The link between land-use management and fluvial flood risk : a chaotic conception?

There is much policy interest in the possible linkages that might exist between land use and downstream fluvial flood risk. On the one hand, this position is sustained by observations from plot- and field-scale studies that suggest land management does affect runoff. On the other, upscaling these effects to show that land-management activities impact upon flood risk at larger catchment scales has proved to be elusive. This review considers the reasons for why this upscaling is problematic. We argue that, rather than it reflecting methodological challenges associated with the difficulties of modelling hydrological processes over very large areas and during extreme runoff events, it reflects the fact that any linkage between land management and flood risk cannot be generalized and taken out of its specific spatial (catchment) and temporal (flood event) context. We use Sayer's (1992) notion of a `chaotic conception' to describe the belief that there is a simple and general association between land management and downstream flood risk rather than the impacts of land management being spatially and temporally contingent in relation to the particular geographical location, time period and scale being considered. Our argument has important practical consequences because it implies that land-management activities to reduce downstream flood risk will be different to traditional flood-reduction interventions such as levees. The purpose of demonstration projects then needs careful consideration such that conclusions made for one project are not transferred uncritically to other scales of analysis or geographical locations.

Mid- to Late Holocene shoreline reconstruction and human occupation in Ancient Eretria (South Central Euboea, Greece)

Few studies have aimed to reconstruct landscape change in the area of Eretria (South Central Euboea, Greece) during the last 6000 years. The aim of this paper is to partially fill in this gap by examining the interaction be- tween Mid- to Late Holocene shoreline evolution and human occupation, which is documented in the area from the Late Neolithic to the Late Roman period (with discontinuities). Evidence of shoreline displacements is derived from the study of five boreholes (maximum depth of 5.25 m below the surface) drilled in the lowlands of Eretria. Based on sedimentological analyses and micro/macrofaunal identifications, different facies have been identified in the cores and which reveal typical features of deltaic progradation with marine, lagoonal, fluvio- deltaic and fluvial environments. In addition, a chronostratigraphy has been obtained based on 20 AMS 14C radio- carbon dates performed on samples of plant remains and marine/lagoonal shells found in situ. The main sequences of landscape reconstruction in the plain of Eretria can be summarized as follows: a marine environ- ment predominated from ca. 4000 to 3200 cal. BC and a gradual transition to shallow marine conditions is ob- served ca. 3200-3000 cal. BC due to the general context of deltaic progradation west of the ancient city. Subsequently, from ca. 3000 to 2000 cal. BC, a lagoon occupied the area in the vicinity of the Temple of Apollo and the settlement's development was restricted to several fluvio-deltaic levees, thus severely limiting human activities in the plain. From ca. 2000 to 800 cal. BC, a phase of shallow marine presence prevailed and constrained settlement on higher ground, forcing abandonment of the major part of the plain. Finally, since the eighth century BC, the sea has regressed southward and created the modern landscape.