Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

Depleted arc volcanism in the Alboran Sea and shoshonitic volcanism in Morocco: geochemical and isotopic constraints on Neogene tectonic processes

Samples of volcanic rocks from Alboran Island, the Alboran Sea floor and from the Gourougou volcanic centre in northern Morocco have been analyzed for major and trace elements and Sr-Nd isotopes to test current theories on the tectonic geodynamic evolution of the Alboran Sea. The Alboran Island samples are low-K tholeiitic basaltic andesites whose depleted contents of HFS elements (similar to0.5xN-MORB), especially Nb (similar to0.2xN-MORB), show marked geochemical parallels with volcanics from immature intra-oceanic arcs and back-arc basins. Several of the submarine samples have similar compositions, one showing low-Ca boninite affinity. Nd-143/Nd-144 ratios fall in the same range as many island-arc and back-arc basin samples, whereas Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios (on leached samples) are somewhat more radiogenic. Our data point to active subduction taking place beneath the Alboran region in Miocene times, and imply the presence of an associated back-arc spreading centre. Our sea floor suite includes a few more evolved dacite and rhyolite samples with (Sr-87/Sr-86)(0) up to 0.717 that probably represent varying degrees of crustal melting. The shoshonite and high-K basaltic andesite lavas from Gourougou have comparable normalized incompatible-element enrichment diagrams and Ce/Y ratios to shoshonitic volcanics from oceanic island arcs, though they have less pronounced Nb deficits. They are much less LIL- and LREE-enriched than continental arc analogues and post-collisional shoshonites from Tibet. The magmas probably originated by melting in subcontinental lithospheric mantle that had experienced negligible subduction input. Sr-Nd isotope compositions point to significant crustal contamination which appears to account for the small Nb anomalies. The unmistakable supra-subduction zone (SSZ) signature shown by our Alboran basalts and basaltic andesite samples refutes geodynamic models that attribute all Neogene volcanism in the Alboran domain to decompression melting of upwelling asthenosphere arising from convective thinning of over-thickened lithosphere. Our data support recent models in which subsidence is caused by westward rollback of an eastward-dipping subduction zone beneath the westemmost Mediterranean. Moreover, severance of the lithosphere at the edges of the rolling-back slab provides opportunities for locally melting lithospheric mantle, providing a possible explanation for the shoshonitic volcanism seen in northern Morocco and more sporadically in SE Spain. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Marbles and carbonate rocks from central Morocco: a petrographic, mineralogical and geochemical study

Petrographic, mineralogical, and stable isotopes (delta C-13, delta O-18 values) compositions were used to characterise marbles and sedimentary carbonate rocks from central Morocco, which are considered to be a likely source of ornamental and building material from Roman time to the present day. This new data set was used in the frame of an archaeometric provenance study on Roman artefacts from the town of Thamusida (Kenitra, north Morocco), to assess the potential employment of these rocks for the manufacture of the archaeological materials. A representative set of samples from marbles and other carbonate rocks (limestone, dolostone) were collected in several quarries and outcrops in the Moroccan Meseta, in a region extending from the Meknes-Khenifra alignment to the Atlantic Ocean. All the samples were studied using a petrographic, mineralogical and geochemical methods. The petrographic and minerological investigations (optical microscopy, electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction) allowed to group the carbonate rocks in limestones, foliated limestone, diagenetic breccias and dolostone. The limestones could be further grouped as mudstones, wackestones-packstones, crinoid grainstones, oolitic grainstone and floatstones. Textural differences allowed to define marbles varieties. The stable carbon and oxygen isotope composition proved to be quite useful in the discrimination of marble sources, with apparently less discriminatory potential for carbonate rocks.

Stratigraphy and palaeoenvironment of Early Jurassic dinosaur-bearing volcaniclastic deposits from Toundoute (Province of Ouarzazate, Haut-Atlas, Morocco)

The Early Jurassic dinosaur site of Toundoute which yielded the basal sauropod Tazoudasaurus naimi is examined in the light of its stratigraphic, sedimentological and palaeoenvironmental context. A thin succession of Early Liassic marine carbonates (probably Hettangian-Sinemurian in age) is continuously overlain by continental beds with dinosaurs. These latter are assumed to be of Middle to Late Liassic age. The continental deposits include a large part of volcanoclastics, different from the Triassic basalts. The Jurassic volcanoclastics originated from an unknown but obviously close eruption centre. The continental sediments (channels and flood plain) were deposited under tropical climate conditions with alternating humid and dry episodes. The bones occur as isolated or partly articulated elements (parts of carcasses). The two bone-beds are related to typical mud-flows. This type of transport protected the bones from erosion, and favoured their burying and fossilization.

A progressive autosomal recessive cataract locus maps to chromosome 9q13-q22.

Cataracts are the leading cause of blindness in most countries. Although most hereditary cases appear to follow an autosomal dominant pattern of inheritance, autosomal recessive inheritance has been clearly documented and is probably underrecognized. We studied a large family-from a relatively isolated geographic region-whose members were affected by autosomal recessive adult-onset pulverulent cataracts. We mapped the disease locus to a 14-cM interval at a novel disease locus, 9q13-q22 (between markers D9S1123 and D9S257), with a LOD score of 4.7. The study of this progressive and age-related cataract phenotype may provide insight into the cause of the more common sporadic form of age-related cataracts.

From central Atlantic continental rift to Neogene uplift - western Anti-Atlas (Morocco)

P>To put constraints on the Mesozoic to recent growth of the Anti-Atlas system, we investigated the temperature-time history of rocks by applying extensive low-temperature thermochronological analysis to three Precambrian inliers along the coast and 250 km into the interior. Bedrocks yield old U-Th/He ages on zircon (248-193 Ma) and apatite (150-50 Ma) and also fission-track ages of 173-121 Ma on apatite. These datasets are interpreted as recording passive margin upward movements from central Atlantic rifting until the Early Cretaceous. A phase of sedimentary burial was evidenced for the Cretaceous-Eocene. The extension of this thin (1.5 km) basin is loosely constrained but can be extended to the western regions of northern Africa. Effects of the existing thermal perturbation of lithospheric origin 100 km below the Atlas show that the 120-60 degrees C isotherms are not much deflected. Large-scale uplift has possibly occurred in the western Anti-Atlas since c. 30 Ma and is associated with a mean denudation rate of 0.08 km Ma-1.

Validation of Logistic Regression Models for Landslide Susceptibility Maps

A wide range of numerical models and tools have been developed over the last decades to support the decision making process in environmental applications, ranging from physical models to a variety of statistically-based methods. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of Three Gorges Reservoir region of China was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. The available information includes the digital elevation model of the region, geological map and different GIS layers including land cover data obtained from satellite imagery. The landslides were observed and documented during the field studies. The validation analysis is exploited to investigate the quality of mapping.

Textural, chemical, and isotopic effects of late-magmatic carbonatitic fluids in the carbonatite-syenite Tamazeght complex, High Atlas Mountains, Morocco

Carbonatites of the Eocene Tamazeght complex, High Atlas Mountains, Morocco, consist of calciocarbonatites (alvikite and sovite dykes) and magnesiocarbonatites (diatreme breccias and dykes rocks). These are associated with ultramafic, shonkinitic, gabbroic to monzonitic and various foid syenitic silicate units. Stable and radiogenic isotope compositions for carbonatites and silicate rocks indicate that they share a common source in the mantle, although for some carbonatitic samples contamination with sedimentary rocks seems important. The observed isotopic heterogeneity is mainly attributed to source characteristics, fractional crystallization (accompanied by various degrees of assimilation), and late- to post-magmatic fluid-rock interaction. During the late fluid-rock interaction, Sr, Mn, and possibly also Fe were mobilized and redistributed to form secondary carbonate minerals in carbonatites. These fluids also penetrated into the adjacent syenitic rocks, causing enrichment in the same elements.

Discovery of Dogger in the internal limestone dorsale to the S of Tetouan (Northern Rif, Morocco) - Paleogeographic consequences

The Dogger (Bajocian-Lower Bathonian) has been dated for the first time in the internal Limestone Dorsale of the Rif by means of ammonites and radiolarians. It shows radiolarian and nodular limestone facies. It is concluded, then, that radiolarian sedimentation began during the Dogger in this realm, and that a drowning of the `'Ghomaride margin'' occurred at that time.

Mineralogical, petrographic and geochemical characterisation of white and coloured Iberian marbles in the context of the provenancing of some artefacts from Thamusida (Kenitra, Morocco)

A multi-analytical study has been carried out on a collection of white and coloured Iberian marbles. A total of 135 marble specimens were collected in Spain and Portugal from the Betic chain (Alhaurin de la Torre, Mijas, Macael), Ossa Morena (Alconera, Almaden de la Plata and Viana do Alentejo), and the Estremoz Anticline (Bencatel, Borba and Estremoz) areas. X-ray diffractometry and carbon and oxygen stable isotope analysis were carried out on these samples; 38 samples were also investigated by optical and scanning electron microscopy. The results provide a set of diagnostic parameters that allow discriminating the sampled marble quarries. The carbonate minerals composition is distinctive for the Mijas and Alhaurin de la Torre marbles; the isotopic analysis allows discriminating also between these two dolomitic marble quarries. The Ossa Morena and Estremoz Anticline marbles share a similar stable isotope composition; the accessory mineral content, the maximum grain size (MGS) and the fabric are particularly useful in the distinction between them. In the framework of archaeometric provenance studies on Thamusida (Kenitra, Morocco) Roman marble artefacts, a specific comparison between this new Iberian database and archaeological findings has been carried out. The hypothesis of commercial exchanges between the Iberian regions and Roman Morocco is supported by the results of the provenance study, which suggested the Almaden de la Plata and Mijas quarries as possible sources of raw materials for the production of archaeological artefacts.