Clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement for knee osteoarthritis: results from a large, 3-year, prospective EULAR study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement surgery across Europe in primary osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. METHODS: This was a 3-year prospective study of a painful OA knee cohort (from a EULAR-sponsored, multicentre study). All subjects had clinical evaluation, radiographs and ultrasonography (US) at study entry. The rate of knee replacement surgery over the 3-year follow-up period was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival data analyses. Predictive factors for joint replacement were identified by univariate log-rank test then multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Potential baseline predictors included demographic, clinical, radiographic and US features. RESULTS: Of the 600 original patients, 531 (88.5%), mean age 67+/-10 years, mean disease duration 6.1+/-6.9 years, had follow-up data and were analysed. During follow-up (median 3 years; range 0-4 years), knee replacement was done or required for 94 patients (estimated event rate of 17.7%). In the multivariate analysis, predictors of joint replacement were as follows: Kellgren and Lawrence radiographic grade (grade > or =III vs <III, hazards ratio (HR) = 4.08 (95% CI 2.34 to 7.12), p<0.0001); ultrasonographic knee effusion (> or =4 mm vs <4 mm) (HR = 2.63 (95% CI 1.70 to 4.06), p<0.0001); knee pain intensity on a 0-100 mm visual analogue scale (> or =60 vs <60) (HR = 1.81 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.83), p=0.01) and disease duration (> or =5 years vs <5 years) (HR=1.63 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.47), p=0.02). Clinically detected effusion and US synovitis were not associated with joint replacement in the univariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal evaluation of this OA cohort demonstrated significant progression to joint replacement. In addition to severity of radiographic damage and pain, US-detected effusion was a predictor of subsequent joint replacement.

A novel human aquaporin-4 splice variant exhibits a dominant-negative activity: a new mechanism to regulate water permeability.

Two major isoforms of aquaporin-4 (AQP4) have been described in human tissue. Here we report the identification and functional analysis of an alternatively spliced transcript of human AQP4, AQP4-Δ4, that lacks exon 4. In transfected cells AQP4-Δ4 is mainly retained in the endoplasmic reticulum and shows no water transport properties. When AQP4-Δ4 is transfected into cells stably expressing functional AQP4, the surface expression of the full-length protein is reduced. Furthermore, the water transport activity of the cotransfectants is diminished in comparison to transfectants expressing only AQP4. The observed down-regulation of both the expression and water channel activity of AQP4 is likely to originate from a dominant-negative effect caused by heterodimerization between AQP4 and AQP4-Δ4, which was detected in coimmunoprecipitation studies. In skeletal muscles, AQP4-Δ4 mRNA expression inversely correlates with the level of AQP4 protein and is physiologically associated with different types of skeletal muscles. The expression of AQP4-Δ4 may represent a new regulatory mechanism through which the cell-surface expression and therefore the activity of AQP4 can be physiologically modulated.