Learning from failure - rationale and design for a study about discontinuation of randomized trials (DISCO study).

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) may be discontinued because of apparent harm, benefit, or futility. Other RCTs are discontinued early because of insufficient recruitment. Trial discontinuation has ethical implications, because participants consent on the premise of contributing to new medical knowledge, Research Ethics Committees (RECs) spend considerable effort reviewing study protocols, and limited resources for conducting research are wasted. Currently, little is known regarding the frequency and characteristics of discontinued RCTs. METHODS/DESIGN: Our aims are, first, to determine the prevalence of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons; second, to determine whether the risk of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons differs between investigator- and industry-initiated RCTs; third, to identify risk factors for RCT discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment; fourth, to determine at what stage RCTs are discontinued; and fifth, to examine the publication history of discontinued RCTs.We are currently assembling a multicenter cohort of RCTs based on protocols approved between 2000 and 2002/3 by 6 RECs in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. We are extracting data on RCT characteristics and planned recruitment for all included protocols. Completion and publication status is determined using information from correspondence between investigators and RECs, publications identified through literature searches, or by contacting the investigators. We will use multivariable regression models to identify risk factors for trial discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment. We aim to include over 1000 RCTs of which an anticipated 150 will have been discontinued due to insufficient recruitment. DISCUSSION: Our study will provide insights into the prevalence and characteristics of RCTs that were discontinued. Effective recruitment strategies and the anticipation of problems are key issues in the planning and evaluation of trials by investigators, Clinical Trial Units, RECs and funding agencies. Identification and modification of barriers to successful study completion at an early stage could help to reduce the risk of trial discontinuation, save limited resources, and enable RCTs to better meet their ethical requirements.

Computer-Aided Business Model Design

There is a lack of dedicated tools for business model design at a strategic level. However, in today's economic world the need to be able to quickly reinvent a company's business model is essential to stay competitive. This research focused on identifying the functionalities that are necessary in a computer-aided design (CAD) tool for the design of business models in a strategic context. Using design science research methodology a series of techniques and prototypes have been designed and evaluated to offer solutions to the problem. The work is a collection of articles which can be grouped into three parts: First establishing the context of how the Business Model Canvas (BMC) is used to design business models and explore the way in which CAD can contribute to the design activity. The second part extends on this by proposing new technics and tools which support elicitation, evaluation (assessment) and evolution of business models design with CAD. This includes features such as multi-color tagging to easily connect elements, rules to validate coherence of business models and features that are adapted to the correct business model proficiency level of its users. A new way to describe and visualize multiple versions of a business model and thereby help in addressing the business model as a dynamic object was also researched. The third part explores extensions to the business model canvas such as an intermediary model which helps IT alignment by connecting business model and enterprise architecture. And a business model pattern for privacy in a mobile environment, using privacy as a key value proposition. The prototyped techniques and proposition for using CAD tools in business model modeling will allow commercial CAD developers to create tools that are better suited to the needs of practitioners.

The business model ontology a proposition in a design science approach

The goal of this dissertation is to find and provide the basis for a managerial tool that allows a firm to easily express its business logic. The methodological basis for this work is design science, where the researcher builds an artifact to solve a specific problem. In this case the aim is to provide an ontology that makes it possible to explicit a firm's business model. In other words, the proposed artifact helps a firm to formally describe its value proposition, its customers, the relationship with them, the necessary intra- and inter-firm infrastructure and its profit model. Such an ontology is relevant because until now there is no model that expresses a company's global business logic from a pure business point of view. Previous models essentially take an organizational or process perspective or cover only parts of a firm's business logic. The four main pillars of the ontology, which are inspired by management science and enterprise- and processmodeling, are product, customer interface, infrastructure and finance. The ontology is validated by case studies, a panel of experts and managers. The dissertation also provides a software prototype to capture a company's business model in an information system. The last part of the thesis consists of a demonstration of the value of the ontology in business strategy and Information Systems (IS) alignment. Structure of this thesis: The dissertation is structured in nine parts: Chapter 1 presents the motivations of this research, the research methodology with which the goals shall be achieved and why this dissertation present a contribution to research. Chapter 2 investigates the origins, the term and the concept of business models. It defines what is meant by business models in this dissertation and how they are situated in the context of the firm. In addition this chapter outlines the possible uses of the business model concept. Chapter 3 gives an overview of the research done in the field of business models and enterprise ontologies. Chapter 4 introduces the major contribution of this dissertation: the business model ontology. In this part of the thesis the elements, attributes and relationships of the ontology are explained and described in detail. Chapter 5 presents a case study of the Montreux Jazz Festival which's business model was captured by applying the structure and concepts of the ontology. In fact, it gives an impression of how a business model description based on the ontology looks like. Chapter 6 shows an instantiation of the ontology into a prototype tool: the Business Model Modelling Language BM2L. This is an XML-based description language that allows to capture and describe the business model of a firm and has a large potential for further applications. Chapter 7 is about the evaluation of the business model ontology. The evaluation builds on literature review, a set of interviews with practitioners and case studies. Chapter 8 gives an outlook on possible future research and applications of the business model ontology. The main areas of interest are alignment of business and information technology IT/information systems IS and business model comparison. Finally, chapter 9 presents some conclusions.

Effort, reward and self-reported mental health: a simulation study on negative affectivity bias.

Background : In the present article, we propose an alternative method for dealing with negative affectivity (NA) biases in research, while investigating the association between a deleterious psychosocial environment at work and poor mental health. First, we investigated how strong NA must be to cause an observed correlation between the independent and dependent variables. Second, we subjectively assessed whether NA can have a large enough impact on a large enough number of subjects to invalidate the observed correlations between dependent and independent variables.Methods : We simulated 10,000 populations of 300 subjects each, using the marginal distribution of workers in an actual population that had answered the Siegrist's questionnaire on effort and reward imbalance (ERI) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ).Results : The results of the present study suggested that simulated NA has a minimal effect on the mean scores for effort and reward. However, the correlations between the effort and reward imbalance (ERI) ratio and the GHQ score might be important, even in simulated populations with a limited NA.Conclusions : When investigating the relationship between the ERI ratio and the GHQ score, we suggest the following rules for the interpretation of the results: correlations with an explained variance of 5% and below should be considered with caution; correlations with an explained variance between 5% and 10% may result from NA, although this effect does not seem likely; and correlations with an explained variance of 10% and above are not likely to be the result of NA biases. [Authors]

Frequency-dependent sexual selection with respect to offspring fitness returns is consistent with predictions from rock-paper-scissors dynamics in the European common lizard

Genetic polymorphism can be maintained over time by negative frequency-dependent (FD) selection induced by Rock-paper-scissors (RPS) social systems. RPS games produce cyclic dynamics, and have been suggested to exist in lizards, insects, isopods, plants, and bacteria. Sexual selection is predicted to accentuate the survival of the future progeny during negative FD survival selection. More specifically, females are predicted to select mates that produce progeny genotypes that exhibit highest survival during survival selection imposed by adult males. However, no empirical evidence demonstrates the existence of FD sexual selection with respect to fitness payoffs of genetic polymorphisms. Here we tested this prediction using the common lizard Zootoca vivipara, a species with three male color morphs (orange, white, yellow) that exhibit morph frequency cycles. In a first step we tested the congruence of the morph frequency change with the predicted change in three independent populations, differing in male color morph frequency and state of the FD morph cycle. Thereafter we ran standardized sexual selection assays in which we excluded alternative mechanisms that potentially induce negative FD selection, and we quantified inter-sexual behavior. The patterns of sexual selection and the observed behavior were in line with context-dependent female mate choice and male behavior played a minor role. Moreover, the strength of the sexual selection was within the magnitude of selection required to produce the observed 3-4-year and 6-8 year morph frequency cycles at low and high altitudes, respectively. In summary, the study provides the first experimental evidence that underpins the crucial assumption of the RPS games suggested to exist in lizards, insects, isopods, and plants; namely, that sexual selection produces negative-FD selection. This indicates that sexual selection, in our study exert by females, might be a crucial driver of the maintenance of genetic polymorphisms.

Women's decision making and experience of subsequent pregnancy following stillbirth.

INTRODUCTION: This study sought to increase understanding of women's thoughts and feelings about decision making and the experience of subsequent pregnancy following stillbirth (intrauterine death after 24 weeks' gestation). METHODS: Eleven women were interviewed, 8 of whom were pregnant at the time of the interview. Modified grounded theory was used to guide the research methodology and to analyze the data. RESULTS: A model was developed to illustrate women's experiences of decision making in relation to subsequent pregnancy and of subsequent pregnancy itself. DISCUSSION: The results of the current study have significant implications for women who have experienced stillbirth and the health professionals who work with them. Based on the model, women may find it helpful to discuss their beliefs in relation to healing and health professionals to provide support with this in mind. Women and their partners may also benefit from explanations and support about the potentially conflicting emotions they may experience during this time.

Conceptual models for designing information systems supporting the strategic analysis of technology environments

1 6 STRUCTURE OF THIS THESIS -Chapter I presents the motivations of this dissertation by illustrating two gaps in the current body of knowledge that are worth filling, describes the research problem addressed by this thesis and presents the research methodology used to achieve this goal. -Chapter 2 shows a review of the existing literature showing that environment analysis is a vital strategic task, that it shall be supported by adapted information systems, and that there is thus a need for developing a conceptual model of the environment that provides a reference framework for better integrating the various existing methods and a more formal definition of the various aspect to support the development of suitable tools. -Chapter 3 proposes a conceptual model that specifies the various enviromnental aspects that are relevant for strategic decision making, how they relate to each other, and ,defines them in a more formal way that is more suited for information systems development. -Chapter 4 is dedicated to the evaluation of the proposed model on the basis of its application to a concrete environment to evaluate its suitability to describe the current conditions and potential evolution of a real environment and get an idea of its usefulness. -Chapter 5 goes a step further by assembling a toolbox describing a set of methods that can be used to analyze the various environmental aspects put forward by the model and by providing more detailed specifications for a number of them to show how our model can be used to facilitate their implementation as software tools. -Chapter 6 describes a prototype of a strategic decision support tool that allow the analysis of some of the aspects of the environment that are not well supported by existing tools and namely to analyze the relationship between multiple actors and issues. The usefulness of this prototype is evaluated on the basis of its application to a concrete environment. -Chapter 7 finally concludes this thesis by making a summary of its various contributions and by proposing further interesting research directions.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

Estimating uncertainty of alcohol-attributable fractions for infectious and chronic diseases.

Background: Alcohol is a major risk factor for burden of disease and injuries globally. This paper presents a systematic method to compute the 95% confidence intervals of alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) with exposure and risk relations stemming from different sources.Methods: The computation was based on previous work done on modelling drinking prevalence using the gamma distribution and the inherent properties of this distribution. The Monte Carlo approach was applied to derive the variance for each AAF by generating random sets of all the parameters. A large number of random samples were thus created for each AAF to estimate variances. The derivation of the distributions of the different parameters is presented as well as sensitivity analyses which give an estimation of the number of samples required to determine the variance with predetermined precision, and to determine which parameter had the most impact on the variance of the AAFs.Results: The analysis of the five Asian regions showed that 150 000 samples gave a sufficiently accurate estimation of the 95% confidence intervals for each disease. The relative risk functions accounted for most of the variance in the majority of cases.Conclusions: Within reasonable computation time, the method yielded very accurate values for variances of AAFs.

Processus et fonctions psychiques de l'écriture : de la création littéraire au groupe à médiation

Ce travail porte sur l'étude des processus et fonctions psychiques de la création littéraire et de l'écriture dans une perspective psychanalytique, à partir d'une méthodologie de recherche qualitative exploratoire. Un premier volet de la recherche s'attache à étudier les processus et fonctions psychiques dans la création littéraire à partir de six entretiens semi-structurés avec des écrivains romands publiés. Les entretiens sont analysés en profondeur à partir de la méthodologie qualitative Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (Smith, Flowers & Larkin, 2009). Un second volet de la recherche étudie les processus et fonctions psychiques de l'écriture dans un atelier de groupe à médiation écriture prenant place dans un Centre de Jour pour adultes, à partir de l'élaboration de deux cas. L'articulation des analyses de ces expériences d'écriture dans les deux contextes étudiés permet de mettre en évidence des enjeux de continuité/discontinuité dans le passage du premier mouvement créateur de l'écriture - le « miroir-papier » - vers le mouvement de la publication/lecture - le « miroir-lecteur ». Ces enjeux de partage invitent à penser le travail créateur de l'écriture à partir de la notion de « Moi- peau » (Anzieu, 1995) et à préciser cinq fonctions psychiques de l'écriture : transformation ; protection ; échange ; réassurance narcissique ; partage. Un accent particulier est porté sur la fonction de protection, dans la tension qu'elle entretient avec celle de transformation, au travers de la mise en évidence de six formes d'enveloppes d'écriture protectrice. Finalement, les analyses mettent en évidence la manière dont cette tension entre un investissement défensif de l'écriture et un investissement de transformation se déploie par des voies singulières en vue d'une tentative de résolution du conflit subjectif interne entre les exigences du « public intérieur » (De M'Uzan, 1964) et la rencontre avec l'objet réel. Ces pistes d'analyses permettent de préciser les modalités de contribution de l'écriture aux processus de symbolisation et d'enrichir la pratique du champ des médiations thérapeutiques de repères d'appréciation clinique. - Based on an exploratory qualitative research methodology, this work focuses on the psychical processes and functions of literary creation and writing from a psychoanalytic perspective. The first part of the research investigates psychical processes and functions in creative writing through the analysis of six semi-structured interviews with published Swiss writers. The interviews are analyzed according to the exploratory qualitative methodology Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (Smith, Flowers & Larkin, 2009). The second area of research examines the processes of writing in the context of an art-therapy writing group that took place in an adult day center. The observations lead to the elaboration of two case studies. The joint analysis of these writing experiences highlights issues of continuity/discontinuity in passing from the first creative writing movement - the « mirror-paper » - to the final publication/reading of the work - the «mirror-reader». These issues enable us to understand the creative writing processes from the concept of the « skin-ego » (Anzieu, 1995). Five functions of writing are proposed: transformation, protection, exchange, narcissistic reassurance, and sharing. An emphasis on the tension between the protection and the transformation functions is highlighted through the identification of six forms of protective writing psychical envelopes. Finally, the analysis shows how this tension between a defensive and a transformative investment in writing takes place in an attempt to resolve the internal conflict between the « inner audience » (De M'Uzan, 1964) and the encounter with the real object. This study clarifies the way creative writing can contribute to symbolization and can enrich clinical assessment in the field of art-therapy.

Mechanisms of antifungal resistance in the opportunistic fungus Aspergillus fumigatus

ABSTRACT Aspergillus fumigatus is one of the most prevalent airbone fungal pathogen and can cause severe fatal invasive aspergillosis in immunocompromised patients. Several antifungal agents are available to treat these infections but with limited success. These agents include polyenes (amphotericin B), echinocandins (caspofungin) and azoles, which constitute the most important class with itraconazole (ITC) and voriconazole as major active compounds. Azole-derived antifungal agents target the ergosterol biosynthesis pathway via the inhibition of the lanosterol 14α-demethylase (cyp51/ERG1 1), a cytochrome P450 responsible for the conversion of lanosterol to ergosterol, which is the main component of cell membrane in fungi. A. fumigatus is also found in the environment as a contaminant of rotting plant or present in composting of organic waste. Among antifungal agents used in the environment for crop protection, the class of azoles is also widely used with propiconazole or prochloraz as examples. However, other agents such as dicarboximide (iprodione), phenylamide (benalaxyl) or strobilurin (azoxystrobin) are also used. Emergence of clinical azole-resistant isolates has been described in several European countries. However the incidence of antifungal resistance has not been yet reported in details in Switzerland. In this study, the status of antifungal resistance was investigated on A. fumigatus isolates collected from Swiss hospitals and from different environmental sites and. tested for their susceptibility to several currently used antifungal agents. The data showed a low incidence of resistance for all tested agents among clinical and environmental isolates. Only two azole-resistant environmental isolates were detected and none among the clinical tested isolates. In general, A. fumigatus was susceptible to all antifungals tested in our study, except to azoxystrobin which was the less active agent against all isolates. Since mechanisms of antifungal resistance have been poorly investigated until now in A. fumigatus, this work was aimed 1) to identify A. fumigatus genes involved in antifungal resistance and 2) to test their involvement in the development of resistance in sampled isolates. Therefore, this work proposed to isolate A. fumigatus genes conferring resistance to a drug-hypersusceptible Saccharomyces cerevisiae strain due to a lack of multidrug transporter genes. Several genes were recovered including three distinct efflux transporters (atrF, atrH and mdrA) and a bZip transcription factor, yapA. The inactivation of each transporter in A. fumigatus indicated that the transporters were involved in the basal level of azole susceptibility. The inactivation of YapA led to a hypersusceptibility to H2O2, thus confirming the involvement of this gene in the oxidative stress response of A. fumigatus. The involvement of the abovementioned transporters genes and of other transporters genes identified by genome analysis in azole resistance was tested by probing their expression in some ITC-resistant isolates. Even if upregulation of some transporters genes was observed in some investigated isolates, the correlation between azole resistance and expression levels of all these transporters genes could not be clearly established for all tested isolates. Given these results, the present work addressed 1) alteration in the expression of cyp51A encoding for the azole target enzyme, and 2) mutation(s) in the cyp51A sequence as potential mechanisms of azote resistance in A. . However, overexpression of cyp51A in the investigated isolates was not linked with azote resistance. Since it was reported that mutation(s) in cyp51A were participating in azote resistance in A. fumigatus, a functional complementation of cyp51A cDNAs from ITC-resistant A. fumigatus strains in S. cerevisiae ergl 1 Δ mutant strain was attempted. Expression in S. cerevisiae allowed the testing of these cDNAs with regards to their functionality and involvement in resistance to specific azote compounds. We could demonstrate that Cyp51A protein with a G54E or M220K mutations conferred resistance to specific azoles in S. cerevisiae, therefore suggesting that these mutations were important for the development of azote resistance in A. fumigatus. In conclusion, this work showed a correlation between ITC resistance and mechanisms involving overexpression of transporters and cyp51A mutations in A. fumigatus isolates. However, azole resistance of some isolates has not been solved and thus it will be necessary to approach the study of resistance mechanisms in this fungal species using alternative methodologies. RESUME Aspergillus fumigatus est un champignon opportuniste répandu et est la cause d'aspergilloses invasives le plus souvent fatales chez des patients immunodéprimés. Plusieurs antifongiques sont disponibles afin de traiter ces infections, cependant avec un succès limité. Ces agents incluent les polyènes (amphotericin B), les échinocandines (caspofungin) et les azoles, qui représentent la plus importante classe d'antifongiques avec l'itraconazole (ITC) et le voriconazole comme principaux agents actifs. Les dérivés azolés ciblent la voie de biosynthèse de l'ergostérol via l'inhibition de la lanostérol 14α-demethylase (cyp51/ERG11), un cytochrome P450 impliqué dans la conversion du lanostérol en ergostérol, qui est un composant important de la membrane chez les champignons. A. fumigatus est également répandu dans l'environnement. Parmi les antifongiques employés en agriculture afin de protéger les cultures, les azoles sont aussi largement utilisés. Cependant, d'autres agents tels que les dicarboximides (iprodione), les phenylamides (benalaxyl) et les strobilurines (azoxystrobin) peuvent être également utilisés. L'émergence de souches cliniques résistantes aux azoles a été décrite dans différents pays européens. Cependant, l'incidence d'une telle résistance aux azoles n'a pas encore été reportée en détails en Suisse. Dans ce travail, l'émergence de la résistance aux antifongiques a été étudiée par analyse de souches d'A. fumigatus provenant de milieux hospitaliers en Suisse et de différents sites et leur susceptibilité testée envers plusieurs antifongiques couramment utilisés. Les données obtenues ont montré une faible incidence de la résistance parmi les souches cliniques et environnementales pour les agents testés. Seulement deux souches environnementales résistantes aux azoles ont été détectées et aucune parmi les souches cliniques. Les mécanismes de résistance aux antifongiques ayant été très peu étudiés jusqu'à présent chez A. fumigatus , ce travail a eu aussi pour but 1) d'identifier les gènes d' A. fumigatus impliqués dans la résistance aux antifongiques et 2) de tester leur implication dans la résistance de certaines souches. Ainsi, il a été proposé d'isoler les gènes d' A. fumigatus pouvant conférer une résistance aux antifongiques à une souche de Saccharomyces cerevisiae hypersensible aux antifongiques. Trois transporteurs à efflux (atrF, atrH et mdrA) et un facteur de transcription appartenant à la famille des bZip (YapA) ont ainsi été isolés. L'inactivation, dans une souche d'A. fumigatus, de chacun des ces transporteurs a permis de mettre en évidence leur implication dans la susceptibilité d'A. fumigatus aux antifongiques. L'inactivation de YapA a engendré une hypersusceptibilité à l' H2O2, confirmant ainsi le rôle de ce gène dans la réponse au stress oxydatif chez A . fumigatus. La participation dans la résistance aux antifongiques des gènes codant pour des transporteurs ainsi que d'autres gènes identifiés par analyse du génome a été déterminée en testant leur niveau d'expression dans des souches résistantes à l'ITC. Bien qu'une surexpression de transporteurs ait été observée dans certaines souches, une corrélation entre la résistance à l'ITC et les niveaux d'expression de ces transporteurs n'a pu être clairement établie. Ce présent travail s'est donc porté sur l'étude de 2 autres mécanismes potentiellement impliqués dans la résistance aux azoles : 1) la surexpression de cyp51A codant pour l'enzyme cible et 2) des mutations dans cyp51A. Cependant, la surexpression de cyp51A dans les souches étudiées n'a pas été constatée. L'effet des mutations de cyp51A dans la résistance aux azoles a été testée par complémentation fonctionnelle d'une souche S. cerevisiae déletée dans son gène ERG11. L'expression de ces gènes chez S. cerevisiae a permis de démontrer que les protéines Cyp51Ap contenant une mutation G54E ou M220K pouvaient conférer une résistance spécifique à certains azoles, ainsi suggérant que ces mutations pourraient être importantes dans le développement d'une résistance aux azoles chez A. fumigatus. En conclusion, ce travail a permis de mettre en évidence, dans des souches d'A. fumigatus , une corrélation entre leur résistance à l' ITC et les mécanismes impliquant une surexpression de transporteurs et des mutations dans cyp51A. Cependant, ces mécanismes n'ont pu expliquer la résistance aux azoles de certaines souches et c'est pourquoi de nouvelles approches doivent être envisagées afin d'étudier ces mécanismes.

Adjuvant cisplatin-based combined chemotherapy for lymph node (LN)-positive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) after radical cystectomy (RC): a retrospective international study of >1500 patients.

OBJECTIVE: To compare outcomes of patients with lymph node (LN)-positive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) treated with or without cisplatin-based combined adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) after radical cystectomy (RC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analysed 1523 patients with LN-positive UCB, who underwent RC with bilateral pelvic LN dissection. All patients had no evidence of disease after RC. AC was administered within 3 months. Competing-risks models were applied to compare UCB-related mortality. RESULTS: Of the 1523 patients, 874 (57.4%) received AC. The cumulative 1-, 2- and 5-year UCB-related mortality rates for all patients were 16%, 36% and 56%, respectively. Administration of AC was associated with an 18% relative reduction in the risk of UCB-related death (subhazard ratio 0.82, P = 0.005). The absolute reduction in mortality was 3.5% at 5 years. The positive effect of AC was detectable in patients aged ≤70 years, in women, in pT3-4 disease, and in those with a higher LN density and lymphovascular invasion. This study is limited by its retrospective and non-randomised design, selection bias, the absence of central pathological review and lack in standardisation of LN dissection and cisplatin-based protocols. CONCLUSION: AC seems to reduce UCB-related mortality in patients with LN-positive UCB after RC. Younger patients, women and those with high-risk features such as pT3-4 disease, a higher LN density and lymphovascular invasion appear to benefit most. Appropriately powered prospective randomised trials are necessary to confirm these findings.

Exploring transparent approaches to the authentication of signatures on artwork

This thesis is composed of three main parts. The first consists of a state of the art of the different notions that are significant to understand the elements surrounding art authentication in general, and of signatures in particular, and that the author deemed them necessary to fully grasp the microcosm that makes up this particular market. Individuals with a solid knowledge of the art and expertise area, and that are particularly interested in the present study are advised to advance directly to the fourth Chapter. The expertise of the signature, it's reliability, and the factors impacting the expert's conclusions are brought forward. The final aim of the state of the art is to offer a general list of recommendations based on an exhaustive review of the current literature and given in light of all of the exposed issues. These guidelines are specifically formulated for the expertise of signatures on paintings, but can also be applied to wider themes in the area of signature examination. The second part of this thesis covers the experimental stages of the research. It consists of the method developed to authenticate painted signatures on works of art. This method is articulated around several main objectives: defining measurable features on painted signatures and defining their relevance in order to establish the separation capacities between groups of authentic and simulated signatures. For the first time, numerical analyses of painted signatures have been obtained and are used to attribute their authorship to given artists. An in-depth discussion of the developed method constitutes the third and final part of this study. It evaluates the opportunities and constraints when applied by signature and handwriting experts in forensic science. A brief summary covering each chapter allows a rapid overview of the study and summarizes the aims and main themes of each chapter. These outlines presented below summarize the aims and main themes addressed in each chapter. Part I - Theory Chapter 1 exposes legal aspects surrounding the authentication of works of art by art experts. The definition of what is legally authentic, the quality and types of the experts that can express an opinion concerning the authorship of a specific painting, and standard deontological rules are addressed. The practices applied in Switzerland will be specifically dealt with. Chapter 2 presents an overview of the different scientific analyses that can be carried out on paintings (from the canvas to the top coat). Scientific examinations of works of art have become more common, as more and more museums equip themselves with laboratories, thus an understanding of their role in the art authentication process is vital. The added value that a signature expertise can have in comparison to other scientific techniques is also addressed. Chapter 3 provides a historical overview of the signature on paintings throughout the ages, in order to offer the reader an understanding of the origin of the signature on works of art and its evolution through time. An explanation is given on the transitions that the signature went through from the 15th century on and how it progressively took on its widely known modern form. Both this chapter and chapter 2 are presented to show the reader the rich sources of information that can be provided to describe a painting, and how the signature is one of these sources. Chapter 4 focuses on the different hypotheses the FHE must keep in mind when examining a painted signature, since a number of scenarios can be encountered when dealing with signatures on works of art. The different forms of signatures, as well as the variables that may have an influence on the painted signatures, are also presented. Finally, the current state of knowledge of the examination procedure of signatures in forensic science in general, and in particular for painted signatures, is exposed. The state of the art of the assessment of the authorship of signatures on paintings is established and discussed in light of the theoretical facets mentioned previously. Chapter 5 considers key elements that can have an impact on the FHE during his or her2 examinations. This includes a discussion on elements such as the skill, confidence and competence of an expert, as well as the potential bias effects he might encounter. A better understanding of elements surrounding handwriting examinations, to, in turn, better communicate results and conclusions to an audience, is also undertaken. Chapter 6 reviews the judicial acceptance of signature analysis in Courts and closes the state of the art section of this thesis. This chapter brings forward the current issues pertaining to the appreciation of this expertise by the non- forensic community, and will discuss the increasing number of claims of the unscientific nature of signature authentication. The necessity to aim for more scientific, comprehensive and transparent authentication methods will be discussed. The theoretical part of this thesis is concluded by a series of general recommendations for forensic handwriting examiners in forensic science, specifically for the expertise of signatures on paintings. These recommendations stem from the exhaustive review of the literature and the issues exposed from this review and can also be applied to the traditional examination of signatures (on paper). Part II - Experimental part Chapter 7 describes and defines the sampling, extraction and analysis phases of the research. The sampling stage of artists' signatures and their respective simulations are presented, followed by the steps that were undertaken to extract and determine sets of characteristics, specific to each artist, that describe their signatures. The method is based on a study of five artists and a group of individuals acting as forgers for the sake of this study. Finally, the analysis procedure of these characteristics to assess of the strength of evidence, and based on a Bayesian reasoning process, is presented. Chapter 8 outlines the results concerning both the artist and simulation corpuses after their optical observation, followed by the results of the analysis phase of the research. The feature selection process and the likelihood ratio evaluation are the main themes that are addressed. The discrimination power between both corpuses is illustrated through multivariate analysis. Part III - Discussion Chapter 9 discusses the materials, the methods, and the obtained results of the research. The opportunities, but also constraints and limits, of the developed method are exposed. Future works that can be carried out subsequent to the results of the study are also presented. Chapter 10, the last chapter of this thesis, proposes a strategy to incorporate the model developed in the last chapters into the traditional signature expertise procedures. Thus, the strength of this expertise is discussed in conjunction with the traditional conclusions reached by forensic handwriting examiners in forensic science. Finally, this chapter summarizes and advocates a list of formal recommendations for good practices for handwriting examiners. In conclusion, the research highlights the interdisciplinary aspect of signature examination of signatures on paintings. The current state of knowledge of the judicial quality of art experts, along with the scientific and historical analysis of paintings and signatures, are overviewed to give the reader a feel of the different factors that have an impact on this particular subject. The temperamental acceptance of forensic signature analysis in court, also presented in the state of the art, explicitly demonstrates the necessity of a better recognition of signature expertise by courts of law. This general acceptance, however, can only be achieved by producing high quality results through a well-defined examination process. This research offers an original approach to attribute a painted signature to a certain artist: for the first time, a probabilistic model used to measure the discriminative potential between authentic and simulated painted signatures is studied. The opportunities and limits that lie within this method of scientifically establishing the authorship of signatures on works of art are thus presented. In addition, the second key contribution of this work proposes a procedure to combine the developed method into that used traditionally signature experts in forensic science. Such an implementation into the holistic traditional signature examination casework is a large step providing the forensic, judicial and art communities with a solid-based reasoning framework for the examination of signatures on paintings. The framework and preliminary results associated with this research have been published (Montani, 2009a) and presented at international forensic science conferences (Montani, 2009b; Montani, 2012).

The role of adjuvant chemotherapy for lymph node-positive upper tract urothelial carcinoma following radical nephroureterectomy: a retrospective study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) on mortality after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) with positive lymph nodes (LNs) and to identify patient subgroups that are most likely to benefit from AC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analysed data of 263 patients with LN-positive UTUC, who underwent full surgical resection. In all, 107 patients (41%) received three to six cycles of AC, while 156 (59.3%) were treated with RNU alone. UTUC-related mortality was evaluated using competing-risks regression models. RESULTS: In all patients (Tall N+), administration of AC had no significant impact on UTUC-related mortality on univariable (P = 0.49) and multivariable (P = 0.11) analysis. Further stratified analyses showed that only N+ patients with pT3-4 disease benefited from AC. In this subgroup, AC reduced UTUC-related mortality by 34% (P = 0.019). The absolute difference in mortality was 10% after the first year and increased to 23% after 5 years. On multivariable analysis, administration of AC was associated with significantly reduced UTUC-related mortality (subhazard ratio 0.67, P = 0.022). Limitations of this study are the retrospective non-randomised design, selection bias, absence of a central pathological review and different AC protocols. CONCLUSIONS: AC seems to reduce mortality in patients with pT3-4 LN-positive UTUC after RNU. This subgroup of LN-positive patients could serve as target population for an AC prospective randomised trial.

Educational resources offered by the European Board of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine (EBPRM)

Background .- Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine (PRM) is a very demanding medical speciality. To ensure high standard of research and care in PRM all across Europe, it is crucial to attract gifted trainees and offer them high quality education. At undergraduate level, many medical schools in Europe omit to offer teaching on disabled persons and on basic PRM knowledge. Thus PRM is hardly known to medical students. For postgraduate trainees access to evidence-based knowledge as well as teaching of research methodology specific to PRM, rehabilitation methodology, disability management and team building also need to be strengthened to increase the visibility of PRM. Action .- To address these issues the EBPRM proposes presently a specific undergraduate curriculum in PRM including the issues of disability, participation and handicap as a basis for general medical practice and postgraduate rehabilitation training. For PRM trainees many educational documents are now available on the EBPRM website. A growing number of educational sessions for PRM trainees take place during international and national PRM Congresses which can be accessed at low cost. Educational papers published regularly in European rehabilitation journals and European PRM Schools are offered free or at very low cost to trainees.