Extent of non-publication in cohorts of studies approved by research ethics committees or included in trial registries

BACKGROUND: The synthesis of published research in systematic reviews is essential when providing evidence to inform clinical and health policy decision-making. However, the validity of systematic reviews is threatened if journal publications represent a biased selection of all studies that have been conducted (dissemination bias). To investigate the extent of dissemination bias we conducted a systematic review that determined the proportion of studies published as peer-reviewed journal articles and investigated factors associated with full publication in cohorts of studies (i) approved by research ethics committees (RECs) or (ii) included in trial registries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Four bibliographic databases were searched for methodological research projects (MRPs) without limitations for publication year, language or study location. The searches were supplemented by handsearching the references of included MRPs. We estimated the proportion of studies published using prediction intervals (PI) and a random effects meta-analysis. Pooled odds ratios (OR) were used to express associations between study characteristics and journal publication. Seventeen MRPs (23 publications) evaluated cohorts of studies approved by RECs; the proportion of published studies had a PI between 22% and 72% and the weighted pooled proportion when combining estimates would be 46.2% (95% CI 40.2%-52.4%, I2 = 94.4%). Twenty-two MRPs (22 publications) evaluated cohorts of studies included in trial registries; the PI of the proportion published ranged from 13% to 90% and the weighted pooled proportion would be 54.2% (95% CI 42.0%-65.9%, I2 = 98.9%). REC-approved studies with statistically significant results (compared with those without statistically significant results) were more likely to be published (pooled OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.2-3.5). Phase-III trials were also more likely to be published than phase II trials (pooled OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.6-2.5). The probability of publication within two years after study completion ranged from 7% to 30%. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial part of the studies approved by RECs or included in trial registries remains unpublished. Due to the large heterogeneity a prediction of the publication probability for a future study is very uncertain. Non-publication of research is not a random process, e.g., it is associated with the direction of study findings. Our findings suggest that the dissemination of research findings is biased.

Subgroup analyses in randomised controlled trials: cohort study on trial protocols and journal publications

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the planning of subgroup analyses in protocols of randomised controlled trials and the agreement with corresponding full journal publications. DESIGN: Cohort of protocols of randomised controlled trial and subsequent full journal publications. SETTING: Six research ethics committees in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. DATA SOURCES: 894 protocols of randomised controlled trial involving patients approved by participating research ethics committees between 2000 and 2003 and 515 subsequent full journal publications. RESULTS: Of 894 protocols of randomised controlled trials, 252 (28.2%) included one or more planned subgroup analyses. Of those, 17 (6.7%) provided a clear hypothesis for at least one subgroup analysis, 10 (4.0%) anticipated the direction of a subgroup effect, and 87 (34.5%) planned a statistical test for interaction. Industry sponsored trials more often planned subgroup analyses compared with investigator sponsored trials (195/551 (35.4%) v 57/343 (16.6%), P<0.001). Of 515 identified journal publications, 246 (47.8%) reported at least one subgroup analysis. In 81 (32.9%) of the 246 publications reporting subgroup analyses, authors stated that subgroup analyses were prespecified, but this was not supported by 28 (34.6%) corresponding protocols. In 86 publications, authors claimed a subgroup effect, but only 36 (41.9%) corresponding protocols reported a planned subgroup analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Subgroup analyses are insufficiently described in the protocols of randomised controlled trials submitted to research ethics committees, and investigators rarely specify the anticipated direction of subgroup effects. More than one third of statements in publications of randomised controlled trials about subgroup prespecification had no documentation in the corresponding protocols. Definitive judgments regarding credibility of claimed subgroup effects are not possible without access to protocols and analysis plans of randomised controlled trials.

Severe traumatic brain injury in Switzerland - feasibility and first results of a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to study the incidence and outcome of severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) in Switzerland and to test the feasibility of a large cohort study with case identification in the first 24 hours and 6-month follow-up. METHODS: From January to June 2005, we consecutively enrolled and followed up all persons with severe TBI (Abbreviated Injury Score of the head region >3 and Glasgow Coma Scale <9) in the catchment areas of 3 Swiss medical centres with neurosurgical facilities. The primary outcome was the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) after 6 months. Secondary outcomes included survival, Functional Independence Mea - sure (FIM), and health-related quality of life (SF-12) at defined time-points up to 6 months after injury. RESULTS: We recruited 101 participants from a source population of about 2.47 million (ie, about 33% of Swiss population). The incidence of severe TBI was 8.2 per 100,000 person-years. The overall case fatality was 70%: 41 of 101 persons (41%) died at the scene of the accident. 23 of 60 hospitalised participants (38%) died within 48 hours, and 31 (53%) within 6 months. In all hospitalised patients, the median GOSE was 1 (range 1-8) after 6 months, and was 6 (2-8) in 6-month survivors. The median total FIM score was 125 (range 18-126); median-SF-12 component mea - sures were 44 (25-55) for the physical scale and 52 (32-65) for the mental scale. CONCLUSIONS: Severe TBI was associated with high case fatality and considerable morbidity in survivors. We demonstrated the feasibility of a multicentre cohort study in Switzerland with the aim of identifying modifiable determinants of outcome and improving current trauma care.

Rehabilitation needs assessment in persons with spinal cord injury following the 2010 earthquake in Haiti: a pilot study using an ICF-based tool.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this pilot study was to describe problems in functioning and associated rehabilitation needs in persons with spinal cord injury after the 2010 earthquake in Haiti by applying a newly developed tool based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). DESIGN: Pilot study. SUBJECTS: Eighteen persons with spinal cord injury (11 women, 7 men) participated in the needs assessment. Eleven patients had complete lesions (American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale; AIS A), one patient had tetraplegia. METHODS: Data collection included information from the International Spinal Cord Injury Core Data Set and a newly developed needs assessment tool based on ICF Core Sets. This tool assesses the level of functioning, the corresponding rehabilitation need, and required health professional. Data were summarized using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: In body functions and body structures, patients showed typical problems following spinal cord injury. Nearly all patients showed limitations and restrictions in their activities and participation related to mobility, self-care and aspects of social integration. Several environmental factors presented barriers to these limitations and restrictions. However, the availability of products and social support were identified as facilitators. Rehabilitation needs were identified in nearly all aspects of functioning. To address these needs, a multidisciplinary approach would be needed. CONCLUSION: This ICF-based needs assessment provided useful information for rehabilitation planning in the context of natural disaster. Future studies are required to test and, if necessary, adapt the assessment.

Les essais cliniques avortés

Un quart des essais cliniques est abandonné, le plus souvent faute de volontaires. Les explications d'Erik von Elm, chef de clinique du Centre d'épidémiologie clinique du CHUV et l'un des co-auteurs d'une étude réalisée sur ce sujet entre 2000 et 2003 en Suisse, en Allemagne et au Canada, et de Grégoire Wuerzner, coordinateur au Centre de recherches cliniques du CHUV.

Circulating estrogens and progesterone during primiparous pregnancies and risk of maternal breast cancer.

Pregnancy reduces maternal risk of breast cancer in the long term, but the biological determinants of the protection are unknown. Animal experiments suggest that estrogens and progesterone could be involved, but direct human evidence is scant. A case-control study (536 cases and 1,049 controls) was nested within the Finnish Maternity Cohort. Eligible were primiparous women who delivered at term a singleton offspring before age 40. For each case, two individually matched controls by age (±6 months) and date of sampling (±3 months) were selected. Estradiol, estrone and progesterone in first-trimester serum were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry and sex-hormone binding globulin (SHBG) by immunoassay. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated through conditional logistic regression. In the whole study population there was no association of breast cancer with any of the studied hormones. In analyses stratified by age at diagnosis, however, estradiol concentrations were positively associated with risk of breast cancer before age 40 (upper quartile OR, 1.81; CI, 1.08-3.06), but inversely associated with risk in women who were diagnosed ≥age 40 (upper quartile OR, 0.64; CI, 0.40-1.04), p(interaction) 0.004. Risk estimates for estrone mirrored those for estradiol but were less pronounced. Progesterone was not associated with risk of subsequent breast cancer. Our results provide initial evidence that concentrations of estrogens during the early parts of a primiparous pregnancy are associated with maternal risk of breast cancer and suggest that the effect may differ for tumors diagnosed before and after age 40.

Non-pharmacological interventions for chronic pain in people with spinal cord injury.

BACKGROUND: Chronic pain is frequent in persons living with spinal cord injury (SCI). Conventionally, the pain is treated pharmacologically, yet long-term pain medication is often refractory and associated with side effects. Non-pharmacological interventions are frequently advocated, although the benefit and harm profiles of these treatments are not well established, in part because of methodological weaknesses of available studies. OBJECTIVES: To critically appraise and synthesise available research evidence on the effects of non-pharmacological interventions for the treatment of chronic neuropathic and nociceptive pain in people living with SCI. SEARCH METHODS: The search was run on the 1st March 2011. We searched the Cochrane Injuries Group's Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP), PsycINFO (OvidSP), four other databases and clinical trials registers. In addition, we manually searched the proceedings of three major scientific conferences on SCI. We updated this search in November 2014 but these results have not yet been incorporated. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials of any intervention not involving intake of medication or other active substances to treat chronic pain in people with SCI. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias in the included studies. The primary outcome was any measure of pain intensity or pain relief. Secondary outcomes included adverse events, anxiety, depression and quality of life. When possible, meta-analyses were performed to calculate standardised mean differences for each type of intervention. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 16 trials involving a total of 616 participants. Eight different types of interventions were studied. Eight trials investigated the effects of electrical brain stimulation (transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) and cranial electrotherapy stimulation (CES); five trials) or repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS; three trials). Interventions in the remaining studies included exercise programmes (three trials); acupuncture (two trials); self-hypnosis (one trial); transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) (one trial); and a cognitive behavioural programme (one trial). None of the included trials were considered to have low overall risk of bias. Twelve studies had high overall risk of bias, and in four studies risk of bias was unclear. The overall quality of the included studies was weak. Their validity was impaired by methodological weaknesses such as inappropriate choice of control groups. An additional search in November 2014 identified more recent studies that will be included in an update of this review.For tDCS the pooled mean difference between intervention and control groups in pain scores on an 11-point visual analogue scale (VAS) (0-10) was a reduction of -1.90 units (95% confidence interval (CI) -3.48 to -0.33; P value 0.02) in the short term and of -1.87 (95% CI -3.30 to -0.45; P value 0.01) in the mid term. Exercise programmes led to mean reductions in chronic shoulder pain of -1.9 score points for the Short Form (SF)-36 item for pain experience (95% CI -3.4 to -0.4; P value 0.01) and -2.8 pain VAS units (95% CI -3.77 to -1.83; P value < 0.00001); this represented the largest observed treatment effects in the included studies. Trials using rTMS, CES, acupuncture, self-hypnosis, TENS or a cognitive behavioural programme provided no evidence that these interventions reduce chronic pain. Ten trials examined study endpoints other than pain, including anxiety, depression and quality of life, but available data were too scarce for firm conclusions to be drawn. In four trials no side effects were reported with study interventions. Five trials reported transient mild side effects. Overall, a paucity of evidence was found on any serious or long-lasting side effects of the interventions. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Evidence is insufficient to suggest that non-pharmacological treatments are effective in reducing chronic pain in people living with SCI. The benefits and harms of commonly used non-pharmacological pain treatments should be investigated in randomised controlled trials with adequate sample size and study methodology.

Insulin-like growth factor-I and C-reactive protein during pregnancy and maternal risk of non-epithelial ovarian cancer: a nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and C-reactive protein (CRP) may be positively associated with the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) but no previous studies have investigated their associations with non-epithelial ovarian cancers (NEOC). METHODS: A case-control study was nested within the Finnish Maternity Cohort. Case subjects were 58 women diagnosed with sex cord-stromal tumors (SCST) and 30 with germ cell tumors (GCT) after recruitment. Control subjects (144 for SCST and 74 for GCT) were matched for age, parity, and date of blood donation of the index case. RESULTS: Doubling of IGF-I concentration was not related to maternal risk of either SCST (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.58-1.62) or GCT (OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.51-2.51). Similarly, doubling of CRP concentrations was not related to maternal risk of either SCST (OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.85-1.43) or GCT (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.68-1.28). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-diagnostic IGF-I and CRP concentrations during the first trimester of pregnancy were not associated with increased risk of NEOC in the mother. Risk factors for NEOC may differ from those of EOC.

Prevalence, characteristics, and publication of discontinued randomized trials.

IMPORTANCE: The discontinuation of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) raises ethical concerns and often wastes scarce research resources. The epidemiology of discontinued RCTs, however, remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence, characteristics, and publication history of discontinued RCTs and to investigate factors associated with RCT discontinuation due to poor recruitment and with nonpublication. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cohort of RCTs based on archived protocols approved by 6 research ethics committees in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada between 2000 and 2003. We recorded trial characteristics and planned recruitment from included protocols. Last follow-up of RCTs was April 27, 2013. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Completion status, reported reasons for discontinuation, and publication status of RCTs as determined by correspondence with the research ethics committees, literature searches, and investigator surveys. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 11.6 years (range, 8.8-12.6 years), 253 of 1017 included RCTs were discontinued (24.9% [95% CI, 22.3%-27.6%]). Only 96 of 253 discontinuations (37.9% [95% CI, 32.0%-44.3%]) were reported to ethics committees. The most frequent reason for discontinuation was poor recruitment (101/1017; 9.9% [95% CI, 8.2%-12.0%]). In multivariable analysis, industry sponsorship vs investigator sponsorship (8.4% vs 26.5%; odds ratio [OR], 0.25 [95% CI, 0.15-0.43]; P < .001) and a larger planned sample size in increments of 100 (-0.7%; OR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.92-1.00]; P = .04) were associated with lower rates of discontinuation due to poor recruitment. Discontinued trials were more likely to remain unpublished than completed trials (55.1% vs 33.6%; OR, 3.19 [95% CI, 2.29-4.43]; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this sample of trials based on RCT protocols from 6 research ethics committees, discontinuation was common, with poor recruitment being the most frequently reported reason. Greater efforts are needed to ensure the reporting of trial discontinuation to research ethics committees and the publication of results of discontinued trials.

Circulating insulin-like growth factor-I in pregnancy and maternal risk of breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Elevated serum concentrations of insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-1 have been associated with increased risk of breast cancer. Previously, we reported a similar association in samples obtained during pregnancy. The current study was conducted to further characterize the association of IGF-1 during pregnancy with maternal breast cancer risk. METHODS: A case-control study was nested within the Finnish Maternity Cohort. The study was limited to primiparous women less than 40 years of age, who donated blood samples during early (median, 12 weeks) pregnancy and delivered a single child at term. Seven hundred and nineteen women with invasive breast cancer were eligible. Two controls (n = 1,434) were matched to each case on age and date at blood donation. Serum IGF-1 concentration was measured using an Immulite 2000 analyzer. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).RESULTS: No significant associations were observed between serum IGF-1 concentrations and breast cancer risk in both the overall analysis (OR 1.08 (95% CI 0.80-1.47) and in analyses stratified by histological subtype, lag-time to cancer diagnosis, age at pregnancy or age at diagnosis.CONCLUSIONS: There was no association between IGF-1 and maternal breast cancer risk during early pregnancy in this large nested case-control study.Impact:Serum IGF-1 concentrations during early pregnancy may not be related to maternal risk of breast cancer.

Development and validation of a self-report version of the Spinal Cord Independence Measure (SCIM III).

Study design:Cross-sectional validation study.Objectives:To develop and validate a self-report version of the Spinal Cord Independence Measure (SCIM III).Setting:Two SCI rehabilitation facilities in Switzerland.Methods:SCIM III comprises 19 questions on daily tasks with a total score between 0 and 100 and subscales for 'self-care', 'respiration & sphincter management' and 'mobility'. A self-report version (SCIM-SR) was developed by expert discussions and pretests in individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) using a German translation. A convenience sample of 99 inpatients with SCI was recruited. SCIM-SR data were analyzed together with SCIM III data obtained from attending health professionals.Results:High correlations between SCIM III and SCIM-SR were observed. Pearson's r for the total score was 0.87 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82-0.91), for the subscales self-care 0.87 (0.81-0.91); respiration & sphincter management 0.81 (0.73-0.87); and mobility 0.87 (0.82-0.91). Intraclass correlations were: total score 0.90 (95% CI 0.85-0.93); self-care 0.86 (0.79-0.90); respiration & sphincter management 0.80 (0.71-0.86); and mobility 0.83 (0.76-0.89). Bland-Altman plots showed that patients rated their functioning higher than professionals, in particular for mobility. The mean difference between SCIM-SR and SCIM III for the total score was 5.14 (point estimate 95% CI 2.95-7.34), self-care 0.89 (0.19-1.59), respiration & sphincter management 1.05 (0.18-2.28 ) and mobility 3.49 (2.44-4.54). Particularly patients readmitted because of pressure sores rated their independence higher than attending professionals.Conclusion:Our results support the criterion validity of SCIM-SR. The self-report version may facilitate long-term evaluations of independence in persons with SCI in their home situation.