Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

The pseudo-high-risk prevention strategy

Key Messages: A fundamental failure of high-risk prevention strategies is their inability to prevent disease in the large part of the population at a relatively small average risk and from which most cases of diseases originate. The development of individual predictive medicine and the widening of high-risk categories for numerous (chronic) conditions lead to the application of pseudo-high-risk prevention strategies. Widening the criteria justifying individual preventive interventions and the related pseudo-high-risk strategies lead to treating, individually, ever healthier and larger strata of the population. The pseudo-high-risk prevention strategies raise similar problems compared with high-risk strategies, however on a larger scale and without any of the benefit of population-based strategies. Some 30 years ago, the strengths and weaknesses of population-based and high-risk prevention strategies were brilliantly delineated by Geoffrey Rose in several seminal publications (Table 1).1,2 His work had major implications not only for epidemiology and public health but also for clinical medicine. In particular, Rose demonstrated the fundamental failure of high-risk prevention strategies, that is, by missing a large number of preventable cases.

Influence of seasons and sampling strategy on assessment of bioaerosols in sewage treatment plants in Switzerland

An assessment of sewage workers' exposure to airborne cultivable bacteria, fungi and inhaled endotoxins was performed at 11 sewage treatment plants. We sampled the enclosed and unenclosed treatment areas in each plant and evaluated the influence of seasons (summer and winter) on bioaerosol levels. We also measured personal exposure to endotoxins of workers during special operation where a higher risk of bioaerosol inhalation was assumed. Results show that only fungi are present in significantly higher concentrations in summer than in winter (2331 +/- 858 versus 329 +/- 95 CFU m(-3)). We also found that there are significantly more bacteria in the enclosed area, near the particle grids for incoming water, than in the unenclosed area near the aeration basins (9455 +/- 2661 versus 2435 +/- 985 CFU m(-3) in summer and 11 081 +/- 2299 versus 2002 +/- 839 CFU m(-3) in winter). All bioaerosols were frequently above the recommended values of occupational exposure. Workers carrying out special tasks such as cleaning tanks were exposed to very high levels of endotoxins (up to 500 EU m(-3)) compared to routine work. The species composition and concentration of airborne Gram-negative bacteria were also studied. A broad spectrum of different species within the Pseudomonadaceae and the Enterobacteriaceae families were predominant in nearly all plants investigated. [Authors]

Renal transplantation following aorto-iliac reconstruction is a safe a strategy

Introduction: Renal transplantation is considered the treatment of choice for end-stage renal disease. However, the association of occlusive aorto-iliac disease and chronic renal failure is frequent and aorto-iliac reconstruction may be necessary prior to renal transplantation. This retrospective study reviews the results of this operative strategy.Material and Methods: Between January 2001 and June 2010, 309 patients underwent renal transplantation at our institution and 8 patients had prior aorto-iliac reconstruction using prosthetic material. There were 6 men and 2 women with a median age of 62 years (range 51-70). Five aorto-bifemoral and 2 aorto-bi-iliac bypasses were performed for stage II (n=5), stage IV (n=1) and aortic aneurysm (n=1). In one patient, iliac kissing stents and an ilio-femoral bypass were implanted. 4 cadaveric and 4 living donor renal transplantations were performed with an interval of 2 months to 10 years after revascularization.The results were analysed with respect of graft and patients survival. Differences between groups were tested by the log rank method.Results: No complications and no death occurred in the post-operative period. All bypasses remained patent during follow-up. The median time of post transplantation follow-up was 46 months for all patients and 27 months for patients with prior revascularization. In the revascularized group and control group, the graft and patient survival at 1 year were respectively 100%/96%, 100%/99% and at 5 years 86%/86%, 86%/94%, without significant differences between both groups.Discussion: Our results suggest that renal transplantation following prior aorto-iliac revascularisation with prosthetic material is safe and effective. Patients with end-stage renal disease and concomitant aorto-iliac disease should therefore be considered for renal transplantation. However, caution in the interpretation of the results is indicated due to the small sample size of our study.

Which screening strategy using BMD measurements would be most cost effective for hip fracture prevention in elderly women? A decision analysis based on a Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are responsible for excessive mortality, decreasing the 5-year survival rate by about 20%. From an economic perspective, they represent a major source of expense, with direct costs in hospitalization, rehabilitation, and institutionalization. The incidence rate sharply increases after the age of 70, but it can be reduced in women aged 70-80 years by therapeutic interventions. Recent analyses suggest that the most efficient strategy is to implement such interventions in women at the age of 70 years. As several guidelines recommend bone mineral density (BMD) screening of postmenopausal women with clinical risk factors, our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies applied to elderly women aged 70 years and older. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using decision-tree analysis and a Markov model. Two alternative strategies, one measuring BMD of all women, and one measuring BMD only of those having at least one risk factor, were compared with the reference strategy "no screening". Cost-effectiveness ratios were measured as cost per year gained without hip fracture. Most probabilities were based on data observed in EPIDOS, SEMOF and OFELY cohorts. RESULTS: In this model, which is mostly based on observed data, the strategy "screen all" was more cost effective than "screen women at risk." For one woman screened at the age of 70 and followed for 10 years, the incremental (additional) cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies compared with the reference was 4,235 euros and 8,290 euros, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this model, under the assumptions described in the paper, suggest that in women aged 70-80 years, screening all women with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) would be more effective than no screening or screening only women with at least one risk factor. Cost-effectiveness studies based on decision-analysis trees maybe useful tools for helping decision makers, and further models based on different assumptions should be performed to improve the level of evidence on cost-effectiveness ratios of the usual screening strategies for osteoporosis.

A musculoskeletal shoulder model based on pseudo-inverse and null-space optimization.

The goal of the present work was assess the feasibility of using a pseudo-inverse and null-space optimization approach in the modeling of the shoulder biomechanics. The method was applied to a simplified musculoskeletal shoulder model. The mechanical system consisted in the arm, and the external forces were the arm weight, 6 scapulo-humeral muscles and the reaction at the glenohumeral joint, which was considered as a spherical joint. The muscle wrapping was considered around the humeral head assumed spherical. The dynamical equations were solved in a Lagrangian approach. The mathematical redundancy of the mechanical system was solved in two steps: a pseudo-inverse optimization to minimize the square of the muscle stress and a null-space optimization to restrict the muscle force to physiological limits. Several movements were simulated. The mathematical and numerical aspects of the constrained redundancy problem were efficiently solved by the proposed method. The prediction of muscle moment arms was consistent with cadaveric measurements and the joint reaction force was consistent with in vivo measurements. This preliminary work demonstrated that the developed algorithm has a great potential for more complex musculoskeletal modeling of the shoulder joint. In particular it could be further applied to a non-spherical joint model, allowing for the natural translation of the humeral head in the glenoid fossa.

Ventricular arrhythmia in coronary artery disease: limits of a risk stratification strategy based on the ejection fraction alone and impact of infarct localization.

AIMS: Estimates of the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in patients with life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias related to coronary artery disease (CAD) have rarely been reported despite it has become the basis for determining patient's eligibility for prophylactic defibrillator. We aimed to determine the extent and distribution of reduced LVEF in patients with sustained ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation. METHODS AND RESULTS: 252 patients admitted for ventricular arrhythmia related to CAD were included: 149 had acute myocardial infarction (MI) (Group I, 59%), 54 had significant chronic obstructive CAD suggestive of an ischaemic arrhythmic trigger (Group II, 21%) and 49 patients had an old MI without residual ischaemia (Group III, 19%). 34% of the patients with scar-related arrhythmias had an LVEF > or =40%. Based on pre-event LVEF evaluation, it can be estimated that less than one quarter of the whole study population had a known chronic MI with severely reduced LVEF. In Group III, the proportion of inferior MI was significantly higher than anterior MI (81 vs. 19%; absolute difference, -62; 95% confidence interval, -45 to -79; P < or = 0.0001), though median LVEF was higher in inferior MI (0.37 +/- 10 vs. 0.29 +/- 10; P = 0.0499). CONCLUSION: Patients included in defibrillator trials represent only a minority of the patients at risk of sudden cardiac death. By applying the current risk stratification strategy based on LVEF, more than one third of the patients with old MI would not have qualified for a prophylactic defibrillator. Our study also suggests that inferior scars may be more prone to ventricular arrhythmia compared to anterior scars.

The ghost of past species occurrence: improving species distribution models for presence-only data

1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.

Peroxisomal polyhydroxyalkanoate biosynthesis is a promising strategy for bioplastic production in high biomass crops.

Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs) are bacterial carbon storage polymers with diverse plastic-like properties. PHA biosynthesis in transgenic plants is being developed as a way to reduce the cost and increase the sustainability of industrial PHA production. The homopolymer polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) is the simplest form of these biodegradable polyesters. Plant peroxisomes contain the substrate molecules and necessary reducing power for PHB biosynthesis, but peroxisomal PHB production has not been explored in whole soil-grown transgenic plants to date. We generated transgenic sugarcane (Saccharum sp.) with the three-enzyme Ralstonia eutropha PHA biosynthetic pathway targeted to peroxisomes. We also introduced the pathway into Arabidopsis thaliana, as a model system for studying and manipulating peroxisomal PHB production. PHB, at levels up to 1.6%-1.8% dry weight, accumulated in sugarcane leaves and A. thaliana seedlings, respectively. In sugarcane, PHB accumulated throughout most leaf cell types in both peroxisomes and vacuoles. A small percentage of total polymer was also identified as the copolymer poly (3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) in both plant species. No obvious deleterious effect was observed on plant growth because of peroxisomal PHA biosynthesis at these levels. This study highlights how using peroxisomal metabolism for PHA biosynthesis could significantly contribute to reaching commercial production levels of PHAs in crop plants.

Treatment of advanced soft-tissue sarcomas using a combined strategy of high-dose ifosfamide, high-dose doxorubicin and salvage therapies.

Having determined in a phase I study the maximum tolerated dose of high-dose ifosfamide combined with high-dose doxorubicin, we now report the long-term results of a phase II trial in advanced soft-tissue sarcomas. Forty-six patients with locally advanced or metastatic soft-tissue sarcomas were included, with age <60 years and all except one in good performance status (0 or 1). The chemotherapy treatment consisted of ifosfamide 10 g m(-2) (continuous infusion for 5 days), doxorubicin 30 mg m(-2) day(-1) x 3 (total dose 90 mg m(-2)), mesna and granulocyte-colony stimulating factor. Cycles were repeated every 21 days. A median of 4 (1-6) cycles per patient was administered. Twenty-two patients responded to therapy, including three complete responders and 19 partial responders for an overall response rate of 48% (95% CI: 33-63%). The response rate was not different between localised and metastatic diseases or between histological types, but was higher in grade 3 tumours. Median overall survival was 19 months. Salvage therapies (surgery and/or radiotherapy) were performed in 43% of patients and found to be the most significant predictor for favourable survival (exploratory multivariate analysis). Haematological toxicity was severe, including grade > or =3 neutropenia in 59%, thrombopenia in 39% and anaemia in 27% of cycles. Three patients experienced grade 3 neurotoxicity and one patient died of septic shock. This high-dose regimen is toxic but nonetheless feasible in multicentre settings in non elderly patients with good performance status. A high response rate was obtained. Prolonged survival was mainly a function of salvage therapies.

Ruptured pseudo-aneurysm of a femoral artery in a drug abuser revealed by post-mortem CT angiography.

A 35-year-old drug addict was found dead in a public toilet with a ruptured groin, which was later diagnosed to be a leaking pseudo-aneurysm. Investigation at the scene revealed impressive external hemorrhage related to a groin wound. Post-mortem computed tomography angiography demonstrated an aneurysm of the right femoral artery with leak of contrast liquid. Signs of blood loss were evident at autopsy, and histological examination revealed necrosis and rupture of the pseudo-aneurysm. Toxicological analyses were positive for methadone, cocaine, citalopram, and benzodiazepines. This is the first case report in the literature of a ruptured femoral pseudo-aneurysm with a post-mortem radiological diagnosis.

Targeting mitochondria in the infection strategy of the hepatitis C virus.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection induces a state of oxidative stress more pronounced than that observed in many other inflammatory diseases. Here, we propose a temporal sequence of events in the HCV-infected cell whereby the primary alteration consists of a release of Ca(2+) from the endoplasmic reticulum, followed by uptake into mitochondria. This ensues successive mitochondrial dysfunction leading to the generation of reactive oxygen species and a progressive metabolic adaptive response. Evidence is provided for a positive feed-back mechanism between alterations of calcium and redox homeostasis. This likely involves deregulation of the mitochondrial permeability transition and induces progressive dysfunction of cellular bioenergetics. Pathogenetic implications of the model and new opportunities for therapeutic intervention are discussed. This article is part of a Directed Issue entitled: Bioenergetic dysfunction, adaptation and therapy.

Vincristine and intestinal pseudo-obstruction in children: report of 5 cases, literature review, and suggested management.

Summary: Intestinal pseudo-obstruction is a rare complication resulting from a variety of disorders. Symptoms include abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, constipation, and malnutrition. Vincristine-related pseudo-obstruction has been reported in the literature, but its description in children and recommendations for management are lacking. A review of the literature revealed 21 reported pediatric cases of vincristine-related pseudo-obstruction. Most have, however, been attributed to a drug interaction with itraconazole, accidental vincristine overdose, or liver failure. Potential genetic causes are rarely addressed. We present here 5 cases of pseudo-obstruction related to vincristine without any identifiable predisposing factors, and a suggested algorithm for management

La pseudo-clivée: étude en linguistique interactionnelle

2. Plan du travail Pour atteindre nos objectifs, notre travail sera essentiellement divisé en trois grandes sections. La première partie nous sert principalement à esquisser notre démarche et les enjeux de notre entreprise, ainsi qu'à la situer au sein d'un cadre théorique - la linguistique interactionnelle - combinant l'analyse grammaticale et l'analyse conversationnelle. Nous procéderons d'abord à une brève description de l'analyse conversationnelle ethnométhodologique, ensuite à celle du courant Interaction and Grammar. Dans le cadre de ces descriptions, nous illustrerons par des exemples les liens entre la grammaire et l'interaction sociale tels qu'ils ont été élaborés dans de nombreuses recherches dans le domaine. Finalement, nous résumerons nos objectifs et nos procédures d'analyse. La deuxième partie consiste essentiellement en une discussion et une problématisation de l'état de la recherche dans la littérature. L'exposé montrera les principaux problèmes que la pseudo-clivée pose aux différents niveaux d'analyse. Nous y traiterons des problèmes de définition et de délimitation de la construction en question au niveau syntaxique et sémantique. Nous enchaînerons avec l'exposé de l'état de la recherche au niveau pragmatique et discursif Cette discussion nous permettra de problématiser à la fois la fonction principale dévolue à la pseudo-clivée et l'établissement de la relation entre forme et fonction. Finalement, nous aborderons certains aspects dont nous ne nous occuperons pas ou seulement partiellement dans notre travail. Le résumé de cette deuxième partie nous servira à récapituler les problèmes soulevés par la pseudo-clivée française. La troisième partie - empirique et analytique - constitue la partie centrale de ce travail. Elle exposera nos résultats à travers l'analyse d'exemples qui exhibent les propriétés typiques des occurrences retenues dans notre corpus. Cette partie est donc consacrée aux formes, aux fonctionnements syntaxico-séquentiels et aux fonctions effectivement rencontrées dans nos données pour aboutir à une description de ses propriétés interactives et à une typologie compatible avec les usages interactifs réels. Après l'exposé de ce qui nous semble le plus typique dans l'usage interactif effectif de la pseudo-clivée par les interlocuteurs, nous nous dirigerons plus particulièrement vers la délimitation et la localisation de notre objet d'analyse, d'une part, par rapport à d'autres constructions (clivées, pseudo-clivées inversées, dislocations à gauche), et d'autre part, par rapport à d'autres unions d'unités qui n'ont pas le statut de construction en usage. Finalement, nous tenterons d'intégrer nos observations dans une description cohérente du "phénomène pseudo-clivé" dans l'usage des locuteurs. De plus, nous présenterons - sur la base de nos résultats - des réponses ou des éléments de réponse aux problématiques soulevées par notre objet d'analyse telles que nous les avons élaborées et discutées dans la partie II de ce travail. Nous terminerons par une discussion sur les apports de notre démarche, ainsi qu'à une évaluation de notre conception spécifique des faits de grammaire, et plus particulièrement d'une construction syntaxique (partie IV). Nous indiquerons des pistes de recherche possibles à suivre en fonction de nos résultats. Parmi d'éventuelles investigations futures, un accent particulier sera mis sur les aspects prosodiques et la recherche comparative.

Origin of Early Carboniferous pseudo-adakites in northern Brittany (France) through massive amphibole fractionation from hydrous basalt

P>The first Variscan pseudo-adakites were identified in close association with the Saint-Jean-du-Doigt (SJDD) mafic intrusion (Brittany, France) in a geodynamic context unrelated to subduction. These rocks are trondhjemites emplaced 347 +/- 4 Ma ago as 2-3 km2 bodies and dykes. Trace-element concentrations and Sr-Nd-Pb isotope ratios indicate that the SJDD pseudo-adakites probably resulted from extreme differentiation of an SJDD-type hydrous basaltic magma in a lower continental crust of normal thickness (0.8 GPa). Modelling shows that garnet is not a required phase, which was commonly believed to be the case for continental arc-derived adakite-like rocks. A massive fractionation of amphibole fits the data much better and does not require high pressures, in agreement with the inferred extensional tectonic regime at the time of pluton emplacement. Alternatively, the SJDD pseudo-adakites could have resulted from the melting of newly underplated SJDD mafic precursors, but thermal considerations lead us to believe that this was not the case.