Interactive Epistemology and Reasoning: On the Foundations of Game Theory

Game theory describes and analyzes strategic interaction. It is usually distinguished between static games, which are strategic situations in which the players choose only once as well as simultaneously, and dynamic games, which are strategic situations involving sequential choices. In addition, dynamic games can be further classified according to perfect and imperfect information. Indeed, a dynamic game is said to exhibit perfect information, whenever at any point of the game every player has full informational access to all choices that have been conducted so far. However, in the case of imperfect information some players are not fully informed about some choices. Game-theoretic analysis proceeds in two steps. Firstly, games are modelled by so-called form structures which extract and formalize the significant parts of the underlying strategic interaction. The basic and most commonly used models of games are the normal form, which rather sparsely describes a game merely in terms of the players' strategy sets and utilities, and the extensive form, which models a game in a more detailed way as a tree. In fact, it is standard to formalize static games with the normal form and dynamic games with the extensive form. Secondly, solution concepts are developed to solve models of games in the sense of identifying the choices that should be taken by rational players. Indeed, the ultimate objective of the classical approach to game theory, which is of normative character, is the development of a solution concept that is capable of identifying a unique choice for every player in an arbitrary game. However, given the large variety of games, it is not at all certain whether it is possible to device a solution concept with such universal capability. Alternatively, interactive epistemology provides an epistemic approach to game theory of descriptive character. This rather recent discipline analyzes the relation between knowledge, belief and choice of game-playing agents in an epistemic framework. The description of the players' choices in a given game relative to various epistemic assumptions constitutes the fundamental problem addressed by an epistemic approach to game theory. In a general sense, the objective of interactive epistemology consists in characterizing existing game-theoretic solution concepts in terms of epistemic assumptions as well as in proposing novel solution concepts by studying the game-theoretic implications of refined or new epistemic hypotheses. Intuitively, an epistemic model of a game can be interpreted as representing the reasoning of the players. Indeed, before making a decision in a game, the players reason about the game and their respective opponents, given their knowledge and beliefs. Precisely these epistemic mental states on which players base their decisions are explicitly expressible in an epistemic framework. In this PhD thesis, we consider an epistemic approach to game theory from a foundational point of view. In Chapter 1, basic game-theoretic notions as well as Aumann's epistemic framework for games are expounded and illustrated. Also, Aumann's sufficient conditions for backward induction are presented and his conceptual views discussed. In Chapter 2, Aumann's interactive epistemology is conceptually analyzed. In Chapter 3, which is based on joint work with Conrad Heilmann, a three-stage account for dynamic games is introduced and a type-based epistemic model is extended with a notion of agent connectedness. Then, sufficient conditions for backward induction are derived. In Chapter 4, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa, a topological approach to interactive epistemology is initiated. In particular, the epistemic-topological operator limit knowledge is defined and some implications for games considered. In Chapter 5, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa and Andrés Perea, Aumann's impossibility theorem on agreeing to disagree is revisited and weakened in the sense that possible contexts are provided in which agents can indeed agree to disagree.

Evolutionary Games in Networked Populations: Models and Experiments

Cooperation and coordination are desirable behaviors that are fundamental for the harmonious development of society. People need to rely on cooperation with other individuals in many aspects of everyday life, such as teamwork and economic exchange in anonymous markets. However, cooperation may easily fall prey to exploitation by selfish individuals who only care about short- term gain. For cooperation to evolve, specific conditions and mechanisms are required, such as kinship, direct and indirect reciprocity through repeated interactions, or external interventions such as punishment. In this dissertation we investigate the effect of the network structure of the population on the evolution of cooperation and coordination. We consider several kinds of static and dynamical network topologies, such as Baraba´si-Albert, social network models and spatial networks. We perform numerical simulations and laboratory experiments using the Prisoner's Dilemma and co- ordination games in order to contrast human behavior with theoretical results. We show by numerical simulations that even a moderate amount of random noise on the Baraba´si-Albert scale-free network links causes a significant loss of cooperation, to the point that cooperation almost vanishes altogether in the Prisoner's Dilemma when the noise rate is high enough. Moreover, when we consider fixed social-like networks we find that current models of social networks may allow cooperation to emerge and to be robust at least as much as in scale-free networks. In the framework of spatial networks, we investigate whether cooperation can evolve and be stable when agents move randomly or performing Le´vy flights in a continuous space. We also consider discrete space adopting purposeful mobility and binary birth-death process to dis- cover emergent cooperative patterns. The fundamental result is that cooperation may be enhanced when this migration is opportunistic or even when agents follow very simple heuristics. In the experimental laboratory, we investigate the issue of social coordination between indi- viduals located on networks of contacts. In contrast to simulations, we find that human players dynamics do not converge to the efficient outcome more often in a social-like network than in a random network. In another experiment, we study the behavior of people who play a pure co- ordination game in a spatial environment in which they can move around and when changing convention is costly. We find that each convention forms homogeneous clusters and is adopted by approximately half of the individuals. When we provide them with global information, i.e., the number of subjects currently adopting one of the conventions, global consensus is reached in most, but not all, cases. Our results allow us to extract the heuristics used by the participants and to build a numerical simulation model that agrees very well with the experiments. Our findings have important implications for policymakers intending to promote specific, desired behaviors in a mobile population. Furthermore, we carry out an experiment with human subjects playing the Prisoner's Dilemma game in a diluted grid where people are able to move around. In contrast to previous results on purposeful rewiring in relational networks, we find no noticeable effect of mobility in space on the level of cooperation. Clusters of cooperators form momentarily but in a few rounds they dissolve as cooperators at the boundaries stop tolerating being cheated upon. Our results highlight the difficulties that mobile agents have to establish a cooperative environment in a spatial setting without a device such as reputation or the possibility of retaliation. i.e. punishment. Finally, we test experimentally the evolution of cooperation in social networks taking into ac- count a setting where we allow people to make or break links at their will. In this work we give particular attention to whether information on an individual's actions is freely available to poten- tial partners or not. Studying the role of information is relevant as information on other people's actions is often not available for free: a recruiting firm may need to call a job candidate's refer- ences, a bank may need to find out about the credit history of a new client, etc. We find that people cooperate almost fully when information on their actions is freely available to their potential part- ners. Cooperation is less likely, however, if people have to pay about half of what they gain from cooperating with a cooperator. Cooperation declines even further if people have to pay a cost that is almost equivalent to the gain from cooperating with a cooperator. Thus, costly information on potential neighbors' actions can undermine the incentive to cooperate in dynamical networks.

Which subgroup of patients with rheumatoid arthritis benefits from switching to rituximab versus alternative anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) agents after previous failure of an anti-TNF agent?

BACKGROUND: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with an inadequate response to TNF antagonists (aTNFs) may switch to an alternative aTNF or start treatment from a different class of drugs, such as rituximab (RTX). It remains unclear in which clinical settings these therapeutic strategies offer most benefit. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the effectiveness of RTX versus alternative aTNFs on RA disease activity in different subgroups of patients. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of patients with RA who discontinued at least one aTNF and subsequently received either RTX or an alternative aTNF, nested within the Swiss RA registry (SCQM-RA) was carried out. The primary outcome, longitudinal improvement in 28-joint count Disease Activity Score (DAS28), was analysed using multivariate regression models for longitudinal data and adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of the 318 patients with RA included; 155 received RTX and 163 received an alternative aTNF. The relative benefit of RTX varied with the type of prior aTNF failure: when the motive for switching was ineffectiveness to previous aTNFs, the longitudinal improvement in DAS28 was significantly better with RTX than with an alternative aTNF (p = 0.03; at 6 months, -1.34 (95% CI -1.54 to -1.15) vs -0.93 (95% CI -1.28 to -0.59), respectively). When the motive for switching was other causes, the longitudinal improvement in DAS28 was similar for RTX and alternative aTNFs (p = 0.40). These results were not significantly modified by the number of previous aTNF failures, the type of aTNF switches, or the presence of co-treatment with a disease-modifying antirheumatic drug. CONCLUSION: This observational study suggests that in patients with RA who have stopped a previous aTNF treatment because of ineffectiveness changing to RTX is more effective than switching to an alternative aTNF.

When nightclub security agents assault clients.

In 2006, a medico-legal consultation service devoted to adult victims of interpersonal violence was set up at the Lausanne University Hospital Centre, Switzerland: the Violence Medical Unit. Most patients are referred to the consultation by the Emergency Department. They are received by forensic nurses for support, forensic examination (in order to establish medical report) and community orientation. Between 2007 and 2009, among community violence, aggressions by security agents of nightclubs on clients have increased from 6% to 10%. Most of the victims are young men who had drunk alcohol before the assault. 25.7% presented one or several fractures, all of them in the head area. These findings raise questions about the ability of security agents of nightclubs to deal adequately with obviously risky situations and ensure client security.

Policy Diffusion: An Agent-Based Approach

Methods like Event History Analysis can show the existence of diffusion and part of its nature, but do not study the process itself. Nowadays, thanks to the increasing performance of computers, processes can be studied using computational modeling. This thesis presents an agent-based model of policy diffusion mainly inspired from the model developed by Braun and Gilardi (2006). I first start by developing a theoretical framework of policy diffusion that presents the main internal drivers of policy diffusion - such as the preference for the policy, the effectiveness of the policy, the institutional constraints, and the ideology - and its main mechanisms, namely learning, competition, emulation, and coercion. Therefore diffusion, expressed by these interdependencies, is a complex process that needs to be studied with computational agent-based modeling. In a second step, computational agent-based modeling is defined along with its most significant concepts: complexity and emergence. Using computational agent-based modeling implies the development of an algorithm and its programming. When this latter has been developed, we let the different agents interact. Consequently, a phenomenon of diffusion, derived from learning, emerges, meaning that the choice made by an agent is conditional to that made by its neighbors. As a result, learning follows an inverted S-curve, which leads to partial convergence - global divergence and local convergence - that triggers the emergence of political clusters; i.e. the creation of regions with the same policy. Furthermore, the average effectiveness in this computational world tends to follow a J-shaped curve, meaning that not only time is needed for a policy to deploy its effects, but that it also takes time for a country to find the best-suited policy. To conclude, diffusion is an emergent phenomenon from complex interactions and its outcomes as ensued from my model are in line with the theoretical expectations and the empirical evidence.Les méthodes d'analyse de biographie (event history analysis) permettent de mettre en évidence l'existence de phénomènes de diffusion et de les décrire, mais ne permettent pas d'en étudier le processus. Les simulations informatiques, grâce aux performances croissantes des ordinateurs, rendent possible l'étude des processus en tant que tels. Cette thèse, basée sur le modèle théorique développé par Braun et Gilardi (2006), présente une simulation centrée sur les agents des phénomènes de diffusion des politiques. Le point de départ de ce travail met en lumière, au niveau théorique, les principaux facteurs de changement internes à un pays : la préférence pour une politique donnée, l'efficacité de cette dernière, les contraintes institutionnelles, l'idéologie, et les principaux mécanismes de diffusion que sont l'apprentissage, la compétition, l'émulation et la coercition. La diffusion, définie par l'interdépendance des différents acteurs, est un système complexe dont l'étude est rendue possible par les simulations centrées sur les agents. Au niveau méthodologique, nous présenterons également les principaux concepts sous-jacents aux simulations, notamment la complexité et l'émergence. De plus, l'utilisation de simulations informatiques implique le développement d'un algorithme et sa programmation. Cette dernière réalisée, les agents peuvent interagir, avec comme résultat l'émergence d'un phénomène de diffusion, dérivé de l'apprentissage, où le choix d'un agent dépend en grande partie de ceux faits par ses voisins. De plus, ce phénomène suit une courbe en S caractéristique, poussant à la création de régions politiquement identiques, mais divergentes au niveau globale. Enfin, l'efficacité moyenne, dans ce monde simulé, suit une courbe en J, ce qui signifie qu'il faut du temps, non seulement pour que la politique montre ses effets, mais également pour qu'un pays introduise la politique la plus efficace. En conclusion, la diffusion est un phénomène émergent résultant d'interactions complexes dont les résultats du processus tel que développé dans ce modèle correspondent tant aux attentes théoriques qu'aux résultats pratiques.

When nightclub security agents assault clients more insight through a qualitative approach.

Between 2007 and 2009, aggressions by security agents of nightclubs on clients increased from 6% to 10% among community violence situations encountered at the Violence Medical Unit (VMU) at the Lausanne University Hospital in Switzerland. Most victims were young men who had been drinking alcohol before the assault. About one quarter (25.7%) presented with one or several fractures, all of them in the head area. (For more details, refer to the previous article "When nightclub security agents assault clients" published in 2012(1).) Following this first study, we performed a second qualitative study in order to bring more information about the context and highlight victims' behaviors and experiences. Four themes emerged: how the assault began; the assault itself; third-party involvement; and the psychological state of victims when they consulted the VMU. The findings of this second study complemented the statistical results of the first study by showing under what circumstances security agents of nightclubs respond with physical violence to situations they consider a threat to security. Furthermore, the study described consequences for the victims that could be quite serious. Our findings support the need for nightclubs to improve selection and training of security staff.

2011 lAAF World Championships in Daegu: blood tests for all athletes in the framework of the Athlete Biological Passport.

The 2011 International Association of Athletics Federation (IAAF) World Championships took place in Daegu, Korea. For the first time, all athletes were blood tested prior to the competition in order to give a clear signal to the world athletic community of the wish to enter into the era of the Athlete Biological Passport and fight against doping in their sport. The hematological parameters were measured on site. Thus, a mobile-accredited laboratory for blood testing was created in Daegu. Two serum tubes were collected for clinical chemistry and hormonal analyses in order to build the bases of the endocrine and the androgen (steroid) modules of the Athlete Biological Passport in blood. This paper describes some of the main challenges the project faced with regard to the large number of athletes, competing in different disciplines, and the logistic problems that had to be solved for smart implementation of one of the most complex operations organized in the last decade in the fight against doping.

Ultra high performance supercritical fluid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry for screening of doping agents. I: Investigation of mobile phase and MS conditions.

The conditions for the analysis of selected doping substances by UHPSFC-MS/MS were optimized to ensure suitable peak shapes and maximized MS responses. A representative mixture of 31 acidic and basic doping agents was analyzed, in both ESI+ and ESI- modes. The best compromise for all compounds in terms of MS sensitivity and chromatographic performance was obtained when adding 2% water and 10mM ammonium formate in the CO2/MeOH mobile phase. Beside mobile phase, the nature of the make-up solvent added for interfacing UHPSFC with MS was also evaluated. Ethanol was found to be the best candidate as it was able to compensate for the negative effect of 2% water addition in ESI- mode and provided a suitable MS response for all doping agents. Sensitivity of the optimized UHPSFC-MS/MS method was finally assessed and compared to the results obtained in conventional UHPLC-MS/MS. Sensitivity was improved by 5-100-fold in UHPSFC-MS/MS vs. UHPLC-MS/MS for 56% of compounds, while only one compound (bumetanide) offered a significantly higher MS response (4-fold) under UHPLC-MS/MS conditions. In the second paper of this series, the optimal conditions for UHPSFC-MS/MS analysis will be employed to screen >100 doping agents in urine matrix and results will be compared to those obtained by conventional UHPLC-MS/MS.

Epidemiology and injury patterns of patients consulting following assault by nightclub security agents in a university hospital emergency service and an associated specialised forensic consultation

Introduction: The Violence Medical Unit (VMU), a specialised forensic medical consultation, was created at the Lausanne university Hospital in 2006. All patients consulting at the ED for interpersonal violencerelated injury are referred to the VMU, which provides forensic documentation of the injury and referral to the relevant community based victim-support organisations within 48 hours of the ED visit. This frees the ED medical staff from forensic injury documentation and legal/social referral, tasks for which they lack both time and training. Among community violence, assaults by nightclub security agents against patrons have increased from 6% to 10% between 2007 and 2009. We set out to characterise the demographics, assault mechanisms, subsequent injuries, prior alcohol intake and ED & VMU costs incurred by this group of patients. Methods: We retrospectively included all patients consulting at the VMU due to assault by nightclub security agents from January 2007 to December 2009. Data was obtained from ED & VMU medical, nursing and administrative records. Results: Our sample included 70 patients, of which 64 were referred by the CHUV ED. The victims were typically young (median age 29) males (93%). 77% of assaults occurred on the weekend between 12 PM and 4 AM, and 73% of the victims were under the influence of alcohol. 83% of the patients were punched, kicked and/or head-butted; 9% had been struck with a blunt instrument. 80% of the injuries were in the head and neck area and 19% of the victims sustained fractures. 21% of the victims were prescribed medical leave. Total ED & VMU costs averaged 1048 SFr. Conclusion: Medical staff treating this population of assault victims must be aware of the assault mechanisms and injury patterns, in particular the high probability of fractures, in order to provide adequate diagnosis and care. Associated inebriation mandates liberal use of radiology, as delayed or missed diagnosis may have medical, medicolegal and legal implications. Emergency medical services play an important role in detecting and reporting of such incidents. Centralised management of the forensic documentation facilitates referral to victim support organisations and epidemiological data collection. Magnitudes and trends of the different types of violence can be determined, and this information can be then impact public safety management policies.

Photodynamic therapy : a pathway for enhanced delivery of liposomal doxorubicin to tumors

Abstract Part I : Background : Isolated lung perfusion (ILP) was designed for the treatment of loco-regional malignancies of the lung. In contrast to intravenous (IV) drug application, ILP allows for a selective administration of cytostatic agents such as doxorubicin to the lung while sparing non-affected tissues. However, the clinical results with ILP were disappointing. Doxorubicinbased ILP on sarcoma rodent lungs suggested high overall doxorubicin concentrations within the perfused lung but a poor penetration of the cytostatic agent into tumors. The same holds true for liposomal-encapsulated macromolecular doxorubicin (LiporubicinTM) In specific conditions, low-dose photodynamic therapy (PDT) can enhance the distribution of macromolecules across the endothelial bamer in solid tumors. It was recently postulated that tumor neovessels were more responsive to PDT than the normal vasculature. We therefore hypothesized that Visudyne®-mediated PDT could selectively increase liposomal doxorubicin (LiporubicinTM) uptake in sarcoma tumors to rodent lungs during intravenous (IV) drug administration and isolated lung perfusion (ILP). Material and Methods : A sarcoma tumor was generated in the left lung of Fisher rats by subpleural injection of a sarcoma cell ,suspension via thoracotomy. Ten days later, LiporubicinTM is administered IV or by single pass antegrade ILP, with or without Visudyne® -mediated low-dose PDT pre-treatment of the sarcoma bearing lung. The drug concentration and distribution were assessed separately in tumors and lung tissues by high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC) and fluorescence microscopy (FNI~, respectively. Results : PDT pretreatment before IV LiporubicinTM administration resulted in a significantly higher tumor drug uptake and tumor to lung drug ratio compared to IV drug injection alone without affecting the blood flow and drug distribution in the lung. PDT pre-treatment before LiporubicinTM-based ILP also resulted in a higher tumor drug uptake and a higher tumor to lung drug ratio compared to ILP alone, however, these differences were not significant due to a heterogeneous blood flow drug distribution during ILP which was further accentuated by PDT. Conclusions : Low-dose Visudyne®-mediated PDT pre-treatment has the potential to selectively enhance liposomal encapsulated doxorubicin uptake in tumors but not in normal lung tissue after IV drug application in a rat model of sarcoma tumors to the lung which opens new perspectives for the treatment of superficially spreading chemoresistant tumors of the chest cavity such as mesothelioma or malignant effusion. However, the impact of PDT on macromolecular drug uptake during ILP is limited since its therapeutic advantage is circumvented by ILP-induced heterogeneicity of blood flow and drug distribution Abstract Part II Background : Photodynamic therapy (PDT) with Visudyne® acts by direct cellular phototoxicity and/or by an indirect vascular-mediated effect. Here, we demonstrate that the vessel integrity interruption by PDT can promote the extravasation of a macromolecular agent in normal tissue. To obtain extravasation in normal tissue PDT conditions were one order of magnitude more intensive than the ones in tissue containing neovessels reported in the literature. Material and Methods : Fluorescein isothiocyanate dextran (FITC-D, 2000kDa), a macromolecular agent, was intravenously injected 10 minutes before (LKO group, n=14) or 2 hours (LK2 group, n=16) after Visudyne® mediated PDT in nude mice bearing a dorsal skin fold chamber. Control animals had no PDT (CTRL group, n=8). The extravasation of FITC-D from blood vessels in striated muscle tissue was observed in both groups in real-time for up to 2500 seconds after injection. We also monitored PDT-induced leukocyte rolling in-vivo and assessed, by histology, the corresponding inflammatory reaction score in the dorsal skin fold chambers. Results : In all animals, at the applied PDT conditions, FITC-D extravasation was significantly enhanced in the PDT treated areas as compared to the surrounding non-treated areas (p<0.0001). There was no FITC-D leakage in the control animals. Animals from the LKO group had significantly less FITC-D extravasation than those from the LK2 group (p = 0.0002). In the LKO group FITC-D leakage correlated significantly with the inflammation (p < 0.001). Conclusions: At the selected conditions, Visudyne-mediated PDT promotes vascular leakage and FITC-D extravasation into the interstitial space of normal tissue. The intensity of vascular leakage depends on the time interval between PDT and FITC-D injection. This concept could be used to locally modulate the delivery of macromolecules in vivo. Résumé : La perfusion cytostatique isolée du poumon permet une administration sélective des agents cytostatiques sans implication de la circulation systémique avec une forte accumulation au niveau du poumon mais une faible pénétration dans les tumeurs. La thérapie photodynamique (PDT) qui consiste en l'application d'un sensibilisateur activé par lumière laser non- thermique d'une longueur d'onde définie permet dans certaines conditions, une augmentation de la pénétration des agents cytostatiques macromoléculaires à travers la barrière endothéliale tumorale. Nous avons exploré cet avantage thérapeutique de la PDT dans un modèle expérimental afin d'augmenter d'une manière sélective la pénétration tumorale de la doxorubicin pegylée, liposomal- encapsulée macromoléculaire (Liporubicin). Une tumeur sarcomateuse a été générée au niveau du poumon de rongeur suivie d'administration de Liporubicin, soit par voie intraveineuse soit par perfusion isolée du poumon (ILP). Une partie des animaux ont reçus un prétraitement de la tumeur et du poumon sous jacent par PDT avec Visudyne comme photosensibilisateur. Les résultats ont démontrés que la PDT permet, sous certaines conditions, une augmentation sélective de Liporubicin dans les tumeurs mais pas dans le parenchyme pulmonaire sous jacent. Après administration intraveineuse de Liporubicin et prétraitement par PDT, l'accumulation dans les tumeurs était significative par rapport au poumon, et aux tumeurs sans PDT. Le même phénomène est observé après ILP du poumon. Cependant, les différences avec ou sans PDT n'étaient pas significatives lié à und distribution hétérogène de Liporubicin dans le poumon perfusé après ILP. Dans une deuxième partie de l'expérimentation, nous avons exploré la microscopie intra-vitale pour déterminer l'extravasion des substances macromoléculaires (FITS) à travers la barrière endothéliale avec ou sans Visudyne-PDT au niveau des chambres dorsales des souris nues. Les résultats montrent qu'après PDT, l'extravasion de FITS a été augmentée de manière significative par rapport au tissu non traité. L'intensité de l'extravasion de FITS dépendait également de l'intervalle entre PDT et injection de FITS. En conclusion, les expérimentations montrent que la PDT est capable, sous certaines conditions, d'augmenter de manière significative l'extravasion des macromolécules à travers la barrière endothéliale et leur accumulation dans des tumeurs mais pas dans le parenchyme pulmonaire. Ces résultats permettent une nouvelle perspective de traitement pour des tumeurs superficielles intrathoraciques chimio-résistent comme l'épanchement pleural malin ou le mésothéliome pleural.

Oral insecticidal activity of root colonizing Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0: a biocontrol agent with potential to control plant pests and diseases

The application of microbial biocontrol agents for the control of fungal plant diseases and plant insect pests is a promising approach in the development of environmentally benign pest management strategies. The ideal biocontrol organism would be a bacterium or a fungus with activity against both, insect pests and fungal pathogens. Here we demonstrate the oral insecticidal activity of the root colonizing Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0, which is so far known for its capacity to efficiently suppress fungal plant pathogens. Feeding assays with CHA0-sprayed leaves showed that this strain displays oral insecticidal activity and is able to efficiently kill larvae of three important insect pests. We further show data indicating that the Fit insect toxin produced by CHA0 and also metabolites controlled by the global regulator GacA contribute to oral insect toxicity.

Artificial Snow Optimization in Winter Sport Destinations Using a Multi-agent Simulation

This paper presents the Juste-Neige system for predicting the snow height on the ski runs of a resort using a multi-agent simulation software. Its aim is to facilitate snow cover management in order to i) reduce the production cost of artificial snow and to improve the profit margin for the companies managing the ski resorts; and ii) to reduce the water and energy consumption, and thus to reduce the environmental impact, by producing only the snow needed for a good skiing experience. The software provides maps with the predicted snow heights for up to 13 days. On these maps, the areas most exposed to snow erosion are highlighted. The software proceeds in three steps: i) interpolation of snow height measurements with a neural network; ii) local meteorological forecasts for every ski resort; iii) simulation of the impact caused by skiers using a multi-agent system. The software has been evaluated in the Swiss ski resort of Verbier and provides useful predictions.