Subgroup analyses in randomised controlled trials: cohort study on trial protocols and journal publications

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the planning of subgroup analyses in protocols of randomised controlled trials and the agreement with corresponding full journal publications. DESIGN: Cohort of protocols of randomised controlled trial and subsequent full journal publications. SETTING: Six research ethics committees in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. DATA SOURCES: 894 protocols of randomised controlled trial involving patients approved by participating research ethics committees between 2000 and 2003 and 515 subsequent full journal publications. RESULTS: Of 894 protocols of randomised controlled trials, 252 (28.2%) included one or more planned subgroup analyses. Of those, 17 (6.7%) provided a clear hypothesis for at least one subgroup analysis, 10 (4.0%) anticipated the direction of a subgroup effect, and 87 (34.5%) planned a statistical test for interaction. Industry sponsored trials more often planned subgroup analyses compared with investigator sponsored trials (195/551 (35.4%) v 57/343 (16.6%), P<0.001). Of 515 identified journal publications, 246 (47.8%) reported at least one subgroup analysis. In 81 (32.9%) of the 246 publications reporting subgroup analyses, authors stated that subgroup analyses were prespecified, but this was not supported by 28 (34.6%) corresponding protocols. In 86 publications, authors claimed a subgroup effect, but only 36 (41.9%) corresponding protocols reported a planned subgroup analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Subgroup analyses are insufficiently described in the protocols of randomised controlled trials submitted to research ethics committees, and investigators rarely specify the anticipated direction of subgroup effects. More than one third of statements in publications of randomised controlled trials about subgroup prespecification had no documentation in the corresponding protocols. Definitive judgments regarding credibility of claimed subgroup effects are not possible without access to protocols and analysis plans of randomised controlled trials.

Exome sequencing extends the phenotypic spectrum for ABHD12 mutations: from syndromic to nonsyndromic retinal degeneration.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the genetic causes underlying autosomal recessive retinitis pigmentosa (arRP) and to describe the associated phenotype. DESIGN: Case series. PARTICIPANTS: Three hundred forty-seven unrelated families affected by arRP and 33 unrelated families affected by retinitis pigmentosa (RP) plus noncongenital and progressive hearing loss, ataxia, or both, respectively. METHODS: A whole exome sequencing (WES) analysis was performed in 2 families segregating arRP. A mutational screening was performed in 378 additional unrelated families for the exon-intron boundaries of the ABHD12 gene. To establish a genotype-phenotype correlation, individuals who were homozygous or compound heterozygotes of mutations in ABHD12 underwent exhaustive clinical examinations by ophthalmologists, neurologists, and otologists. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: DNA sequence variants, best-corrected visual acuity, visual field assessments, electroretinogram responses, magnetic resonance imaging, and audiography. RESULTS: After a WES analysis, we identified 4 new mutations (p.Arg107Glufs*8, p.Trp159*, p.Arg186Pro, and p.Thr202Ile) in ABHD12 in 2 families (RP-1292 and W08-1833) previously diagnosed with nonsyndromic arRP, which cosegregated with the disease among the family members. Another homozygous mutation (p.His372Gln) was detected in 1 affected individual (RP-1487) from a cohort of 378 unrelated arRP and syndromic RP patients. After exhaustive clinical examinations by neurologists and otologists, the 4 affected members of the RP-1292 had no polyneuropathy or ataxia, and the sensorineural hearing loss and cataract were attributed to age or the normal course of the RP, whereas the affected members of the families W08-1833 and RP-1487 showed clearly symptoms associated with polyneuropathy, hearing loss, cerebellar ataxia, RP, and early-onset cataract (PHARC) syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: Null mutations in the ABHD12 gene lead to PHARC syndrome, a neurodegenerative disease including polyneuropathy, hearing loss, cerebellar ataxia, RP, and early-onset cataract. Our study allowed us to report 5 new mutations in ABHD12. This is the first time missense mutations have been described for this gene. Furthermore, these findings are expanding the spectrum of phenotypes associated with ABHD12 mutations ranging from PHARC syndrome to a nonsyndromic form of retinal degeneration.

Meta-analysis identifies 13 new loci associated with waist-hip ratio and reveals sexual dimorphism in the genetic basis of fat distribution.

Waist-hip ratio (WHR) is a measure of body fat distribution and a predictor of metabolic consequences independent of overall adiposity. WHR is heritable, but few genetic variants influencing this trait have been identified. We conducted a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies for WHR adjusted for body mass index (comprising up to 77,167 participants), following up 16 loci in an additional 29 studies (comprising up to 113,636 subjects). We identified 13 new loci in or near RSPO3, VEGFA, TBX15-WARS2, NFE2L3, GRB14, DNM3-PIGC, ITPR2-SSPN, LY86, HOXC13, ADAMTS9, ZNRF3-KREMEN1, NISCH-STAB1 and CPEB4 (P = 1.9 × 10⁻⁹ to P = 1.8 × 10⁻⁴⁰) and the known signal at LYPLAL1. Seven of these loci exhibited marked sexual dimorphism, all with a stronger effect on WHR in women than men (P for sex difference = 1.9 × 10⁻³ to P = 1.2 × 10⁻&supl;³). These findings provide evidence for multiple loci that modulate body fat distribution independent of overall adiposity and reveal strong gene-by-sex interactions.

The sirtuin inhibitor cambinol impairs MAPK signaling, inhibits inflammatory and innate immune responses and protects from septic shock.

Sirtuins (SIRT1-7) are NAD(+)-dependent histone deacetylases (HDACs) that play an important role in the control of metabolism and proliferation and the development of age-associated diseases like oncologic, cardiovascular and neurodegenerative diseases. Cambinol was originally described as a compound inhibiting the activity of SIRT1 and SIRT2, with efficient anti-tumor activity in vivo. Here, we studied the effects of cambinol on microbial sensing by mouse and human immune cells and on host innate immune responses in vivo. Cambinol inhibited the expression of cytokines (TNF, IL-1β, IL-6, IL-12p40, and IFN-γ), NO and CD40 by macrophages, dendritic cells, splenocytes and whole blood stimulated with a broad range of microbial and inflammasome stimuli. Sirtinol, an inhibitor of SIRT1 and SIRT2 structurally related to cambinol, also decreased macrophage response to TLR stimulation. On the contrary, selective inhibitors of SIRT1 (EX-527 and CHIC-35) and SIRT2 (AGK2 and AK-7) used alone or in combination had no inhibitory effect, suggesting that cambinol and sirtinol act by targeting more than just SIRT1 and SIRT2. Cambinol and sirtinol at anti-inflammatory concentrations also did not inhibit SIRT6 activity in in vitro assay. At the molecular level, cambinol impaired stimulus-induced phosphorylation of MAPKs and upstream MEKs. Going well along with its powerful anti-inflammatory activity, cambinol reduced TNF blood levels and bacteremia and improved survival in preclinical models of endotoxic shock and septic shock. Altogether, our data suggest that pharmacological inhibitors of sirtuins structurally related to cambinol may be of clinical interest to treat inflammatory diseases.

A mega-analysis of genome-wide association studies for major depressive disorder.

Prior genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of major depressive disorder (MDD) have met with limited success. We sought to increase statistical power to detect disease loci by conducting a GWAS mega-analysis for MDD. In the MDD discovery phase, we analyzed more than 1.2 million autosomal and X chromosome single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 18 759 independent and unrelated subjects of recent European ancestry (9240 MDD cases and 9519 controls). In the MDD replication phase, we evaluated 554 SNPs in independent samples (6783 MDD cases and 50 695 controls). We also conducted a cross-disorder meta-analysis using 819 autosomal SNPs with P<0.0001 for either MDD or the Psychiatric GWAS Consortium bipolar disorder (BIP) mega-analysis (9238 MDD cases/8039 controls and 6998 BIP cases/7775 controls). No SNPs achieved genome-wide significance in the MDD discovery phase, the MDD replication phase or in pre-planned secondary analyses (by sex, recurrent MDD, recurrent early-onset MDD, age of onset, pre-pubertal onset MDD or typical-like MDD from a latent class analyses of the MDD criteria). In the MDD-bipolar cross-disorder analysis, 15 SNPs exceeded genome-wide significance (P<5 × 10(-8)), and all were in a 248 kb interval of high LD on 3p21.1 (chr3:52 425 083-53 822 102, minimum P=5.9 × 10(-9) at rs2535629). Although this is the largest genome-wide analysis of MDD yet conducted, its high prevalence means that the sample is still underpowered to detect genetic effects typical for complex traits. Therefore, we were unable to identify robust and replicable findings. We discuss what this means for genetic research for MDD. The 3p21.1 MDD-BIP finding should be interpreted with caution as the most significant SNP did not replicate in MDD samples, and genotyping in independent samples will be needed to resolve its status.

Iron supplementation for unexplained fatigue in non-anaemic women: double blind randomised placebo controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the subjective response to iron therapy in non-anaemic women with unexplained fatigue. DESIGN: Double blind randomised placebo controlled trial. SETTING: Academic primary care centre and eight general practices in western Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: 144 women aged 18 to 55, assigned to either oral ferrous sulphate (80 mg/day of elemental iron daily; n=75) or placebo (n=69) for four weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Level of fatigue, measured by a 10 point visual analogue scale. RESULTS: 136 (94%) women completed the study. Most had a low serum ferritin concentration; <or= 20 microg/l in 69 (51%) women. Mean age, haemoglobin concentration, serum ferritin concentration, level of fatigue, depression, and anxiety were similar in both groups at baseline. Both groups were also similar for compliance and dropout rates. The level of fatigue after one month decreased by -1.82/6.37 points (29%) in the iron group compared with -0.85/6.46 points (13%) in the placebo group (difference 0.95 points, 95% confidence interval 0.32 to 1.62; P=0.004). Subgroups analysis showed that only women with ferritin concentrations <or= 50 microg/l improved with oral supplementation. CONCLUSION: Non-anaemic women with unexplained fatigue may benefit from iron supplementation. The effect may be restricted to women with low or borderline serum ferritin concentrations.

Genetic variants in novel pathways influence blood pressure and cardiovascular disease risk.

Blood pressure is a heritable trait influenced by several biological pathways and responsive to environmental stimuli. Over one billion people worldwide have hypertension (≥140 mm Hg systolic blood pressure or  ≥90 mm Hg diastolic blood pressure). Even small increments in blood pressure are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. This genome-wide association study of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which used a multi-stage design in 200,000 individuals of European descent, identified sixteen novel loci: six of these loci contain genes previously known or suspected to regulate blood pressure (GUCY1A3-GUCY1B3, NPR3-C5orf23, ADM, FURIN-FES, GOSR2, GNAS-EDN3); the other ten provide new clues to blood pressure physiology. A genetic risk score based on 29 genome-wide significant variants was associated with hypertension, left ventricular wall thickness, stroke and coronary artery disease, but not kidney disease or kidney function. We also observed associations with blood pressure in East Asian, South Asian and African ancestry individuals. Our findings provide new insights into the genetics and biology of blood pressure, and suggest potential novel therapeutic pathways for cardiovascular disease prevention.

Re: Cost effectiveness of strategies to combat cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and tobacco use in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia: mathematical modelling study.

Rapid response to: Ortegón M, Lim S, Chisholm D, Mendis S. Cost effectiveness of strategies to combat cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and tobacco use in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia: mathematical modelling study. BMJ. 2012 Mar 2;344:e607. doi: 10.1136/bmj.e607. PMID: 22389337.

Effect of a national primary care pay for performance scheme on emergency hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions: controlled longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact of a national primary care pay for performance scheme, the Quality and Outcomes Framework in England, on emergency hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs). DESIGN: Controlled longitudinal study. SETTING: English National Health Service between 1998/99 and 2010/11. PARTICIPANTS: Populations registered with each of 6975 family practices in England. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Year specific differences between trend adjusted emergency hospital admission rates for incentivised ACSCs before and after the introduction of the Quality and Outcomes Framework scheme and two comparators: non-incentivised ACSCs and non-ACSCs. RESULTS: Incentivised ACSC admissions showed a relative reduction of 2.7% (95% confidence interval 1.6% to 3.8%) in the first year of the Quality and Outcomes Framework compared with ACSCs that were not incentivised. This increased to a relative reduction of 8.0% (6.9% to 9.1%) in 2010/11. Compared with conditions that are not regarded as being influenced by the quality of ambulatory care (non-ACSCs), incentivised ACSCs also showed a relative reduction in rates of emergency admissions of 2.8% (2.0% to 3.6%) in the first year increasing to 10.9% (10.1% to 11.7%) by 2010/11. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of a major national pay for performance scheme for primary care in England was associated with a decrease in emergency admissions for incentivised conditions compared with conditions that were not incentivised. Contemporaneous health service changes seem unlikely to have caused the sharp change in the trajectory of incentivised ACSC admissions immediately after the introduction of the Quality and Outcomes Framework. The decrease seems larger than would be expected from the changes in the process measures that were incentivised, suggesting that the pay for performance scheme may have had impacts on quality of care beyond the directly incentivised activities.

The Relevance of the Principal-Agent Model for the Analysis of Public Policies : Do the Objectives Conflict ?

This paper aims to provide empirical support for the use of the principal-agent framework in the analysis of public sector and public policies. After reviewing the different conditions to be met for a relevant analysis of the relationship between population and government using the principal-agent theory, our paper focuses on the assumption of conflicting goals between the principal and the agent. A principal-agent analysis assumes in effect that inefficiencies may arise because principal and agent pursue different goals. Using data collected during an amalgamation project of two Swiss municipalities, we show the existence of a gap between the goals of the population and those of the government. Consequently, inefficiencies as predicted by the principal-agent model may arise during the implementation of a public policy, i.e. an amalgamation project. In a context of direct democracy where policies are regularly subjected to referendum, the conflict of objectives may even lead to a total failure of the policy at the polls.

Thy-1-mediated cell-cell contact induces astrocyte migration through the engagement of αVβ3 integrin and syndecan-4.

Cell adhesion to the extracellular matrix proteins occurs through interactions with integrins that bind to Arg-Gly-Asp (RGD) tripeptides, and syndecan-4, which recognizes the heparin-binding domain of other proteins. Both receptors trigger signaling pathways, including those that activate RhoGTPases such as RhoA and Rac1. This sequence of events modulates cell adhesion to the ECM and cell migration. Using a neuron-astrocyte model, we have reported that the neuronal protein Thy-1 engages αVβ3 integrin and syndecan-4 to induce RhoA activation and strong astrocyte adhesion to their underlying substrate. Thus, because cell-cell interactions and strong cell attachment to the matrix are considered antagonistic to cell migration, we hypothesized that Thy-1 stimulation of astrocytes should preclude cell migration. Here, we studied the effect of Thy-1 expressing neurons on astrocyte polarization and migration using a wound-healing assay and immunofluorescence analysis. Signaling molecules involved were studied by affinity precipitation, western blotting and the usage of specific antibodies. Intriguingly, Thy-1 interaction with its two receptors was found to increase astrocyte polarization and migration. The latter events required interactions of these receptors with both the RGD-like sequence and the heparin-binding domain of Thy-1. Additionally, prolonged Thy-1-receptor interactions inhibited RhoA activation while activating FAK, PI3K and Rac1. Therefore, sustained engagement of integrin and syndecan-4 with the neuronal surface protein Thy-1 induces astrocyte migration. Interestingly we identify here, a cell-cell interaction that despite initially inducing strong cell attachment, favors cell migration upon persistent stimulation by engaging the same signaling receptors and molecules as those utilized by the extracellular matrix proteins to stimulate cell movement.

Intrauterine exposure to carbamazepine and specific congenital malformations: systematic review and case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify specific major congenital malformations associated with use of carbamazepine in the first trimester of pregnancy. DESIGN: A review of all published cohort studies to identify key indications and a population based case-control study to test these indications. SETTING: Review of PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase for papers about carbamazepine exposure in the first trimester of pregnancy and specific malformations, and the EUROCAT Antiepileptic Study Database, including data from 19 European population based congenital anomaly registries, 1995-2005. PARTICIPANTS: The literature review covered eight cohort studies of 2680 pregnancies with carbamazepine monotherapy exposure, and the EUROCAT dataset included 98 075 registrations of malformations covering over 3.8 million births. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall prevalence for a major congenital malformation after exposure to carbamazepine monotherapy in the first trimester. Odds ratios for malformations with exposure to carbamazepine among cases (five types of malformation identified in the literature review) compared with two groups of controls: other non-chromosomal registrations of malformations and chromosomal syndromes. RESULTS: The literature review yielded an overall prevalence for a major congenital malformation of 3.3% (95% confidence interval 2.7 to 4.2) after exposure to carbamazepine monotherapy in the first trimester. In 131 registrations of malformations, the fetus had been exposed to carbamazepine monotherapy. Spina bifida was the only specific major congenital malformation significantly associated with exposure to carbamazepine monotherapy (odds ratio 2.6 (95% confidence interval 1.2 to 5.3) compared with no antiepileptic drug), but the risk was smaller for carbamazepine than for valproic acid (0.2, 0.1 to 0.6). There was no evidence for an association with total anomalous pulmonary venous return (no cases with carbamazepine exposure), cleft lip (with or without palate) (0.2, 0.0 to 1.3), diaphragmatic hernia (0.9, 0.1 to 6.6), or hypospadias (0.7, 0.3 to 1.6) compared with no exposure to antiepileptic drugs. Further exploratory analysis suggested a higher risk of single ventricle and atrioventricular septal defect. CONCLUSION: Carbamazepine teratogenicity is relatively specific to spina bifida, though the risk is less than with valproic acid. Despite the large dataset, there was not enough power to detect moderate risks for some rare major congenital malformations.