Linking landscape- and population ecology for large population management modelling: the case of Ibex (capra ibex) in Switzerland

La biologie de la conservation est communément associée à la protection de petites populations menacées d?extinction. Pourtant, il peut également être nécessaire de soumettre à gestion des populations surabondantes ou susceptibles d?une trop grande expansion, dans le but de prévenir les effets néfastes de la surpopulation. Du fait des différences tant quantitatives que qualitatives entre protection des petites populations et contrôle des grandes, il est nécessaire de disposer de modèles et de méthodes distinctes. L?objectif de ce travail a été de développer des modèles prédictifs de la dynamique des grandes populations, ainsi que des logiciels permettant de calculer les paramètres de ces modèles et de tester des scénarios de gestion. Le cas du Bouquetin des Alpes (Capra ibex ibex) - en forte expansion en Suisse depuis sa réintroduction au début du XXème siècle - servit d?exemple. Cette tâche fut accomplie en trois étapes : En premier lieu, un modèle de dynamique locale, spécifique au Bouquetin, fut développé : le modèle sous-jacent - structuré en classes d?âge et de sexe - est basé sur une matrice de Leslie à laquelle ont été ajoutées la densité-dépendance, la stochasticité environnementale et la chasse de régulation. Ce modèle fut implémenté dans un logiciel d?aide à la gestion - nommé SIM-Ibex - permettant la maintenance de données de recensements, l?estimation automatisée des paramètres, ainsi que l?ajustement et la simulation de stratégies de régulation. Mais la dynamique d?une population est influencée non seulement par des facteurs démographiques, mais aussi par la dispersion et la colonisation de nouveaux espaces. Il est donc nécessaire de pouvoir modéliser tant la qualité de l?habitat que les obstacles à la dispersion. Une collection de logiciels - nommée Biomapper - fut donc développée. Son module central est basé sur l?Analyse Factorielle de la Niche Ecologique (ENFA) dont le principe est de calculer des facteurs de marginalité et de spécialisation de la niche écologique à partir de prédicteurs environnementaux et de données d?observation de l?espèce. Tous les modules de Biomapper sont liés aux Systèmes d?Information Géographiques (SIG) ; ils couvrent toutes les opérations d?importation des données, préparation des prédicteurs, ENFA et calcul de la carte de qualité d?habitat, validation et traitement des résultats ; un module permet également de cartographier les barrières et les corridors de dispersion. Le domaine d?application de l?ENFA fut exploré par le biais d?une distribution d?espèce virtuelle. La comparaison à une méthode couramment utilisée pour construire des cartes de qualité d?habitat, le Modèle Linéaire Généralisé (GLM), montra qu?elle était particulièrement adaptée pour les espèces cryptiques ou en cours d?expansion. Les informations sur la démographie et le paysage furent finalement fusionnées en un modèle global. Une approche basée sur un automate cellulaire fut choisie, tant pour satisfaire aux contraintes du réalisme de la modélisation du paysage qu?à celles imposées par les grandes populations : la zone d?étude est modélisée par un pavage de cellules hexagonales, chacune caractérisée par des propriétés - une capacité de soutien et six taux d?imperméabilité quantifiant les échanges entre cellules adjacentes - et une variable, la densité de la population. Cette dernière varie en fonction de la reproduction et de la survie locale, ainsi que de la dispersion, sous l?influence de la densité-dépendance et de la stochasticité. Un logiciel - nommé HexaSpace - fut développé pour accomplir deux fonctions : 1° Calibrer l?automate sur la base de modèles de dynamique (par ex. calculés par SIM-Ibex) et d?une carte de qualité d?habitat (par ex. calculée par Biomapper). 2° Faire tourner des simulations. Il permet d?étudier l?expansion d?une espèce envahisseuse dans un paysage complexe composé de zones de qualité diverses et comportant des obstacles à la dispersion. Ce modèle fut appliqué à l?histoire de la réintroduction du Bouquetin dans les Alpes bernoises (Suisse). SIM-Ibex est actuellement utilisé par les gestionnaires de la faune et par les inspecteurs du gouvernement pour préparer et contrôler les plans de tir. Biomapper a été appliqué à plusieurs espèces (tant végétales qu?animales) à travers le Monde. De même, même si HexaSpace fut initialement conçu pour des espèces animales terrestres, il pourrait aisément être étndu à la propagation de plantes ou à la dispersion d?animaux volants. Ces logiciels étant conçus pour, à partir de données brutes, construire un modèle réaliste complexe, et du fait qu?ils sont dotés d?une interface d?utilisation intuitive, ils sont susceptibles de nombreuses applications en biologie de la conservation. En outre, ces approches peuvent également s?appliquer à des questions théoriques dans les domaines de l?écologie des populations et du paysage.<br/><br/>Conservation biology is commonly associated to small and endangered population protection. Nevertheless, large or potentially large populations may also need human management to prevent negative effects of overpopulation. As there are both qualitative and quantitative differences between small population protection and large population controlling, distinct methods and models are needed. The aim of this work was to develop theoretical models to predict large population dynamics, as well as computer tools to assess the parameters of these models and to test management scenarios. The alpine Ibex (Capra ibex ibex) - which experienced a spectacular increase since its reintroduction in Switzerland at the beginning of the 20th century - was used as paradigm species. This task was achieved in three steps: A local population dynamics model was first developed specifically for Ibex: the underlying age- and sex-structured model is based on a Leslie matrix approach with addition of density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and culling. This model was implemented into a management-support software - named SIM-Ibex - allowing census data maintenance, parameter automated assessment and culling strategies tuning and simulating. However population dynamics is driven not only by demographic factors, but also by dispersal and colonisation of new areas. Habitat suitability and obstacles modelling had therefore to be addressed. Thus, a software package - named Biomapper - was developed. Its central module is based on the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) whose principle is to compute niche marginality and specialisation factors from a set of environmental predictors and species presence data. All Biomapper modules are linked to Geographic Information Systems (GIS); they cover all operations of data importation, predictor preparation, ENFA and habitat suitability map computation, results validation and further processing; a module also allows mapping of dispersal barriers and corridors. ENFA application domain was then explored by means of a simulated species distribution. It was compared to a common habitat suitability assessing method, the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), and was proven better suited for spreading or cryptic species. Demography and landscape informations were finally merged into a global model. To cope with landscape realism and technical constraints of large population modelling, a cellular automaton approach was chosen: the study area is modelled by a lattice of hexagonal cells, each one characterised by a few fixed properties - a carrying capacity and six impermeability rates quantifying exchanges between adjacent cells - and one variable, population density. The later varies according to local reproduction/survival and dispersal dynamics, modified by density-dependence and stochasticity. A software - named HexaSpace - was developed, which achieves two functions: 1° Calibrating the automaton on the base of local population dynamics models (e.g., computed by SIM-Ibex) and a habitat suitability map (e.g. computed by Biomapper). 2° Running simulations. It allows studying the spreading of an invading species across a complex landscape made of variously suitable areas and dispersal barriers. This model was applied to the history of Ibex reintroduction in Bernese Alps (Switzerland). SIM-Ibex is now used by governmental wildlife managers to prepare and verify culling plans. Biomapper has been applied to several species (both plants and animals) all around the World. In the same way, whilst HexaSpace was originally designed for terrestrial animal species, it could be easily extended to model plant propagation or flying animals dispersal. As these softwares were designed to proceed from low-level data to build a complex realistic model and as they benefit from an intuitive user-interface, they may have many conservation applications. Moreover, theoretical questions in the fields of population and landscape ecology might also be addressed by these approaches.

Map of ecological networks for landscape planning

This paper presents a method based on a geographical information system (GIS) to model ecological networks in a fragmented landscape. The ecological networks are generated with the help of a landscape model (which integrate human activities) and with a wildlife dispersal model. The main results are maps which permit the analysis and the understanding of the impact of human activities on wildlife dispersal. Three applications in a study area are presented: ecological networks at the landscape scale, conflicting areas at the farmstead scale and ecological distance between biotopes. These applications show the flexibility of the model and its potential to give information on ecological networks at different planning scales.

Very high-resolution digital elevation models: are multi-scale-derived variables ecologically relevant?

1. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are often used in landscape ecology to retrieve elevation or first derivative terrain attributes such as slope or aspect in the context of species distribution modelling. However, DEM-derived variables are scale-dependent and, given the increasing availability of very high-resolution (VHR) DEMs, their ecological relevancemust be assessed for different spatial resolutions. 2. In a study area located in the Swiss Western Alps, we computed VHR DEMs-derived variables related to morphometry, hydrology and solar radiation. Based on an original spatial resolution of 0.5 m, we generated DEM-derived variables at 1, 2 and 4 mspatial resolutions, applying a Gaussian Pyramid. Their associations with local climatic factors, measured by sensors (direct and ambient air temperature, air humidity and soil moisture) as well as ecological indicators derived fromspecies composition, were assessed with multivariate generalized linearmodels (GLM) andmixed models (GLMM). 3. Specific VHR DEM-derived variables showed significant associations with climatic factors. In addition to slope, aspect and curvature, the underused wetness and ruggedness indices modelledmeasured ambient humidity and soilmoisture, respectively. Remarkably, spatial resolution of VHR DEM-derived variables had a significant influence on models' strength, with coefficients of determination decreasing with coarser resolutions or showing a local optimumwith a 2 mresolution, depending on the variable considered. 4. These results support the relevance of using multi-scale DEM variables to provide surrogates for important climatic variables such as humidity, moisture and temperature, offering suitable alternatives to direct measurements for evolutionary ecology studies at a local scale.

The political ecology of weeds : a scalar approach to landscape transformations

How do plants that move and spread across landscapes become branded as weeds and thereby objects of contention and control? We outline a political ecology approach that builds on a Lefebvrian understanding of the production of space, identifying three scalar moments that make plants into 'weeds' in different spatial contexts and landscapes. The three moments are: the operational scale, which relates to empirical phenomena in nature and society; the observational scale, which defines formal concepts of these phenomena and their implicit or explicit 'biopower' across institutional and spatial categories; and the interpretive scale, which is communicated through stories and actions expressing human feelings or concerns regarding the phenomena and processes of socio-spatial change. Together, these three scalar moments interact to produce a political ecology of landscape transformation, where biophysical and socio-cultural processes of daily life encounter formal categories and modes of control as well as emotive and normative expectations in shaping landscapes. Using three exemplar 'weeds' - acacia, lantana and ambrosia - our political ecology approach to landscape transformations shows that weeds do not act alone and that invasives are not inherently bad organisms. Humans and weeds go together; plants take advantage of spaces and opportunities that we create. Human desires for preserving certain social values in landscapes in contradiction to actual transformations is often at the heart of definitions of and conflicts over weeds or invasives.

Modelling the distribution of bats in relation to landscape structure in a temperate mountain environment

1. Landscape modification is often considered the principal cause of population decline in many bat species. Thus, schemes for bat conservation rely heavily on knowledge about species-landscape relationships. So far, however, few studies have quantified the possible influence of landscape structure on large-scale spatial patterns in bat communities. 2. This study presents quantitative models that use landscape structure to predict (i) spatial patterns in overall community composition and (ii) individual species' distributions through canonical correspondence analysis and generalized linear models, respectively. A geographical information system (GIS) was then used to draw up maps of (i) overall community patterns and (ii) distribution of potential species' habitats. These models relied on field data from the Swiss Jura mountains. 3. Fight descriptors of landscape structure accounted for 30% of the variation in bat community composition. For some species, more than 60% of the variance in distribution could be explained by landscape structure. Elevation, forest or woodland cover, lakes and suburbs, were the most frequent predictors. 4. This study shows that community composition in bats is related to landscape structure through species-specific relationships to resources. Due to their nocturnal activities and the difficulties of remote identification, a comprehensive bat census is rarely possible, and we suggest that predictive modelling of the type described here provides an indispensable conservation tool.

History matters: relating paths and rates of landscape change to butterfly species decline

Western European landscapes have drastically changed since the 1950s, with agricultural intensifications and the spread of urban settlements considered the most important drivers of this land-use/land-cover change. Losses of habitat for fauna and flora have been a direct consequence of this development. In the present study, we relate butterfly occurrence to land-use/land-cover changes over five decades between 1951 and 2000. The study area covers the entire Swiss territory. The 10 explanatory variables originate from agricultural statistics and censuses. Both state as well as rate was used as explanatory variables. Species distribution data were obtained from natural history collections. We selected eight butterfly species: four species occur on wetlands and four occur on dry grasslands. We used cluster analysis to track land-use/land-cover changes and to group communes based on similar trajectories of change. Generalized linear models were applied to identify factors that were significantly correlated with the persistence or disappearance of butterfly species. Results showed that decreasing agricultural areas and densities of farms with more than 10 ha of cultivated land are significantly related with wetland species decline, and increasing densities of livestock seem to have favored disappearance of dry grassland species. Moreover, we show that species declines are not only dependent on land-use/land-cover states but also on the rates of change; that is, the higher the transformation rate from small to large farms, the higher the loss of dry grassland species. We suggest that more attention should be paid to the rates of landscape change as feasible drivers of species change and derive some management suggestions.

Inferring landscape effects on dispersal from genetic distances: how far can we go?

Functional connectivity affects demography and gene dynamics in fragmented populations. Besides species-specific dispersal ability, the connectivity between local populations is affected by the landscape elements encountered during dispersal. Documenting these effects is thus a central issue for the conservation and management of fragmented populations. In this study, we compare the power and accuracy of three methods (partial correlations, regressions and Approximate Bayesian Computations) that use genetic distances to infer the effect of landscape upon dispersal. We use stochastic individual-based simulations of fragmented populations surrounded by landscape elements that differ in their permeability to dispersal. The power and accuracy of all three methods are good when there is a strong contrast between the permeability of different landscape elements. The power and accuracy can be further improved by restricting analyses to adjacent pairs of populations. Landscape elements that strongly impede dispersal are the easiest to identify. However, power and accuracy decrease drastically when landscape complexity increases and the contrast between the permeability of landscape elements decreases. We provide guidelines for future studies and underline the needs to evaluate or develop approaches that are more powerful.

Uncovering the genetic basis of adaptive change: on the intersection of landscape genomics and theoretical population genetics

A workshop recently held at the Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL, Switzerland) was dedicated to understanding the genetic basis of adaptive change, taking stock of the different approaches developed in theoretical population genetics and landscape genomics and bringing together knowledge accumulated in both research fields. Indeed, an important challenge in theoretical population genetics is to incorporate effects of demographic history and population structure. But important design problems (e.g. focus on populations as units, focus on hard selective sweeps, no hypothesis-based framework in the design of the statistical tests) reduce their capability of detecting adaptive genetic variation. In parallel, landscape genomics offers a solution to several of these problems and provides a number of advantages (e.g. fast computation, landscape heterogeneity integration). But the approach makes several implicit assumptions that should be carefully considered (e.g. selection has had enough time to create a functional relationship between the allele distribution and the environmental variable, or this functional relationship is assumed to be constant). To address the respective strengths and weaknesses mentioned above, the workshop brought together a panel of experts from both disciplines to present their work and discuss the relevance of combining these approaches, possibly resulting in a joint software solution in the future.

Habitat fragmentation, ecology and sexual selection in forest bird species in Monteverde, Costa Rica

Abstract Forest fragmentation is often associated with local extinction and changes in species abundance patterns. The main topic of this thesis is the effect of forest fragmentation on birds in Monteverde, Costa Rica. This thesis also studies aspects of sexual selection and ecology of Long-tailed Manakins, Chiroxiphia Linearis. Chapter 1 investigates bird species assemblages in two degrees of forest fragmentation. It is shown that the distribution, abundance and diversity of forest bird species are strongly influenced by the amount of forest in the landscape matrix. Presence of cattle within the forest influences the presence of some bird species. The prevalence and intensity of ticks and blood parasites on birds in relation to fragmentation is described in Chapter 2. Overall tick prevalence is 3%. Understory birds are significantly more infested with ticks than species at intermediate heights. Tick prevalence on birds does not differ significantly between two degrees of forest fragmentation and individual tick loads tend to be higher in High- than in Low-fragmentation sites. Infestations by the blood parasites Haemoproteus sp. was low except in white-eared ground sparrow, Melozone leucotis, that is 28% and is significantly higher in High- than in Low-fragmentation sites. In chapter 3 results on the ecology and habitat movements of the Bare-necked Umbrellabird, Cephalopterus glabricollis, are presented. The abundance of umbrellabirds at high elevations during the breeding season coincides with the highest peak of fruit abundance. Birds leave the protected area during the non-breeding season moving to unprotected forest fragments. In chapter 4 ontogenetic changes in feather morphology through sexual maturity in Long-tailed Manakins are described. In adult males, rectrices length is positively correlated to testis volume. Changes in male morphology during ontogeny in the long-tailed manakin appear to be associated with their specific-display behaviours. Significant interpopulation differences in the morphology of Long-tailed Manakins are shown in chapter 5. These differences are more accentuated in morphological traits related to flight displays. A field experiment demonstrates that long rectrices impose flying costs for males and females. A reduction in flying ability was found to be strongest in males from a population presenting the highest degree of sexual dimorphism. Résumé La fragmentation des forêts est souvent associée avec des modifications dans l'abondance des espèces et des extinctions locales. Le thème principale de cette thèse est l'étude de l'effet de la fragmentation des forêts sur les oiseaux de Monteverde, Costa Rica. Elle décrit par ailleurs certains aspects de la sélection sexuelle et l'écologie du manakin à longue queue, Chiroxiphia linearis. Dans le Chapitre 1 je montre que la distribution, l'abondance et la diversité des assemblages d'oiseaux vivant dans la forêt sont fortement influencées pas le degré de fragmentation de celle ci. Par ailleurs, la présence ou l'absence de bétail dans les forêts influence la présence de certaines espèces d'oiseaux. Dans le chapitre 2 j'ai étudié la prévalence et l'intensité d'infestation par des tiques ainsi que la présence de parasites sanguins chez les oiseaux en relation avec la fragmentation des forêts. La prévalence globale de tiques est de 3 %, les oiseaux vivant au niveau du sol étaient plus souvent infectés par des tiques que les espèces se déplaçant à un niveau plus élevé. La prévalence de tiques sur les oiseaux n'était pas significativement différente entre les paysages avec différentes fragmentations. Les parasites sanguins du genre Haemoproteus sp. étaient présents à très basse fréquence à l'exception chez Melozone leucotis ou la prevalence était de 28% et significativement plus élevée chez les oiseaux vivant dans les forêts à forte fragmentation. Dans le Chapitre 3 je présente des résultats sur l'écologie et les mouvements entre habitats chez le "Bare-necked umbrellabird", Cephalopterus glabricollis. Cette espèce endémique du Costa Rica niche à haute altitude durant la période d'abondance des fruits et réalise une migration altitudinale vers des zones basses durant la saison de non reproduction. Dans le chapitre 4 je présente les changements ontogénétiques dans la morphologie du plumage des manakins à longue queue. Chez les mâles, les changements de morphologie semblent être associés avec leurs comportements de parade spécifiques. Dans le chapitre 5 je présente des différences morphologiques significative entre deux populations chez le manakin à longue queue et je montre que la capacité de vols chez les mâles est plus fortement influencée dans la population avec le degré de dimorphisme sexuel le plus prononcé.

Combining niche modelling and landscape genetics to study local adaptation: A novel approach illustrated using alpine plants

Understanding the factors that shape adaptive genetic variation across species niches has become of paramount importance in evolutionary ecology, especially to understand how adaptation to changing climate affects the geographic range of species. The distribution of adaptive alleles in the ecological niche is determined by the emergence of novel mutations, their fitness consequences and gene flow that connects populations across species niches. Striking demographical differences and source sink dynamics of populations between the centre and the margin of the niche can play a major role in the emergence and spread of adaptive alleles. Although some theoretical predictions have long been proposed, the origin and distribution of adaptive alleles within species niches remain untested. In this paper, we propose and discuss a novel empirical approach that combines landscape genetics with species niche modelling, to test whether alleles that confer local adaptation are more likely to occur in either marginal or central populations of species niches. We illustrate this new approach by using a published data set of 21 alpine plant species genotyped with a total of 2483 amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP), distributed over more than 1733 sampling sites across the Alps. Based on the assumption that alleles that were statistically associated with environmental variables were adaptive, we found that adaptive alleles in the margin of a species niche were also present in the niche centre, which suggests that adaptation originates in the niche centre. These findings corroborate models of species range evolution, in which the centre of the niche contributes to the emergence of novel adaptive alleles, which diffuse towards niche margins and facilitate niche and range expansion through subsequent local adaptation. Although these results need to be confirmed via fitness measurements in natural populations and functionally characterised genetic sequences, this study provides a first step towards understanding how adaptive genetic variation emerges and shapes species niches and geographic ranges along environmental gradients.

Molecular estimation of dispersal for ecology and population genetics

The dispersal process, by which individuals or other dispersing agents such as gametes or seeds move from birthplace to a new settlement locality, has important consequences for the dynamics of genes, individuals, and species. Many of the questions addressed by ecology and evolutionary biology require a good understanding of species' dispersal patterns. Much effort has thus been devoted to overcoming the difficulties associated with dispersal measurement. In this context, genetic tools have long been the focus of intensive research, providing a great variety of potential solutions to measuring dispersal. This methodological diversity is reviewed here to help (molecular) ecologists find their way toward dispersal inference and interpretation and to stimulate further developments.

Ecology and neurophysiology of sleep in two wild sloth species

Study Objectives: Interspecific variation in sleep measured in captivity correlates with various physiological and environmental factors, including estimates of predation risk in the wild. However, it remains unclear whether prior comparative studies have been confounded by the captive recording environment. Herein we examine the impact of predation pressure on sleep in sloths living in the wild. Design: Comparison of two closely related sloth species, one exposed to predation and one free from predation. Setting: Panamanian mainland rainforest (predators present) and island mangrove (predators absent). Participants: Mainland (Bradypus variegatus, 5 males and 4 females) and island (Bradypus pygmaeus, 6 males) sloths. Interventions: None. Measurements and Results: EEG and EMG activity were recorded using a miniature data logger. Although both species spent between 9 and 10 hours per day sleeping, the mainland sloths showed a preference for sleeping at night, whereas island sloths showed no preference for sleeping during the day or night. EEG activity during NREM sleep showed lower low-frequency power, and increased spindle and higher frequency power in island sloths when compared to mainland sloths. Conclusions: In sloths sleeping in the wild, predation pressure influenced the timing of sleep, but not the amount of time spent asleep. The preference for sleeping at night in mainland sloths may be a strategy to avoid detection by nocturnal cats. The pronounced differences in the NREM sleep EEG spectrum remain unexplained, but might be related to genetic or environmental factors.

Chemosensory ecology: deceiving Drosophila.

The Solomon's lily arum mimics the odours of yeast to attract drosophilid flies as unrewarded pollinators.

Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes

The role of land cover change as a significant component of global change has become increasingly recognized in recent decades. Large databases measuring land cover change, and the data which can potentially be used to explain the observed changes, are also becoming more commonly available. When developing statistical models to investigate observed changes, it is important to be aware that the chosen sampling strategy and modelling techniques can influence results. We present a comparison of three sampling strategies and two forms of grouped logistic regression models (multinomial and ordinal) in the investigation of patterns of successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. Results indicated that both ordinal and nominal transitional change occurs in the landscape and that the use of different sampling regimes and modelling techniques as investigative tools yield different results. Synthesis and applications. Our multimodel inference identified successfully a set of consistently selected indicators of land cover change, which can be used to predict further change, including annual average temperature, the number of already overgrown neighbouring areas of land and distance to historically destructive avalanche sites. This allows for more reliable decision making and planning with respect to landscape management. Although both model approaches gave similar results, ordinal regression yielded more parsimonious models that identified the important predictors of land cover change more efficiently. Thus, this approach is favourable where land cover change pattern can be interpreted as an ordinal process. Otherwise, multinomial logistic regression is a viable alternative.