Evolution de l'intensité moyenne et de la fréquence des précipitations en Suisse de 1900 à 2009

Les précipitations moyennes et les nombres de jours de pluie par saison et par an ont été analysés pour 151 séries de mesures pluviométriques en Suisse de 1900 à 2009. Ces analyses révèlent que les précipitations moyennes ont augmenté durant le 20ème siècle pour toutes les saisons, sauf en été. Cette hausse est la plus marquée en hiver, surtout dans le Nord des Alpes et en Valais. Les nombres de jours de pluie ont également augmenté en hiver, mais moins fortement que les précipitations moyennes, alors qu'ils tendent à diminuer très légèrement durant les autres saisons. On en déduit que l'intensité moyenne des précipitations s'est accrue en Suisse durant le 20ème siècle en toutes saisons.

Effet des précipitations maximales probables (PMP) et de la fonte des neiges sur la crue maximale probable (PMF) dans un bassin versant alpin suisse

Cet article contribue au modèle d'estimation des crues extrêmes, utilisant une pluie distribuée dans le temps et dans l'espace, à laide des nuages et de la direction du vent. Une méthode de distribution spatio-temporelle de la pluie a d'abord été réalisée. Le modèle utilisant des événements de crue réelle mesurée sur un bassin test de la Suisse a ensuite été calibré. Enfin, la modélisation de la fonte des neiges, basée sur le transfert de chaleur est décrite en tenant compte de l'hypothèse que toutes les sources de chaleur (rayonnement solaire, chaleur du sol et de l'air) agissent lentement sauf la pluie, qui, même très faible, peut provoquer des inondations considérables. Ces facteurs ajoutés rendent le modèle développé plus proche de la réalité. Ils offrent une flexibilité dans les conditions initiales auxquelles s'ajoutent la durée de la pluie, la vitesse et la direction du vent et fournissent ainsi une image complète sur l'hydrogramme de crue.

Increased alpha activity and modulations of fronto-parietal balance during motor transitions in the elderly

A hallmark of aging is the sensorimotor deficit, characterized by an increased reaction time and a reduction of motor abilities. Some mechanisms such as motor inhibition deteriorate with aging because of neuronal density alterations and modifications of connections between brain regions. These deficits may be compensated throughout a recruitment of additional areas. Studies have shown that old adults have increased difficulty in performing bimanual coordination tasks compared with young adults. In contrast, motor switching is poorly documented and is expected to engage increasing resources in the elderly. The present study examines performances and electro-cortical correlates of motor switching in young and elderly adults.

Assessment of debris-flow susceptibility at medium-scale in the Barcelonnette Basin, France

Debris flows are among the most dangerous processes in mountainous areas due to their rapid rate of movement and long runout zone. Sudden and rather unexpected impacts produce not only damages to buildings and infrastructure but also threaten human lives. Medium- to regional-scale susceptibility analyses allow the identification of the most endangered areas and suggest where further detailed studies have to be carried out. Since data availability for larger regions is mostly the key limiting factor, empirical models with low data requirements are suitable for first overviews. In this study a susceptibility analysis was carried out for the Barcelonnette Basin, situated in the southern French Alps. By means of a methodology based on empirical rules for source identification and the empirical angle of reach concept for the 2-D runout computation, a worst-case scenario was first modelled. In a second step, scenarios for high, medium and low frequency events were developed. A comparison with the footprints of a few mapped events indicates reasonable results but suggests a high dependency on the quality of the digital elevation model. This fact emphasises the need for a careful interpretation of the results while remaining conscious of the inherent assumptions of the model used and quality of the input data.

Etendue des prestations de l'assurance-maladie sociale : le catalogue des prestations est- il suffisant pour que tous accèdent à des soins de qualité ?

Le projet "prestations de l'assurance-maladie sociale" est l'un des projets partiels élaborés par l'Office fédéral des assurances sociales (OFAS) dans le cadre de l'analyse des effets de la LAMal. Deux approches complémentaires sont adoptées pour répondre à la question du caractère suffisant du "catalogue" suisse des prestations à charge de l'assurance-maladie sociale: d'une part, la comparaison des "catalogues" des prestations remboursées en Suisse et à l'étranger et, d'autre part, l'examen de la couverture par le "catalogue" des prestations de problèmes de santé utilisés comme traceurs. [Table des matières] 1.1. Contexte. 1.2. Définition et limites du mandat. 1.3. Le "catalogue" des prestations : composition actuelle, participation d'autres assurances sociales et des pouvoirs publics. 1.4. Approches méthodologiques : comparaison internationale, étude de conditions-traceurs. 2. Analyse par comparaison internationale. 2.1. Recherche de documentation et collaborations. 2.2. Résultats : Suisse, France, Allemagne, Israël, Pays-Bas, Luxembourg, comparaison internationale des prestations générales, par catégorie, et des prestations spéciales. 3. Analyse par conditions traceurs. 3.1. Stratégie de la recherche documentaire. 3.2. Critères de choix des documents. 3.3. Variations méthodologiques et particularités. 3.4. Résultats : Accident vasculaire cérébral (ischémique), fracture de hanche, obésité, leucémie aigüe (LA), grossesse normale et nouveau-né en bonne santé. 3.5. Discussion.

Trends in lung cancer among young European women: the rising epidemic in France and Spain.

Lung cancer mortality in young women in the European Union (EU) has steadily increased until the mid 1990 s and has levelled off thereafter, but trends have been heterogeneous in various countries. We analyzed therefore age-standardized trends in lung cancer mortality in young women (20-44) for the 6 major European countries, using joinpoint regression. In the early 1970s the highest lung cancer mortality in young women was in the UK (2.1/100,000). UK rates, however, steadily declined and in 2000-2004 they were the lowest of all 6 major EU countries (1.2/100,000). The second lowest rate in 2000-2002 was in Italy, whose rates remained around 1.1/100,000 between 1970 and 1994, and increased to 1.4 thereafter. In Germany and Poland, lung cancer rates in young women rose from 0.8-1.0/100,000 in the early 1970s to 1.7-1.9 in the mid 1990 s and levelled off during the last decade. Major rises over recent years were observed in France (from 0.8/100,000 in 1985-1989 to 2.2 in 2000-2003) and in Spain (from 0.8 in the 1985-1989 to 1.7 in 2000-2004). Thus, France showed both the highest rate observed over the last 3 decades and the largest rise over the last 2 decades. Since recent trends in the young give relevant information to the likely future trends in middle age, the female lung cancer epidemic is likely to expand in southern Europe from the current rates of 5.0/100,000 in Spain and 7.7 in France to approach 20/100,000 within the next 2-3 decades. Urgent interventions for smoking cessation in women are therefore required.

Please die during office hours : periodicity of cardiovascular events in switzerland between 1969 and 2007

Purpose: to evaluate and compare the periodical patterns of death from cardiovascular disease (CVD), including acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke in the Swiss population between the years 1969 and 2007.¦Methods: Swiss mortality database for the period of 1969- 2007 (2'362'430 deaths overall). The number of deaths due to CVD, AMI and stroke according to the time of day, day of the week and month were assessed, overall and after dividing the events according to gender and age (< 65 or ≥65 years old).¦Results: In general and for all four subgroups according to age and sex, there is a daily variation in the number of deaths with a first peak in the morning (8h00 -12h00) and a smaller second peak in the late afternoon (14h - 18h). Both males and females have similar hourly patterns, although the magnitude of the difference diminishes in older patients particularly for people who die from stroke. For the weekly variation, there seems to be a significant trend only in the younger population with the lowest mortality rates on Sunday and the highest on Mondays for all diseases. When it comes to seasonal variation according to month, the trend is more significant in the elder patients with the highest death rates during the winter months (+31%) and the lowest in the summer (July/August).¦Conclusion: There is a timely pattern for CVD, AMI and stroke deaths in Switzerland. This pattern changes according to the age and sex of the patients. Knowing this trend, its triggering factors and consequences, perhaps there could be measures put in place to prevent, diagnose and treat the population which is the most vulnerable at certain times.