Machine learning for geospatial data : algorithms, software tools and case studies

Résumé Cette thèse est consacrée à l'analyse, la modélisation et la visualisation de données environnementales à référence spatiale à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (Machine Learning). L'apprentissage automatique peut être considéré au sens large comme une sous-catégorie de l'intelligence artificielle qui concerne particulièrement le développement de techniques et d'algorithmes permettant à une machine d'apprendre à partir de données. Dans cette thèse, les algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique sont adaptés pour être appliqués à des données environnementales et à la prédiction spatiale. Pourquoi l'apprentissage automatique ? Parce que la majorité des algorithmes d'apprentissage automatiques sont universels, adaptatifs, non-linéaires, robustes et efficaces pour la modélisation. Ils peuvent résoudre des problèmes de classification, de régression et de modélisation de densité de probabilités dans des espaces à haute dimension, composés de variables informatives spatialisées (« géo-features ») en plus des coordonnées géographiques. De plus, ils sont idéaux pour être implémentés en tant qu'outils d'aide à la décision pour des questions environnementales allant de la reconnaissance de pattern à la modélisation et la prédiction en passant par la cartographie automatique. Leur efficacité est comparable au modèles géostatistiques dans l'espace des coordonnées géographiques, mais ils sont indispensables pour des données à hautes dimensions incluant des géo-features. Les algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique les plus importants et les plus populaires sont présentés théoriquement et implémentés sous forme de logiciels pour les sciences environnementales. Les principaux algorithmes décrits sont le Perceptron multicouches (MultiLayer Perceptron, MLP) - l'algorithme le plus connu dans l'intelligence artificielle, le réseau de neurones de régression généralisée (General Regression Neural Networks, GRNN), le réseau de neurones probabiliste (Probabilistic Neural Networks, PNN), les cartes auto-organisées (SelfOrganized Maps, SOM), les modèles à mixture Gaussiennes (Gaussian Mixture Models, GMM), les réseaux à fonctions de base radiales (Radial Basis Functions Networks, RBF) et les réseaux à mixture de densité (Mixture Density Networks, MDN). Cette gamme d'algorithmes permet de couvrir des tâches variées telle que la classification, la régression ou l'estimation de densité de probabilité. L'analyse exploratoire des données (Exploratory Data Analysis, EDA) est le premier pas de toute analyse de données. Dans cette thèse les concepts d'analyse exploratoire de données spatiales (Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, ESDA) sont traités selon l'approche traditionnelle de la géostatistique avec la variographie expérimentale et selon les principes de l'apprentissage automatique. La variographie expérimentale, qui étudie les relations entre pairs de points, est un outil de base pour l'analyse géostatistique de corrélations spatiales anisotropiques qui permet de détecter la présence de patterns spatiaux descriptible par une statistique. L'approche de l'apprentissage automatique pour l'ESDA est présentée à travers l'application de la méthode des k plus proches voisins qui est très simple et possède d'excellentes qualités d'interprétation et de visualisation. Une part importante de la thèse traite de sujets d'actualité comme la cartographie automatique de données spatiales. Le réseau de neurones de régression généralisée est proposé pour résoudre cette tâche efficacement. Les performances du GRNN sont démontrées par des données de Comparaison d'Interpolation Spatiale (SIC) de 2004 pour lesquelles le GRNN bat significativement toutes les autres méthodes, particulièrement lors de situations d'urgence. La thèse est composée de quatre chapitres : théorie, applications, outils logiciels et des exemples guidés. Une partie importante du travail consiste en une collection de logiciels : Machine Learning Office. Cette collection de logiciels a été développée durant les 15 dernières années et a été utilisée pour l'enseignement de nombreux cours, dont des workshops internationaux en Chine, France, Italie, Irlande et Suisse ainsi que dans des projets de recherche fondamentaux et appliqués. Les cas d'études considérés couvrent un vaste spectre de problèmes géoenvironnementaux réels à basse et haute dimensionnalité, tels que la pollution de l'air, du sol et de l'eau par des produits radioactifs et des métaux lourds, la classification de types de sols et d'unités hydrogéologiques, la cartographie des incertitudes pour l'aide à la décision et l'estimation de risques naturels (glissements de terrain, avalanches). Des outils complémentaires pour l'analyse exploratoire des données et la visualisation ont également été développés en prenant soin de créer une interface conviviale et facile à l'utilisation. Machine Learning for geospatial data: algorithms, software tools and case studies Abstract The thesis is devoted to the analysis, modeling and visualisation of spatial environmental data using machine learning algorithms. In a broad sense machine learning can be considered as a subfield of artificial intelligence. It mainly concerns with the development of techniques and algorithms that allow computers to learn from data. In this thesis machine learning algorithms are adapted to learn from spatial environmental data and to make spatial predictions. Why machine learning? In few words most of machine learning algorithms are universal, adaptive, nonlinear, robust and efficient modeling tools. They can find solutions for the classification, regression, and probability density modeling problems in high-dimensional geo-feature spaces, composed of geographical space and additional relevant spatially referenced features. They are well-suited to be implemented as predictive engines in decision support systems, for the purposes of environmental data mining including pattern recognition, modeling and predictions as well as automatic data mapping. They have competitive efficiency to the geostatistical models in low dimensional geographical spaces but are indispensable in high-dimensional geo-feature spaces. The most important and popular machine learning algorithms and models interesting for geo- and environmental sciences are presented in details: from theoretical description of the concepts to the software implementation. The main algorithms and models considered are the following: multi-layer perceptron (a workhorse of machine learning), general regression neural networks, probabilistic neural networks, self-organising (Kohonen) maps, Gaussian mixture models, radial basis functions networks, mixture density networks. This set of models covers machine learning tasks such as classification, regression, and density estimation. Exploratory data analysis (EDA) is initial and very important part of data analysis. In this thesis the concepts of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) is considered using both traditional geostatistical approach such as_experimental variography and machine learning. Experimental variography is a basic tool for geostatistical analysis of anisotropic spatial correlations which helps to understand the presence of spatial patterns, at least described by two-point statistics. A machine learning approach for ESDA is presented by applying the k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) method which is simple and has very good interpretation and visualization properties. Important part of the thesis deals with a hot topic of nowadays, namely, an automatic mapping of geospatial data. General regression neural networks (GRNN) is proposed as efficient model to solve this task. Performance of the GRNN model is demonstrated on Spatial Interpolation Comparison (SIC) 2004 data where GRNN model significantly outperformed all other approaches, especially in case of emergency conditions. The thesis consists of four chapters and has the following structure: theory, applications, software tools, and how-to-do-it examples. An important part of the work is a collection of software tools - Machine Learning Office. Machine Learning Office tools were developed during last 15 years and was used both for many teaching courses, including international workshops in China, France, Italy, Ireland, Switzerland and for realizing fundamental and applied research projects. Case studies considered cover wide spectrum of the real-life low and high-dimensional geo- and environmental problems, such as air, soil and water pollution by radionuclides and heavy metals, soil types and hydro-geological units classification, decision-oriented mapping with uncertainties, natural hazards (landslides, avalanches) assessments and susceptibility mapping. Complementary tools useful for the exploratory data analysis and visualisation were developed as well. The software is user friendly and easy to use.

Quantifying rates of landscape evolution and tectonic processes by thermochronology and numerical modeling of crustal heat transport using PECUBE

PECUBE is a three-dimensional thermal-kinematic code capable of solving the heat production-diffusion-advection equation under a temporally varying surface boundary condition. It was initially developed to assess the effects of time-varying surface topography (relief) on low-temperature thermochronological datasets. Thermochronometric ages are predicted by tracking the time-temperature histories of rock-particles ending up at the surface and by combining these with various age-prediction models. In the decade since its inception, the PECUBE code has been under continuous development as its use became wider and addressed different tectonic-geomorphic problems. This paper describes several major recent improvements in the code, including its integration with an inverse-modeling package based on the Neighborhood Algorithm, the incorporation of fault-controlled kinematics, several different ways to address topographic and drainage change through time, the ability to predict subsurface (tunnel or borehole) data, prediction of detrital thermochronology data and a method to compare these with observations, and the coupling with landscape-evolution (or surface-process) models. Each new development is described together with one or several applications, so that the reader and potential user can clearly assess and make use of the capabilities of PECUBE. We end with describing some developments that are currently underway or should take place in the foreseeable future. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Homology modeling and metabolism prediction of human carboxylesterase-2 using docking analyses by GriDock: a parallelized tool based on AutoDock 4.0.

Metabolic problems lead to numerous failures during clinical trials, and much effort is now devoted to developing in silico models predicting metabolic stability and metabolites. Such models are well known for cytochromes P450 and some transferases, whereas less has been done to predict the activity of human hydrolases. The present study was undertaken to develop a computational approach able to predict the hydrolysis of novel esters by human carboxylesterase hCES2. The study involved first a homology modeling of the hCES2 protein based on the model of hCES1 since the two proteins share a high degree of homology (congruent with 73%). A set of 40 known substrates of hCES2 was taken from the literature; the ligands were docked in both their neutral and ionized forms using GriDock, a parallel tool based on the AutoDock4.0 engine which can perform efficient and easy virtual screening analyses of large molecular databases exploiting multi-core architectures. Useful statistical models (e.g., r (2) = 0.91 for substrates in their unprotonated state) were calculated by correlating experimental pK(m) values with distance between the carbon atom of the substrate's ester group and the hydroxy function of Ser228. Additional parameters in the equations accounted for hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions between substrates and contributing residues. The negatively charged residues in the hCES2 cavity explained the preference of the enzyme for neutral substrates and, more generally, suggested that ligands which interact too strongly by ionic bonds (e.g., ACE inhibitors) cannot be good CES2 substrates because they are trapped in the cavity in unproductive modes and behave as inhibitors. The effects of protonation on substrate recognition and the contrasting behavior of substrates and products were finally investigated by MD simulations of some CES2 complexes.

Using environmental niche modeling to understand biological invasions in a changing world

L'activité humaine affecte particulièrement la biodiversité, qui décline à une vitesse préoccupante. Parmi les facteurs réduisant la biodiversité, on trouve les espèces envahissantes. Symptomatiques d'un monde globalisé où l'échange se fait à l'échelle de la planète, certaines espèces, animales ou végétales, sont introduites, volontairement ou accidentellement par l'activité humaine (par exemple lors des échanges commerciaux ou par les voyageurs). Ainsi, ces espèces atteignent des régions qu'elles n'auraient jamais pu coloniser naturellement. Une fois introduites, l'absence de compétiteur peut les rendre particulièrement nuisibles. Ces nuisances sont plus ou moins directes, allant de problèmes sanitaires (p. ex. les piqûres très aigües des fourmis de feu, originaires d'Amérique du Sud et colonisant à une vitesse fulgurante les USA, l'Australie ou la Chine) à des nuisances sur la biodiversité (p. ex. les ravages de la perche du Nil sur la diversité unique des poissons Cichlidés du Lac Victoria). Il est donc important de pouvoir prévenir de telles introductions. De plus, pour le biologiste, ces espèces représentent une rare occasion de pouvoir comprendre les mécanismes évolutifs et écologiques qui expliquent le succès des envahissantes dans un monde où les équilibres sont bouleversés. Les modèles de niche environnementale sont un outil particulièrement utile dans le cadre de cette problématique. En reliant des observations d'espèces aux conditions environnementales où elles se trouvent, ils peuvent prédire la distribution potentielle des envahissantes, permettant d'anticiper et de mieux limiter leur impact. Toutefois, ils reposent sur des hypothèses pas évidentes à démontrer. L'une d'entre elle étant que la niche d'une espèce reste constante dans le temps, et dans l'espace. Le premier objectif de mon travail est de comparer si la niche d'une espèce envahissante diffère entre sa distribution d'origine native et celle d'origine introduite. En étudiant 50 espèces de plantes et 168 espèces de Mammifères, je démontre que c'est le cas et que par corolaire, il est possible de prédire leurs distributions. La deuxième partie de mon travail consiste à comprendre quelles seront les interactions entre le changement climatiques et les envahissantes, afin d'estimer leur impact sous un climat réchauffé. En étudiant la distribution de 49 espèces de plantes envahissantes, je démontre que les montagnes, régions relativement préservée par ce problème, deviendront bien plus exposées aux risques d'invasions biologiques. J'expose aussi comment les interactions entre l'activité humaine, le réchauffement climatique et les espèces envahissantes menacent la vigne sauvage en Europe et propose des zones géographiques particulièrement adaptée pour sa conservation. Enfin, à une échelle beaucoup plus locale, je montre qu'il est possible d'utiliser ces modèles de niches le long d'une rivière à une échelle extrêmement fine (1 mètre), potentiellement utile pour rationnaliser des mesures de conservations sur le terrain. - Biodiversity is significantly negatively affected by human activity. Invasive species are one of the most important factors causing biodiversity's decline. Intimately linked to the era of global trade, some plant or animal species can be accidentally or casually introduced with human activity (e.g. trade or travel). In this way, these species reach areas they could never reach through natural dispersal. Once naturalized, the lack of competitors can make these species highly noxious. Their effect is more or less direct, from sanitary problems (e.g. the harmful sting of Fire Ants, originating from South America and now spreading throughout USA, China and Australia) or can affect biodiversity (e.g. the Nile perch, devastating the one of the richest hotspot of Cichlid fishes diversity in Lake Victoria). It is thus important to prevent such harmful introductions. Moreover, invasive species represent for biologists one of the rare occasions to understand the evolutionary and ecological mechanisms behind the success of invaders in a world where natural equilibrium is already disturbed. Environmental niche models are particularly useful to tackle this problematic. By relating species observation to the environmental conditions where they occur, they can predict the potential distribution of invasive species, allowing a better anticipation and thus limiting their impact. However, they rely on strong assumption, one of the most important being that the modeled niche remains constant through space and time. The first aim of my thesis is to quantify the difference between the native and the invaded niche. By investigating 50 plant and 168 mammal species, I show that the niche is at least partially conserved, supporting for reliable predictions of invasive' s potential distributions. The second aim of my thesis is to understand the possible interactions between climate change and invasive species, such as to assess their impact under a warmer climate. By studying 49 invasive plant species, I show that mountain areas, which were relatively preserved, will become more suitable for biological invasions. Additionally, I show how interactions between human activity, global warming and invasive species are threatening the wild grapevine in Europe and propose geographical areas particularly adapted for conservation measures. Finally, at a much finer scale where conservation plannings ultimately take place, I show that it is possible to model the niche at very high resolution (1 meter) in an alluvial area allowing better prioritizations for conservation.

Being Drunk to Have Fun or to Forget Problems? Identifying Enhancement and Coping Drinkers Among Risky Drinking Adolescents

Prevention programs in adolescence are particularly effective if they target homogeneous risk groups of adolescents who share a combination of particular needs and problems. The present work aims to identify and classify risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD) adolescents according to their motivation to engage in drinking. An easy-to-use coding procedure was developed. It was validated by means of cluster analyses and structural equation modeling based on two randomly selected subsamples of a nationally representative sample of 2,449 12- to 18-year-old RSOD students in Switzerland. Results revealed that the coding procedure classified RSOD adolescents as either enhancement drinkers or coping drinkers. The high concordance (Sample A: kappa - .88, Sample B: kappa - .90) with the results of the cluster analyses demonstrated the convergent validity of the coding classification. The fact that enhancement drinkers in both subsamples were found to go out more frequently in the evenings and to have more satisfactory social relationships, as well as a higher proportion of drinking peers and a lower likelihood to drink at home than coping drinkers demonstrates the concurrent validity of the classification. To conclude, the coding procedure appears to be a valid, reliable, and easy-to-use tool that can help better adapt prevention activities to adolescent risky drinking motives.

Photopolymerizable hydrogels for implants: Monte-Carlo modeling and experimental in vitro validation.

Photopolymerization is commonly used in a broad range of bioapplications, such as drug delivery, tissue engineering, and surgical implants, where liquid materials are injected and then hardened by means of illumination to create a solid polymer network. However, photopolymerization using a probe, e.g., needle guiding both the liquid and the curing illumination, has not been thoroughly investigated. We present a Monte Carlo model that takes into account the dynamic absorption and scattering parameters as well as solid-liquid boundaries of the photopolymer to yield the shape and volume of minimally invasively injected, photopolymerized hydrogels. In the first part of the article, our model is validated using a set of well-known poly(ethylene glycol) dimethacrylate hydrogels showing an excellent agreement between simulated and experimental volume-growth-rates. In the second part, in situ experimental results and simulations for photopolymerization in tissue cavities are presented. It was found that a cavity with a volume of 152  mm3 can be photopolymerized from the output of a 0.28-mm2 fiber by adding scattering lipid particles while only a volume of 38  mm3 (25%) was achieved without particles. The proposed model provides a simple and robust method to solve complex photopolymerization problems, where the dimension of the light source is much smaller than the volume of the photopolymerizable hydrogel.

Pore-scale modeling of two-phase flow instabilities in porous media

Les problèmes d'écoulements multiphasiques en média poreux sont d'un grand intérêt pour de nombreuses applications scientifiques et techniques ; comme la séquestration de C02, l'extraction de pétrole et la dépollution des aquifères. La complexité intrinsèque des systèmes multiphasiques et l'hétérogénéité des formations géologiques sur des échelles multiples représentent un challenge majeur pour comprendre et modéliser les déplacements immiscibles dans les milieux poreux. Les descriptions à l'échelle supérieure basées sur la généralisation de l'équation de Darcy sont largement utilisées, mais ces méthodes sont sujettes à limitations pour les écoulements présentant de l'hystérèse. Les avancées récentes en terme de performances computationnelles et le développement de méthodes précises pour caractériser l'espace interstitiel ainsi que la distribution des phases ont favorisé l'utilisation de modèles qui permettent une résolution fine à l'échelle du pore. Ces modèles offrent un aperçu des caractéristiques de l'écoulement qui ne peuvent pas être facilement observées en laboratoire et peuvent être utilisé pour expliquer la différence entre les processus physiques et les modèles à l'échelle macroscopique existants. L'objet premier de la thèse se porte sur la simulation numérique directe : les équations de Navier-Stokes sont résolues dans l'espace interstitiel et la méthode du volume de fluide (VOF) est employée pour suivre l'évolution de l'interface. Dans VOF, la distribution des phases est décrite par une fonction fluide pour l'ensemble du domaine et des conditions aux bords particulières permettent la prise en compte des propriétés de mouillage du milieu poreux. Dans la première partie de la thèse, nous simulons le drainage dans une cellule Hele-Shaw 2D avec des obstacles cylindriques. Nous montrons que l'approche proposée est applicable même pour des ratios de densité et de viscosité très importants et permet de modéliser la transition entre déplacement stable et digitation visqueuse. Nous intéressons ensuite à l'interprétation de la pression capillaire à l'échelle macroscopique. Nous montrons que les techniques basées sur la moyenne spatiale de la pression présentent plusieurs limitations et sont imprécises en présence d'effets visqueux et de piégeage. Au contraire, une définition basée sur l'énergie permet de séparer les contributions capillaires des effets visqueux. La seconde partie de la thèse est consacrée à l'investigation des effets d'inertie associés aux reconfigurations irréversibles du ménisque causé par l'interface des instabilités. Comme prototype pour ces phénomènes, nous étudions d'abord la dynamique d'un ménisque dans un pore angulaire. Nous montrons que, dans un réseau de pores cubiques, les sauts et reconfigurations sont si fréquents que les effets d'inertie mènent à différentes configurations des fluides. A cause de la non-linéarité du problème, la distribution des fluides influence le travail des forces de pression, qui, à son tour, provoque une chute de pression dans la loi de Darcy. Cela suggère que ces phénomènes devraient être pris en compte lorsque que l'on décrit l'écoulement multiphasique en média poreux à l'échelle macroscopique. La dernière partie de la thèse s'attache à démontrer la validité de notre approche par une comparaison avec des expériences en laboratoire : un drainage instable dans un milieu poreux quasi 2D (une cellule Hele-Shaw avec des obstacles cylindriques). Plusieurs simulations sont tournées sous différentes conditions aux bords et en utilisant différents modèles (modèle intégré 2D et modèle 3D) afin de comparer certaines quantités macroscopiques avec les observations au laboratoire correspondantes. Malgré le challenge de modéliser des déplacements instables, où, par définition, de petites perturbations peuvent grandir sans fin, notre approche numérique apporte de résultats satisfaisants pour tous les cas étudiés. - Problems involving multiphase flow in porous media are of great interest in many scientific and engineering applications including Carbon Capture and Storage, oil recovery and groundwater remediation. The intrinsic complexity of multiphase systems and the multi scale heterogeneity of geological formations represent the major challenges to understand and model immiscible displacement in porous media. Upscaled descriptions based on generalization of Darcy's law are widely used, but they are subject to several limitations for flow that exhibit hysteric and history- dependent behaviors. Recent advances in high performance computing and the development of accurate methods to characterize pore space and phase distribution have fostered the use of models that allow sub-pore resolution. These models provide an insight on flow characteristics that cannot be easily achieved by laboratory experiments and can be used to explain the gap between physical processes and existing macro-scale models. We focus on direct numerical simulations: we solve the Navier-Stokes equations for mass and momentum conservation in the pore space and employ the Volume Of Fluid (VOF) method to track the evolution of the interface. In the VOF the distribution of the phases is described by a fluid function (whole-domain formulation) and special boundary conditions account for the wetting properties of the porous medium. In the first part of this thesis we simulate drainage in a 2-D Hele-Shaw cell filled with cylindrical obstacles. We show that the proposed approach can handle very large density and viscosity ratios and it is able to model the transition from stable displacement to viscous fingering. We then focus on the interpretation of the macroscopic capillary pressure showing that pressure average techniques are subject to several limitations and they are not accurate in presence of viscous effects and trapping. On the contrary an energy-based definition allows separating viscous and capillary contributions. In the second part of the thesis we investigate inertia effects associated with abrupt and irreversible reconfigurations of the menisci caused by interface instabilities. As a prototype of these phenomena we first consider the dynamics of a meniscus in an angular pore. We show that in a network of cubic pores, jumps and reconfigurations are so frequent that inertia effects lead to different fluid configurations. Due to the non-linearity of the problem, the distribution of the fluids influences the work done by pressure forces, which is in turn related to the pressure drop in Darcy's law. This suggests that these phenomena should be taken into account when upscaling multiphase flow in porous media. The last part of the thesis is devoted to proving the accuracy of the numerical approach by validation with experiments of unstable primary drainage in a quasi-2D porous medium (i.e., Hele-Shaw cell filled with cylindrical obstacles). We perform simulations under different boundary conditions and using different models (2-D integrated and full 3-D) and we compare several macroscopic quantities with the corresponding experiment. Despite the intrinsic challenges of modeling unstable displacement, where by definition small perturbations can grow without bounds, the numerical method gives satisfactory results for all the cases studied.

Modeling morphogen gradient formation from arbitrary realistically shaped sources.

Much of the analytical modeling of morphogen profiles is based on simplistic scenarios, where the source is abstracted to be point-like and fixed in time, and where only the steady state solution of the morphogen gradient in one dimension is considered. Here we develop a general formalism allowing to model diffusive gradient formation from an arbitrary source. This mathematical framework, based on the Green's function method, applies to various diffusion problems. In this paper, we illustrate our theory with the explicit example of the Bicoid gradient establishment in Drosophila embryos. The gradient formation arises by protein translation from a mRNA distribution followed by morphogen diffusion with linear degradation. We investigate quantitatively the influence of spatial extension and time evolution of the source on the morphogen profile. For different biologically meaningful cases, we obtain explicit analytical expressions for both the steady state and time-dependent 1D problems. We show that extended sources, whether of finite size or normally distributed, give rise to more realistic gradients compared to a single point-source at the origin. Furthermore, the steady state solutions are fully compatible with a decreasing exponential behavior of the profile. We also consider the case of a dynamic source (e.g. bicoid mRNA diffusion) for which a protein profile similar to the ones obtained from static sources can be achieved.

Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Environmental data mining and modeling based on machine learning algorithms and geostatistics

The paper presents some contemporary approaches to spatial environmental data analysis. The main topics are concentrated on the decision-oriented problems of environmental spatial data mining and modeling: valorization and representativity of data with the help of exploratory data analysis, spatial predictions, probabilistic and risk mapping, development and application of conditional stochastic simulation models. The innovative part of the paper presents integrated/hybrid model-machine learning (ML) residuals sequential simulations-MLRSS. The models are based on multilayer perceptron and support vector regression ML algorithms used for modeling long-range spatial trends and sequential simulations of the residuals. NIL algorithms deliver non-linear solution for the spatial non-stationary problems, which are difficult for geostatistical approach. Geostatistical tools (variography) are used to characterize performance of ML algorithms, by analyzing quality and quantity of the spatially structured information extracted from data with ML algorithms. Sequential simulations provide efficient assessment of uncertainty and spatial variability. Case study from the Chernobyl fallouts illustrates the performance of the proposed model. It is shown that probability mapping, provided by the combination of ML data driven and geostatistical model based approaches, can be efficiently used in decision-making process. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geological realism in hydrogeological and geophysical inverse modeling: A review

Scientific curiosity, exploration of georesources and environmental concerns are pushing the geoscientific research community toward subsurface investigations of ever-increasing complexity. This review explores various approaches to formulate and solve inverse problems in ways that effectively integrate geological concepts with geophysical and hydrogeological data. Modern geostatistical simulation algorithms can produce multiple subsurface realizations that are in agreement with conceptual geological models and statistical rock physics can be used to map these realizations into physical properties that are sensed by the geophysical or hydrogeological data. The inverse problem consists of finding one or an ensemble of such subsurface realizations that are in agreement with the data. The most general inversion frameworks are presently often computationally intractable when applied to large-scale problems and it is necessary to better understand the implications of simplifying (1) the conceptual geological model (e.g., using model compression); (2) the physical forward problem (e.g., using proxy models); and (3) the algorithm used to solve the inverse problem (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo or local optimization methods) to reach practical and robust solutions given today's computer resources and knowledge. We also highlight the need to not only use geophysical and hydrogeological data for parameter estimation purposes, but also to use them to falsify or corroborate alternative geological scenarios.

Ab initio modeling and molecular dynamics simulation of the alpha 1b-adrenergic receptor activation.

This work describes the ab initio procedure employed to build an activation model for the alpha 1b-adrenergic receptor (alpha 1b-AR). The first version of the model was progressively modified and complicated by means of a many-step iterative procedure characterized by the employment of experimental validations of the model in each upgrading step. A combined simulated (molecular dynamics) and experimental mutagenesis approach was used to determine the structural and dynamic features characterizing the inactive and active states of alpha 1b-AR. The latest version of the model has been successfully challenged with respect to its ability to interpret and predict the functional properties of a large number of mutants. The iterative approach employed to describe alpha 1b-AR activation in terms of molecular structure and dynamics allows further complications of the model to allow prediction and interpretation of an ever-increasing number of experimental data.

Taxonomical and biogeographical problems in Mediterranean shrews of the genus Crocidura (Mammalia, Insectivora) with reference to a new karyotype from Sicily (Italy)

Shrews of the genus Crocidura from Sicily revealed a new karyotype from Europe: 2n = 36, NF = 56, NFa = 52. With reference to the revision of Vesmanis (1976), this shrew is provisionally attributed to C. caudata Miller, 1901 and it is proposed to call it the "Sicilian shrew". Its chromosome complement is similar to that of shrews from Canary Islands and a species from Burundi (Central Africa), suggesting that it might have split off from a line of Paleotropical origin. Following these findings, the modern concept of Mediterranean island colonization by shrews must be revised. The distinctive characteristics of Mediterranean shrews should also be revised.

Intervention précoce dans la phase initiale des troubles psychotiques à Lausanne: quels problèmes et quelles solutions [Early intervention for the initial phase of psychotic disorders in Lausanne: what problems and what solutions?]

Schizophrenia has long been considered with pessimism, but the recent interest in the early phase of psychotic disorders has modified this often unjustified perception. Literature has demonstrated the benefit of the development of programs specialised in the treatment of early psychosis, which tend to be developed in many countries. It is however important to match them to local needs as well as to the structure of local health services. This paper reviews elements that justify such a development in Lausanne, Switzerland, and describe its various elements.

Modeling sequencing errors by combining Hidden Markov models.

Among the largest resources for biological sequence data is the large amount of expressed sequence tags (ESTs) available in public and proprietary databases. ESTs provide information on transcripts but for technical reasons they often contain sequencing errors. Therefore, when analyzing EST sequences computationally, such errors must be taken into account. Earlier attempts to model error prone coding regions have shown good performance in detecting and predicting these while correcting sequencing errors using codon usage frequencies. In the research presented here, we improve the detection of translation start and stop sites by integrating a more complex mRNA model with codon usage bias based error correction into one hidden Markov model (HMM), thus generalizing this error correction approach to more complex HMMs. We show that our method maintains the performance in detecting coding sequences.