Quelques abus de la statistique dans la recherche médicale [Various abuses of statistics in medical research].

Statistics has become an indispensable tool in biomedical research. Thanks, in particular, to computer science, the researcher has easy access to elementary "classical" procedures. These are often of a "confirmatory" nature: their aim is to test hypotheses (for example the efficacy of a treatment) prior to experimentation. However, doctors often use them in situations more complex than foreseen, to discover interesting data structures and formulate hypotheses. This inverse process may lead to misuse which increases the number of "statistically proven" results in medical publications. The help of a professional statistician thus becomes necessary. Moreover, good, simple "exploratory" techniques are now available. In addition, medical data contain quite a high percentage of outliers (data that deviate from the majority). With classical methods it is often very difficult (even for a statistician!) to detect them and the reliability of results becomes questionable. New, reliable ("robust") procedures have been the subject of research for the past two decades. Their practical introduction is one of the activities of the Statistics and Data Processing Department of the University of Social and Preventive Medicine, Lausanne.

A research agenda for malaria eradication: vaccines.

Vaccines could be a crucial component of efforts to eradicate malaria. Current attempts to develop malaria vaccines are primarily focused on Plasmodium falciparum and are directed towards reducing morbidity and mortality. Continued support for these efforts is essential, but if malaria vaccines are to be used as part of a repertoire of tools for elimination or eradication of malaria, they will need to have an impact on malaria transmission. We introduce the concept of "vaccines that interrupt malaria transmission" (VIMT), which includes not only "classical" transmission-blocking vaccines that target the sexual and mosquito stages but also pre-erythrocytic and asexual stage vaccines that have an effect on transmission. VIMT may also include vaccines that target the vector to disrupt parasite development in the mosquito. Importantly, if eradication is to be achieved, malaria vaccine development efforts will need to target other malaria parasite species, especially Plasmodium vivax, where novel therapeutic vaccines against hypnozoites or preventive vaccines with effect against multiple stages could have enormous impact. A target product profile (TPP) for VIMT is proposed and a research agenda to address current knowledge gaps and develop tools necessary for design and development of VIMT is presented.

High altitude, a natural research laboratory for the study of cardiovascular physiology and pathophysiology.

High altitude constitutes an exciting natural laboratory for medical research. Although initially, the aim of high-altitude research was to understand the adaption of the organism to hypoxia and find treatments for altitude-related diseases, during the past decade or so, the scope of this research has broadened considerably. Two important observations led the foundation for the broadening of the scientific scope of high-altitude research. First, high-altitude pulmonary edema represents a unique model that allows studying fundamental mechanisms of pulmonary hypertension and lung edema in humans. Second, the ambient hypoxia associated with high-altitude exposure facilitates the detection of pulmonary and systemic vascular dysfunction at an early stage. Here, we will review studies that, by capitalizing on these observations, have led to the description of novel mechanisms underpinning lung edema and pulmonary hypertension and to the first direct demonstration of fetal programming of vascular dysfunction in humans.

Vom Finanz- zum Wissenschaftsbetrug : Methode, den Irrungen in der medizinischen Literatur beizukommen [From financial to scientific fraud : Methods to detect discrepancies in the medical literature].

Fraud is as old as Mankind. There are an enormous number of historical documents which show the interaction between truth and untruth; therefore it is not really surprising that the prevalence of publication discrepancies is increasing. More surprising is that new cases especially in the medical field generate such a huge astonishment. In financial mathematics a statistical tool for detection of fraud is known which uses the knowledge of Newcomb and Benford regarding the distribution of natural numbers. This distribution is not equal and lower numbers are more likely to be detected compared to higher ones. In this investigation all numbers contained in the blinded abstracts of the 2009 annual meeting of the Swiss Society of Anesthesia and Resuscitation (SGAR) were recorded and analyzed regarding the distribution. A manipulated abstract was also included in the investigation. The χ(2)-test was used to determine statistical differences between expected and observed counts of numbers. There was also a faked abstract integrated in the investigation. A p<0.05 was considered significant. The distribution of the 1,800 numbers in the 77 submitted abstracts followed Benford's law. The manipulated abstract was detected by statistical means (difference in expected versus observed p<0.05). Statistics cannot prove whether the content is true or not but can give some serious hints to look into the details in such conspicuous material. These are the first results of a test for the distribution of numbers presented in medical research.

The Swiss regulatory framework for pædiatric health research

Medical research on minors entails both risks and benefits. Under Swiss law, clinical trials on children, including nontherapeutic drug trials, are permissible. However, ethics committees must systematically verify that all clinical studies have a favorable risk-benefit profile. Additional safeguards are designed to ensure that children are not unnecessarily involved in research and that proper consent is always obtained. Federal Swiss law is undergoing revision to extend these protections beyond clinical trials to a broad array of health research. The Swiss drug agency also seeks to improve the incentives for pharmaceutical firms to develop new paediatric drugs and relevant paediatric drug labels.

Comparing impact and cost-effectiveness of primary prevention strategies for lipid-lowering.

BACKGROUND: Lipid-lowering therapy is costly but effective at reducing coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness and public health impact of Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) guidelines and compare with a range of risk- and age-based alternative strategies. DESIGN: The CHD Policy Model, a Markov-type cost-effectiveness model. DATA SOURCES: National surveys (1999 to 2004), vital statistics (2000), the Framingham Heart Study (1948 to 2000), other published data, and a direct survey of statin costs (2008). TARGET POPULATION: U.S. population age 35 to 85 years. Time Horizon: 2010 to 2040. PERSPECTIVE: Health care system. INTERVENTION: Lowering of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins). OUTCOME MEASURE: Incremental cost-effectiveness. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Full adherence to ATP III primary prevention guidelines would require starting (9.7 million) or intensifying (1.4 million) statin therapy for 11.1 million adults and would prevent 20,000 myocardial infarctions and 10,000 CHD deaths per year at an annual net cost of $3.6 billion ($42,000/QALY) if low-intensity statins cost $2.11 per pill. The ATP III guidelines would be preferred over alternative strategies if society is willing to pay $50,000/QALY and statins cost $1.54 to $2.21 per pill. At higher statin costs, ATP III is not cost-effective; at lower costs, more liberal statin-prescribing strategies would be preferred; and at costs less than $0.10 per pill, treating all persons with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels greater than 3.4 mmol/L (>130 mg/dL) would yield net cost savings. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Results are sensitive to the assumptions that LDL cholesterol becomes less important as a risk factor with increasing age and that little disutility results from taking a pill every day. LIMITATION: Randomized trial evidence for statin effectiveness is not available for all subgroups. CONCLUSION: The ATP III guidelines are relatively cost-effective and would have a large public health impact if implemented fully in the United States. Alternate strategies may be preferred, however, depending on the cost of statins and how much society is willing to pay for better health outcomes. FUNDING: Flight Attendants' Medical Research Institute and the Swanson Family Fund. The Framingham Heart Study and Framingham Offspring Study are conducted and supported by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Effort, reward and self-reported mental health: a simulation study on negative affectivity bias.

Background : In the present article, we propose an alternative method for dealing with negative affectivity (NA) biases in research, while investigating the association between a deleterious psychosocial environment at work and poor mental health. First, we investigated how strong NA must be to cause an observed correlation between the independent and dependent variables. Second, we subjectively assessed whether NA can have a large enough impact on a large enough number of subjects to invalidate the observed correlations between dependent and independent variables.Methods : We simulated 10,000 populations of 300 subjects each, using the marginal distribution of workers in an actual population that had answered the Siegrist's questionnaire on effort and reward imbalance (ERI) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ).Results : The results of the present study suggested that simulated NA has a minimal effect on the mean scores for effort and reward. However, the correlations between the effort and reward imbalance (ERI) ratio and the GHQ score might be important, even in simulated populations with a limited NA.Conclusions : When investigating the relationship between the ERI ratio and the GHQ score, we suggest the following rules for the interpretation of the results: correlations with an explained variance of 5% and below should be considered with caution; correlations with an explained variance between 5% and 10% may result from NA, although this effect does not seem likely; and correlations with an explained variance of 10% and above are not likely to be the result of NA biases. [Authors]

Serum uric acid and gout: from the past to molecular biology.

Abstract Objectives: This review will briefly present the epidemiology and risk factors of gout, with a focus on recent advances. Methods: Key papers for inclusion were identified by a PubMed search, and articles were selected according to their relevance for the topic, according to authors' judgment. Results and conclusions: Gout therapy has remained very much unchanged for the last 50 years, but recently we have seen the approval of another gout treatment: the xanthine oxidase inhibitor febuxostat, and several new drugs are now in the late stages of clinical testing. Together with our enhanced level of understanding of the pathophysiology of the inflammatory process involved, we are entering a new era for the treatment of gout.

Prevalence and risk factors for gastro-esophageal reflux disease in the North-Eastern part of Bangladesh.

Despite a common disorder population-based data on gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD) in Bangladesh is lacking. This epidemiological study was designed to determine the prevalence of GERD and its association with lifestyle factors. This population-based cross-sectional study was done by door to door interview of randomly selected persons in both urban and rural areas of North Eastern part of Bangladesh by using a validated questionnaire. A cutoff point 3 was chosen as a valid and reliable scale to confirm GERD. Statistical analysis was done by SPSS-12 version and the level of significance was set at P < or = 0.05. A total of 2000 persons with an age range of 15 to 85 years were interviewed; 1000 subjects from urban area and 1000 from rural area. Among the study subjects 1064 were male and 936 were female. A total of 110 persons (5.5%) were found to have GERD symptoms and among them 47 were men and 67 were women. The monthly, weekly and daily prevalence of heart-burn and or acid regurgitation was 5.5%, 5.25% and 2.5% respectively. Female sex, increased age and lower level of education were significantly associated with GERD symptoms. Prevalence was found more among city dwellers (approximately 6.0% versus 4.8%), married (6.23%, n = 86), widowed/widowers (16.83%, n = 17) and day labourer (8.78%). Level of education inversely influenced the prevalence. No significant association of GERD was found with body mass index (BMI) and smoking. Prevalence of GERD in North-Eastern part of Bangladesh was lower than that of western world. Prevalence was found higher in urban population, women, married, widowed/widowers and in poor an dilliterate persons. BMI and smoking had no significant association with GERD.

Respiratory symptoms in preterm infants: burden of disease in the first year of life.

OBJECTIVE: While respiratory symptoms in the first year of life are relatively well described for term infants, data for preterm infants are scarce. We aimed to describe the burden of respiratory disease in a group of preterm infants with and without bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) and to assess the association of respiratory symptoms with perinatal, genetic and environmental risk factors. METHODS: Single centre birth cohort study: prospective recording of perinatal risk factors and retrospective assessment of respiratory symptoms during the first year of life by standardised questionnaires. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cough and wheeze (common symptoms), re-hospitalisation and need for inhalation therapy (severe outcomes). PATIENTS: 126 preterms (median gestational age 28.7 weeks; 78 with, 48 without BPD) hospitalised at the University Children's Hospital of Bern, Switzerland 1999-2006. RESULTS: Cough occurred in 80%, wheeze in 44%, re-hospitalisation in 25% and long term inhalation therapy in wheezers in 13% of the preterm infants. Using logistic regression, the main risk factor for common symptoms was frequent contact with other children. Severe outcomes were associated with maximal peak inspiratory pressure, arterial cord blood pH, APGAR- and CRIB-Score. CONCLUSIONS: Cough in preterm infants is as common as in term infants, whereas wheeze, inhalation therapy and re-hospitalisations occur more often. Severe outcomes are associated with perinatal risk factors. Preterm infants who did not qualify for BPD according to latest guidelines also showed a significant burden of respiratory disease in the first year of life.

Renal protection with calcium antagonists: the role of lercanidipine.

Abstract Background: Clinical research in the field of hypertension is now increasingly focusing on the potential effects of antihypertensive treatments that may go beyond the reduction of blood pressure (BP). In particular, renal protection appears as a desirable goal, especially considering that hypertension is associated with an increased risk of developing kidney damage, which may eventually lead to end-stage renal disease and a higher mortality. Dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers (CCBs) are widely used in the field of hypertension therapy but the different renal effects of the various CCBs have been poorly explored to date. Scope: This review will discuss available evidence on the renal effects of two calcium channel blockers: amlodipine and lercanidipine, on the basis of clinical data. Methods: MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for inclusion of relevant studies. No limitations in time were considered. Results: Results from preclinical and clinical studies suggest that amlodipine is overall less effective in terms of renal protection when compared with other antihypertensive tested agents. Its beneficial effect in retarding the progression of renal disease is achievable only when combined with a blocker of the renin-angiotensin system. Conversely lercanidipine seems to provide renal protection in a similar way to ACE inhibitors, probably thanks to its mechanism of action which acts directly on the afferent and efferent renal arterioles. Conclusions: Treatment of hypertension with CCBs should take into consideration the special effects of each single agent at different levels; lercanidipine for example may play a useful role in the management not only of hypertension but also in renal protection of hypertensive patients.

Interest of qualitative and quantitative profiling of endocannabinoids for evaluation of their implication in drug addiction process

Introduction: In the middle of the 90's, the discovery of endogenous ligands for cannabinoid receptors opened a new era in this research field. Amides and esters of arachidonic acid have been identified as these endogenous ligands. Arachidonoylethanolamide (anandamide or AEA) and 2-Arachidonoylglycerol (2-AG) seem to be the most important of these lipid messengers. In addition, virodhamine (VA), noladin ether (2-AGE), and N-arachidonoyl dopamine (NADA) have been shown to bind to CB receptors with varying affinities. During recent years, it has become more evident that the EC system is part of fundamental regulatory mechanisms in many physiological processes such as stress and anxiety responses, depression, anorexia and bulimia, schizophrenia disorders, neuroprotection, Parkinson disease, anti-proliferative effects on cancer cells, drug addiction, and atherosclerosis. Aims: This work presents the problematic of EC analysis and the input of Information Dependant Acquisition based on hybrid triple quadrupole linear ion trap (QqQLIT) system for the profiling of these lipid mediators. Methods: The method was developed on a LC Ultimate 3000 series (Dionex, Sunnyvale, CA, USA) coupled to a QTrap 4000 system (Applied biosystems, Concord, ON, Canada). The ECs were separated on an XTerra C18 MS column (50 × 3.0 mm i.d., 3.5 μm) with a 5 min gradient elution. For confirmatory analysis, an information-dependant acquisition experiment was performed with selected reaction monitoring (SRM) as survey scan and enhanced produced ion (EPI) as dependant scan. Results: The assay was found to be linear in the concentration range of 0.1-5 ng/mL for AEA, 0.3-5 ng/mL for VA, 2-AGE, and NADA and 1-20 ng/mL for 2-AG using 0.5 mL of plasma. Repeatability and intermediate precision were found less than 15% over the tested concentration ranges. Under non-pathophysiological conditions, only AEA and 2-AG were actually detected in plasma with concentration ranges going from 104 to 537 pg/mL and from 2160 to 3990 pg/mL respectively. We have particularly focused our scopes on the evaluation of EC level changes in biological matrices through drug addiction and atherosclerosis processes. We will present preliminary data obtained during pilot study after administration of cannabis on human patients. Conclusion: ECs have been shown to play a key role in regulation of many pathophysiological processes. Medical research in these different fields continues to growth in order to understand and to highlight the predominant role of EC in the CNS and peripheral tissues signalisation. The profiling of these lipids needs to develop rapid, highly sensitive and selective analytical methods.

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. METHODS: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. FINDINGS: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. INTERPRETATION: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.