Patterns of sex work contact among men in the general population of Switzerland, 1987-2000

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the prevalence of lifetime recourse to prostitution (LRP) among men in the general population of Switzerland from a trend and cohort perspective. METHODS: Using nine repeated representative cross-sectional surveys from 1987 to 2000, age-specific estimates of LRP were computed. Trends and period effect were analysed as the evolution of cross-sectional population estimates within age groups and overall. Cohort analysis relied on cohorts constructed from the 1989 survey and followed in subsequent waves. Age and cohort effects were modelled using logistic regression and non-parametric monotone regression. RESULTS: Whereas prevalence for the younger groups was found to be logically lower, there was no consistent increasing or decreasing trend over the years; there was no significant period effect. For the 17-30 year age group, the mean estimate over 1987-2000 was 11.5% (range 8.3 to 12.7%); for the 31-45 year group, the mean was 21.5% (range over 1989-2000 20.3 to 23.0%). Regarding cohort analysis, the prevalence of LRP was found to increase steeply in the youngest ages before reaching a plateau near the age of 40 years. At the age of 43 years, the prevalence was estimated to be 22.6% (95% CI 21.1% to 24.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The steep increase in the cohort-wise prevalence of LRP in younger ages calls for a concentration of prevention activities in young people. If the plateauing at approximately 40 years of age is not followed by a further increase later in life, which is not known, then consumers of paid sex would be repeat buyers only, a fact that should be taken into account by prevention.

Do stacked species distribution models reflect altitudinal diversity patterns?

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of stacked species distribution models in predicting the alpha and gamma species diversity patterns of two important plant clades along elevation in the Andes. We modelled the distribution of the species in the Anthurium genus (53 species) and the Bromeliaceae family (89 species) using six modelling techniques. We combined all of the predictions for the same species in ensemble models based on two different criteria: the average of the rescaled predictions by all techniques and the average of the best techniques. The rescaled predictions were then reclassified into binary predictions (presence/absence). By stacking either the original predictions or binary predictions for both ensemble procedures, we obtained four different species richness models per taxa. The gamma and alpha diversity per elevation band (500 m) was also computed. To evaluate the prediction abilities for the four predictions of species richness and gamma diversity, the models were compared with the real data along an elevation gradient that was independently compiled by specialists. Finally, we also tested whether our richness models performed better than a null model of altitudinal changes of diversity based on the literature. Stacking of the ensemble prediction of the individual species models generated richness models that proved to be well correlated with the observed alpha diversity richness patterns along elevation and with the gamma diversity derived from the literature. Overall, these models tend to overpredict species richness. The use of the ensemble predictions from the species models built with different techniques seems very promising for modelling of species assemblages. Stacking of the binary models reduced the over-prediction, although more research is needed. The randomisation test proved to be a promising method for testing the performance of the stacked models, but other implementations may still be developed.

T Cells Bearing a Chimeric Antigen Receptor against Prostate-Specific Membrane Antigen Mediate Vascular Disruption and Result in Tumor Regression.

Aberrant blood vessels enable tumor growth, provide a barrier to immune infiltration, and serve as a source of protumorigenic signals. Targeting tumor blood vessels for destruction, or tumor vascular disruption therapy, can therefore provide significant therapeutic benefit. Here, we describe the ability of chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-bearing T cells to recognize human prostate-specific membrane antigen (hPSMA) on endothelial targets in vitro as well as in vivo. CAR T cells were generated using the anti-PSMA scFv, J591, and the intracellular signaling domains: CD3ζ, CD28, and/or CD137/4-1BB. We found that all anti-hPSMA CAR T cells recognized and eliminated PSMA(+) endothelial targets in vitro, regardless of the signaling domain. T cells bearing the third-generation anti-hPSMA CAR, P28BBζ, were able to recognize and kill primary human endothelial cells isolated from gynecologic cancers. In addition, the P28BBζ CAR T cells mediated regression of hPSMA-expressing vascular neoplasms in mice. Finally, in murine models of ovarian cancers populated by murine vessels expressing hPSMA, the P28BBζ CAR T cells were able to ablate PSMA(+) vessels, cause secondary depletion of tumor cells, and reduce tumor burden. Taken together, these results provide a strong rationale for the use of CAR T cells as agents of tumor vascular disruption, specifically those targeting PSMA. Cancer Immunol Res; 3(1); 68-84. ©2014 AACR.

Giant warts in a kidney transplant patient: regression with sirolimus.

Purpose: Recent reports have suggested that intraabdominal postoperative infection is associated with higher rates of overall and local recurrence and cancer-specific mortality. However, the mechanisms responsible for this association are unknown. We hypothesized that the greater inflammatory response in patients with postoperative intraabdominal infection is associated to an increase in local and systemic angiogenesis. Methods: We designed a prospective cohorts study with matched controls. Patients with postoperative intra-abdominal infection (abscess and/or anastomotic leakage) (group 1; n=17) after elective colorectal cancer resection operated on for cure were compared to patients with an uncomplicated postoperative course (group 2; n=17). IL-6 and VEGF levels were determined by ELISA in serum and peritoneal fluid at baseline, 48 hours and postoperative day 4 or at the time the peritoneal infection occurred. Results: No differences were observed in age, gender, preoperative CEA, tumor stage and location and type of procedure performed. Although there were no differences in serum IL-6 levels at 48 hours, this pro-inflammatory cytokine was higher in group 1 on postoperative day 4 (group 1: 21533 + 27900 vs. group 2: 1130 + 3563 pg/ml; p < 0.001). Serum VEGF levels were higher in group 1 on postoperative day 4 (group 1: 1212 + 1025 vs. group 2: 408 + 407 pg/ml; p < 0.01). Peritoneal fluid VEGF levels were also higher in group 1 at 48 hours (group 1: 4857 + 4384 vs. group 2: 630 + 461 pg/ml; p < 0.001) and postoperative day 4 (group 1: 32807 + 98486 vs. group 2: 1002 + 1229 pg/ml; p < 0.001). A positive correlation between serum IL-6 and VEGF serum levels was observed on postoperative day 4 (r=0.7; p<0.01). Conclusions: These results suggest that not only the inflammatory response but also the angiogenic pathways are stimulated in patients with intra-abdominal infection after surgery for colorectal cancer. The implications of this finding on long-term follow-up need to be evaluated.

Long-term outcome after cognitive and behavioral regression in nonlesional epilepsy with continuous spike-waves during slow-wave sleep.

PURPOSE: To present the long-term follow-up of 10 adolescents and young adults with documented cognitive and behavioral regression as children due to nonlesional focal, mainly frontal, epilepsy with continuous spike-waves during slow wave sleep (CSWS). METHODS: Past medical and electroencephalography (EEG) data were reviewed and neuropsychological tests exploring main cognitive functions were administered. KEY FINDINGS: After a mean duration of follow-up of 15.6 years (range, 8-23 years), none of the 10 patients had recovered fully, but four regained borderline to normal intelligence and were almost independent. Patients with prolonged global intellectual regression had the worst outcome, whereas those with more specific and short-lived deficits recovered best. The marked behavioral disorders resolved in all but one patient. Executive functions were neither severely nor homogenously affected. Three patients with a frontal syndrome during the active phase (AP) disclosed only mild residual executive and social cognition deficits. The main cognitive gains occurred shortly after the AP, but qualitative improvements continued to occur. Long-term outcome correlated best with duration of CSWS. SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings emphasize that cognitive recovery after cessation of CSWS depends on the severity and duration of the initial regression. None of our patients had major executive and social cognition deficits with preserved intelligence, as reported in adults with early destructive lesions of the frontal lobes. Early recognition of epilepsy with CSWS and rapid introduction of effective therapy are crucial for a best possible outcome.

Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes

The role of land cover change as a significant component of global change has become increasingly recognized in recent decades. Large databases measuring land cover change, and the data which can potentially be used to explain the observed changes, are also becoming more commonly available. When developing statistical models to investigate observed changes, it is important to be aware that the chosen sampling strategy and modelling techniques can influence results. We present a comparison of three sampling strategies and two forms of grouped logistic regression models (multinomial and ordinal) in the investigation of patterns of successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. Results indicated that both ordinal and nominal transitional change occurs in the landscape and that the use of different sampling regimes and modelling techniques as investigative tools yield different results. Synthesis and applications. Our multimodel inference identified successfully a set of consistently selected indicators of land cover change, which can be used to predict further change, including annual average temperature, the number of already overgrown neighbouring areas of land and distance to historically destructive avalanche sites. This allows for more reliable decision making and planning with respect to landscape management. Although both model approaches gave similar results, ordinal regression yielded more parsimonious models that identified the important predictors of land cover change more efficiently. Thus, this approach is favourable where land cover change pattern can be interpreted as an ordinal process. Otherwise, multinomial logistic regression is a viable alternative.

Reversible behavioural autistic-like regression: A manifestation of a special (new?) epileptic syndrome in a 28-month-old child. A 2-year longitudinal study .

A 28-month-old boy was referred for acute onset of abnormal head movements. History revealed an insidious progressive regression in behaviour and communication over several months. Head and shoulder 'spasms' with alteration of consciousness and on one occasion ictal laughter were seen. The electroencephalograph (EEG) showed repeated bursts of brief generalized polyspikes and spike-wave during the 'spasms', followed by flattening, a special pattern which never recurred after treatment. Review of family videos showed a single 'minor' identical seizure 6 months previously. Magnetic resonance imaging was normal. Clonazepam brought immediate cessation of seizures, normalization of the EEG and a parallel spectacular improvement in communication, mood and language. Follow-up over the next 10 months showed a new regression unaccompained by recognized seizures, although numerous seizures were discovered during the videotaped neuropsychological examination, when stereotyped subtle brief paroxysmal changes in posture and behaviour could be studied in slow motion and compared with the 'prototypical' initial ones. The EEG showed predominant rare left-sided fronto-temporal discharges. Clonazepam was changed to carbamazepin with marked improvement in behaviour, language and cognition which has been sustained up to the last control at 51 months. Videotaped home observations allowed the documentation of striking qualitative and quantitative variations in social interaction and play of autistic type in relation to the epileptic activity. We conclude that this child has a special characteristic epileptic syndrome with subtle motor and vegetative symptomatology associated with an insidious catastrophic 'autistic-like' regression which could be overlooked. The methods used to document such fluctuating epileptic behavioural manifestations are discussed.

The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

La régression tumorale n'est pas un facteur de risque d'atteinte du ganglion sentinelle dans les mélanomes fins (indice de Breslow < or = 1 mm) [Tumour regression is not predictive for higher risk of sentinel node involvement in thin melanomas (Breslow thickness < or = 1 mm)]

Background: Thin melanomas (Breslow thickness <= 1 mm) are considered highly curable. The aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation between histological tumour regression and sentinel lymph node (SLN) involvement in thin melanomas. Patients and methods: This was a retrospective single-centre study of 34 patients with thin melanomas undergoing SLN biopsy between April 1998 and January 2005. Results: The study included 14 women and 20 men of mean age 56.3 years. Melanomas were located on the neck (n = 3), soles (n = 4), trunk (n = 13) and extremities (n = 14). Pathological examination showed 25 SSM, four acral lentiginous melanomas, three in situ melanomas, one nodular melanoma and one unclassified melanoma with a mean Breslow thickness of 0.57 mm. Histological tumour regression was observed in 26 over 34 cases and ulceration was found in one case. Clark levels were as follows: I (n = 3), II (n = 20), III (n = 9), IV (n = 2). Growth phase was available in 15 cases (seven radial and eight vertical). Mitotic rates, available in 24 cases, were: 0 (n = 9), 1 (n = 11), 2 (n = 2), 3 (n = 1), 6 (n = 1). One patient with histological tumour regression (2.9% of cases and 3.8% of cases with regressing tumours) had a metastatic SLN. One patient negative for SLN had a lung relapse and died of the disease. Mean follow-up was 26.2 months. Conclusion: The results of the present study and the analysis of the literature show that histological regression of the primary tumour does not seem predictive of higher risk of SLN involvement in thin melanomas. This suggests that screening for SLN is not indicated in thin melanomas, even those with histological regression.

Melan-A-specific cytotoxic T cells are associated with tumor regression and autoimmunity following treatment with anti-CTLA-4.

PURPOSE: Ipilimumab is a monoclonal antibody that blocks the immune-inhibitory interaction between CTL antigen 4 (CTLA-4) and its ligands on T cells. Clinical trials in cancer patients with ipilimumab have shown promising antitumor activity, particularly in patients with advanced melanoma. Often, tumor regressions in these patients are correlated with immune-related side effects such as dermatitis, enterocolitis, and hypophysitis. Although these reactions are believed to be immune-mediated, the antigenic targets for the cellular or humoral immune response are not known. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We enrolled patients with advanced melanoma in a phase II study with ipilimumab. One of these patients experienced a complete remission of his tumor. The specificity and functional properties of CD8-positive T cells in his peripheral blood, in regressing tumor tissue, and at the site of an immune-mediated skin rash were investigated. RESULTS: Regressing tumor tissue was infiltrated with CD8-positive T cells, a high proportion of which were specific for Melan-A. The skin rash was similarly infiltrated with Melan-A-specific CD8-positive T cells, and a dramatic (>30-fold) increase in Melan-A-specific CD8-positive T cells was apparent in peripheral blood. These cells had an effector phenotype and lysed Melan-A-expressing tumor cells. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that Melan-A may be a major target for both the autoimmune and antitumor reactions in patients treated with anti-CTLA-4, and describe for the first time the antigen specificity of CD8-positive T cells that mediate tumor rejection in a patient undergoing treatment with an anti-CTLA-4 antibody. These findings may allow a better integration of ipilimumab into other forms of immunotherapy.

Validation of Logistic Regression Models for Landslide Susceptibility Maps

A wide range of numerical models and tools have been developed over the last decades to support the decision making process in environmental applications, ranging from physical models to a variety of statistically-based methods. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of Three Gorges Reservoir region of China was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. The available information includes the digital elevation model of the region, geological map and different GIS layers including land cover data obtained from satellite imagery. The landslides were observed and documented during the field studies. The validation analysis is exploited to investigate the quality of mapping.

Robust regression in biological assay: application to the evaluation of alternative experimental techniques.

Robust Huber type regression and testing of linear hypotheses are adapted to statistical analysis of parallel line and slope ratio assays. They are applied in the evaluation of results of several experiments carried out in order to compare and validate alternatives to animal experimentation based on embryo and cell cultures. Computational procedures necessary for the application of robust methods of analysis used the conversational statistical package ROBSYS. Special commands for the analysis of parallel line and slope ratio assays have been added to ROBSYS.