On the efficient evaluation of ruin probabilities for completely monotone claim size distributions

In this paper we propose a highly accurate approximation procedure for ruin probabilities in the classical collective risk model, which is based on a quadrature/rational approximation procedure proposed in [2]. For a certain class of claim size distributions (which contains the completely monotone distributions) we give a theoretical justification for the method. We also show that under weaker assumptions on the claim size distribution, the method may still perform reasonably well in some cases. This in particular provides an efficient alternative to a related method proposed in [3]. A number of numerical illustrations for the performance of this procedure is provided for both completely monotone and other types of random variables.

High Altitude Increases Alteration in Maximal Torque but Not in Rapid Torque Development in Knee Extensors after Repeated Treadmill Sprinting.

We assessed knee extensor neuromuscular adjustments following repeated treadmill sprints in different normobaric hypoxia conditions, with special reference to rapid muscle torque production capacity. Thirteen team- and racquet-sport athletes undertook 8 × 5-s "all-out" sprints (passive recovery = 25 s) on a non-motorized treadmill in normoxia (NM; FiO2 = 20.9%), at low (LA; FiO2 = 16.8%) and high (HA; FiO2 = 13.3%) normobaric hypoxia (simulated altitudes of ~1800 m and ~3600 m, respectively). Explosive (~1 s; "fast" instruction) and maximal (~5 s; "hard" instruction) voluntary isometric contractions (MVC) of the knee extensors (KE), with concurrent electromyographic (EMG) activity recordings of the vastus lateralis (VL) and rectus femoris (RF) muscles, were performed before and 1-min post-exercise. Rate of torque development (RTD) and EMG (i.e., Root Mean Square or RMS) rise from 0 to 30, -50, -100, and -200 ms were recorded, and were also normalized to maximal torque and EMG values, respectively. Distance covered during the first 5-s sprint was similar (P > 0.05) in all conditions. A larger (P < 0.05) sprint decrement score and a shorter (P < 0.05) cumulated distance covered over the eight sprints occurred in HA (-8 ± 4% and 178 ± 11 m) but not in LA (-7 ± 3% and 181 ± 10 m) compared to NM (-5 ± 2% and 183 ± 9 m). Compared to NM (-9 ± 7%), a larger (P < 0.05) reduction in MVC torque occurred post-exercise in HA (-14 ± 9%) but not in LA (-12 ± 7%), with no difference between NM and LA (P > 0.05). Irrespectively of condition (P > 0.05), peak RTD (-6 ± 11%; P < 0.05), and normalized peak RMS activity for VL (-8 ± 11%; P = 0.07) and RF (-14 ± 11%; P < 0.01) muscles were reduced post-exercise, whereas reductions (P < 0.05) in absolute RTD occurred within the 0-100 (-8 ± 9%) and 0-200 ms (-10 ± 8%) epochs after contraction onset. After normalization to MVC torque, there was no difference in RTD values. Additionally, the EMG rise for VL muscle was similar (P > 0.05), whereas it increased (P < 0.05) for RF muscle during all epochs post-exercise, independently of the conditions. In summary, alteration in repeated-sprint ability and post-exercise MVC decrease were greater at high altitude than in normoxia or at low altitude. However, the post-exercise alterations in RTD were similar between normoxia and low-to-high hypoxia.

PulseCath iVAC 3LTM hemodynamic performance for simple assisted flow.

The PulseCath iVAC 3L? left ventricular assist device is an option to treat transitory left heart failure or dysfunction post-cardiac surgery. Assisted blood flow should reach up to 3 l/min. In the present in vitro model exact pump flow, depending on various frequencies and afterload was examined. Optimal flow was achieved with inflation/deflation frequencies of about 70-80/min. The maximal flow rate was achieved at about 2.5 l/min with a minimal afterload of 22 mmHg. Handling of the device was easy due to the connection to a standard intra-aortic balloon pump console. With increasing afterload (up to a simulated mean systemic pressure of 66 mmHg) flow rate and cardiac support are in some extent limited.

A mathematical model to describe fat oxidation kinetics during graded exercise.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to develop a mathematical model (sine model, SIN) to describe fat oxidation kinetics as a function of the relative exercise intensity [% of maximal oxygen uptake (%VO2max)] during graded exercise and to determine the exercise intensity (Fatmax) that elicits maximal fat oxidation (MFO) and the intensity at which the fat oxidation becomes negligible (Fatmin). This model included three independent variables (dilatation, symmetry, and translation) that incorporated primary expected modulations of the curve because of training level or body composition. METHODS: Thirty-two healthy volunteers (17 women and 15 men) performed a graded exercise test on a cycle ergometer, with 3-min stages and 20-W increments. Substrate oxidation rates were determined using indirect calorimetry. SIN was compared with measured values (MV) and with other methods currently used [i.e., the RER method (MRER) and third polynomial curves (P3)]. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the fitting accuracy between SIN and P3 (P = 0.157), whereas MRER was less precise than SIN (P < 0.001). Fatmax (44 +/- 10% VO2max) and MFO (0.37 +/- 0.16 g x min(-1)) determined using SIN were significantly correlated with MV, P3, and MRER (P < 0.001). The variable of dilatation was correlated with Fatmax, Fatmin, and MFO (r = 0.79, r = 0.67, and r = 0.60, respectively, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The SIN model presents the same precision as other methods currently used in the determination of Fatmax and MFO but in addition allows calculation of Fatmin. Moreover, the three independent variables are directly related to the main expected modulations of the fat oxidation curve. SIN, therefore, seems to be an appropriate tool in analyzing fat oxidation kinetics obtained during graded exercise.

Mutational analysis of the highly conserved arginine within the Glu/Asp-Arg-Tyr motif of the alpha(1b)-adrenergic receptor: effects on receptor isomerization and activation.

We have suggested previously that both the negatively and positively charged residues of the highly conserved Glu/Asp-Arg-Tyr (E/DRY) motif play an important role in the activation process of the alpha(1b)-adreneric receptor (AR). In this study, R143 of the E/DRY sequence in the alpha(1b)-AR was mutated into several amino acids (Lys, His, Glu, Asp, Ala, Asn, and Ile). The charge-conserving mutation of R143 into lysine not only preserved the maximal agonist-induced response of the alpha(1b)-AR, but it also conferred high degree of constitutive activity to the receptor. Both basal and agonist-induced phosphorylation levels were significantly increased for the R143K mutant compared with those of the wild-type receptor. Other substitutions of R143 resulted in receptor mutants with either a small increase in constitutive activity (R143H and R143D), impairment (R143H, R143D), or complete loss of receptor-mediated response (R143E, R143A, R143N, R143I). The R413E mutant displayed a small, but significant increase in basal phosphorylation despite being severely impaired in receptor-mediated response. Interestingly, all the arginine mutants displayed increased affinity for agonist binding compared with the wild-type alpha(1b)-AR. A correlation was found between the extent of the affinity shift and the intrinsic activity of the agonists. The analysis of the receptor mutants using the allosteric ternary complex model in conjunction with the results of molecular dynamics simulations on the receptor models support the hypothesis that mutations of R143 can drive the isomerization of the alpha(1b)-AR into different states, highlighting the crucial role of this residue in the activation process of the receptor.

A simple genetic basis for complex social behaviour mediates widespread gene expression differences.

A remarkable social polymorphism is controlled by a single Mendelian factor in the fire ant Solenopsis invicta. A genomic element marked by the gene Gp-9 determines whether workers tolerate one or many fertile queens in their colony. Gp-9 was recently shown to be part of a supergene with two nonrecombining variants, SB and Sb. SB/SB and SB/Sb queens differ in how they initiate new colonies, and in many physiological traits, for example odour and maturation rate. To understand how a single genetic element can affect all these traits, we used a microarray to compare gene expression patterns between SB/SB and SB/Sb queens of three different age classes: 1-day-old unmated queens, 11-day-old unmated queens and mated, fully reproductive queens collected from mature field colonies. The number of genes that were differentially expressed between SB/SB and SB/Sb queens of the same age class was smallest in 1-day-old queens, maximal in 11-day-old queens and intermediate in reproductive queens. Gene ontology analysis showed that SB/SB queens upregulate reproductive genes faster than SB/Sb queens. For all age classes, genes inside the supergene were overrepresented among the differentially expressed genes. Consistent with the hypothesized greater number of transposons in the Sb supergene, 13 transposon genes were upregulated in SB/Sb queens. Viral genes were also upregulated in SB/Sb mature queens, consistent with the known greater parasite load in colonies headed by SB/Sb queens compared with colonies headed by SB/SB queens. Eighteen differentially expressed genes between reproductive queens were involved in chemical signalling. Our results suggest that many genes in the supergene are involved in regulating social organization and queen phenotypes in fire ants.

Pharmacokinetics and safety of panobacumab: specific adjunctive immunotherapy in critical patients with nosocomial Pseudomonas aeruginosa O11 pneumonia.

Objectives Nosocomial Pseudomonas aeruginosa pneumonia remains a major concern in critically ill patients. We explored the potential impact of microorganism-targeted adjunctive immunotherapy in such patients. Patients and methods This multicentre, open pilot Phase 2a clinical trial (NCT00851435) prospectively evaluated the safety, pharmacokinetics and potential efficacy of three doses of 1.2 mg/kg panobacumab, a fully human monoclonal anti-lipopolysaccharide IgM, given every 72 h in 18 patients developing nosocomial P. aeruginosa (serotype O11) pneumonia. Results Seventeen out of 18 patients were included in the pharmacokinetic analysis. In 13 patients receiving three doses, the maximal concentration after the third infusion was 33.9 ± 8.0 μg/mL, total area under the serum concentration-time curve was 5397 ± 1993 μg h/mL and elimination half-life was 102.3 ± 47.8 h. Panobacumab was well tolerated, induced no immunogenicity and was detected in respiratory samples. In contrast to Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) prediction, all 13 patients receiving three doses survived, with a mean clinical resolution in 9.0 ± 2.7 days. Two patients suffered a recurrence at days 17 and 20. Conclusions These data suggest that panobacumab is safe, with a pharmacokinetic profile similar to that in healthy volunteers. It was associated with high clinical cure and survival rates in patients developing nosocomial P. aeruginosa O11 pneumonia. We concluded that these promising results warrant further trials.

Optimized venous return with a self-expanding cannula: from computational fluid dynamics to clinical application.

The Smart canula concept allows for collapsed cannula insertion, and self-expansion within a vein of the body. (A) Computational fluid dynamics, and (B) bovine experiments (76+/-3.8 kg) were performed for comparative analyses, prior to (C) the first clinical application. For an 18F access, a given flow of 4 l/min (A) resulted in a pressure drop of 49 mmHg for smart cannula versus 140 mmHg for control. The corresponding Reynolds numbers are 680 versus 1170, respectively. (B) For an access of 28F, the maximal flow for smart cannula was 5.8+/-0.5 l/min versus 4.0+/-0.1 l/min for standard (P<0.0001), for 24F 5.5+/-0.6 l/min versus 3.2+/-0.4 l/min (P<0.0001), and for 20F 4.1+/-0.3 l/min versus 1.6+/-0.3 l/min (P<0.0001). The flow obtained with the smart cannula was 270+/-45% (20F), 172+/-26% (24F), and 134+/-13% (28F) of standard (one-way ANOVA, P=0.014). (C) First clinical application (1.42 m2) with a smart cannula showed 3.55 l/min (100% predicted) without additional fluids. All three assessment steps confirm the superior performance of the smart cannula design.

Angiotensin II receptor blockade: is there truly a benefit of adding an ACE inhibitor?

We assessed the blockade of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) achieved with 2 angiotensin (Ang) antagonists given either alone at different doses or with an ACE inhibitor. First, 20 normotensive subjects were randomly assigned to 100 mg OD losartan (LOS) or 80 mg OD telmisartan (TEL) for 1 week; during another week, the same doses of LOS and TEL were combined with 20 mg OD lisinopril. Then, 10 subjects were randomly assigned to 200 mg OD LOS and 160 mg OD TEL for 1 week and 100 mg BID LOS and 80 mg BID TEL during the second week. Blockade of the RAS was evaluated with the inhibition of the pressor effect of exogenous Ang I, an ex vivo receptor assay, and the changes in plasma Ang II. Trough blood pressure response to Ang I was blocked by 35+/-16% (mean+/-SD) with 100 mg OD LOS and by 36+/-13% with 80 mg OD TEL. When combined with lisinopril, blockade was 76+/-7% with LOS and 79+/-9% with TEL. With 200 mg OD LOS, trough blockade was 54+/-14%, but with 100 mg BID it increased to 77+/-8% (P<0.01). Telmisartan (160 mg OD and 80 mg BID) produced a comparable effect. Thus, at their maximal recommended doses, neither LOS nor TEL blocks the RAS for 24 hours; hence, the addition of an ACE inhibitor provides an additional blockade. A 24-hour blockade can be achieved with an angiotensin antagonist alone, provided higher doses or a BID regimen is used.

Association between conventional risk factors and different ultrasound-based markers of atherosclerosis at carotid and femoral levels in a middle-aged population.

Ultrasound detection of sub-clinical atherosclerosis (ATS) may help identify individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Most studies evaluated intima-media thickness (IMT) at carotid level. We compared the relationships between main cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and five indicators of ATS (IMT, mean and maximal plaque thickness, mean and maximal plaque area) at both carotid and femoral levels. Ultrasound was performed on 496 participants aged 45-64 years randomly selected from the general population of the Republic of Seychelles. 73.4 % participants had ≥ 1 plaque (IMT thickening ≥ 1.2 mm) at carotid level and 67.5 % at femoral level. Variance (adjusted R2) contributed by age, sex and CVRF (smoking, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes) in predicting any of the ATS markers was larger at femoral than carotid level. At both carotid and femoral levels, the association between CVRF and ATS was stronger based on plaque-based markers than IMT. Our findings show that the associations between CVRF and ATS markers were stronger at femoral than carotid level, and with plaque-based markers rather than IMT. Pending comparison of these markers using harder cardiovascular endpoints, our findings suggest that markers based on plaque morphology assessed at femoral artery level might be useful cardiovascular risk predictors.

Periodontitis and gingivitis in inflammatory bowel disease: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The oral cavity is frequently affected in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), especially in patients with Crohn's disease (CD). Periodontitis is thought to influence systemic autoimmune or inflammatory diseases. We aimed to analyze the relationship of periodontitis and gingivitis markers with specific disease characteristics in patients with IBD and to compare these data with healthy controls. METHODS: In a prospective 8-month study, systematic oral examinations were performed in 113 patients with IBD, including 69 patients with CD and 44 patients with ulcerative colitis. For all patients, a structured personal history was taken. One hundred thirteen healthy volunteers served as a control group. Oral examination focussed on established oral health markers for periodontitis (bleeding on probing, loss of attachment, and periodontal pocket depth) and gingivitis (papilla bleeding index). Additionally, visible oral lesions were documented. RESULTS: Both gingivitis and periodontitis markers were higher in patients with IBD than in healthy control. In univariate analysis and logistic regression analysis, perianal disease was a risk factor for periodontitis. Nonsmoking decreased the risk of having periodontitis. No clear association was found between clinical activity and periodontitis in IBD. In only the CD subgroup, high clinical activity (Harvey-Bradshaw index > 10) was associated with 1 periodontitis marker, the loss of attachment at sites of maximal periodontal pocket depth. Oral lesions besides periodontitis and gingivitis were not common, but nevertheless observed in about 10% of patients with IBD. CONCLUSIONS: IBD, and especially perianal disease in CD, is associated with periodontitis. Optimal therapeutic strategies should probably focus on treating both local oral and systemic inflammation.

Variability of ascending aorta diameter measurements as assessed with electrocardiography-gated multidetector computerized tomography and computer assisted diagnosis software.

Recently, morphometric measurements of the ascending aorta have been done with ECG-gated multidector computerized tomography (MDCT) to help the development of future novel transcatheter therapies (TCT); nevertheless, the variability of such measurements remains unknown. Thirty patients referred for ECG-gated CT thoracic angiography were evaluated. Continuous reformations of the ascending aorta, perpendicular to the centerline, were obtained automatically with a commercially available computer aided diagnosis (CAD). Then measurements of the maximal diameter were done with the CAD and manually by two observers (separately). Measurements were repeated one month later. The Bland-Altman method, Spearman coefficients, and a Wilcoxon signed-rank test were used to evaluate the variability, the correlation, and the differences between observers. The interobserver variability for maximal diameter between the two observers was up to 1.2 mm with limits of agreement [-1.5, +0.9] mm; whereas the intraobserver limits were [-1.2, +1.0] mm for the first observer and [-0.8, +0.8] mm for the second observer. The intraobserver CAD variability was 0.8 mm. The correlation was good between observers and the CAD (0.980-0.986); however, significant differences do exist (P<0.001). The maximum variability observed was 1.2 mm and should be considered in reports of measurements of the ascending aorta. The CAD is as reproducible as an experienced reader.

Trazodone increases arousal threshold in obstructive sleep apnoea.

A low arousal threshold is believed to predispose to breathing instability during sleep. The present authors hypothesised that trazodone, a nonmyorelaxant sleep-promoting agent, would increase the effort-related arousal threshold in obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) patients. In total, nine OSA patients, mean+/-sd age 49+/-9 yrs, apnoea/hypopnoea index 52+/-32 events.h(-1), were studied on 2 nights, one with trazodone at 100 mg and one with a placebo, in a double blind randomised fashion. While receiving continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), repeated arousals were induced: 1) by increasing inspired CO(2) and 2) by stepwise decreases in CPAP level. Respiratory effort was measured with an oesophageal balloon. End-tidal CO(2 )tension (P(ET,CO(2))) was monitored with a nasal catheter. During trazodone nights, compared with placebo nights, the arousals occurred at a higher P(ET,CO(2)) level (mean+/-sd 7.30+/-0.57 versus 6.62+/-0.64 kPa (54.9+/-4.3 versus 49.8+/-4.8 mmHg), respectively). When arousals were triggered by increasing inspired CO(2) level, the maximal oesophageal pressure swing was greater (19.4+/-4.0 versus 13.1+/-4.9 cm H(2)O) and the oesophageal pressure nadir before the arousals was lower (-5.1+/-4.7 versus -0.38+/-4.2 cm H(2)O) with trazodone. When arousals were induced by stepwise CPAP drops, the maximal oesophageal pressure swings before the arousals did not differ. Trazodone at 100 mg increased the effort-related arousal threshold in response to hypercapnia in obstructive sleep apnoea patients and allowed them to tolerate higher CO(2) levels.

Late removal of retrievable caval filters.

The advent of retrievable caval filters was a game changer in the sense, that the previously irreversible act of implanting a medical device into the main venous blood stream of the body requiring careful evaluation of the pros and cons prior to execution suddenly became a "reversible" procedure where potential hazards in the late future of the patient lost most of their weight at the time of decision making. This review was designed to assess the rate of success with late retrieval of so called retrievable caval filters in order to get some indication about reasonable implant duration with respect to relatively "easy" implant removal with conventional means, i.e., catheters, hooks and lassos. A PubMed search (www.pubmed.gov) was performed with the search term "cava filter retrieval after 30 days clinical", and 20 reports between 1994 and 2013 dealing with late retrieval of caval filters were identified, covering approximately 7,000 devices with 600 removed filters. The maximal duration of implant reported is 2,599 days and the maximal implant duration of removed filters is also 2,599 days. The maximal duration reported with standard retrieval techniques, i.e., catheter, hook and/or lasso, is 475 days, whereas for the retrievals after this period more sophisticated techniques including lasers, etc. were required. The maximal implant duration for series with 100% retrieval accounts for 84 days, which is equivalent to 12 weeks or almost 3 months. We conclude that retrievable caval filters often become permanent despite the initial decision of temporary use. However, such "forgotten" retrievable devices can still be removed with a great chance of success up to three months after implantation. Conventional percutaneous removal techniques may be sufficient up to sixteen months after implantation whereas more sophisticated catheter techniques have been shown to be successful up to 83 months or more than seven years of implant duration. Tilting, migrating, or misplaced devices should be removed early on, and replaced if indicated with a device which is both, efficient and retrievable.

Explicit ruin formulas for models with dependence among risks

We show that a simple mixing idea allows one to establish a number of explicit formulas for ruin probabilities and related quantities in collective risk models with dependence among claim sizes and among claim inter-occurrence times. Examples include compound Poisson risk models with completely monotone marginal claim size distributions that are dependent according to Archimedean survival copulas as well as renewal risk models with dependent inter-occurrence times.