3 resultados para Modified signed likelihood ratio statistic

em Université de Lausanne, Switzerland


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The level of information provided by ink evidence to the criminal and civil justice system is limited. The limitations arise from the weakness of the interpretative framework currently used, as proposed in the ASTM 1422-05 and 1789-04 on ink analysis. It is proposed to use the likelihood ratio from the Bayes theorem to interpret ink evidence. Unfortunately, when considering the analytical practices, as defined in the ASTM standards on ink analysis, it appears that current ink analytical practices do not allow for the level of reproducibility and accuracy required by a probabilistic framework. Such framework relies on the evaluation of the statistics of the ink characteristics using an ink reference database and the objective measurement of similarities between ink samples. A complete research programme was designed to (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples in a more reproducible way, (b) comparing automatically and objectively ink samples and (c) evaluate the proposed methodology in a forensic context. This report focuses on the first of the three stages. A calibration process, based on a standard dye ladder, is proposed to improve the reproducibility of ink analysis by HPTLC, when these inks are analysed at different times and/or by different examiners. The impact of this process on the variability between the repetitive analyses of ink samples in various conditions is studied. The results show significant improvements in the reproducibility of ink analysis compared to traditional calibration methods.

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For more than a decade scientists tried to develop methods capable of dating ink by monitoring the loss of phenoxyethanol (PE) over time. While many methods were proposed in the literature, few were really used to solve practical cases and they still raise much concern within the scientific community. In fact, due to the complexity of ink drying processes it is particularly difficult to find a reliable ageing parameter to reproducibly follow ink ageing. Moreover, systematic experiments are required in order to evaluate how different factors actually influence the results over time. Therefore, this work aimed at evaluating the capacity of four different ageing parameters to reliably follow ink ageing over time: (1) the quantity of solvent PE in an ink line, (2) the relative peak area (RPA) normalising the PE results using stable volatile compounds present in the ink formulation, (3) the solvent loss ratio (R%) calculated from PE results obtained by the analyses of naturally and artificially aged samples, (4) a modified solvent loss ratio version (R%*) calculated from RPA results. After the determination of the limits of reliable measurements of the analytical method, the repeatability of the different ageing parameters was evaluated over time, as well as the influence of ink composition, writing pressure and storage conditions on the results. Surprisingly, our results showed that R% was not the most reliable parameter, as it showed the highest standard deviation. Discussion of the results in an ink dating perspective suggests that other proposed parameters, such as RPA values, may be more adequate to follow ink ageing over time.

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The evaluation of forensic evidence can occur at any level within the hierarchy of propositions depending on the question being asked and the amount and type of information that is taken into account within the evaluation. Commonly DNA evidence is reported given propositions that deal with the sub-source level in the hierarchy, which deals only with the possibility that a nominated individual is a source of DNA in a trace (or contributor to the DNA in the case of a mixed DNA trace). We explore the use of information obtained from examinations, presumptive and discriminating tests for body fluids, DNA concentrations and some case circumstances within a Bayesian network in order to provide assistance to the Courts that have to consider propositions at source level. We use a scenario in which the presence of blood is of interest as an exemplar and consider how DNA profiling results and the potential for laboratory error can be taken into account. We finish with examples of how the results of these reports could be presented in court using either numerical values or verbal descriptions of the results.