Do Nasty and Pleasant Surprises Regarding Tax Revenue Explain Spending Drifts ? : The Case of the Swiss Cantons

This article aims to explain the difference between the expenditure reported in governmental end-of-the-year budgets and the amounts previously forecasted in the approved beginning-of-the-year budgets. We measure how political, financial, and institutional variables affect this spending drift. We focus on two much-debated factors, namely, tax revenue budgeting errors and the stringency of fiscal rules. Our econometric approach uses a panel based on the 26 Swiss cantons covering the period of 1980 to 2011. Results suggest that stringent fiscal rules discourage budget overruns, whereas underestimating tax revenue-i.e., a budgetary "pleasant surprise"-offers the opportunity for some overspending.

L'apôtre, père et mère de la communauté (1 Th 2,1-12)

La correspondance paulinienne réserve, dans ses passages oubliés, quelques surprises propres à nous faire réviser une image figée de Paul. Ainsi 1 Th 2/1-12, où l'apôtre présente son investissement dans la mission sous la double figure de la mère et du père. Daniel MARGUERAT montre que le vocabulaire affectif afflue dans ce texte où Paul appelle les chrétiens de Thessalonique à identifier dans leur histoire personnelle les traces de la puissance de l'évangile. Conscience collective de l'apostolat et lecture théologique des relations interpersonnelles constituent deux accents forts de ce plus ancien écrit de l'apôtre de Tarse.

Three essays on leadership

ABSTRACT Samuel Bendahan, John Antonakis, Christian Zehnder, and François Pralong The relationship between power and immoral decisions has been discussed extensively by scientists and philosophers alike. Although the exercise of power is ubiquitous in social hierarchies, direct evidence on the impact of power on decision making is scarce. We use laboratory experiments to study whether more power leads to corruption. We manipulate power in the context of leader decision-making authority involving monetary stakes. Prior to the experiment, we also gathered extensive data on psychological and endocrinological individual differences. We find that an increase of power caused leaders to be more likely to engage in destructive, selfish behaviour, although the same subjects did not behave in this manner before their level of power was increased. We also show how individual differences affect the initial level of destructive behaviour and the corruption process. WHAT'S RIGHT FOR THE LEFT MAY NOT BE RIGHT FOR THE RIGHT: VALUE CONGRUENCE AND CHARISMA IN POLITICAL LEADERSHIP Samuel Bendahan ABSTRACT Value congruence between leaders and followers is important not only for follower commitment but also as part of the attributions followers make of leaders. I theorized that transformational leadership, which often is referred to as being value driven and having strong moral foundations, has differential effects depending on the values of the follower and whether these values are congruent with what the leader espouses. I designed an experiment to analyze how the political values of followers and leaders can influence followers' attributions regarding leaders. Within the context of political leadership, I found that transformational leaders were seen as more prototypical. Value congruence predicted prototypicality, which was strongly related to follower intentions to vote for the leader. Furthermore, followers with left-wing political values were more influenced by prototypical leaders than were followers with right-wing political values, presumably because of moral overtones of both left-wing ideology and transformational leadership. JUDGING LEADERSHIP POTENTIAL IN AN INTERVIEW: MODERATING EFFECT OF INTERVIEWER INTELLIGENCE ON INTERVIEWER COGNITIVE BUSYNESS, CANDIDATE PERFORMANCE-CUES EFFECTS, AND CANDIDATE ETHNICITY Samuel Bendahan, Philippe Jacquart, and John Antonakis ABSTRACT A large body of literature suggests that interviewers do not accurately rate candidates when using unstructured interviews and evaluation procedures that affect pre-interview expectations; however, the process by which these biases are produced is not well understood. We theorized several reasons for the sub-par performance of the unstructured interview. These factors, which we manipulated in the context of a videotaped interview of a candidate applying for a leadership position, include evaluator cognitive load, pre-interview performance cues regarding the candidate, and the ethnicity of the candidate. We also controlled for the intelligence of the evaluator. We found a significant four-way interaction between the manipulated factors and evaluators' cognitive abilities. The effects of the manipulated factors were all significantly less for evaluators who were high on general intelligence.

Evolutionary impact assessment: accounting for evolutionary consequences of fishing in an ecosystem approach to fisheries management

Managing fisheries resources to maintain healthy ecosystems is one of the main goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). While a number of international treaties call for the implementation of EAF, there are still gaps in the underlying methodology. One aspect that has received substantial scientific attention recently is fisheries-induced evolution (FIE). Increasing evidence indicates that intensive fishing has the potential to exert strong directional selection on life-history traits, behaviour, physiology, and morphology of exploited fish. Of particular concern is that reversing evolutionary responses to fishing can be much more difficult than reversing demographic or phenotypically plastic responses. Furthermore, like climate change, multiple agents cause FIE, with effects accumulating over time. Consequently, FIE may alter the utility derived from fish stocks, which in turn can modify the monetary value living aquatic resources provide to society. Quantifying and predicting the evolutionary effects of fishing is therefore important for both ecological and economic reasons. An important reason this is not happening is the lack of an appropriate assessment framework. We therefore describe the evolutionary impact assessment (EvoIA) as a structured approach for assessing the evolutionary consequences of fishing and evaluating the predicted evolutionary outcomes of alternative management options. EvoIA can contribute to EAF by clarifying how evolution may alter stock properties and ecological relations, support the precautionary approach to fisheries management by addressing a previously overlooked source of uncertainty and risk, and thus contribute to sustainable fisheries.

Affaires de patrons, usages de la frontière : géographie des réseaux marchands entre Niger, Bénin et Nigéria

Résumé L'objectif de la thèse est de comprendre le mode d'organisation économique spécifique aux petits centres urbains qui composent les espaces frontaliers sahéliens, en s'interrogeant sur leur concurrence ou leur complémentarité éventuelle à l'intérieur d'un régime de spatialité particulier. En s'appuyant sur l'exemple du carrefour économique de Gaya-Malanville-Kamba situé à la frontière entre le Niger, le Bénin et le Nigeria, il questionne le rôle de la ville-frontière ainsi que le jeu des acteurs marchands localement dominants, à partir de quatre grandes interrogations : Quelles sont les spécificités de l'Afrique sahélienne qui obligent à renouveler les approches géographiques de l'espace marchand? Quels sont les facteurs déterminants de l'activité économique frontalière? Les formes d'organisation de l'espace qui concourent à la structuration de l'économie sont-elles concurrentes ou coopératives? Les logiques économiques frontalières sont-elles compatibles avec l'orientation des programmes de développement adoptés par les pays sahéliens et leurs partenaires bi- ou multilatéraux? Dans une première partie, un modèle territorial de l'Afrique sahélienne permet de rendre compte de la prédominance des logiques circulatoires sur les logiques productives, une propriété essentielle de toute organisation économique confrontée à l'instabilité climatique. Dans une seconde partie, l'étude considère les facteurs déterminants de l'activité économique frontalière que sont le degré d'enclavement des territoires, la libre circulation des biens et des personnes, les relations concurrentielles ou coopératives qui lient les marchés ainsi que les liens clientélistes qui unissent patron et obligés. Une troisième partie est consacrée aux productions agricoles de tente organisées sous forme de coopératives paysannes ou d'initiatives privées. Une quatrième partie s'intéresse aux réseaux de l'import-export et du commerce de détail qui bénéficient de l'augmentation des besoins engendrée par l'urbanisation sahélienne. L'économie spatiale qui résulte de ces flux est organisée selon deux logiques distinctes : d'une part, les opportunités relatives à la production agricole conduisent certains investisseurs à intensifier l'irrigation pour satisfaire la demande des marchés urbains, d'autre part, les acteurs du capitalisme marchand, actifs dans l'import-export et la vente de détail, développent des réseaux informels et mobiles qui se jouent des différentiels nationaux. Les activités commerciales des villes-marchés connaissent alors des fluctuations liées aux entreprises productives et circulatoires de ces patrons, lesquelles concourent à l'organisation territoriale générale de l>Afrique sahélienne. Ces logiques évoluent dans un contexte fortement marqué par les politiques des institutions financières internationales, des agences bilatérales de coopération et des ONGs. Celles-ci se donnent pour ambition de transformer les économies, les systèmes politiques et les organisations sociales sahéliennes, en faisant la promotion du libéralisme, de la bonne gouvernance et de la société civile. Ces axes directeurs, qui constituent le champ de bataille contemporain du développement, forment un ensemble dans lequel la spécificité sahélienne notamment frontalière est rarement prise en compte. C'est pourquoi l'étude conclut en faveur d'un renouvellement des politiques de développement appliquées aux espaces frontaliers. Trois grands axes d'intervention peuvent alors être dégagés, lesquels permettent de réconcilier des acteurs et des logiques longtemps dissociés: ceux des espaces séparés par une limite administrative, ceux de la sphère urbaine et rurale et ceux du capitalisme marchand et de l'investissement agricole, en renforçant la coopération économique transfrontalière, en prenant en considération les interactions croissantes entre villes et campagnes et en appuyant les activités marchandes. Abstract: Urbanisation in West Africa is recent and fast. If only 10 % of the total population was living in urban areas in 1950, this proportion reached 40 % in 2000 and will be estimated to 60 % in 2025. Small and intermediate cities, located between the countryside and large metropolis, are particularly concerned with this process. They are nowadays considered as efficient vectors of local economic development because of fiscal or monetary disparities between states, which enable businessmen to develop particular skills based on local urban networks. The majority of theses networks are informal and extremely flexible, like in the Gaya - Malanville - Kamba region, located between Niger, Benin and Nigeria. Evidence show that this economic space is characterised by high potentialities (climatic and hydrological conditions, location on main economic West African axis) and few constraints (remoteness of some potentially high productive areas). In this context, this PhD deals with the economic relationships between the three market cities. Focusing on the links that unite the businessmen of the local markets - called patron; - it reveals the extreme flexibility of their strategies as well as the deeply informal nature of their activities. Through the analysis of examples taken from the commerce of agricultural products, import and export flows and detail activities, it studies the changes that have taken place in the city centres of Gaya, Malanville and Kamba. Meanwhile, this research shows how these cities represent a border economical area based on rival and complementary connections. In the first Part, it was necessary to reconsider the usual spatial analysis devoted to the question of economic centrality. As a matter of fact, the organisation of West African economic spaces is very flexible and mobile. Centrality is always precarious because of seasonal or temporary reasons. This is why the first chapters are devoted to the study of the specificity of the Sahelian territoriality. Two main elements are relevant: first the population diversity and second, the urban-rural linkages. In the second part, the study considers three main factors on which the cross-border economic networks are dependent: enclosure that prevents goods to reach the markets, administrative constraints that limit free trade between states and cities and the concurrent or complementary relationships between markets. A third part deals with the clientelist ties engaged between the patrons and their clients with the hypothesis that these relationships are based on reciprocity and inequality. A fourth part is devoted to' the study of the spatial organisation of commercial goods across the borders, as far as the agriculture commercial products, the import-export merchandises and the retail products are concerned. This leads to the conclusion that the economic activity is directly linked to urban growth. However, the study notices that there is a lack of efficient policies dealing with strengthening the business sector and improving the cross-border cooperation. This particularity allows us to favour new local development approaches, which would take into account the important potential of private economical actors. In the same time, the commercial flows should be regulated with the help of public policies, as long as they are specifically adapted to the problems that these areas have to deal with.

Monnaie, citoyenneté et globalisation financière. Les citoyens entre protection sociale et promesses de la capitalisation boursière

La monnaie a été étudiée par des économistes hétérodoxes, des sociologues et des historiens qui ont souligné ses rapports à l'ordre collectif, mais elle n'est que rarement analysée sous l'angle de la citoyenneté. Notre thèse propose une réflexion théorique sur quatre types de fonctions (politique, symbolique, socioéconomique et psychoaffective) qui permettent à la monnaie de jouer un rôle de médiation de la citoyenneté. A partir d'une perspective qui combine les apports de l'économie politique internationale et de l'école de la régulation, nous montrons que cette médiation ne mobilise pas seulement des mécanismes sociopolitiques nationaux, mais aussi des mécanismes internationaux qui rétroagissent sur la sphère domestique des États et affectent leur capacité à définir leur régime de citoyenneté. Cette relation est analysée dans le contexte de l'institutionnalisation du système monétaire international de Bretton Woods (1944) et du développement de la globalisation financière depuis les années 1970. Si la monnaie a été mise au service d'un principe de protection des droits sociaux des citoyens contre les pressions financières extérieures après la Seconde guerre mondiale, elle contribue aujourd'hui à l'ouverture de la sphère domestique des Etats aux flux de capitaux transnationaux et à la création d'un ordre politique et juridique favorable aux droits des investisseurs. Cette dynamique est impulsée par l'essor de nouveaux intermédiaires financiers (notamment les agences de notation et les investisseurs institutionnels) et l'émergence concomitante d'une nouvelle forme d'Etat légitimée à partir d'un discours politique néolibéral insistant sur la quête de compétitivité, la réduction de la protection sociale et la responsabilisation individuelle. Elle se traduit par la privatisation des régimes de retraite et le développement des politiques d'éducation financière qui incitent les citoyens à se comporter en « preneurs de risques » actifs et responsables, assurant eux-mêmes leur sécurité économique à travers le placement de leur épargne retraite sur les marchés financiers. Nous soulignons toutefois les difficultés institutionnelles, cognitives et socioéconomiques qui rendent cette transformation de la citoyenneté contradictoire et problématique. Money has been studied by heterodox economists, sociologists and historians who stressed its relationship to collective order. However, it has hardly been analysed from the viewpoint of its relationship to citizenship. We propose a theoretical account of four types of functions (political, symbolic, socioeconomic and psychoaffective) enabling money to operate as a mediation of citizenship. From a perspective that combines the contributions of international political economy and the regulation school, we show that this mediation mobilises not only national sociopolitical mechanisms, but also international mechanisms which feed back on the domestic sphere of states and affect their capacity to define their regime of citizenship. This relationship is analysed in the context of the institutionalisation of the international monetary system of Bretton Woods (1944) and the development of financial globalization since the 1970s. If money has served to protect the social rights of citizens against external financial pressures after the Second World War, today it contributes to the opening of the domestic sphere of states to transnational capital flows and to the creation of a political and legal order favorable to the rights of investors. This dynamic is driven by the rise of new financial intermediaries (in particular rating agencies and institutional investisors) and the simultaneous emergence of a new form of state legitimized from a neoliberal political discourse emphasizing the quest for competitiveness, reduced social protection and individual responsibilization. It results in the privatization of pension systems and the development of policies of financial education that encourage citizens to behave as active and responsible « risk takers », ensuring their own economic security through the investment of their savings retirement on financial markets. However, we emphasize the institutional, cognitive and socioeconomic difficulties that make this transformation of citizenship contradictory and problematic. - Money has been studied by heterodox economists, sociologists and historians who stressed its relationship to collective order. However, it has hardly been analysed from the viewpoint of its relationship to citizenship. We propose a theoretical account of four types of functions (political, symbolic, socioeconomic and psychoaffective) enabling money to operate as a mediation of citizenship. From a perspective that combines the contributions of international political economy and the regulation school, we show that this mediation mobilises not only national sociopolitical mechanisms, but also international mechanisms which feed back on the domestic sphere of states and affect their capacity to define their regime of citizenship. This relationship is analysed in the context of the institutionalisation of the international monetary system of Bretton Woods (1944) and the development of financial globalization since the 1970s. If money has served to protect the social rights of citizens against external financial pressures after the Second World War, today it contributes to the opening of the domestic sphere of states to transnational capital flows and to the creation of a political and legal order favorable to the rights of investors. This dynamic is driven by the rise of new financial intermediaries (in particular rating agencies and institutional investisors) and the simultaneous emergence of a new form of state legitimized from a neoliberal political discourse emphasizing the quest for competitiveness, reduced social protection and individual responsibilization. It results in the privatization of pension systems and the development of policies of financial education that encourage citizens to behave as active and responsible « risk takers », ensuring their own economic security through the investment of their savings retirement on financial markets. However, we emphasize the institutional, cognitive and socioeconomic difficulties that make this transformation of citizenship problematic.