Detection of Optimal Models in Parameter Space with Support Vector Machines

The paper proposes an approach aimed at detecting optimal model parameter combinations to achieve the most representative description of uncertainty in the model performance. A classification problem is posed to find the regions of good fitting models according to the values of a cost function. Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification in the parameter space is applied to decide if a forward model simulation is to be computed for a particular generated model. SVM is particularly designed to tackle classification problems in high-dimensional space in a non-parametric and non-linear way. SVM decision boundaries determine the regions that are subject to the largest uncertainty in the cost function classification, and, therefore, provide guidelines for further iterative exploration of the model space. The proposed approach is illustrated by a synthetic example of fluid flow through porous media, which features highly variable response due to the parameter values' combination.

Monitoring network optimisation for spatial data classification using support vector machines

The paper presents a novel method for monitoring network optimisation, based on a recent machine learning technique known as support vector machine. It is problem-oriented in the sense that it directly answers the question of whether the advised spatial location is important for the classification model. The method can be used to increase the accuracy of classification models by taking a small number of additional measurements. Traditionally, network optimisation is performed by means of the analysis of the kriging variances. The comparison of the method with the traditional approach is presented on a real case study with climate data.

Development and current use of parenteral nutrition in critical care - an opinion paper.

Critically ill patients depend on artificial nutrition for the maintenance of their metabolic functions and lean body mass, as well as for limiting underfeeding-related complications. Current guidelines recommend enteral nutrition (EN), possibly within the first 48 hours, as the best way to provide the nutrients and prevent infections. EN may be difficult to realize or may be contraindicated in some patients, such as those presenting anatomic intestinal continuity problems or splanchnic ischemia. A series of contradictory trials regarding the best route and timing for feeding have left the medical community with great uncertainty regarding the place of parenteral nutrition (PN) in critically ill patients. Many of the deleterious effects attributed to PN result from inadequate indications, or from overfeeding. The latter is due firstly to the easier delivery of nutrients by PN compared with EN increasing the risk of overfeeding, and secondly to the use of approximate energy targets, generally based on predictive equations: these equations are static and inaccurate in about 70% of patients. Such high uncertainty about requirements compromises attempts at conducting nutrition trials without indirect calorimetry support because the results cannot be trusted; indeed, both underfeeding and overfeeding are equally deleterious. An individualized therapy is required. A pragmatic approach to feeding is proposed: at first to attempt EN whenever and as early as possible, then to use indirect calorimetry if available, and to monitor delivery and response to feeding, and finally to consider the option of combining EN with PN in case of insufficient EN from day 4 onwards.

Paper 2: EUROCAT public health indicators for congenital anomalies in Europe.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this article is to present the specific public health indicators recently developed by EUROCAT that aim to summarize important aspects of the public health impact of congenital anomalies in a few quantitative measures. METHODS: The six indicators are: (1) congenital anomaly perinatal mortality, (2) congenital anomaly prenatal diagnosis prevalence, (3) congenital anomaly termination of pregnancy, (4) Down syndrome livebirth prevalence, (5) congenital anomaly pediatric surgery, and (6) neural tube defects (NTD) total prevalence. Data presented for this report pertained to all cases (livebirths, fetal deaths, or stillbirths after 20 weeks of gestation and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly [TOPFA]) of congenital anomaly from 27 full member registries of EUROCAT that could provide data for at least 3 years during the period 2004 to 2008. Prevalence of anomalies, prenatal diagnosis, TOPFA, pediatric surgery, and perinatal mortality were calculated per 1000 births. RESULTS: The overall perinatal mortality was approximately 1.0 per 1000 births for EUROCAT registries with almost half due to fetal and the other half due to first week deaths. There were wide variations in perinatal mortality across the registries with the highest rates observed in Dublin and Malta, registries in countries where TOPFA are illegal, and in Ukraine. The overall perinatal mortality across EUROCAT registries slightly decreased between 2004 and 2008 due to a decrease in first week deaths. The prevalence of TOPFA was fairly stable at about 4 per 1000 births. There were variations in livebirth prevalence of cases typically requiring surgery across the registries; however, for most registries this prevalence was between 3 and 5 per 1000 births. Prevalence of NTD decreased by about 10% from 1.05 in 2004 to 0.94 per 1000 in 2008. CONCLUSION: It is hoped that by publishing the data on EUROCAT indicators, the public health importance of congenital anomalies can be clearly summarized to policy makers, the need for accurate data from registries emphasized, the need for primary prevention and treatment services highlighted, and the impact of current services measured.

Cutting edge: NKT cell development is selectively impaired in Fyn- deficient mice.

Most NK1.1+ T (NKT) cells express a biased TCRalphabeta repertoire that is positively selected by the monomorphic MHC class I-like molecule CD1d. The development of CD1d-dependent NKT cells is thymus dependent but, in contrast to conventional T cells, requires positive selection by cells of hemopoietic origin. Here, we show that the Src protein tyrosine kinase Fyn is required for development of CD1d-dependent NKT cells but not for the development of conventional T cells. In contrast, another Src kinase, Lck, is required for the development of both NKT and T cells. Impaired NKT cell development in Fyn-deficient mice cannot be rescued by transgenic expression of CD8, which is believed to increase the avidity of CD1d recognition by NKT cells. Taken together, our data reveal a selective and nonredundant role for Fyn in NKT cell development.

Cutting edge: apoptosis of superantigen-activated T cells occurs preferentially after a discrete number of cell divisions in vivo.

Staphylococcal enterotoxins are bacterial products that display superantigen activity in vitro as well as in vivo. For instance, staphylococcal enterotoxin B (SEB) polyclonally activates T cells that bear the Vbeta8 gene segment of the TCR. SEB-activated T cells undergo a burst of proliferation that is followed by apoptosis. Using an in vivo adaptation of a fluorescent cell division monitoring technique, we show here that SEB-activated T cells divide asynchronously, and that apoptosis of superantigen-activated T cells is preferentially restricted to cells which have undergone a discrete number of cell divisions. Collectively, our data suggest that superantigen-activated T cells are programmed to undergo a fixed number of cell divisions before undergoing apoptosis. A delayed death program may provide a mechanistic compromise between effector functions and homeostasis of activated T cells.

EAACI Position Paper: prevention of work-related respiratory allergies among pre-apprentices or apprentices and young workers.

ABSTRACT: Apprenticeship is a period of increased risk of developing work-related respiratory allergic diseases. There is a need for documents to provide appropriate professional advice to young adults aiming to reduce unsuitable job choices and prevent impairment from their careers. The present document is the result of a consensus reached by a panel of experts from European and non-European countries addressed to allergologists, pneumologists, occupational physicians, primary care physicians, and other specialists interested in this field, which aims to reduce work-related respiratory allergies (rhinoconjunctivitis and asthma) among allergic or nonallergic apprentices and other young adults entering the workforce. The main objective of the document is to issue consensus suggestions for good clinical practice based on existing scientific evidence and the expertise of a panel of physicians.

Research needs in allergy: an EAACI position paper, in collaboration with EFA.

In less than half a century, allergy, originally perceived as a rare disease, has become a major public health threat, today affecting the lives of more than 60 million people in Europe, and probably close to one billion worldwide, thereby heavily impacting the budgets of public health systems. More disturbingly, its prevalence and impact are on the rise, a development that has been associated with environmental and lifestyle changes accompanying the continuous process of urbanization and globalization. Therefore, there is an urgent need to prioritize and concert research efforts in the field of allergy, in order to achieve sustainable results on prevention, diagnosis and treatment of this most prevalent chronic disease of the 21st century.The European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (EAACI) is the leading professional organization in the field of allergy, promoting excellence in clinical care, education, training and basic and translational research, all with the ultimate goal of improving the health of allergic patients. The European Federation of Allergy and Airways Diseases Patients' Associations (EFA) is a non-profit network of allergy, asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disorder (COPD) patients' organizations. In support of their missions, the present EAACI Position Paper, in collaboration with EFA, highlights the most important research needs in the field of allergy to serve as key recommendations for future research funding at the national and European levels.Although allergies may involve almost every organ of the body and an array of diverse external factors act as triggers, there are several common themes that need to be prioritized in research efforts. As in many other chronic diseases, effective prevention, curative treatment and accurate, rapid diagnosis represent major unmet needs. Detailed phenotyping/endotyping stands out as widely required in order to arrange or re-categorize clinical syndromes into more coherent, uniform and treatment-responsive groups. Research efforts to unveil the basic pathophysiologic pathways and mechanisms, thus leading to the comprehension and resolution of the pathophysiologic complexity of allergies will allow for the design of novel patient-oriented diagnostic and treatment protocols. Several allergic diseases require well-controlled epidemiological description and surveillance, using disease registries, pharmacoeconomic evaluation, as well as large biobanks. Additionally, there is a need for extensive studies to bring promising new biotechnological innovations, such as biological agents, vaccines of modified allergen molecules and engineered components for allergy diagnosis, closer to clinical practice. Finally, particular attention should be paid to the difficult-to-manage, precarious and costly severe disease forms and/or exacerbations. Nonetheless, currently arising treatments, mainly in the fields of immunotherapy and biologicals, hold great promise for targeted and causal management of allergic conditions. Active involvement of all stakeholders, including Patient Organizations and policy makers are necessary to achieve the aims emphasized herein.

Structured output SVM for remote sensing image classification

In the recent years, kernel methods have revealed very powerful tools in many application domains in general and in remote sensing image classification in particular. The special characteristics of remote sensing images (high dimension, few labeled samples and different noise sources) are efficiently dealt with kernel machines. In this paper, we propose the use of structured output learning to improve remote sensing image classification based on kernels. Structured output learning is concerned with the design of machine learning algorithms that not only implement input-output mapping, but also take into account the relations between output labels, thus generalizing unstructured kernel methods. We analyze the framework and introduce it to the remote sensing community. Output similarity is here encoded into SVM classifiers by modifying the model loss function and the kernel function either independently or jointly. Experiments on a very high resolution (VHR) image classification problem shows promising results and opens a wide field of research with structured output kernel methods.

Frequency-dependent sexual selection with respect to offspring fitness returns is consistent with predictions from rock-paper-scissors dynamics in the European common lizard

Genetic polymorphism can be maintained over time by negative frequency-dependent (FD) selection induced by Rock-paper-scissors (RPS) social systems. RPS games produce cyclic dynamics, and have been suggested to exist in lizards, insects, isopods, plants, and bacteria. Sexual selection is predicted to accentuate the survival of the future progeny during negative FD survival selection. More specifically, females are predicted to select mates that produce progeny genotypes that exhibit highest survival during survival selection imposed by adult males. However, no empirical evidence demonstrates the existence of FD sexual selection with respect to fitness payoffs of genetic polymorphisms. Here we tested this prediction using the common lizard Zootoca vivipara, a species with three male color morphs (orange, white, yellow) that exhibit morph frequency cycles. In a first step we tested the congruence of the morph frequency change with the predicted change in three independent populations, differing in male color morph frequency and state of the FD morph cycle. Thereafter we ran standardized sexual selection assays in which we excluded alternative mechanisms that potentially induce negative FD selection, and we quantified inter-sexual behavior. The patterns of sexual selection and the observed behavior were in line with context-dependent female mate choice and male behavior played a minor role. Moreover, the strength of the sexual selection was within the magnitude of selection required to produce the observed 3-4-year and 6-8 year morph frequency cycles at low and high altitudes, respectively. In summary, the study provides the first experimental evidence that underpins the crucial assumption of the RPS games suggested to exist in lizards, insects, isopods, and plants; namely, that sexual selection produces negative-FD selection. This indicates that sexual selection, in our study exert by females, might be a crucial driver of the maintenance of genetic polymorphisms.

Paper money and national distress: William Huskisson and the early theories of credit, speculation and crises

This paper examines the explanation of commercial crises offered by William Huskisson in 1810 in the wake of the debate on the Bullion Report. Huskisson argued that the suspension of convertibility made it possible to extend issues of paper currency beyond its proper limits. Such an expansion, being in the interest of all parties concerned, would actually take place and stimulate excessive speculations, which would eventually prove unsustainable and bring generalized ruin and distress. Although some elements of this explanations were not new (having been anticipated by writers sucha as James Currie in 1793, William Roscoe in 1793, William Anderson in 1797 and an anonymous in 1796), Huskisson's explanation is more systematic and better organized, and his emphasis on the endogenous character of the crisis and on the instability of the dynamics of trade and credit makes it an interesting foreshadower of the theories of crises that were advanced half a century later.

Paper 3: EUROCAT data quality indicators for population-based registries of congenital anomalies.

The European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) network of population-based congenital anomaly registries is an important source of epidemiologic information on congenital anomalies in Europe covering live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestation, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. EUROCAT's policy is to strive for high-quality data, while ensuring consistency and transparency across all member registries. A set of 30 data quality indicators (DQIs) was developed to assess five key elements of data quality: completeness of case ascertainment, accuracy of diagnosis, completeness of information on EUROCAT variables, timeliness of data transmission, and availability of population denominator information. This article describes each of the individual DQIs and presents the output for each registry as well as the EUROCAT (unweighted) average, for 29 full member registries for 2004-2008. This information is also available on the EUROCAT website for previous years. The EUROCAT DQIs allow registries to evaluate their performance in relation to other registries and allows appropriate interpretations to be made of the data collected. The DQIs provide direction for improving data collection and ascertainment, and they allow annual assessment for monitoring continuous improvement. The DQI are constantly reviewed and refined to best document registry procedures and processes regarding data collection, to ensure appropriateness of DQI, and to ensure transparency so that the data collected can make a substantial and useful contribution to epidemiologic research on congenital anomalies.

Public sector rationing and private sector selection [paper accepted and forthcoming in Journal of Public Economic Theory]

We study the interaction between nonprice public rationing and prices in the private market. Under a limited budget, the public supplier uses a rationing policy. A private firm may supply the good to those consumers who are rationed by the public system. Consumers have different amounts of wealth, and costs of providing the good to them vary. We consider two regimes. First, the public supplier observes consumers' wealth information; second, the public supplier observes both wealth and cost information. The public supplier chooses a rationing policy, and, simultaneously, the private firm, observing only cost but not wealth information, chooses a pricing policy. In the first regime, there is a continuum of equilibria. The Pareto dominant equilibrium is a means-test equilibrium: poor consumers are supplied while rich consumers are rationed. Prices in the private market increase with the budget. In the second regime, there is a unique equilibrium. This exhibits a cost-effectiveness rationing rule; consumers are supplied if and only if their costbenefit ratios are low. Prices in the private market do not change with the budget. Equilibrium consumer utility is higher in the cost-effectiveness equilibrium than the means-test equilibrium [Authors]

Cutting edge: influence of the TCR Vbeta domain on the selection of semi-invariant NKT cells by endogenous ligands.

Invariant Valpha14 (Valpha14i) NKT cells are a murine CD1d-dependent regulatory T cell subset characterized by a Valpha14-Jalpha18 rearrangement and expression of mostly Vbeta8.2 and Vbeta7. Whereas the TCR Vbeta domain influences the binding avidity of the Valpha14i TCR for CD1d-alpha-galactosylceramide complexes, with Vbeta8.2 conferring higher avidity binding than Vbeta7, a possible impact of the TCR Vbeta domain on Valpha14i NKT cell selection by endogenous ligands has not been studied. In this study, we show that thymic selection of Vbeta7(+), but not Vbeta8.2(+), Valpha14i NKT cells is favored in situations where endogenous ligand concentration or TCRalpha-chain avidity are suboptimal. Furthermore, thymic Vbeta7(+) Valpha14i NKT cells were preferentially selected in vitro in response to CD1d-dependent presentation of endogenous ligands or exogenously added self ligand isoglobotrihexosylceramide. Collectively, our data demonstrate that the TCR Vbeta domain influences the selection of Valpha14i NKT cells by endogenous ligands, presumably because Vbeta7 confers higher avidity binding.