Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part I. Partial SGM Plus profiles.

In traditional criminal investigation, uncertainties are often dealt with using a combination of common sense, practical considerations and experience, but rarely with tailored statistical models. For example, in some countries, in order to search for a given profile in the national DNA database, it must have allelic information for six or more of the ten SGM Plus loci for a simple trace. If the profile does not have this amount of information then it cannot be searched in the national DNA database (NDNAD). This requirement (of a result at six or more loci) is not based on a statistical approach, but rather on the feeling that six or more would be sufficient. A statistical approach, however, could be more rigorous and objective and would take into consideration factors such as the probability of adventitious matches relative to the actual database size and/or investigator's requirements in a sensible way. Therefore, this research was undertaken to establish scientific foundations pertaining to the use of partial SGM Plus loci profiles (or similar) for investigation.

Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part II. Statistical and ethical considerations on familial searching.

Familial searching consists of searching for a full profile left at a crime scene in a National DNA Database (NDNAD). In this paper we are interested in the circumstance where no full match is returned, but a partial match is found between a database member's profile and the crime stain. Because close relatives share more of their DNA than unrelated persons, this partial match may indicate that the crime stain was left by a close relative of the person with whom the partial match was found. This approach has successfully solved important crimes in the UK and the USA. In a previous paper, a model, which takes into account substructure and siblings, was used to simulate a NDNAD. In this paper, we have used this model to test the usefulness of familial searching and offer guidelines for pre-assessment of the cases based on the likelihood ratio. Siblings of "persons" present in the simulated Swiss NDNAD were created. These profiles (N=10,000) were used as traces and were then compared to the whole database (N=100,000). The statistical results obtained show that the technique has great potential confirming the findings of previous studies. However, effectiveness of the technique is only one part of the story. Familial searching has juridical and ethical aspects that should not be ignored. In Switzerland for example, there are no specific guidelines to the legality or otherwise of familial searching. This article both presents statistical results, and addresses criminological and civil liberties aspects to take into account risks and benefits of familial searching.

Pharmacovigilance in pregnancy: adverse drug reactions associated with fetal disorders.

Abstract Objective: To provide the first update on drug safety profiles and adverse drug reactions (ADRs) associated with fetal disorders from the Swiss national ADR database. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study using data from 202 pharmacovigilance reports on drug-associated fetal disorders from the Swiss national ADR database from 1990 to 2009. Evaluated aspects included administrative information on the report, drug exposure, and disorders. Results: The ADR reporting frequency on the topic of fetal disorders has increased during the last 20 years, from only 1 report in 1991 to a maximum of 31 reports in 2008. Nervous system drugs were the most frequently reported drug group (40.2%) above all antidepressants and antiepileptics. The highest level of overall drug intake could be observed for the 1st trimester (85.4%), especially for the first 6 weeks of pregnancy. The most frequently reported types of fetal disorders were malformations (68.8%), especially those of the musculoskeletal and circulatory systems. A positive association was discovered between antiepileptics and malformations in general and in particular of the circulatory system and the eye, ear, face, and neck. Conclusions: The results suggest that the nervous system drug group bears an especially high risk for malformations. The most commonly identified drug exposures can help focus pharmacoepidemiologic efforts in drug-induced birth defects.

Prevalence at Birth of Cleft Lip With or Without Cleft Palate: Data From the International Perinatal Database of Typical Oral Clefts (IPDTOC).

As part of a collaborative project on the epidemiology of craniofacial anomalies, funded by the National Institutes for Dental and Craniofacial Research and channeled through the Human Genetics Programme of the World Health Organization, the International Perinatal Database of Typical Orofacial Clefts (IPDTOC) was established in 2003. IPDTOC is collecting case-by-case information on cleft lip with or without cleft palate and on cleft palate alone from birth defects registries contributing to at least one of three collaborative organizations: European Surveillance Systems of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) in Europe, National Birth Defects Prevention Network (NBDPN) in the United States, and International Clearinghouse for Birth Defects Surveillance and Research (ICBDSR) worldwide. Analysis of the collected information is performed centrally at the ICBDSR Centre in Rome, Italy, to maximize the comparability of results. The present paper, the first of a series, reports data on the prevalence of cleft lip with or without cleft palate from 54 registries in 30 countries over at least 1 complete year during the period 2000 to 2005. Thus, the denominator comprises more than 7.5 million births. A total of 7704 cases of cleft lip with or without cleft palate (7141 livebirths, 237 stillbirths, 301 terminations of pregnancy, and 25 with pregnancy outcome unknown) were available. The overall prevalence of cleft lip with or without cleft palate was 9.92 per 10,000. The prevalence of cleft lip was 3.28 per 10,000, and that of cleft lip and palate was 6.64 per 10,000. There were 5918 cases (76.8%) that were isolated, 1224 (15.9%) had malformations in other systems, and 562 (7.3%) occurred as part of recognized syndromes. Cases with greater dysmorphological severity of cleft lip with or without cleft palate were more likely to include malformations of other systems.

Patterns of Subject Mix in Higher Education Institutions : A First Empirical Analysis Using the AQUAMETH Database

Teaching and research are organised differently between subject domains: attempts to construct typologies of higher education institutions, however, often do not include quantitative indicators concerning subject mix which would allow systematic comparisons of large numbers of higher education institutions among different countries, as the availability of data for such indicators is limited. In this paper, we present an exploratory approach for the construction of such indicators. The database constructed in the AQUAMETH project, which includes also data disaggregated at the disciplinary level, is explored with the aim of understanding patterns of subject mix. For six European countries, an exploratory and descriptive analysis of staff composition divided in four large domains (medical sciences, engineering and technology, natural sciences and social sciences and humanities) is performed, which leads to a classification distinguishing between specialist and generalist institutions. Among the latter, a further distinction is made based on the presence or absence of a medical department. Preliminary exploration of this classification and its comparison with other indicators show the influence of long term dynamics on the subject mix of individual higher education institutions, but also underline disciplinary differences, for example regarding student to staff ratios, as well as national patterns, for example regarding the number of PhD degrees per 100 undergraduate students. Despite its many limitations, this exploratory approach allows defining a classification of higher education institutions that accounts for a large share of differences between the analysed higher education institutions.

Debris flow susceptibility mapping at a regional scale along the National Road N7, Argentina

A first assessment of debris flow susceptibility at a large scale was performed along the National Road N7, Argentina. Numerous catchments are prone to debris flows and likely to endanger the road-users. A 1:50,000 susceptibility map was created. The use of a DEM (grid 30 m) associated to three complementary criteria (slope, contributing area, curvature) allowed the identification of potential source areas. The debris flow spreading was estimated using a process- and GISbased model (Flow-R) based on basic probabilistic and energy calculations. The best-fit values for the coefficient of friction and the mass-to-drag ratio of the PCM model were found to be ? = 0.02 and M/D = 180 and the resulting propagation on one of the calibration site was validated using the Coulomb friction model. The results are realistic and will be useful to determine which areas need to be prioritized for detailed studies.

Permanent.Plot.ch - a database for Swiss permanent vegetation plots

The aim of the Permanent.Plot.ch project is the conservation of historical data about permanent plots in Switzerland and the monitoring of vegetation in a context of environmental changes (mainly climate and land use). Permanent plots are currently being recognized as valuable tools to monitor long-term effects of environmental changes on vegetation. Often used in short studies (3 to 5 years), they are generally abandoned at the end of projects. However, their full potential might only be revealed after 10 or more years, once the location is lost. For instance, some of the oldest permanent plots in Switzerland (first half of the 20th century) were nearly lost, although they are now very valuable data. The Permanent.Plot.ch national database (GIVD ID EU-CH-001), by storing historical and recent data, will allow to ensuring future access to data from permanent vegetation plots. As the database contains some private data, it is not directly available on internet but an overview of the data can be downloaded from internet (http://www.unil.ch/ppch) and precise data are available on request.