Assessing the Relationship between the Baseline Value of a Continuous Variable and Subsequent Change over Time

Analyzing the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change of a continuous variable is a frequent matter of inquiry in cohort studies. These analyses are surprisingly complex, particularly if only two waves of data are available. It is unclear for non-biostatisticians where the complexity of this analysis lies and which statistical method is adequate.With the help of simulated longitudinal data of body mass index in children,we review statistical methods for the analysis of the association between the baseline value and subsequent change, assuming linear growth with time. Key issues in such analyses are mathematical coupling, measurement error, variability of change between individuals, and regression to the mean. Ideally, it is better to rely on multiple repeated measurements at different times and a linear random effects model is a standard approach if more than two waves of data are available. If only two waves of data are available, our simulations show that Blomqvist's method - which consists in adjusting for measurement error variance the estimated regression coefficient of observed change on baseline value - provides accurate estimates. The adequacy of the methods to assess the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change depends on the number of data waves, the availability of information on measurement error, and the variability of change between individuals.

Alliance patterns over the course of short-term dynamic psychotherapy: The shape of productive relationships.

The shape of alliance processes over the course of psychotherapy has already been studied in several process-outcome studies on very brief psychotherapy. The present study applies the shape-of-change methodology to short-term dynamic psychotherapies and complements this method with hierarchical linear modeling. A total of 50 psychotherapies of up to 40 sessions were included. Alliance was measured at the end of each session. The results indicate that a linear progression model is most adequate. Three main patterns were found: stable, linear, and quadratic growth. The linear growth pattern, along with the slope parameter, was related to treatment outcome. This study sheds additional light on alliance process research, underscores the importance of linear alliance progression for outcome, and also fosters a better understanding of its limitations.

Marqueurs de la filtration glomérulaire en pédiatrie [Glomerular filtration markers in pediatrics]

The assessment of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is critical for the diagnosis and management of renal diseases in pediatric nephrology. Ideally, it requires the measurement of the renal clearance of a filtration marker. Inulin, an exogenous marker, is the only compound the excretion of which occurs exclusively by glomerular filtration, with no tubular handling. Therefore, inulin clearance provides the most accurate method to measure GFR and is considered as the "gold standard", at all ages including very premature neonates. However, inulin dearance is cumbersome and alternative methods are used in clinical practice. If urine is available, endogenous creatinine clearance is the most reliable method. When urine collection is difficult to obtain, GFR can be estimated by the plasma concentration of endogenous markers mainly eliminated by glomerular filtration, such as creatinine, or the more recently described cystatin C and beta 2-microglobulin. When the endogenous production of these markers is constant, their plasma concentration reflects glomerular filtration; it increases with decreasing renal function. However, in pediatric patients creatinine production depends on muscle mass, which significantly increases with linear growth, as well as age and gender. Mathematical formulas taking these parameters into account have thus been developed. Among these, the so-called "Schwartz formula" is often used and is a reliable estimate of GFR in children. Finally, radionuclide renal scans can be used to evaluate the separate glomerular function of each kidney.

Early change in maladaptive defense style and development of the therapeutic alliance

Résumé Cette étude examine les changements précoces dans le Style Défensif Maladaptatif (SDM), le développement de l'alliance thérapeutique et la relation entre le SDM et l'alliance au cours d'une psychothérapie psychodynamique ultra-brève. Soixante-huit patients ambulatoires du centre de consultation psychiatrique et psychothérapique ont bénéficié d'une intervention psychodynamique en quatre séances. Les mesures des défenses et de l'alliance étaient effectuées à la première et à la dernière séance. Les patients qui ont débuté l'intervention avec une alliance faible et qui l'ont terminée avec une alliance haute (groupe de patients avec une alliance de croissance linéaire) ont diminué leur utilisation de défenses maladaptatives de manière significative au cours de la thérapie, alors que ce n'a pas été le cas pour les patients des groupes à alliances haute-stable et basse-stable. Les résultats ont montré qu'à la fin de l'intervention, le SDM et l'alliance étaient corrélés pour tous les patients. Cette corrélation intéressait plus particulièrement le groupe avec une alliance de croissance linéaire. Ces résultats suggèrent, que le développement de l'alliance thérapeutique reflètent le travail de collaboration entre le patient et son thérapeute alors qu'ils essayent de mieux comprendre les causes de la crise du patient. Cette compréhension peut aider à réduire les défenses initialement activées pour permettre au patient de se défendre de l'anxiété et d'un sentiment de détresse. Abstract This study examined the early change in Maladaptive Defense Style (MDS), the development of the Therapeutic Alliance, and the relationship between MDS and alliance, in a short psychodynamic intervention. Sixty-eight outpatients from a psychiatric clinic completed a four-session psychodynamic intervention. Defense and alliance measures were collected at the intake and the final session. Patients who began the intervention with a poor alliance but ended with a good alliance (linear growth therapeutic alliance group) significantly decreased their use of maladaptive defenses over the course of therapy, while patients in the high and low alliance groups did not. Results showed that at the end of the intervention, MDS and alliance were related across all patients. This relation concerned particularly the linear growth therapeutic alliance profile. These results suggest that the developing therapeutic alliance might reflect the collaborative work between the patient and the therapist as they try to understand the causes of the crisis. This understanding might help reduce maladaptive defenses that were initially activated to ward off anxiety and distress.

Effect of antenatal corticosteroids on fetal growth and gestational age at birth.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids on neonatal size, controlling for gestational age at birth and other confounders, and to determine whether there was a dose-response relationship between number of courses of antenatal corticosteroids and neonatal size. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of the Multiple Courses of Antenatal Corticosteroids for Preterm Birth Study, a double-blind randomized controlled trial of single compared with multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids in women at risk for preterm birth and in which fetuses administered multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids weighed less, were shorter, and had smaller head circumferences at birth. All women (n=1,858) and children (n=2,304) enrolled in the Multiple Courses of Antenatal Corticosteroids for Preterm Birth Study were included in the current analysis. Multiple linear regression analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: Compared with placebo, neonates in the antenatal corticosteroids group were born earlier (estimated difference and confidence interval [CI]: -0.428 weeks, CI -0.10264 to -0.75336; P=.01). Controlling for gestational age at birth and confounding factors, multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids were associated with a decrease in birth weight (-33.50 g, CI -66.27120 to -0.72880; P=.045), length (-0.339 cm, CI -0.6212 to -0.05676]; P=.019), and head circumference (-0.296 cm, -0.45672 to -0.13528; P<.001). For each additional course of antenatal corticosteroids, there was a trend toward an incremental decrease in birth weight, length, and head circumference. CONCLUSION: Fetuses exposed to multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids were smaller at birth. The reduction in size was partially attributed to being born at an earlier gestational age but also was attributed to decreased fetal growth. Finally, a dose-response relationship exists between the number of corticosteroid courses and a decrease in fetal growth. The long-term effect of these findings is unknown. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00187382. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II.

Fishery-induced selection on an Alpine whitefish: quantifying genetic and environmental effects on individual growth rate

Size-selective fishing, environmental changes and reproductive strategies are expected to affect life-history traits such as the individual growth rate. The relative contribution of these factors is not clear, particularly whether size-selective fishing can have a substantial impact on the genetics and hence on the evolution of individual growth rates in wild populations. We analysed a 25-year monitoring survey of an isolated population of the Alpine whitefish Coregonus palaea. We determined the selection differentials on growth rate, the actual change of growth rate over time and indicators of reproductive strategies that may potentially change over time. The selection differential can be reliably estimated in our study population because almost all the fish are harvested within their first years of life, i.e. few fish escape fishing mortality. We found a marked decline in average adult growth rate over the 25 years and a significant selection differential for adult growth, but no evidence for any linear change in reproductive strategies over time. Assuming that the heritability of growth in this whitefish corresponds to what was found in other salmonids, about a third of the observed decline in growth rate would be linked to fishery-induced evolution. Size-selective fishing seems to affect substantially the genetics of individual growth in our study population.

How does the body-scale model affect back-calculated growth: the example of arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus (L.) of Lake Geneva (Switzerland)

When back-calculating fish length from scale measurements, the choice of the body-scale relationship is a fundamental step. Using data from the arctic charrSalvelinus alpinus (L.) of Lake Geneva (Switzerland) we show the need for a curvilinear model, on both statistical and biological grounds. From several 2-parameters models, the log-linear relationship appears to provide the best fit. A 3-parameters, Bertalanffy model did not improve the fit. We show moreover that using the proportional model would lead to important misinterpretations of the data.

Optimal growth strategies when mortality and production rates are size-dependent

Pontryagin's maximum principle from optimal control theory is used to find the optimal allocation of energy between growth and reproduction when lifespan may be finite and the trade-off between growth and reproduction is linear. Analyses of the optimal allocation problem to date have generally yielded bang-bang solutions, i.e. determinate growth: life-histories in which growth is followed by reproduction, with no intermediate phase of simultaneous reproduction and growth. Here we show that an intermediate strategy (indeterminate growth) can be selected for if the rates of production and mortality either both increase or both decrease with increasing body size, this arises as a singular solution to the problem. Our conclusion is that indeterminate growth is optimal in more cases than was previously realized. The relevance of our results to natural situations is discussed.

Early parenteral lipids and growth velocity in extremely-low-birth-weight infants.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Whether early parenteral lipids improve postnatal growth of preterm neonates remains unclear. We aimed to assess the effects of parenteral lipids on growth velocity in extremely-low-birth-weight infants. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 121 extremely-low-birth-weight infants. The associations between parenteral lipids (cumulative intakes during the first week and delays in their introduction) and growth velocities (weight, head circumference and length) up to 28 days of life and to 36 weeks of corrected age were analysed using uni- and multivariate linear regression. RESULTS: Univariate analyses showed a significant positive association between the cumulative intakes of parenteral lipids during the first week and i) weight gain up to day 28; ii) weight gain up to 36 weeks of corrected age; iii) head circumference growth up to day 28. There was a negative correlation between the delay in parenteral lipid introduction and weight gain up to day 28. In multivariate analyses, the association between the cumulative intakes of parenteral lipids and weight gain up to 28 days was independent of gestational age at birth, birth weight, sex, smallness for gestational age, and enteral intakes (regression coefficient: 0.19; 95% CI: 0.01-0.38) and, up to 36 weeks, independent of gestational age, birth weight, sex, smallness for gestational age and parenteral glucose and amino acids (0.16; 95% CI: 0.04-0.27). CONCLUSIONS: Parenteral lipids during the first week were positively associated with weight gain in extremely-low-birth-weight infants and could improve early nutritional support of preterm neonates.

Longitudinal analyses of renal lesions due to acute pyelonephritis in children and their impact on renal growth.

PURPOSE: Acute pyelonephritis is a common condition in children, and can lead to renal scarring. The aim of this study was to analyze the progression of renal scarring with time and its impact on renal growth. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 50 children who had renal scarring on dimercapto-succinic acid scan 6 months after acute pyelonephritis underwent a repeat scan 3 years later. Lesion changes were evaluated by 3 blinded observers, and were classified as no change, partial resolution or complete disappearance. Renal size at time of acute pyelonephritis and after 3 years was obtained by ultrasound, and renal growth was assessed comparing z-score for age between the 2 measures. Robust linear regression was used to identify determinants of renal growth. RESULTS: At 6 months after acute pyelonephritis 88 scars were observed in 100 renal units. No change was observed in 27%, partial resolution in 63% and complete disappearance in 9% of lesions. Overall, 72% of lesions improved. Increased number of scars was associated with high grade vesicoureteral reflux (p = 0.02). Multivariate analysis showed that the number of scars was the most important parameter leading to decreased renal growth (CI -1.05 to -0.35, p <0.001), and with 3 or more scars this finding was highly significant on univariate analysis (-1.59, CI -2.10 to -1.09, p <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Even 6 months after acute pyelonephritis 72% of dimercapto-succinic acid defects improved, demonstrating that some of the lesions may be not definitive. The number of scars was significantly associated with loss of renal growth at 3 years.

Association between growth and blood pressure during the life course in children and adolescents

Background: Little is known on the relative importance of growth at different periods between birth and adolescence on blood pressure (BP). Objective: To assess the association between birth weight, change in body weight (growth) and BP across the entire span of childhood and adolescence. Methods: School-based surveys were conducted annually between 1998 and 2006 among all children in four school grades (kindergarten, 4th, 7th, and 10th year of compulsory school) in the Seychelles, Indian Ocean. Height and weight and BP were measured. Three cohorts of children examined twice were analyzed: 1606 children surveyed at age 5.5 and 9.1, 2557 at age 9.2 and 12.5, and 2065 at age 12.5 and 15.5, respectively. Weights at birth and at one year were extracted from medical files. Weights were expressed as Z-scores and growth was defined as a change in weight Z-scores (corresponding to weight centile crossing). The association between BP (at age 5.5, 9.2, 12.5, and 15.5) and weight at different times was assessed by linear regression. Using results of regression models of BP on all successive weights, life course plots were drawn by plotting regression coefficients against age at which weight was measured. The figure shows a life course plot of systolic BP in boys aged 15.5. Results: Without adjustment for current weight (at the time of BP measurement), birth weight was not associated with current BP, irrespective of age, excepted for girls at age 15.5 for whom a modest positive association was found. When adjusted for current weight, birth weight was negatively and modestly associated with current BP. BP was strongly associated with current weight, irrespective of age. Life course plots showed that BP was strongly associated with growth during the few preceding years but not with growth during earlier years, except for growth during the first year of life which tended to be associated with systolic BP. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that BP during childhood and adolescence is mainly determined by current body weight and recent growth.

Body size and early growth in appropriate- and large-for-gestational-age infants.

AIMS: To study weight, length, body composition, sleeping energy expenditure (SEE), and respiratory quotient (RQ) at birth and at 5 mo of age in both adequate-for-gestational-age (AGA) and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) subjects; to compare the changes in body weight and body composition adjusting for gender, age, SEE, RQ and several maternal factors; to investigate the contribution of initial SEE and RQ to changes in body weight and body composition. METHODS: Sixty-nine neonates were recruited among term infants in the University Hospital of Verona, Italy. Forty-nine subjects participated until follow-up. At birth and follow-up, weight and length were measured and arm-fat area and arm-muscle area were calculated from triceps and subscapular skinfolds. SEE and RQ were measured by indirect calorimetry. RESULTS: At birth, weight, length, arm-muscle and arm-fat areas were significantly higher in LGA subjects than in AGA subjects. Weight status, SEE and RQ at birth did not explain the relative weight change after adjusting for gestational weight, placental weight, age at follow-up and gender. Arm-fat area and weight/length ratio at birth were negatively associated with relative changes in body weight after adjusting for the above variables (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Early growth from birth to 5 mo of life is significantly affected by body size and adiposity at birth. Fatter newborns had a slower growth rate than thinner newborns.

Mutations in NDUFB11, Encoding a Complex I Component of the Mitochondrial Respiratory Chain, Cause Microphthalmia with Linear Skin Defects Syndrome.

Microphthalmia with linear skin defects (MLS) syndrome is an X-linked male-lethal disorder also known as MIDAS (microphthalmia, dermal aplasia, and sclerocornea). Additional clinical features include neurological and cardiac abnormalities. MLS syndrome is genetically heterogeneous given that heterozygous mutations in HCCS or COX7B have been identified in MLS-affected females. Both genes encode proteins involved in the structure and function of complexes III and IV, which form the terminal segment of the mitochondrial respiratory chain (MRC). However, not all individuals with MLS syndrome carry a mutation in either HCCS or COX7B. The majority of MLS-affected females have severe skewing of X chromosome inactivation, suggesting that mutations in HCCS, COX7B, and other as-yet-unidentified X-linked gene(s) cause selective loss of cells in which the mutated X chromosome is active. By applying whole-exome sequencing and filtering for X-chromosomal variants, we identified a de novo nonsense mutation in NDUFB11 (Xp11.23) in one female individual and a heterozygous 1-bp deletion in a second individual, her asymptomatic mother, and an affected aborted fetus of the subject's mother. NDUFB11 encodes one of 30 poorly characterized supernumerary subunits of NADH:ubiquinone oxidoreductase, known as complex I (cI), the first and largest enzyme of the MRC. By shRNA-mediated NDUFB11 knockdown in HeLa cells, we demonstrate that NDUFB11 is essential for cI assembly and activity as well as cell growth and survival. These results demonstrate that X-linked genetic defects leading to the complete inactivation of complex I, III, or IV underlie MLS syndrome. Our data reveal an unexpected role of cI dysfunction in a developmental phenotype, further underscoring the existence of a group of mitochondrial diseases associated with neurocutaneous manifestations.