Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

Misconceptions about fructose-containing sugars and their role in the obesity epidemic.

A causal role of fructose intake in the aetiology of the global obesity epidemic has been proposed in recent years. This proposition, however, rests on controversial interpretations of two distinct lines of research. On one hand, in mechanistic intervention studies, detrimental metabolic effects have been observed after excessive isolated fructose intakes in animals and human subjects. On the other hand, food disappearance data indicate that fructose consumption from added sugars has increased over the past decades and paralleled the increase in obesity. Both lines of research are presently insufficient to demonstrate a causal role of fructose in metabolic diseases, however. Most mechanistic intervention studies were performed on subjects fed large amounts of pure fructose, while fructose is ordinarily ingested together with glucose. The use of food disappearance data does not accurately reflect food consumption, and hence cannot be used as evidence of a causal link between fructose intake and obesity. Based on a thorough review of the literature, we demonstrate that fructose, as commonly consumed in mixed carbohydrate sources, does not exert specific metabolic effects that can account for an increase in body weight. Consequently, public health recommendations and policies aiming at reducing fructose consumption only, without additional diet and lifestyle targets, would be disputable and impractical. Although the available evidence indicates that the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages is associated with body-weight gain, and it may be that fructose is among the main constituents of these beverages, energy overconsumption is much more important to consider in terms of the obesity epidemic.

Liberties and constraints of the normative approach to evaluation and decision in forensic science: a discussion towards overcoming some common misconceptions

At a time when disciplined inference and decision making under uncertainty represent common aims to participants in legal proceedings, the scientific community is remarkably heterogenous in its attitudes as to how these goals ought to be achieved. Probability and decision theory exert a considerable influence, and we think by all reason rightly do so, but they go against a mainstream of thinking that does not embrace-or is not aware of-the 'normative' character of this body of theory. It is normative, in the sense understood in this article, in that it prescribes particular properties, typically (logical) coherence, to which reasoning and decision making ought to conform. Disregarding these properties can result in diverging views which are occasionally used as an argument against the theory, or as a pretext for not following it. Typical examples are objections according to which people, both in everyday life but also individuals involved at various levels in the judicial process, find the theory difficult to understand and to apply. A further objection is that the theory does not reflect how people actually behave. This article aims to point out in what sense these examples misinterpret the analytical framework in its normative perspective. Through examples borrowed mostly from forensic science contexts, it is argued that so-called intuitive scientific attitudes are particularly liable to such misconceptions. These attitudes are contrasted with a statement of the actual liberties and constraints of probability and decision theory and the view according to which this theory is normative.

Normative Topographic ERP Analyses of Speed of Speech Processing and Grammar Before and After Grammatical Treatment.

Typically developing (TD) preschoolers and age-matched preschoolers with specific language impairment (SLI) received event-related potentials (ERPs) to four monosyllabic speech sounds prior to treatment and, in the SLI group, after 6 months of grammatical treatment. Before treatment, the TD group processed speech sounds faster than the SLI group. The SLI group increased the speed of their speech processing after treatment. Posttreatment speed of speech processing predicted later impairment in comprehending phrase elaboration in the SLI group. During the treatment phase, change in speed of speech processing predicted growth rate of grammar in the SLI group.

Language and syntactic impairment following stroke in late bilingual aphasics.

PURPOSE: Bilingual aphasia generally affects both languages. However, the age of acquisition of the second language (L2) seems to play a role in the anatomo-functional correlation of the syntactical/grammatical processes, thus potentially influencing the L2 syntactic impairment following a stroke. The present study aims to analyze the influence of late age of acquisition of the L2 on syntactic impairment in bilingual aphasic patients. METHODS: Twelve late bilingual participants (speaking French as L2 and either English, German, Italian or Spanish as L1) with stroke-induced aphasia participated in the study. The MAST or BAT aphasia batteries were used to evaluate overall aphasia score. An auditory syntactic judgement task was developed and used to test participants syntactic performance. RESULTS: The overall aphasia scores did not differ between L1 and L2. In a multiple case analysis, only one patient had lower scores in L2. However, four patients presented significantly lower performances in syntactic processing in the late L2 than in their native language (L1). In these four patients the infarct was localized, either exclusively or at least partially, in the pre-rolandic region. CONCLUSION: This pilot study suggests that, in late bilingual aphasics, syntactic judgment abilities may be more severely impaired in L2, and that this syntactic deficit is most likely to occur following anterior lesions.

Dire le futur au Moyen Age : du prologue au récit : du Chevalier au Lion de Chrétien de Troyes au Chevalier au Lion de Pierre Sala

S'inscrivant dans le domaine de l'analyse des relations temporelles dans les textes, la présente étude est consacrée à la notion du futur définie en tant qu'anticipation sur les événements à venir dans le récit. Ainsi, la recherche en question se propose de mettre en lumière les différents mécanismes d'anticipation propres aux récits d'aventures au Moyen Âge. Recourant aux moyens heuristiques existants (les bases de la théorie de la réception telle qu'elle est représentée dans les travaux de Jauss, Eco et Greimas), cette thèse se concentre sur l'étude du prologue de l'oeuvre littéraire dont elle élabore une grille de lecture particulière qui tient compte de la complexité de la notion du futur envisagée aux plans grammatical (formes verbales du futur), rhétorique (la figure de la prolepse) et littéraire (les scénarios et les isotopies). La démarche de la lecture détaillée du prologue adoptée au cours de ce travail s'applique d'abord au Chevalier au Lion de Chrétien de Troyes, texte fondateur du corpus, qui constitue, pour parler avec Philippe Walter, un vrai « drame du temps ». L'étude des mécanismes d'anticipation mis en place dans le prologue se prolonge ensuite dans les chapitres consacrés à Claris et Laris et au Chevalier au Lion de Pierre Sala, deux réécritures du célèbre roman du maître champenois. Datant, respectivement, du XIIIe et du début du XVIe siècle, ces oeuvres permettent de saisir le chemin parcouru par le futur dans son aspect thématique et diachronique, ce qui est particulièrement propice au repérage des critères qui influencent l'attente du lecteur par rapport aux événements à venir au fil des siècles. Ainsi, à côté des moyens d'expression « standards » du futur (scénarios intertextuels et isotopies), la présente recherche fait apparaître d'autres facteurs qui influencent l'anticipation, notamment le procédé de la disputatio, le recours à la satire, la démarche de l'engagement indirect et l'opposition vers/prose. La seconde partie de la thèse qui traite, d'un côté, des récits consacrés à la fée Mélusine de Jean d'Arras et de Coudrette, du Livre du Cuer d'amours espris de René d'Anjou de l'autre, sert à vérifier dans quelle mesure la démarche choisie s'applique à des oeuvres du Moyen Âge tardif qui combinent des éléments empruntés à la tradition antérieure avec des éléments d'autre provenance. L'analyse de Mélusine et du Livre du Cuer conduit à ajouter deux facteurs supplémentaires qui influencent l'attente du lecteur, à savoir la démarche de l'engagement partiel et le recours au genre judiciaire. Cette étude démontre que le traitement du futur est d'un enjeu capital pour lire les textes du Moyen Âge, car il permet au lecteur, dès le prologue, de reconnaître la fin vers laquelle tend le récit et de faire par là- même une lecture enrichie, supérieure à d'autres. Telling the Future in the Middle Ages : from the Prologue to the Narrative. From Chrétien de Troyes ' Chevalier au Lion to Pierre Sala 's Chevalier au Lion. Part of the analyses of the time based relations within the texts, the present study deals with the notion of future characterized as an anticipation of the events to come in the narrative. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to bring to light the various mechanisms of anticipation peculiar to the narratives of adventures in the Middle Ages. Making the use of the existing heuristic instruments (the bases of the theory of the reception as it presents itself in the works by Jauss, Eco and Greimas), this thesis is dedicated to the study of the prologue of the work of fiction by means of a particular key for reading which takes into account the complexity of the notion of future with regard to its grammatical side (future tenses), to its rhetorical side (prolepse) and to its literary side (scenario and isotopy). First of all, the close reading of the prologue used in this work is applied to Chrétien de Troyes's Chevalier au Lion (Lion Knight), the founding text of our literary corpus, which represents, according to Philippe Walter, the real « drama of Time ». Then, the study of the mechanisms of anticipation in the prologue is carried over to the chapters devoted to Claris et Laris and to Pierre Sala's Chevalier au Lion, two romances that rewrite Chrétien de Troyes' famous work. Written, respectively, in the XIIIth and in the beginning of the XVI century, these romances enable the reader to ascertain the changes in the manner of telling the future from the thematic and diachronic point of view : this is particularly convenient to the identification of the criteria which influence the reader's expectations relative to the future events in the course of the centuries. Therefore, next to the « standard » means of expression of future (intertextual scenario and isotopy), the present study reveals other factors which influence the anticipation, in particular the method of the disputatio, the use of the satire, the approach of the indirect commitment and the verse/prose opposition. The second part of the thesis which deals with the narratives concerning the fairy Melusine written by Jean d'Arras and by Coudrette on one hand, with René d'Anjou's Livre du Cuer d'amours espris on the other hand, is used to verify to what extent the chosen approach applies to the works of fiction of the Late Middle Ages that combine the elements from the previous tradition with the elements of other origin. The analysis of Melusine's romances and of the Livre du Cuer brings us to add two new factors which influence the reader's expectations : the approach of the partial commitment, and the use of the legal discourse. This study demonstrates that the manner of telling the future is of the utmost importance to read the texts of the Middle Ages, because it enables the reader to know the end of the story from the very beginning, from the prologue, thus leading to a richer and superior reading.

Ultraviolet damage to the eye revisited: eye-sun protection factor (E-SPF®), a new ultraviolet protection label for eyewear.

Ultraviolet (UV) radiation potentially damages the skin, the immune system, and structures of the eye. A useful UV sun protection for the skin has been established. Since a remarkable body of evidence shows an association between UV radiation and damage to structures of the eye, eye protection is important, but a reliable and practical tool to assess and compare the UV-protective properties of lenses has been lacking. Among the general lay public, misconceptions on eye-sun protection have been identified. For example, sun protection is mainly ascribed to sunglasses, but less so to clear lenses. Skin malignancies in the periorbital region are frequent, but usual topical skin protection does not include the lids. Recent research utilized exact dosimetry and demonstrated relevant differences in UV burden to the eye and skin at a given ambient irradiation. Chronic UV effects on the cornea and lens are cumulative, so effective UV protection of the eyes is important for all age groups and should be used systematically. Protection of children's eyes is especially important, because UV transmittance is higher at a very young age, allowing higher levels of UV radiation to reach the crystalline lens and even the retina. Sunglasses as well as clear lenses (plano and prescription) effectively reduce transmittance of UV radiation. However, an important share of the UV burden to the eye is explained by back reflection of radiation from lenses to the eye. UV radiation incident from an angle of 135°-150° behind a lens wearer is reflected from the back side of lenses. The usual antireflective coatings considerably increase reflection of UV radiation. To provide reliable labeling of the protective potential of lenses, an eye-sun protection factor (E-SPF®) has been developed. It integrates UV transmission as well as UV reflectance of lenses. The E-SPF® compares well with established skin-sun protection factors and provides clear messages to eye health care providers and to lay consumers.

Mucosal healing and deep remission: What does it mean?

The use of specific terms under different meanings and varying definitions has always been a source of confusion in science. When we point our efforts towards an evidence based medicine for inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) the same is true: Terms such as "mucosal healing" or "deep remission" as endpoints in clinical trials or treatment goals in daily patient care may contribute to misconceptions if meanings change over time or definitions are altered. It appears to be useful to first have a look at the development of terms and their definitions, to assess their intrinsic and context-independent problems and then to analyze the different relevance in present-day clinical studies and trials. The purpose of such an attempt would be to gain clearer insights into the true impact of the clinical findings behind the terms. It may also lead to a better defined use of those terms for future studies. The terms "mucosal healing" and "deep remission" have been introduced in recent years as new therapeutic targets in the treatment of IBD patients. Several clinical trials, cohort studies or inception cohorts provided data that the long term disease course is better, when mucosal healing is achieved. However, it is still unclear whether continued or increased therapeutic measures will aid or improve mucosal healing for patients in clinical remission. Clinical trials are under way to answer this question. Attention should be paid to clearly address what levels of IBD activity are looked at. In the present review article authors aim to summarize the current evidence available on mucosal healing and deep remission and try to highlight their value and position in the everyday decision making for gastroenterologists.

Whole-cell living biosensors--are they ready for environmental application?

Since the development of the first whole-cell living biosensor or bioreporter about 15 years ago, construction and testing of new genetically modified microorganisms for environmental sensing and reporting has proceeded at an ever increasing rate. One and a half decades appear as a reasonable time span for a new technology to reach the maturity needed for application and commercial success. It seems, however, that the research into cellular biosensors is still mostly in a proof-of-principle or demonstration phase and not close to extensive or commercial use outside of academia. In this review, we consider the motivations for bioreporter developments and discuss the suitability of extant bioreporters for the proposed applications to stimulate complementary research and to help researchers to develop realistic objectives. This includes the identification of some popular misconceptions about the qualities and shortcomings of bioreporters.

Facilitatory and interfering effects of neighbourhood density on speech production: Evidence from aphasic errors.

In a system where tens of thousands of words are made up of a limited number of phonemes, many words are bound to sound alike. This similarity of the words in the lexicon as characterized by phonological neighbourhood density (PhND) has been shown to affect speed and accuracy of word comprehension and production. Whereas there is a consensus about the interfering nature of neighbourhood effects in comprehension, the language production literature offers a more contradictory picture with mainly facilitatory but also interfering effects reported on word production. Here we report both of these two types of effects in the same study. Multiple regression mixed models analyses were conducted on PhND effects on errors produced in a naming task by a group of 21 participants with aphasia. These participants produced more formal errors (interfering effect) for words in dense phonological neighbourhoods, but produced fewer nonwords and semantic errors (a facilitatory effect) with increasing density. In order to investigate the nature of these opposite effects of PhND, we further analysed a subset of formal errors and nonword errors by distinguishing errors differing on a single phoneme from the target (corresponding to the definition of phonological neighbours) from those differing on two or more phonemes. This analysis confirmed that only formal errors that were phonological neighbours of the target increased in dense neighbourhoods, while all other errors decreased. Based on additional observations favouring a lexical origin of these formal errors (they exceeded the probability of producing a real-word error by chance, were of a higher frequency, and preserved the grammatical category of the targets), we suggest that the interfering effect of PhND is due to competition between lexical neighbours and target words in dense neighbourhoods.