Multifractal portrayal of the Swiss population

Fractal geometry is a fundamental approach for describing the complex irregularities of the spatial structure of point patterns. The present research characterizes the spatial structure of the Swiss population distribution in the three Swiss geographical regions (Alps, Plateau and Jura) and at the entire country level. These analyses were carried out using fractal and multifractal measures for point patterns, which enabled the estimation of the spatial degree of clustering of a distribution at different scales. The Swiss population dataset is presented on a grid of points and thus it can be modelled as a "point process" where each point is characterized by its spatial location (geometrical support) and a number of inhabitants (measured variable). The fractal characterization was performed by means of the box-counting dimension and the multifractal analysis was conducted through the Renyi's generalized dimensions and the multifractal spectrum. Results showed that the four population patterns are all multifractals and present different clustering behaviours. Applying multifractal and fractal methods at different geographical regions and at different scales allowed us to quantify and describe the dissimilarities between the four structures and their underlying processes. This paper is the first Swiss geodemographic study applying multifractal methods using high resolution data.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. METHODS: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18·5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), ≥40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21·3-22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m(2) (24·0-24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m(2) (21·7-22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m(2) (24·2-24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m(2) (28·6-29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m(2) (21·4-22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m(2) (31·5-32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5-17·4) to 8·8% (7·4-10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6-17·9) to 9·7% (8·3-11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8-29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9-29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4-4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7-12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1-7·8) to 14·9% (13·6-16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0-2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4-5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46-0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3-1·9) in women. INTERPRETATION: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada.

Improved statistical analysis of low abundance phenomena in bimodal bacterial populations.

Accurate detection of subpopulation size determinations in bimodal populations remains problematic yet it represents a powerful way by which cellular heterogeneity under different environmental conditions can be compared. So far, most studies have relied on qualitative descriptions of population distribution patterns, on population-independent descriptors, or on arbitrary placement of thresholds distinguishing biological ON from OFF states. We found that all these methods fall short of accurately describing small population sizes in bimodal populations. Here we propose a simple, statistics-based method for the analysis of small subpopulation sizes for use in the free software environment R and test this method on real as well as simulated data. Four so-called population splitting methods were designed with different algorithms that can estimate subpopulation sizes from bimodal populations. All four methods proved more precise than previously used methods when analyzing subpopulation sizes of transfer competent cells arising in populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas knackmussii B13. The methods' resolving powers were further explored by bootstrapping and simulations. Two of the methods were not severely limited by the proportions of subpopulations they could estimate correctly, but the two others only allowed accurate subpopulation quantification when this amounted to less than 25% of the total population. In contrast, only one method was still sufficiently accurate with subpopulations smaller than 1% of the total population. This study proposes a number of rational approximations to quantifying small subpopulations and offers an easy-to-use protocol for their implementation in the open source statistical software environment R.

The distribution of congenital anomalies within the VACTERL association among tumor necrosis factor antagonist-exposed pregnancies is similar to the general population.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the distribution of congenital anomalies within the VACTERL association (vertebral defects, anal atresia, cardiac, tracheoesophageal, renal, and limb abnormalities) between patients exposed to tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) antagonist and the general population. METHODS: Analysis for comparison of proportional differences to a previous publication between anomaly subgroups, according to subgroup definitions of the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT), a population-based database. RESULTS: Most EUROCAT subgroups belonging to the VACTERL association contained only one or 2 records of TNF-α antagonist exposure, so comparison of proportions was imprecise. Only the category "limb abnormalities" showed a significantly higher proportion in the general population. CONCLUSION: The high number of congenital anomalies belonging to the VACTERL association from a report of pregnancies exposed to TNF-α antagonists could not be confirmed using a population-based congenital anomaly database.

The stationary distribution of a continuously varying strategy in a class-structured population under mutation-selection-drift balance.

Many traits and/or strategies expressed by organisms are quantitative phenotypes. Because populations are of finite size and genomes are subject to mutations, these continuously varying phenotypes are under the joint pressure of mutation, natural selection and random genetic drift. This article derives the stationary distribution for such a phenotype under a mutation-selection-drift balance in a class-structured population allowing for demographically varying class sizes and/or changing environmental conditions. The salient feature of the stationary distribution is that it can be entirely characterized in terms of the average size of the gene pool and Hamilton's inclusive fitness effect. The exploration of the phenotypic space varies exponentially with the cumulative inclusive fitness effect over state space, which determines an adaptive landscape. The peaks of the landscapes are those phenotypes that are candidate evolutionary stable strategies and can be determined by standard phenotypic selection gradient methods (e.g. evolutionary game theory, kin selection theory, adaptive dynamics). The curvature of the stationary distribution provides a measure of the stability by convergence of candidate evolutionary stable strategies, and it is evaluated explicitly for two biological scenarios: first, a coordination game, which illustrates that, for a multipeaked adaptive landscape, stochastically stable strategies can be singled out by letting the size of the gene pool grow large; second, a sex-allocation game for diploids and haplo-diploids, which suggests that the equilibrium sex ratio follows a Beta distribution with parameters depending on the features of the genetic system.

Multifractal portrayal of the distribution of the Swiss population

The present research studies the spatial patterns of the distribution of the Swiss population (DSP). This description is carried out using a wide variety of global spatial structural analysis tools such as topological, statistical and fractal measures, which enable the estimation of the spatial degree of clustering of a point pattern. A particular attention is given to the analysis of the multifractality to characterize the spatial structure of the DSP at different scales. This will be achieved by measuring the generalized q-dimensions and the singularity spectrum. This research is based on high quality data of the Swiss Population Census of the Year 2000 at a hectometric resolution (grid 100 x 100 m) issued by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Distribution de la fraction d'excrétion rénale du lithium et de l'acide urique dans l'étude de population Hercules

Problématique¦L'évaluation fonctionnelle du tubule proximal du rein est intéressante pour la compréhension de la physiopathologie des anomalies du transport du sodium à ce niveau du néphron. Ces anomalies participent au développement de l'hypertension artérielle (HTA) et de la sensibilité au sel. Environ 60% à 80% du sodium est réabsorbé proximalement dans le néphron. Chez l'animal, la fonction du tube proximal peut être estimée directement par microponction. Une telle approche directe n'étant pas possible chez l'homme, seul des approches indirectes permettent de recueillir des informations sur la physiologie de ce segment du néphron, comme par exemple par la mesure de la clairance du lithium (endogène ou exogène) ou de l'acide urique. La fraction d'excrétion du lithium (FELi) et la fraction d'excrétion de l'acide urique (FEAU) permettent d'estimer la réabsorption proximale de sodium chez l'homme. Plusieurs études expérimentales et cliniques ont montré l'existence d'une relation linéaire entre la FELi et la fraction excrétée du sodium (FENa) chez l'animal et l'homme.¦Objectif¦Décrire la distribution de la FELi et de la FEAU et analyser les associations de ces deux variables avec l'âge, le sexe, la consommation d'alcool, le tabagisme, la pression artérielle et l'IMC dans l'étude de population Hercules.¦Méthodes¦Sélection au hasard d'un sous-groupe de participants de l'étude CoLaus (N=6188). Nombre de participants à l'étude Hercules: 437, dont 229 femmes et 208 hommes. Les participants ont effectué une récolte d'urine sur 24 heures afin de déterminer la fonction rénale et les FELi et FEAU. Le TFG a été mesuré à l'aide de la clairance de la créatinine. Le test des rangs signés de Wilcoxon pour données appariées ( Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed rank test) et le test de comparaison des médianes ont été utilisés pour la comparaison entre groupes. Le coefficient de corrélation de Spearman a été utilisé pour évaluer la relation entre les variables continues. Les box-plots ont été utilisés pour la description de la distribution du lithium et de l'acide urique selon l'âge, le sexe et la période de la journée. Le logiciel Stata 11.0 a été utilisé pour les analyses statistiques.¦Résultats¦La prévalence de l'HTA dans la population de l'étude Hercules était 33%, la prévalence du diabète était 8%, la prévalence de l'obésité était 15.3%, la prévalence du tabagisme était 23%. La FELi reste stable avec l'âge et est similaire dans les deux sexes. Chez les hommes, la FELi est plus grande la nuit que le jour, c'est-à-dire qu'ils résorbent plus de sodium proximalement le jour que la nuit. Un IMC plus grand est associé à une FELi plus basse dans les deux sexes. Il y a une corrélation négative entre la FEAU et l'IMC (significative) et la consommation d'alcool.¦Conclusion¦Les résultats obtenus avec les données de l'étude Hercules sont similaires à ceux qu'on retrouve dans la littérature sur la FELi et la FEAU , ce qui rassure sur la qualité des données. La FELi varie peu avec l'âge et le sexe, contrairement à la FEAU, qui varie fortement avec l'âge et le sexe. L'HTA, le diabète, l'obésité, le tabagisme et la consommation d'alcool sont associées à une FELi et FEAU plus basses. Les sujets qui présentent ces caractéristiques réabsorbent donc plus de sodium au niveau proximal.

Extreme population differentiation in vulnerable slavemaking ant with fragmented distribution

Understanding levels of population differentiation and inbreeding are important issues in conservation biology, especially for social Hymenoptera with fragmented and small population sizes. Isolated populations are more vulnerable to genetic loss and extinction than those with extended continuous distributions. However, small populations are not always a consequence of a recent reduction of their habitat. Thus, determining the history of population isolation and current patterns of genetic variation of a species is crucial for its conservation. Rossomyrmex minuchae is a slave-making ant with patchy distribution in South Eastern Spain and is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN. In contrast, the other three known species of the genus are presumed to show more uniform distributions. Here we investigate the genetic diversity and population structure of R. minuchae and compare it with that found in two other species of the genus: R. anatolicus and R. quandratinodum. We conclude that although genetic diversity of R. minuchae is low, there is no evidence of a recent bottleneck, suggesting a gradual and natural fragmentation process. We also show extreme population differentiation at nuclear and mitochondrial markers, and isolation by distance at a local scale. Despite some evidence for inbreeding and low genetic variation within populations, we found almost no diploid males, a finding which contrasts with that expected in inbred Hymenoptera with single locus complementary sex determination. This could mean that sex is determined by another mechanism. We argue that continued low population size means that detrimental effects of inbreeding and low genetic variation are likely in the future. We suggest that a policy of artificial gene flow aimed at increasing within population variation is considered as a management option.

Distribution of plasma levels of adiponectin and leptin in an adult Caucasian population.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known regarding the distribution and the determinants of leptin and adiponectin levels in the general population. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. PATIENTS: Women (3004) and men (2552) aged 35-74 living in Lausanne, Switzerland. MEASUREMENTS: Plasma levels of leptin and adiponectin (ELISA measurement). RESULTS: Women had higher leptin and adiponectin levels than men. In both genders, leptin and adiponectin levels increased with age. After adjusting for fat mass, leptin levels were significantly and negatively associated with age in women: 18.1 +/- 0.3, 17.1 +/- 0.3, 16.7 +/- 0.3 and 15.5 +/- 0.4 ng/ml (adjusted mean +/- SE) for age groups [35-44], [45-54], [55-64] and [65-75], respectively, P < 0.001. A similar but nonsignificant trend was also found in men. Conversely, the age-related increase of adiponectin was unrelated to body fat in both genders. Post-menopausal women had higher leptin and adiponectin levels than premenopausal women, independently of hormone replacement therapy. Although body fat mass was associated with leptin and adiponectin, the associations were stronger with body mass index (BMI), waist and hip in both genders. Finally, after adjusting for age and anthropometry, no relationships were found between leptin or adiponectin levels with alcohol, caffeine consumption and physical activity, whereas smoking and diabetes decreased leptin and adiponectin levels in women only. CONCLUSIONS: The age-related increase in leptin levels is attributable to changes in fat mass in women and probably also in men. Leptin and adiponectin levels are more related to BMI than to body fat mass. The effects of smoking and diabetes appear to be gender-specific.

Distribution and population genetic variation of cryptic species of the Alpine mayfly Baetis alpinus (Ephemeroptera: Baetidae) in the Central Alps.

BACKGROUND: Many species contain evolutionarily distinct groups that are genetically highly differentiated but morphologically difficult to distinguish (i.e., cryptic species). The presence of cryptic species poses significant challenges for the accurate assessment of biodiversity and, if unrecognized, may lead to erroneous inferences in many fields of biological research and conservation. RESULTS: We tested for cryptic genetic variation within the broadly distributed alpine mayfly Baetis alpinus across several major European drainages in the central Alps. Bayesian clustering and multivariate analyses of nuclear microsatellite loci, combined with phylogenetic analyses of mitochondrial DNA, were used to assess population genetic structure and diversity. We identified two genetically highly differentiated lineages (A and B) that had no obvious differences in regional distribution patterns, and occurred in local sympatry. Furthermore, the two lineages differed in relative abundance, overall levels of genetic diversity as well as patterns of population structure: lineage A was abundant, widely distributed and had a higher level of genetic variation, whereas lineage B was less abundant, more prevalent in spring-fed tributaries than glacier-fed streams and restricted to high elevations. Subsequent morphological analyses revealed that traits previously acknowledged as intraspecific variation of B. alpinus in fact segregated these two lineages. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, our findings indicate that even common and apparently ecologically well-studied species may consist of reproductively isolated units, with distinct evolutionary histories and likely different ecology and evolutionary potential. These findings emphasize the need to investigate hidden diversity even in well-known species to allow for appropriate assessment of biological diversity and conservation measures.

Utilisation de la coronarographie en Suisse: une étude de population. [The use of coronary vessel radiography in Switzerland: a population study].

All patients having undergone a coronarography during 1984 have been surveyed in Switzerland. This retrospective study has used existing data in the 13 centers practicing this diagnostic procedure. 4921 coronarographies were carried out in 1984, amongst 4359 patients. In terms of population-based rates, the national figures are 77 procedures/100,000 residents, and 68 patients/100,000 residents. Female rates are one fourth of the male rates (27/100,000 versus 112/100,000). For both sexes, the highest utilization rates are for the age groups 60-64. Swiss figures are relatively low when compared with other developed countries. However, patterns of utilization are very different within the country: according to the Canton of residence of the patient, the utilization rates (standardized for age and sex) vary from 8/100,000 to 160/100,000. There is a distinct gradient from south-west to north-east, which closely corresponds to the distribution of centers practicing the procedure. More intriguing is the fact that cardiovascular mortality shows an inverse geographical gradient, with the highest mortality in Cantons having the lowest rate of coronarography. Various reasons for the observed variations are discussed, in relation with differences in supply of diagnostic and therapeutic equipments, but also in relation with various patterns of demand related to differential morbidity rates and/or differential patterns of clinical decision.

Nest distribution varies with dispersal method and familiarity-mediated aggression for two sympatric ants

Dispersal mechanisms and competition together play a key role in the spatial distribution of a population. Species that disperse via fission are likely to experience high levels of localized competitive pressure from conspecifics relative to species that disperse in other ways. Although fission dispersal occurs in many species, its ecological and behavioural effects remain unclear. We compared foraging effort, nest spatial distribution and aggression of two sympatric ant species that differ in reproductive dispersal: Streblognathus peetersi, which disperse by group fission, and Plectroctena mandibularis, which disperse by solitary wingless queens. We found that although both species share space and have similar foraging strategies, they differ in nest distribution and aggressive behaviour. The spatial distribution of S. peetersi nests was extremely aggregated, and workers were less aggressive towards conspecifics from nearby nests than towards distant conspecifics and all heterospecific workers. By contrast, the spatial distribution of P. mandibularis nests was overdispersed, and workers were equally aggressive towards conspecific and heterospecific competitors regardless of nest distance. Finally, laboratory experiments showed that familiarity led to the positive relationship between aggression and nest distance in S. peetersi. While unfamiliar individuals were initially aggressive, the level of aggression decreased within 1 h of contact, and continued to decrease over 24 h. Furthermore, individuals from near nests that were not aggressive could be induced to aggression after prolonged isolation. Overall, these results suggest that low aggression mediated by familiarity could provide benefits for a species with fission reproduction and an aggregated spatial distribution.

Challenging recommended oral and intravenous voriconazole doses for improved efficacy and safety: population pharmacokinetics-based analysis of adult patients with invasive fungal infections.

BACKGROUND: Recommended oral voriconazole (VRC) doses are lower than intravenous doses. Because plasma concentrations impact efficacy and safety of therapy, optimizing individual drug exposure may improve these outcomes. METHODS: A population pharmacokinetic analysis (NONMEM) was performed on 505 plasma concentration measurements involving 55 patients with invasive mycoses who received recommended VRC doses. RESULTS: A 1-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination best fitted the data. VRC clearance was 5.2 L/h, the volume of distribution was 92 L, the absorption rate constant was 1.1 hour(-1), and oral bioavailability was 0.63. Severe cholestasis decreased VRC elimination by 52%. A large interpatient variability was observed on clearance (coefficient of variation [CV], 40%) and bioavailability (CV 84%), and an interoccasion variability was observed on bioavailability (CV, 93%). Lack of response to therapy occurred in 12 of 55 patients (22%), and grade 3 neurotoxicity occurred in 5 of 55 patients (9%). A logistic multivariate regression analysis revealed an independent association between VRC trough concentrations and probability of response or neurotoxicity by identifying a therapeutic range of 1.5 mg/L (>85% probability of response) to 4.5 mg/L (<15% probability of neurotoxicity). Population-based simulations with the recommended 200 mg oral or 300 mg intravenous twice-daily regimens predicted probabilities of 49% and 87%, respectively, for achievement of 1.5 mg/L and of 8% and 37%, respectively, for achievement of 4.5 mg/L. With 300-400 mg twice-daily oral doses and 200-300 mg twice-daily intravenous doses, the predicted probabilities of achieving the lower target concentration were 68%-78% for the oral regimen and 70%-87% for the intravenous regimen, and the predicted probabilities of achieving the upper target concentration were 19%-29% for the oral regimen and 18%-37% for the intravenous regimen. CONCLUSIONS: Higher oral than intravenous VRC doses, followed by individualized adjustments based on measured plasma concentrations, improve achievement of the therapeutic target that maximizes the probability of therapeutic response and minimizes the probability of neurotoxicity. These findings challenge dose recommendations for VRC.