Quantifying rates of landscape evolution and tectonic processes by thermochronology and numerical modeling of crustal heat transport using PECUBE

PECUBE is a three-dimensional thermal-kinematic code capable of solving the heat production-diffusion-advection equation under a temporally varying surface boundary condition. It was initially developed to assess the effects of time-varying surface topography (relief) on low-temperature thermochronological datasets. Thermochronometric ages are predicted by tracking the time-temperature histories of rock-particles ending up at the surface and by combining these with various age-prediction models. In the decade since its inception, the PECUBE code has been under continuous development as its use became wider and addressed different tectonic-geomorphic problems. This paper describes several major recent improvements in the code, including its integration with an inverse-modeling package based on the Neighborhood Algorithm, the incorporation of fault-controlled kinematics, several different ways to address topographic and drainage change through time, the ability to predict subsurface (tunnel or borehole) data, prediction of detrital thermochronology data and a method to compare these with observations, and the coupling with landscape-evolution (or surface-process) models. Each new development is described together with one or several applications, so that the reader and potential user can clearly assess and make use of the capabilities of PECUBE. We end with describing some developments that are currently underway or should take place in the foreseeable future. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analyzing complex rock slope deformation at Stampa, western Norway, by integrating geomorphology, kinematics and numerical modeling

The unstable rock slope, Stampa, above the village of Flåm, Norway, shows signs of both active and postglacial gravitational deformation over an area of 11 km2. Detailed structural field mapping, annual differential Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) surveys, as well as geomorphic analysis of high-resolution digital elevation models based on airborne and terrestrial laser scanning indicate that slope deformation is complex and spatially variable. Numerical modeling was used to investigate the influence of former rockslide activity and to better understand the failure mechanism. Field observations, kinematic analysis and numerical modeling indicate a strong structural control of the unstable area. Based on the integration of the above analyses, we propose that the failure mechanism is dominated by (1) a toppling component, (2) subsiding bilinear wedge failure and (3) planar sliding along the foliation at the toe of the unstable slope. Using differential GNSS, 18 points were measured annually over a period of up to 6 years. Two of these points have an average yearly movement of around 10 mm/year. They are located at the frontal cliff on almost completely detached blocks with volumes smaller than 300,000 m3. Large fractures indicate deep-seated gravitational deformation of volumes reaching several 100 million m3, but the movement rates in these areas are below 2 mm/year. Two different lobes of prehistoric rock slope failures were dated with terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides. While the northern lobe gave an average age of 4,300 years BP, the southern one resulted in two different ages (2,400 and 12,000 years BP), which represent most likely multiple rockfall events. This reflects the currently observable deformation style with unstable blocks in the northern part in between Joasete and Furekamben and no distinct blocks but a high rockfall activity around Ramnanosi in the south. With a relative susceptibility analysis it is concluded that small collapses of blocks along the frontal cliff will be more frequent. Larger collapses of free-standing blocks along the cliff with volumes > 100,000 m3, thus large enough to reach the fjord, cannot be ruled out. A larger collapse involving several million m3 is presently considered of very low likelihood.

Stoneley wave modeling in heterogeneous porous media with viscous pore fluids

We implemented Biot-type porous wave equations in a pseudo-spectral numerical modeling algorithm for the simulation of Stoneley waves in porous media. Fourier and Chebyshev methods are used to compute the spatial derivatives along the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. To prevent from overly short time steps due to the small grid spacing at the top and bottom of the model as a consequence of the Chebyshev operator, the mesh is stretched in the vertical direction. As a large benefit, the Chebyshev operator allows for an explicit treatment of interfaces. Boundary conditions can be implemented with a characteristics approach. The characteristic variables are evaluated at zero viscosity. We use this approach to model seismic wave propagation at the interface between a fluid and a porous medium. Each medium is represented by a different mesh and the two meshes are connected through the above described characteristics domain-decomposition method. We show an experiment for sealed pore boundary conditions, where we first compare the numerical solution to an analytical solution. We then show the influence of heterogeneity and viscosity of the pore fluid on the propagation of the Stoneley wave and surface waves in general.

Metamorphism and kinetics in the Torres del Paine contact aureole

Contact aureoles provide an excellent geologic environment to study the mechanisms of metamorphic reactions in a natural system. The Torres del Paine (TP) intrusion is one of the most spectacular natural laboratories because of its excellent outcrop conditions. It formed in a period from 12.59 to 12.43 Ma and consists of three large granite and four smaller mafic batches. The oldest granite is on top, the youngest at the bottom of the granitic complex, and the granites overly the mafic laccolith. The TP intruded at a depth of 2-3 km into regional metamorphic anchizone to greenschist facies pelites, sandstones, and conglomerates of the Cerro Toro and Punta Barrosa formations. It formed a thin contact aureole of 150-400 m width. This thesis focuses on the reaction kinetics of the mineral cordierite in the contact aureole using quantitative textural analysis methods. First cordierite was formed from chlorite break¬down (zone I, ca. 480 °C, 750 bar). The second cordierite forming reaction was the muscovite break-down, which is accompanied by a modal decrease in biotite and the appearance of k- feldspar (zone II, 540-550 °C, 750 bar). Crystal sizes of the roundish, poikiloblastic cordierites were determined from microscope thin section images by manually marking each crystal. Images were then automatically processed with Matlab. The correction for the intersection probability of each crystal radius yields the crystal size distribution in the rock. Samples from zone I below the laccolith have the largest crystals (0.09 mm). Cordierites from zone II are smaller, with a maximum crystal radius of 0.057 mm. Rocks from zone II have a larger number of small cordierite crystals than rocks from zone I. A combination of these quantitative analysis with numerical modeling of nucleation and growth, is used to infer nucleation and growth parameters which are responsible for the observed mineral textures. For this, the temperature-time paths of the samples need to be known. The thermal history is complex because the main body of the intrusion was formed by several intrusive batches. The emplacement mechanism and duration of each batch can influence the thermal structure in the aureole. A possible subdivision of batches in smaller increments, so called pulses, will focus heat at the side of the intrusion. Focusing all pulses on one side increases the contact aureole size on that side, but decreases it on the other side. It forms a strongly asymmetric contact aureole. Detailed modeling shows that the relative thicknesses of the TP contact aureole above and below the intrusion (150 and 400 m) are best explained by a rapid emplacement of at least the oldest granite batch. Nevertheless, temperatures are significantly too low in all models, compared to observed mineral assemblages in the hornfelses. Hence, an other important thermal mechanisms needs to take place in the host rock. Clastic minerals in the immature sediments outside the contact aureole are hydrated due to small amounts of expelled fluids during contact metamorphism. This leads to a temperature increase of up to 50 °C. The origin of fluids can be traced by stable isotopes. Whole rock stable isotope data (6D and δ180) and chlorine concentrations in biotite document that the TP intrusion induced only very small amounts of fluid flow. Oxygen whole rock data show δ180 values between 9.0 and 10.0 %o within the first 5 m of the contact. Values increase to 13.0 - 15.0 %o further away from the intrusion. Whole rock 6D values display a more complex zoning. First, host rock values (-90 to -70 %o) smoothly decrease towards the contact by ca. 20 %o, up to a distance of ca. 150 m. This is followed by an increase of ca. 20 %o within the innermost 150 m of the aureole (-97.0 to -78 %o at the contact). The initial decrease in 6D values is interpreted to be due to Rayleigh fractionation accompanying the dehydration reactions forming cordierite, while the final increase reflects infiltration of water-rich fluids from the intrusion. An over-estimate on the quantity and the corresponding thermal effect yields a temperature increase of less than 30 °C. This suggests that fluid flow might have contributed only for a small amount to the thermal evolution of the system. A combination of the numerical growth model with the thermal model, including the hydration reaction enthalpies but neglecting fluid flow and incremental growth, can be used to numerically reproduce the observed cordierite textures in the contact aureole. This yields kinetic parameters which indicate fast cordierite crystallization before the thermal peak in the inner aureole, and continued reaction after the thermal peak in the outermost aureole. Only small temperature dependencies of the kinetic parameters seem to be needed to explain the obtained crystal size data. - Les auréoles de contact offrent un cadre géologique privilégié pour l'étude des mécanismes de réactions métamorphiques associés à la mise en place de magmas dans la croûte terrestre. Par ses conditions d'affleurements excellentes, l'intrusion de Torres del Paine représente un site exceptionnel pour améliorer nos connaissances de ces processus. La formation de cette intrusion composée de trois injections granitiques principales et de quatre injections mafiques de volume inférieur couvre une période allant de 12.50 à 12.43 Ma. Le plus vieux granite forme la partie sommitale de l'intrusion alors que l'injection la plus jeune s'observe à la base du complexe granitique; les granites recouvrent la partie mafique du laccolite. L'intrusion du Torres del Paine s'est mise en place a 2-3 km de profondeur dans un encaissant métamorphique. Cet encaissant est caractérisé par un métamorphisme régional de faciès anchizonal à schiste vert et est composé de pélites, de grès, et des conglomérats des formations du Cerro Toro et Punta Barrosa. La mise en place des différentes injections granitiques a généré une auréole de contact de 150-400 m d'épaisseur autour de l'intrusion. Cette thèse se concentre sur la cinétique de réaction associée à la formation de la cordiérite dans les auréoles de contact en utilisant des méthodes quantitatives d'analyses de texture. On observe plusieurs générations de cordiérite dans l'auréole de contact. La première cordiérite est formée par la décomposition de la chlorite (zone I, environ 480 °C, 750 bar), alors qu'une seconde génération de cordiérite est associée à la décomposition de la muscovite, laquelle est accompagnée par une diminution modale de la teneur en biotite et l'apparition de feldspath potassique (zone II, 540-550 °C, 750 bar). Les tailles des cristaux de cordiérites arrondies et blastic ont été déterminées en utilisant des images digitalisées des lames minces et en marquant individuellement chaque cristal. Les images sont ensuite traitées automatiquement à l'aide du programme Matlab. La correction de la probabilité d'intersection en fonction du rayon des cristaux permet de déterminer la distribution de la taille des cristaux dans la roche. Les échantillons de la zone I, en dessous du lacolite, sont caractérisés par de relativement grands cristaux (0.09 mm). Les cristaux de cordiérite de la zone II sont plus petits, avec un rayon maximal de 0.057 mm. Les roches de la zone II présentent un plus grand nombre de petits cristaux de cordiérite que les roches de la zone I. Une combinaison de ces analyses quantitatives avec un modèle numérique de nucléation et croissance a été utilisée pour déduire les paramètres de nucléation et croissance contrôlant les différentes textures minérales observées. Pour développer le modèle de nucléation et de croissance, il est nécessaire de connaître le chemin température - temps des échantillons. L'histoire thermique est complexe parce que l'intrusion est produite par plusieurs injections successives. En effet, le mécanisme d'emplace¬ment et la durée de chaque injection peuvent influencer la structure thermique dans l'auréole. Une subdivision des injections en plus petits incréments, appelés puises, permet de concentrer la chaleur dans les bords de l'intrusion. Une mise en place préférentielle de ces puises sur un côté de l'intrusion modifie l'apport thermique et influence la taille de l'auréole de contact produite, auréole qui devient asymétrique. Dans le cas de la première injection de granite, une modélisation détaillée montre que l'épaisseur relative de l'auréole de contact de Torres del Paine au-dessus et en dessous de l'intrusion (150 et 400 m) est mieux expliquée par un emplacement rapide du granite. Néanmoins, les températures calculées dans l'auréole de con¬tact sont trop basses pour que les modèles thermiques soient cohérants par rapport à la taille de cette auréole. Ainsi, un autre mecanisme exothermique est nécessaire pour permettre à la roche encais¬sante de produire les assemblages observés. L'observation des roches encaissantes entourant les granites montre que les minéraux clastiques dans les sédiments immatures au-dehors de l'auréole sont hydratés suite à la petite quantité de fluide expulsée durant le métamorphisme de contact et/ou la mise en place des granites. Les réactions d'hydratation peuvent permettre une augmentation de la température jusqu'à 50 °C. Afin de déterminer l'origine des fluides, une étude isotopique de roches de l'auréole de contact a été entreprise. Les isotopes stables d'oxygène et d'hydrogène sur la roche totale ainsi que la concentration en chlore dans la biotite indiquent que la mise en place des granites du Torres del Paine n'induit qu'une circulation de fluide limitée. Les données d'oxygène sur roche totale montrent des valeurs δ180 entre 9.0 et 10.0%o au sein des cinq premiers mètres du contact. Les valeurs augmentent jusqu'à 13.0 - 15.0 plus on s'éloigne de l'intrusion. Les valeurs 5D sur roche totale montrent une zonation plus complexe. Les valeurs de la roche encaissante (-90 à -70%o) diminuent progressivement d'environ 20%o depuis l'extérieur de l'auréole jusqu'à une distance d'environ 150 m du granite. Cette diminution est suivie par une augmentation d'environ 20%o au sein des 150 mètres les plus proches du contact (-97.0 à -78%o au contact). La diminution initiale des valeurs de 6D est interprétée comme la conséquence du fractionnement de Rayleigh qui accompagne les réactions de déshydratation formant la cordiérite, alors que l'augmentation finale reflète l'infiltration de fluide riche en eau venant de l'intrusion. A partir de ces résultats, le volume du fluide issu du granite ainsi que son effet thermique a pu être estimé. Ces résultats montrent que l'augmentation de température associée à ces fluides est limitée à un maximum de 30 °C. La contribution de ces fluides dans le bilan thermique est donc faible. Ces différents résultats nous ont permis de créer un modèle thermique associé à la for¬mation de l'auréole de contact qui intègre la mise en place rapide du granite et les réactions d'hydratation lors du métamorphisme. L'intégration de ce modèle thermique dans le modèle numérique de croissance minérale nous permet de calculer les textures des cordiérites. Cepen¬dant, ce modèle est dépendant de la vitesse de croissance et de nucléation de ces cordiérites. Nous avons obtenu ces paramètres en comparant les textures prédites par le modèle et les textures observées dans les roches de l'auréole de contact du Torres del Paine. Les paramètres cinétiques extraits du modèle optimisé indiquent une cristallisation rapide de la cordiérite avant le pic thermique dans la partie interne de l'auréole, et une réaction continue après le pic thermique dans la partie la plus externe de l'auréole. Seules de petites dépendances de température des paramètres de cinétique semblent être nécessaires pour expliquer les don¬nées obtenues sur la distribution des tailles de cristaux. Ces résultats apportent un éclairage nouveau sur la cinétique qui contrôle les réactions métamorphiques.

Structure et évolution thermique de la croûte supérieure des chaînes de subduction : approches thermologique et modélisation numérique, dans les North Cascades (U.S.A) et de la zone de faille Motagua (Guatemala)

Cette thèse cible l'étude de la structure thermique de la croûte supérieure (<10km) dans les arcs magmatiques continentaux, et son influence sur l'enregistrement thermochronologique de leur exhumation et de leur évolution topographique. Nous portons notre regard sur deux chaînes de montagne appartenant aux Cordillères Américaines : Les Cascades Nord (USA) et la zone de faille Motagua (Guatemala). L'approche utilisée est axée sur la thermochronologie (U-Th-Sm)/He sur apatite et zircon, couplée avec la modélisation numérique de la structure thermique de la croûte. Nous mettons en évidence la variabilité à la fois spatiale et temporelle du gradient géothermique, et attirons l'attention du lecteur sur l'importance de prendre en compte la multitude des processus géologiques perturbant la structure thermique dans les chaînes de type cordillère, c'est à dire formées lors de la subduction océanique sous un continent.Une nouvelle approche est ainsi développée pour étudier et contraindre la perturbation thermique autour des chambres magmatiques. Deux profiles âge-elevation (U-Th-Sm)/He sur apatite et zircon, ont été collectées 7 km au sud du batholithe de Chilliwack, Cascades Nord. Les résultats montrent une variabilité spatiale et temporelle du gradient géothermique lors de l'emplacement magmatique qui peut être contrainte et séparé de l'exhumation. Durant l'emplacement de l'intrusion, la perturbation thermique y atteint un état d'équilibre (-80-100 °C/km) qui est fonction du flux de magma et de ia distance à la source du magma, puis rejoint 40 °C/km à la fin du processus d'emplacement magmatique.Quelques nouvelles données (U-Th)/He, replacées dans une compilation des données existantes dans les Cascades Nord, indiquent une vitesse d'exhumation constante (-100 m/Ma) dans le temps et l'espace entre 35 Ma et 2 Ma, associée à un soulèvement uniforme de la chaîne contrôlé par l'emplacement de magma dans la croûte durant toute l'activité de l'arc. Par contre, après ~2 Ma, le versant humide de la chaîne est affecté par une accélération des taux d'exhumation, jusqu'à 3 km de croûte y sont érodés. Les glaciations ont un triple effet sur l'érosion de cette chaîne: (1) augmentation des vitesses d'érosion, d'exhumation et de soulèvement la où les précipitations sont suffisantes, (2) limitation de l'altitude contrôlé par la position de Γ Ε LA, (3) élargissement du versant humide et contraction du versant aride de la chaîne.Les modifications des réseaux de drainage sont des processus de surface souvent sous-estimés au profil d'événements climatiques ou tectoniques. Nous proposons une nouvelle approche couplant une analyse géomorphologique, des données thermochronologiques de basse température ((U-Th-Sm)/He sur apatite et zircon), et l'utilisation de modélisation numérique thermo-cinématique pour les mettre en évidence et les dater; nous testons cette approche sur la gorge de la Skagit river dans les North Cascades.De nouvelles données (U-Th)/He sur zircons, complétant les données existantes, montrent que le déplacement horizontal le long de la faille transformante continentale Motagua, la limite des plaques Caraïbe/Amérique du Nord, a juxtaposé un bloc froid, le bloc Maya (s.s.), contre un bloque chaud, le bloc Chortis (s.s.) originellement en position d'arc. En plus de donner des gammes d'âges thermochronologiques très différents des deux côtés de la faille, le déplacement horizontal rapide (~2 cm/a) a produit un fort échange thermique latéral, résultant en un réchauffement du côté froid et un refroidissement du côté chaud de la zone de faille de Motagua.Enfin des données (U-Th-Sm)/He sur apatite témoignent d'un refroidissement Oligocène enregistré uniquement dans la croûte supérieure de la bordure nord de la zone de faille Motagua. Nous tenterons ultérieurement de reproduire ce découplage vertical de la structure thermique par la modélisation de la formation d'un bassin transtensif et de circulation de fluides le long de la faille de Motagua. - This thesis focuses on the influence of the dynamic thermal structure of the upper crust (<10km) on the thermochronologic record of the exhumational and topographic history of magmatic continental arcs. Two mountain belts from the American Cordillera are studied: the North Cascades (USA) and the Motagua fault zone (Guatemala). I use a combined approach coupling apatite and zircon (U-Th-Sm}/He thermochronology and thermo- kinematic numerical modelling. This study highlights the temporal and spatial variability of the geothermal gradient and the importance to take into account the different geological processes that perturb the thermal structure of Cordilleran-type mountain belts (i.e. mountain belts related to oceanic subduction underneath a continent}.We integrate apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He data with numerical thermo-kinematic models to study the relative effects of magmatic and surface processes on the thermal evolution of the crust and cooling patterns in the Cenozoic North Cascades arc (Washington State, USA). Two age-elevation profiles that are located 7 km south of the well-studied Chiliiwack intrusions shows that spatial and temporal variability in geothermal gradients linked to magma emplacement can be contrained and separated from exhumation processes. During Chiliiwack batholith emplacement at -35-20 Ma, the geothermal gradient of the country rocks increased to a very high steady-state value (80-100°C/km), which is likely a function of magma flux and the distance from the magma source area. Including temporally varying geothermal gradients in the analysis allows quantifying the thermal perturbation around magmatic intrusions and retrieving a relatively simple denudation history from the data.The synthesis of new and previously published (U-Th)/He data reveals that denudation of the Northern Cascades is spatially and temporally constant at -100 m/Ma between ~32 and ~2 Ma, which likely reflects uplift due to magmatic crustal thickening since the initiation of the Cenozoic stage of the continental magmatic arc. In contrast, the humid flank of the North Cascades is affected by a ten-fold acceleration in exhumation rate at ~2 Ma, which we interpret as forced by the initiation of glaciations; around 3 km of crust have been eroded since that time. Glaciations have three distinct effects on the dynamics of this mountain range: (1) they increase erosion, exhumation and uplift rates where precipitation rates are sufficient to drive efficient glacial erosion; (2) they efficiently limit the elevation of the range; (3) they lead to widening of the humid flank and contraction of the arid flank of the belt.Drainage reorganizations constitute an important agent of landscape evolution that is often underestimated to the benefit of tectonic or climatic events. We propose a new method that integrates geomorphology, low-temperature thermochronometry (apatite and zircon {U-Th-Sm)/He), and 3D numerical thermal-kinematic modelling to detect and date drainage instability producing recent gorge incision, and apply this approach to the Skagit River Gorge, North Cascades.Two zircon (U-Th)/He age-elevation profiles sampled on both sides of the Motagua Fault Zone (MFZ), the boundary between the North American and the Caribbean plates, combined with published thermochronological data show that strike-slip displacement has juxtaposed the cold Maya block (s.s.) against the hot, arc derived, Chortis block (s.s ), producing different age patterns on both sides of the fault and short-wavelength lateral thermal exchange, resulting in recent heating of the cool side and cooling of the hot side of the MFZ.Finally, an apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He age-elevation profile records rapid cooling at -35 Ma localized only in the upper crust along the northern side of the Motagua fault zone. We will try to reproduce these data by modeling the thermal perturbation resulting from the formation of a transtensional basin and of fluid flow activity along a crustal- scale strike-slip fault.

Patterns of gravity induced aggregate migration during casting of fluid concretes

In this paper, aggregate migration patterns during fluid concrete castings are studied through experiments, dimensionless approach and numerical modeling. The experimental results obtained on two beams show that gravity induced migration is primarily affecting the coarsest aggregates resulting in a decrease of coarse aggregates volume fraction with the horizontal distance from the pouring point and in a puzzling vertical multi-layer structure. The origin of this multi layer structure is discussed and analyzed with the help of numerical simulations of free surface flow. Our results suggest that it finds its origin in the non Newtonian nature of fresh concrete and that increasing casting rate shall decrease the magnitude of gravity induced particle migration. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validity of the acoustic approximation in full-waveform seismic crosshole tomography

Acoustic waveform inversions are an increasingly popular tool for extracting subsurface information from seismic data. They are computationally much more efficient than elastic inversions. Naturally, an inherent disadvantage is that any elastic effects present in the recorded data are ignored in acoustic inversions. We investigate the extent to which elastic effects influence seismic crosshole data. Our numerical modeling studies reveal that in the presence of high contrast interfaces, at which P-to-S conversions occur, elastic effects can dominate the seismic sections, even for experiments involving pressure sources and pressure receivers. Comparisons of waveform inversion results using a purely acoustic algorithm on synthetic data that is either acoustic or elastic, show that subsurface models comprising small low-to-medium contrast (?30%) structures can be successfully resolved in the acoustic approximation. However, in the presence of extended high-contrast anomalous bodies, P-to-S-conversions may substantially degrade the quality of the tomographic images. In particular, extended low-velocity zones are difficult to image. Likewise, relatively small low-velocity features are unresolved, even when advanced a priori information is included. One option for mitigating elastic effects is data windowing, which suppresses later arriving seismic arrivals, such as shear waves. Our tests of this approach found it to be inappropriate because elastic effects are also included in earlier arriving wavetrains. Furthermore, data windowing removes later arriving P-wave phases that may provide critical constraints on the tomograms. Finally, we investigated the extent to which acoustic inversions of elastic data are useful for time-lapse analyses of high contrast engineered structures, for which accurate reconstruction of the subsurface structure is not as critical as imaging differential changes between sequential experiments. Based on a realistic scenario for monitoring a radioactive waste repository, we demonstrated that acoustic inversions of elastic data yield substantial distortions of the tomograms and also unreliable information on trends in the velocity changes.

Multimodel inference and multimodel averaging in empirical modeling of occupational exposure levels.

Empirical modeling of exposure levels has been popular for identifying exposure determinants in occupational hygiene. Traditional data-driven methods used to choose a model on which to base inferences have typically not accounted for the uncertainty linked to the process of selecting the final model. Several new approaches propose making statistical inferences from a set of plausible models rather than from a single model regarded as 'best'. This paper introduces the multimodel averaging approach described in the monograph by Burnham and Anderson. In their approach, a set of plausible models are defined a priori by taking into account the sample size and previous knowledge of variables influent on exposure levels. The Akaike information criterion is then calculated to evaluate the relative support of the data for each model, expressed as Akaike weight, to be interpreted as the probability of the model being the best approximating model given the model set. The model weights can then be used to rank models, quantify the evidence favoring one over another, perform multimodel prediction, estimate the relative influence of the potential predictors and estimate multimodel-averaged effects of determinants. The whole approach is illustrated with the analysis of a data set of 1500 volatile organic compound exposure levels collected by the Institute for work and health (Lausanne, Switzerland) over 20 years, each concentration having been divided by the relevant Swiss occupational exposure limit and log-transformed before analysis. Multimodel inference represents a promising procedure for modeling exposure levels that incorporates the notion that several models can be supported by the data and permits to evaluate to a certain extent model selection uncertainty, which is seldom mentioned in current practice.

Segmentation and grid generation for numerical simulations of vad connections with patient-specific data

Objectives: We are interested in the numerical simulation of the anastomotic region comprised between outflow canula of LVAD and the aorta. Segmenta¬tion, geometry reconstruction and grid generation from patient-specific data remain an issue because of the variable quality of DICOM images, in particular CT-scan (e.g. metallic noise of the device, non-aortic contrast phase). We pro¬pose a general framework to overcome this problem and create suitable grids for numerical simulations.Methods: Preliminary treatment of images is performed by reducing the level window and enhancing the contrast of the greyscale image using contrast-limited adaptive histogram equalization. A gradient anisotropic diffusion filter is applied to reduce the noise. Then, watershed segmentation algorithms and mathematical morphology filters allow reconstructing the patient geometry. This is done using the InsightToolKit library (www.itk.org). Finally the Vascular Model¬ing ToolKit (www.vmtk.org) and gmsh (www.geuz.org/gmsh) are used to create the meshes for the fluid (blood) and structure (arterial wall, outflow canula) and to a priori identify the boundary layers. The method is tested on five different patients with left ventricular assistance and who underwent a CT-scan exam.Results: This method produced good results in four patients. The anastomosis area is recovered and the generated grids are suitable for numerical simulations. In one patient the method failed to produce a good segmentation because of the small dimension of the aortic arch with respect to the image resolution.Conclusions: The described framework allows the use of data that could not be otherwise segmented by standard automatic segmentation tools. In particular the computational grids that have been generated are suitable for simulations that take into account fluid-structure interactions. Finally the presented method features a good reproducibility and fast application.

Orthotropic active strain models for the numerical simulation of cardiac biomechanics

An active strain formulation for orthotropic constitutive laws arising in cardiac mechanics modeling is introduced and studied. The passive mechanical properties of the tissue are described by the Holzapfel-Ogden relation. In the active strain formulation, the Euler-Lagrange equations for minimizing the total energy are written in terms of active and passive deformation factors, where the active part is assumed to depend, at the cell level, on the electrodynamics and on the specific orientation of the cardiac cells. The well-posedness of the linear system derived from a generic Newton iteration of the original problem is analyzed and different mechanical activation functions are considered. In addition, the active strain formulation is compared with the classical active stress formulation from both numerical and modeling perspectives. Taylor-Hood and MINI finite elements are employed to discretize the mechanical problem. The results of several numerical experiments show that the proposed formulation is mathematically consistent and is able to represent the main key features of the phenomenon, while allowing savings in computational costs.

Modeling complex wells with the multi-scale finite-volume method

In this paper, an extension of the multi-scale finite-volume (MSFV) method is devised, which allows to Simulate flow and transport in reservoirs with complex well configurations. The new framework fits nicely into the data Structure of the original MSFV method,and has the important property that large patches covering the whole well are not required. For each well. an additional degree of freedom is introduced. While the treatment of pressure-constraint wells is trivial (the well-bore reference pressure is explicitly specified), additional equations have to be solved to obtain the unknown well-bore pressure of rate-constraint wells. Numerical Simulations of test cases with multiple complex wells demonstrate the ability of the new algorithm to capture the interference between the various wells and the reservoir accurately. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerical simulation of ambient seismic wavefield modification caused by pore-fluid effects in an oil reservoir

We have modeled numerically the seismic response of a poroelastic inclusion with properties applicable to an oil reservoir that interacts with an ambient wavefield. The model includes wave-induced fluid flow caused by pressure differences between mesoscopic-scale (i.e., in the order of centimeters to meters) heterogeneities. We used a viscoelastic approximation on the macroscopic scale to implement the attenuation and dispersion resulting from this mesoscopic-scale theory in numerical simulations of wave propagation on the kilometer scale. This upscaling method includes finite-element modeling of wave-induced fluid flow to determine effective seismic properties of the poroelastic media, such as attenuation of P- and S-waves. The fitted, equivalent, viscoelastic behavior is implemented in finite-difference wave propagation simulations. With this two-stage process, we model numerically the quasi-poroelastic wave-propagation on the kilometer scale and study the impact of fluid properties and fluid saturation on the modeled seismic amplitudes. In particular, we addressed the question of whether poroelastic effects within an oil reservoir may be a plausible explanation for low-frequency ambient wavefield modifications observed at oil fields in recent years. Our results indicate that ambient wavefield modification is expected to occur for oil reservoirs exhibiting high attenuation. Whether or not such modifications can be detected in surface recordings, however, will depend on acquisition design and noise mitigation processing as well as site-specific conditions, such as the geologic complexity of the subsurface, the nature of the ambient wavefield, and the amount of surface noise.

Numerical analysis of wave-induced fluid flow effects on seismic data: Application to monitoring of CO2 storage at the Sleipner Field

In this work we analyze how patchy distributions of CO2 and brine within sand reservoirs may lead to significant attenuation and velocity dispersion effects, which in turn may have a profound impact on surface seismic data. The ultimate goal of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of these processes within the framework of the seismic monitoring of CO2 sequestration, a key strategy to mitigate global warming. We first carry out a Monte Carlo analysis to study the statistical behavior of attenuation and velocity dispersion of compressional waves traveling through rocks with properties similar to those at the Utsira Sand, Sleipner field, containing quasi-fractal patchy distributions of CO2 and brine. These results show that the mean patch size and CO2 saturation play key roles in the observed wave-induced fluid flow effects. The latter can be remarkably important when CO2 concentrations are low and mean patch sizes are relatively large. To analyze these effects on the corresponding surface seismic data, we perform numerical simulations of wave propagation considering reservoir models and CO2 accumulation patterns similar to the CO2 injection site in the Sleipner field. These numerical experiments suggest that wave-induced fluid flow effects may produce changes in the reservoir's seismic response, modifying significantly the main seismic attributes usually employed in the characterization of these environments. Consequently, the determination of the nature of the fluid distributions as well as the proper modeling of the seismic data constitute important aspects that should not be ignored in the seismic monitoring of CO2 sequestration problems.