Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change.

Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

Phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology

Phenological events - defined points in the life cycle of a plant or animal - have been regarded as highly plastic traits, reflecting flexible responses to various environmental cues. The ability of a species to track, via shifts in phenological events, the abiotic environment through time might dictate its vulnerability to future climate change. Understanding the predictors and drivers of phenological change is therefore critical. Here, we evaluated evidence for phylogenetic conservatism - the tendency for closely related species to share similar ecological and biological attributes - in phenological traits across flowering plants. We aggregated published and unpublished data on timing of first flower and first leaf, encompassing 4000 species at 23 sites across the Northern Hemisphere. We reconstructed the phylogeny for the set of included species, first, using the software program Phylomatic, and second, from DNA data. We then quantified phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology within and across sites. We show that more closely related species tend to flower and leaf at similar times. By contrasting mean flowering times within and across sites, however, we illustrate that it is not the time of year that is conserved, but rather the phenological responses to a common set of abiotic cues. Our findings suggest that species cannot be treated as statistically independent when modelling phenological responses.Synthesis. Closely related species tend to resemble each other in the timing of their life-history events, a likely product of evolutionarily conserved responses to environmental cues. The search for the underlying drivers of phenology must therefore account for species' shared evolutionary histories.

ZNRD1 (zinc ribbon domain-containing 1) is a host cellular factor that influences HIV-1 replication and disease progression.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) takes advantage of multiple host proteins to support its own replication. The gene ZNRD1 (zinc ribbon domain-containing 1) has been identified as encoding a potential host factor that influenced disease progression in HIV-positive individuals in a genomewide association study and also significantly affected HIV replication in a large-scale in vitro short interfering RNA (siRNA) screen. Genes and polymorphisms identified by large-scale analysis need to be followed up by means of functional assays and resequencing efforts to more precisely map causal genes. METHODS: Genotyping and ZNRD1 gene resequencing for 208 HIV-positive subjects (119 who experienced long-term nonprogression [LTNP] and 89 who experienced normal disease progression) was done by either TaqMan genotyping assays or direct sequencing. Genetic association analysis was performed with the SNPassoc package and Haploview software. siRNA and short hairpin RNA (shRNA) specifically targeting ZNRD1 were used to transiently or stably down-regulate ZNRD1 expression in both lymphoid and nonlymphoid cells. Cells were infected with X4 and R5 HIV strains, and efficiency of infection was assessed by reporter gene assay or p24 assay. RESULTS: Genetic association analysis found a strong statistically significant correlation with the LTNP phenotype (single-nucleotide polymorphism rs1048412; [Formula: see text]), independently of HLA-A10 influence. siRNA-based functional analysis showed that ZNRD1 down-regulation by siRNA or shRNA impaired HIV-1 replication at the transcription level in both lymphoid and nonlymphoid cells. CONCLUSION: Genetic association analysis unequivocally identified ZNRD1 as an independent marker of LTNP to AIDS. Moreover, in vitro experiments pointed to viral transcription as the inhibited step. Thus, our data strongly suggest that ZNRD1 is a host cellular factor that influences HIV-1 replication and disease progression in HIV-positive individuals.