographic recordings reveal alternating states of wakefulness, slow wave sleep and paradoxical sleep (or rapid eye movement sleep). This control is profoundly impaired in narcolepsy with cataplexy, a disease resulting from the loss of orexin/hypocretin neurotransmitter signalling in the brain. Narcolepsy with cataplexy is characterized by irresistible bouts of sleep during the day, sleep fragmentation during the night and episodes of cataplexy, a sudden loss of muscle tone while awake and experiencing emotions. The neural mechanisms underlying cataplexy are unknown, but commonly thought to involve those of rapid eye movement-sleep atonia, and cataplexy typically is considered as a rapid eye movement sleep disorder. Here we reassess cataplexy in hypocretin (Hcrt, also known as orexin) gene knockout mice. Using a novel video/electroencephalogram double-blind scoring method, we show that cataplexy is not a state per se, as believed previously, but a dynamic, multi-phased process involving a reproducible progression of states. A knockout-specific state and a stereotypical paroxysmal event were introduced to account for signals and electroencephalogram spectral characteristics not seen in wild-type littermates. Cataplexy almost invariably started with a brief phase of wake-like electroencephalogram, followed by a phase featuring high-amplitude irregular theta oscillations, defining an activity profile distinct from paradoxical sleep, referred to as cataplexy-associated state and in the course of which 1.5-2 s high-amplitude, highly regular, hypersynchronous paroxysmal theta bursts (∼7 Hz) occurred. In contrast to cataplexy onset, exit from cataplexy did not show a predictable sequence of activities. Altogether, these data contradict the hypothesis that cataplexy is a state similar to paradoxical sleep, even if long cataplexies may evolve into paradoxical sleep. Although not exclusive to overt cataplexy, cataplexy-associated state and hypersynchronous paroxysmal theta activities are highly enriched during cataplexy in hypocretin/orexin knockout mice. Their occurrence in an independent narcolepsy mouse model, the orexin/ataxin 3 transgenic mouse, undergoing loss of orexin neurons, was confirmed. Importantly, we document for the first time similar paroxysmal theta hypersynchronies (∼4 Hz) during cataplexy in narcoleptic children. Lastly, we show by deep recordings in mice that the cataplexy-associated state and hypersynchronous paroxysmal theta activities are independent of hippocampal theta and involve the frontal cortex. Cataplexy hypersynchronous paroxysmal theta bursts may represent medial prefrontal activity, associated in humans and rodents with reward-driven motor impulse, planning and conflict monitoring.

Editorial research and the publication process in biomedicine and health: Report from the Esteve Foundation Discussion Group, December 2012.

Despite the fact that there are more than twenty thousand biomedical journals in the world, research into the work of editors and publication process in biomedical and health care journals is rare. In December 2012, the Esteve Foundation, a non-profit scientific institution that fosters progress in pharmacotherapy by means of scientific communication and discussion organized a discussion group of 7 editors and/or experts in peer review biomedical publishing. They presented findings of past editorial research, discussed the lack of competitive funding schemes and specialized journals for dissemination of editorial research, and reported on the great diversity of misconduct and conflict of interest policies, as well as adherence to reporting guidelines. Furthermore, they reported on the reluctance of editors to investigate allegations of misconduct or increase the level of data sharing in health research. In the end, they concluded that if editors are to remain gatekeepers of scientific knowledge they should reaffirm their focus on the integrity of the scientific record and completeness of the data they publish. Additionally, more research should be undertaken to understand why many journals are not adhering to editorial standards, and what obstacles editors face when engaging in editorial research.

Sickness certification in primary care: a survey on views and practices among Swiss physicians.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Studies from several countries (Scandinavia, United Kingdom) report that general practitioners (GPs) experience problems in sickness certification. Our study explored views of Swiss GPs towards sickness certification, their practice and experience, professional skills and problematic interactions with patients. METHODS: We conducted an online survey among GPs throughout Switzerland, exploring behaviour of physicians, patients and employers with regard to sickness certification; GPs' views about sickness certification; required competences for certifying sickness absence, and approaches to advance their competence. We piloted the questionnaire and disseminated it through the networks of the five Swiss academic institutes for primary care. RESULTS: We received 507 valid responses (response rate 50%). Only 43/507 GPs experienced sickness certification as problematic per se, yet 155/507 experienced problems in sickness certification at least once a week. The 507 GPs identified estimating a long-term prognosis about work capacity (64%), handling conflicts with patients (54%), and determining the reduction of work capacity (42%) as problematic. Over 75% would welcome special training opportunities, e.g., on sickness certifications during residency (93%), in insurance medicine (81%), and conflict management (80%). CONCLUSION: Sickness certification as such does not present a major problem to Swiss GPs, which contrasts with the experience in Scandinavian countries and in the UK. Swiss GPs did identify specific tasks of sickness certification as problematic. Training opportunities on sick-leave certification and insurance medicine in general were welcomed.

Age-associated modulations of cerebral oscillatory patterns related to attention control.

Visual attention depends on bottom-up sensory activation and top-down attentional guidance. Although aging is known to affect sensory processing, its impact on the top-down control of attention remains a matter of debate. We investigated age-related modulations of brain oscillatory activity during visual attention using a variant of the attention network test (ANT) in 20 young and 28 elderly adults. We examined the EEG oscillatory responses to warning and target signals, and explored the correlates of temporal and spatial orienting as well as conflict resolution at target presentation. Time-frequency analysis was performed between 4 and 30Hz, and the relationship between behavioral and brain oscillatory responses was analyzed. Whereas temporal cueing and conflict had similar reaction time effects in both age groups, spatial cueing was more beneficial to older than younger subjects. In the absence of cue, posterior alpha activation was drastically reduced in older adults, pointing to an age-related decline in anticipatory attention. Following both cues and targets, older adults displayed pronounced motor-related activation in the low beta frequency range at the expense of attention-related posterior alpha activation prominent in younger adults. These findings support the recruitment of alternative motor-related circuits in the elderly, in line with the dedifferentiation hypothesis. Furthermore, older adults showed reduced midparietal alpha inhibition induced by temporal orienting as well as decreased posterior alpha activation associated with both spatial orienting and conflict resolution. Altogether, the results are consistent with an overall reduction of task-related alpha activity in the elderly, and provide functional evidence that younger and older adults engage distinct brain circuits at different oscillatory frequencies during attentional functions.