Predicting adverse events in children with fever and chemotherapy-induced neutropenia: the prospective multicenter SPOG 2003 FN study.

PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.

Comparing potentially avoidable hospitalization rates related to ambulatory care sensitive conditions in Switzerland: the need to refine the definition of health conditions and to adjust for population health status.

BACKGROUND: Regional rates of hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) are used to compare the availability and quality of ambulatory care but the risk adjustment for population health status is often minimal. The objectives of the study was to examine the impact of more extensive risk adjustment on regional comparisons and to investigate the relationship between various area-level factors and the properly adjusted rates. METHODS: Our study is an observational study based on routine data of 2 million anonymous insured in 26 Swiss cantons followed over one or two years. A binomial negative regression was modeled with increasingly detailed information on health status (age and gender only, inpatient diagnoses, outpatient conditions inferred from dispensed drugs and frequency of physician visits). Hospitalizations for ACSC were identified from principal diagnoses detecting 19 conditions, with an updated list of ICD-10 diagnostic codes. Co-morbidities and surgical procedures were used as exclusion criteria to improve the specificity of the detection of potentially avoidable hospitalizations. The impact of the adjustment approaches was measured by changes in the standardized ratios calculated with and without other data besides age and gender. RESULTS: 25% of cases identified by inpatient main diagnoses were removed by applying exclusion criteria. Cantonal ACSC hospitalizations rates varied from to 1.4 to 8.9 per 1,000 insured, per year. Morbidity inferred from diagnoses and drugs dramatically increased the predictive performance, the greatest effect found for conditions linked to an ACSC. More visits were associated with fewer PAH although very high users were at greater risk and subjects who had not consulted at negligible risk. By maximizing health status adjustment, two thirds of the cantons changed their adjusted ratio by more than 10 percent. Cantonal variations remained substantial but unexplained by supply or demand. CONCLUSION: Additional adjustment for health status is required when using ACSC to monitor ambulatory care. Drug-inferred morbidities are a promising approach.

3B.01: Performance of targeted screening for the identification of hypertension in children

OBJECTIVE: As universal screening of hypertension performs poorly in childhood, targeted screening to children at higher risk of hypertension has been proposed. Our goal was to assess the performance of combined parental history of hypertension and overweight/obesity to identify children with hypertension. We estimated the sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values of overweight/obesity and parental history of hypertension for the identification of hypertension in children. DESIGN AND METHOD: We analyzed data from a school-based cross-sectional study including 5207 children aged 10 to 14 years from all public 6th grade classes in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland. Blood pressure was measured with a clinically validated oscillometric automated device over up to three visits separated by one week. Children had hypertension if they had sustained elevated blood pressure over the three visits. Parents were interviewed about their history of hypertension. RESULTS: The prevalence of hypertension was 2.2%. 14% of children were overweight or obese and 20% had a positive history of hypertension in either or both parents. 30% of children had either or both conditions. After accounting for several potential confounding factors, parental history of hypertension (odds ratio (OR): 2.6; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.8-4.0), overweight excluding obesity (OR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.5-4.2) and obesity (OR: 10.1; 95% CI: 6.0-17.0) were associated with hypertension in children. Considered in isolation, the sensitivity and positive predictive values of parental history of hypertension (respectively 41% and 5%) or overweight/obesity (respectively 43% and 7%) were relatively low. Nevertheless, considered together, the sensitivity of targeted screening in children with either overweight/obesity or paternal history of hypertension was higher (65%) but the positive predictive value remained low (5%). The negative predictive value was systematically high. CONCLUSIONS: Restricting screening of hypertension to children with either overweight/obesity or with hypertensive parents would substantially limit the proportion of children to screen (30%) and allow the identification of a relatively large proportion (65%) of hypertensive cases. That could be a valuable alternative to universal screening.