Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

Substance use and depression. Comparative course in adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relation between depression and substance use in adolescents and the concomitant courses of both disorders. METHODS: Four individual interviews were administered to 85 adolescent substance users aged 14-19 years (mean 17.1 years, SD 1.4) over a 3.5 year period using the Adolescent Drug Abuse Interview (ADAD) and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-13). RESULTS: No predictive effect was observed on one dimension over the other, but each dimension was predictive of its own course. A decrease in substance-use severity paralleled a decrease in depressive state. Similarly, stable substance-use rates, either at a low or a high level, tended to be associated with low or high levels of depression, respectively. However, an increase in substance use was not accompanied by an increase in depressive states. Moreover, depression varied greatly between adolescents, and according to gender and age. CONCLUSIONS: Depressive states and substance use in adolescents can vary considerably overtime, and are closely but rather synchronically related. Since most of the adolescents do not seek help for substance-related problems, substance use should be systematically assessed in adolescents presenting with a depressive state.

Statin use and peripheral blood progenitor cells mobilization in patients with multiple myeloma.

PURPOSE: Statins have beneficial effects in patients after myocardial infarction and at least part of the benefit results from mobilization of marrow endothelial progenitors to repopulate damaged myocardial tissues. This study examines if statins may have the same effect in mobilizing marrow progenitors to be harvested and subsequently used in high-dose chemotherapy with progenitor cell rescue in multiple myeloma. METHODS: From 2006 to 2012, 86 patients with multiple myeloma were mobilized with the use of G-CSF and were retrospectively analyzed. Patients with other malignancies or mobilized with the use of chemotherapy or with plerixafor were excluded. RESULTS: The median age of the patients was 60 years. 72 patients had received one line of chemotherapy and 14 patients two or more lines of chemotherapy. Twenty patients were taking statins at the time of the harvest while 66 patients were not. In the group of patients taking statins the success rate of first leukapheresis (obtaining the target number of 4 × 10(6) CD34+ cells/kg) was 85 % while in the group not taking statins this rate was 63.6 %. Despite the comparatively small number of patients this difference approached statistical significance (χ (2) = 0.07). CONCLUSION: This retrospective analysis of 86 patients shows for the first time a possible benefit of statins for peripheral blood progenitor cells mobilization in patients with multiple myeloma. Larger studies would be required to clarify the issue. If their effectiveness is confirmed, statins could be a safe and cheaper addition to chemotherapy and plerixafor for peripheral hematopoietic stem cell mobilization.

Substance use and suicidal conduct: a study of adolescents hospitalized for suicide attempt and ideation.

AIM: To study the prevalence of psychoactive substance use disorder (PSUD) among suicidal adolescents, psychoactive substance intoxication at the moment of the attempt, and the association between PSUD at baseline and either occurrence of suicide or repetition of suicide attempt(s). METHODS: 186 adolescents aged 16 to 21 y hospitalized for suicide attempt or overwhelming suicidal ideation were included (T0); 148 of them were traced again for evaluations after 6 mo (T1) and/or 18 mo (T2). DSM-IV diagnoses were assessed each time using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview. RESULTS: At T0, 39.2% of the subjects were found to have a PSUD. Among them, a significantly higher proportion was intoxicated at the time of the attempt than those without PSUD (44.3% vs 25.4%). Among the 148 adolescents who could be traced at either T1 or T2, two died from suicide and 30 repeated suicide attempts once or more times. A marginally significant association was found between death by suicide/repetition of suicide attempt and alcohol abuse/dependence at baseline (OR=3.3, 95% CI 0.7-15.0; OR=2.6, 95% CI 0.7-9.3). More than one suicide attempt before admission to hospital at T0 (OR=3.2, 95% CI 1.1-10.0) and age over 19 y at T0 (OR=3.2, 95% CI 1.1-9.2) were independently associated with the likelihood of death by suicide or repetition of suicide attempt. CONCLUSION: Among adolescents hospitalized for suicide attempt or overwhelming suicidal ideation, the risk of death or repetition of attempt is high and is associated with previous suicide attempts--especially among older adolescents--and also marginally associated with PSUD; these adolescents should be carefully evaluated for such risks and followed up once discharged from the hospital.

Substance use and suicidal conducts : a study of adolescents hospitalized for suicide attempt and ideation

RESUME Objectifs: Etudier la prévalence des troubles liés à l'utilisation de substances psychoatives parmi des adolescents suicidaires; évaluer l'influence de la prise de substances psychoactives sur le geste suicidaire; analyser l'association entre les troubles liés à l'utilisation de substances psychoactives et le risque de récidive de la conduite suicidaire. Méthode: 186 adolescents, âgés de 16 à 21 ans, hospitalisés pour tentative de suicide ou idées suicidaires envahissantes, ont été inclus. Parmi eux, 148 ont été revus pour évaluation à 6 et/ou 18 mois. Des diagnostics psychiatriques, basés sur les critères du DSM-IV, ont été posés à l'aide d'un questionnaire, le MINI (Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview). Résultats: A l'inclusion, 39.2% des sujets avaient un trouble lié à l'utilisation de substances psychoactives. Parmi eux, une proportion significativement plus élevée était sous l'influence d'alcool ou drogue au moment de la tentative de suicide (44.3% versus 25.4%). Des 148 adolescents suivis et revus à 6 ou 18 mois, 2 sont décédés par suicide et il y a eu 30 récidives de tentative de suicide durant l'étude. Une association significative a été trouvée entre les récidives de suicide et un diagnostic d'abus/dépendance à l'alcool à l'inclusion (OR=3.3; CI 0.7-15.0; 0R=2.6, CI 0.7-9.3). Des antécédents de plusieurs tentatives de suicide (OR=3.2; CI 1.1-10.0) et un âge supérieur à 19 ans (OR=3.2; CI 1.1-9.2) à l'inclusion étaient associés à la probabilité de mort par suicide ou de récidive de tentative de suicide. Conclusion: Parmi les adolescents hospitalisés pour tentative de suicide ou idées suicidaires envahissantes, le risque de décès ou de récidive est important. Ce risque est associé, entre autres, à des antécédents suicidaires et au diagnostic de trouble lié à l'utilisation de substances psychoactives. Le risque suicidaire ainsi que la consommation de substances psychoactives devrait être évalué chez les adolescents. De plus, les sujets jugés à risque devraient être suivis systématiquement après une hospitalisation pour conduite suicidaire. ABSTRACT Aim: To study the prevalence of psychoactive substance use disorder (PSUD) among suicidal adolescents, psychoactive substance intoxication at the moment of the attempt and the association between PSUD at baseline and either occurrence of suicide or repetition of suicide attempt(s). Methods: 186 adolescents aged 16 to 21 hospitalised for suicide attempt or overwhelming suicidal ideation were included (TO); 148 of them were traced again for evaluations after 6 months and/or 18 months. DSM-IV diagnoses were assessed each time using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview. Results: At TO, 39.2% of the subjects were found to have a PSUD. Among them, a significantly higher proportion was intoxicated at the time of the attempt than those without PSUD (44-.3% vs. 25.4%). Among the 148 adolescents who could be traced at either Ti or T2, two died from suicide and 30 repeated suicide attempt once or more time. A marginally significant association was found between death by suicide/repetition of suicide attempt and alcohol abuse/dependence at baseline (0R=3.3; CI 0.7-15.0; 0R=2.6, CI 0.7-9.3). More than one suicide attempt before admission to hospital at TO (OR=3.2; CI 1.1-10.0) and age over 19 at TO (0R=3.2; CI 1.1-9.2) were independently associated with the likelihood of death by suicide or repetition of suicide attempt. Conclusion: Among adolescents hospitalised for suicide attempt or overwhelming suicidal ideation, the risk of death or repetition of attempt is high and is associated with previous suicide attempts - especially among older adolescents - and also marginally associated with PSUD; these adolescents should be carefully evaluated for such risks and followed up once discharged from the hospital.

Current trends in illegal drug use and drug related health problems in Switzerland.

As part of the evaluation of the Confederation's measures to reduce drug related problems, a review of available data on drug use and drug related problems in Switzerland has been conducted. Source of data included: population surveys (adults and teenagers), surveys among drug users, health statistics (drug related and AIDS related deaths, HIV case reporting, drug treatments) police statistics (denunciations for consumption). The aims of reducing the number of dependent hard drug users have been achieved where heroin is concerned. In particular, there seems to have been a decrease in the number of people becoming addicted to this substance. For all other illegal substances, especially cannabis, the trend is towards an increased use, as in many European countries. As regards dependent drug users, especially injecting drug users, progress has been made in the area of harm reduction and treatment coverage. This epidemiological assessment can be used in the discussions currently engaged about the revision of the Law governing narcotics and will be a baseline for future follow up of the situation.

Interaction between tobacco and alcohol use and the risk of head and neck cancer: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The magnitude of risk conferred by the interaction between tobacco and alcohol use on the risk of head and neck cancers is not clear because studies have used various methods to quantify the excess head and neck cancer burden. METHODS: We analyzed individual-level pooled data from 17 European and American case-control studies (11,221 cases and 16,168 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. We estimated the multiplicative interaction parameter (psi) and population attributable risks (PAR). RESULTS: A greater than multiplicative joint effect between ever tobacco and alcohol use was observed for head and neck cancer risk (psi = 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-3.04). The PAR for tobacco or alcohol was 72% (95% confidence interval, 61-79%) for head and neck cancer, of which 4% was due to alcohol alone, 33% was due to tobacco alone, and 35% was due to tobacco and alcohol combined. The total PAR differed by subsite (64% for oral cavity cancer, 72% for pharyngeal cancer, 89% for laryngeal cancer), by sex (74% for men, 57% for women), by age (33% for cases <45 years, 73% for cases >60 years), and by region (84% in Europe, 51% in North America, 83% in Latin America). CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that the joint effect between tobacco and alcohol use is greater than multiplicative on head and neck cancer risk. However, a substantial proportion of head and neck cancers cannot be attributed to tobacco or alcohol use, particularly for oral cavity cancer and for head and neck cancer among women and among young-onset cases.

Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy in higher eukaryotes.

Research in autophagy continues to accelerate,(1) and as a result many new scientists are entering the field. Accordingly, it is important to establish a standard set of criteria for monitoring macroautophagy in different organisms. Recent reviews have described the range of assays that have been used for this purpose.(2,3) There are many useful and convenient methods that can be used to monitor macroautophagy in yeast, but relatively few in other model systems, and there is much confusion regarding acceptable methods to measure macroautophagy in higher eukaryotes. A key point that needs to be emphasized is that there is a difference between measurements that monitor the numbers of autophagosomes versus those that measure flux through the autophagy pathway; thus, a block in macroautophagy that results in autophagosome accumulation needs to be differentiated from fully functional autophagy that includes delivery to, and degradation within, lysosomes (in most higher eukaryotes) or the vacuole (in plants and fungi). Here, we present a set of guidelines for the selection and interpretation of the methods that can be used by investigators who are attempting to examine macroautophagy and related processes, as well as by reviewers who need to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of papers that investigate these processes. This set of guidelines is not meant to be a formulaic set of rules, because the appropriate assays depend in part on the question being asked and the system being used. In addition, we emphasize that no individual assay is guaranteed to be the most appropriate one in every situation, and we strongly recommend the use of multiple assays to verify an autophagic response.

Aspirin and statin use and the subsequent development of depression in men and women: Results from a longitudinal population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: Low-grade chronic inflammation is one potential mechanism underlying the well-established association between major depressive disorder (MDD) and increased cardiovascular morbidity. Both aspirin and statins have anti-inflammatory properties, which may contribute to their preventive effect on cardiovascular diseases. Previous studies on the potentially preventive effect of these drugs on depression have provided inconsistent results. The aim of the present paper was to assess the prospective association between regular aspirin or statin use and the incidence of MDD. METHOD: This prospective cohort study included 1631 subjects (43.6% women, mean age 51.7 years), randomly selected from the general population of an urban area. Subjects underwent a thorough physical evaluation as well as semi-structured interviews investigating DSM-IV mental disorders at baseline and follow-up (mean duration 5.2 years). Analyses were adjusted for a wide array of potential confounders. RESULTS: Our main finding was that regular aspirin or statin use at baseline did not reduce the incidence of MDD during follow-up, regardless of sex or age (hazard ratios, aspirin: 1.19; 95%CI, 0.68-2.08; and statins: 1.25; 95%CI, 0.73-2.14; respectively). LIMITATIONS: Our study is not a randomized clinical trial and could not adjust for all potential confounding factors, information on aspirin or statin use was collected only for the 6 months prior to the evaluations, and the sample was restricted to subjects between 35 and 66 years of age. CONCLUSION: Our data do not support a large scale preventive treatment of depression using aspirin or statins in subjects aged from 35 to 66 years from the community.