Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Factors promoting the exposure to bioaerosols among crop workers

Introduction. Agricultural workers are among the professional groups most at risk of developing acute or chronic respiratory problems. Despite this fact, the etiology of these occupational diseases is poorly known, even in important sectors of agriculture such as the crops sector. Cereals can be colonized by a large number of fungal species throughout the plants' growth, but also during grain storage. Some of these fungi deliver toxins that can have a serious impact on human health when they are ingested via wheat products. Although International and European legislation on contaminants in food, including mycotoxins, include measures to ensure protection of public health by setting down the maximum levels for certain contaminants, the risks associated with the inhalation of such molecules during grain handling remains poorly documented. Goal of study. This project's objective was to characterize worker exposure to pathogenic, irritative or allergenic microorganisms and to identify the abiotic or biotic factors that reduce the growth of these microorganisms in crops. Indeed, the proliferation of microorganisms on wheat is dependent on temperature, rainfall and human disturbance (e.g. usage of tillage, addition of fungicides). A change in the concentration of these microorganisms in the substrate will directly result in a change in the concentration of aerosolized particles of the same microorganisms. Therefore, the exposure of worker to bioaérosols will also change. The Vaud region of Switzerland is a perfect region for conduct such a project as weather conditions vary and agricultural land management programs are divers at a small geographic scale. Methods. Bioaerosols and wheat dust have been sampled during wheat harvesting of summer 2010 at 100 sites uniformly distributed in the Vaud region that are representative of the different agriculture practices. Personal exposure has been evaluated for different wheat related activities: harvesting, grain unload, baling straw, the cleaning of harvesters and silos. Aerosols have been sampled at a rate of 2L/min between 15 min to 4 hours (t) on a 5m PVC filter for estimating the total dust inhaled, on gelatine filter for the identification and quantification of molds, and on a 0.45um polycarbonate filter for endotoxin quantification. Altitude, temperature and annual average rainfall were considered for each site. The physical and chemical characteristics of soils were determined using the methods in effect at Sol Council (Nyon). Total dust has been quantified following NIOSH 0500 method. Reactive endotoxine activity has been determined with Limulus Amebocyte Lysate Assay. All molds have been identified by the pyrosequencing of ITS2 amplicons generated from bioaerosol or wheat dust genomic DNA. Results & Conclusions. Our results confirm the previous quantitative data on the worker exposure to wheat dust. In addition, they show that crop workers are systematically exposed to complex mixtures of allergens, irritants or cytotoxic components. The novelty of our study is the systematic detection of molds such as Fusarium - that is a mycotoxins producer - in the bioaerosols. The results are interpreted by taking in account the agriculture practice, the Phosphorus : Carbon : Nitrogen ratio of the soil, the altitude and the average of rainy days per year.

Neurotoxicity of dibutyltin in aggregating brain cell cultures.

Dibutyltin (DBT) compounds are used primarily as stabilizers for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plastics. Small quantities can be released from PVC containers into stored liquids. The neurotoxicological potential of DBT was tested in aggregating brain cell cultures after a 10-day treatment with concentrations ranging from 10(-10) to 10(-6)m, either during an early developmental period, or during a phase of advanced maturation. Changes in protein content, DNA labelling and cell type-specific enzyme activities were measured as end points. DBT caused general cytotoxicity at 10(-6)m in both immature and differentiated cultures. At 10(-7)m, it affected the myelin content and the cholinergic neurons in both states of maturation, while GABAergic neurons remained unchanged. Astrocyte and oligodendrocyte markers were diminished at 10(-7)m of DBT exclusively in immature cultures. DBT uptake by undifferentiated and differentiated cells was similar at this concentration. Whereas trimethyltin (TMT) is known to induce gliosis and triethyltin (TET) to cause demyelination and affect GABAergic neurons, DBT appeared to be more toxic than TMT, and to present a distinct toxicological pattern.

"Pied de Charcot": un diagnostic à ne pas manquer [Charcot osteoarthropathy: don't miss it!].

Charcot neuropathic osteoarthropathy (CNO) is a destructive process affecting the bone and joint structure of diabetic patients and resulting from peripheral neuropathy. It is a limb threatening condition resulting in dramatic deformities associated with severe morbi-mortality. The diagnosis is mostly made by the observation of inflammatory signs and higlight the importance of prompt foot evaluation. Imaging studies may help confirm the diagnosis and the severity of the condition but lack of specificity. The goal of the treatment is to maintain or achieve structural stability of the foot and ankle to prevent further deformity and plantar dislocation. The scientific evidences aren't strong enough to recommend bisphosphonates or acute surgical treatment. Surgery is unanimusly recommended to prevent secondary ulceration.

Occupational exposure to diisononyl phthalate (DiNP) in polyvinyl chloride processing operations

PURPOSE: Diisononyl phthalate (DiNP) is primarily used as a plasticizer in polyvinyl chloride (PVC) materials. While information is available on general population exposure to DiNP, occupational exposure data are lacking. We present DiNP metabolite urinary concentrations in PVC processing workers, estimate DiNP daily intake for these workers, and compare worker estimates to other populations. METHODS: We assessed DiNP exposure in participants from two companies that manufactured PVC materials, a PVC film manufacturer (n = 25) and a PVC custom compounder (n = 12). A mid-shift and end-shift urine sample was collected from each participant and analyzed for the DiNP metabolite mono(carboxy-isooctyl) phthalate (MCiOP). Mixed models were used to assess the effect on MCiOP concentrations of a worker being assigned to (1) a task using DiNP and (2) a shift where DiNP was used. A simple pharmacokinetic model was used to estimate DiNP daily intake from the MCiOP concentrations. RESULTS: Creatinine-adjusted MCiOP urinary concentrations ranged from 0.42-80 μg/g in PVC film and from 1.11-13.4 μg/g in PVC compounding. PVC film participants who worked on a task using DiNP (n = 7) had the highest MCiOP geometric mean (GM) end-shift concentration (25.2 μg/g), followed by participants who worked on a shift where DiNP was used (n = 11) (17.7 μg/g) as compared to participants with no task (2.92 μg/g) or shift (2.08 μg/g) exposure to DiNP. The GM end-shift MCiOP concentration in PVC compounding participants (4.80 μg/g) was comparable to PVC film participants with no task or shift exposure to DiNP. Because no PVC compounding participants were assigned to tasks using DINP on the day sampled, DiNP exposure in this company may be underestimated. The highest DiNP intake estimate was 26 μg/kg/day. CONCLUSION: Occupational exposure to DiNP associated with PVC film manufacturing tasks were substantially higher (sixfold to tenfold) than adult general population exposures; however, all daily intake estimates were less than 25% of current United States or European acceptable or tolerable daily intake estimates. Further characterization of DiNP occupational exposures in other industries is recommended.