Y-90-Ibritumomab Tiuxetan (Zevalin (R)) Consolidation of First Remission In Advanced-Stage Follicular Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma: Updated Results After a Median Follow-up of 66.2 Months From the International, Randomized, Phase III First-Line Indolent Trial (FIT) In 414 Patients

The FIT trial was conducted to evaluate the safety and efficacy of 90Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan (0.4 mCi/kg; maximum dose 32 mCi) when used as consolidation of first complete or partial remission in patients with previously untreated, advanced-stage follicular lymphoma (FL). Patients were randomly assigned to either 90Y-ibritumomab treatment (n = 207) or observation (n = 202) within 3 months (mo) of completing initial induction therapy (chemotherapy only: 86%; rituximab in combination with chemotherapy: 14%). Response status prior to randomization did not differ between the groups: 52% complete response (CR)/CR unconfirmed (CRu) to induction therapy and 48% partial response (PR) in the 90Y-ibritumomab arm vs 53% CR/CRu and 44% PR in the control arm. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS) of the intent-to-treat (ITT) population. Results from the first extended follow-up after a median of 3.5 years revealed a significant improvement in PFS from the time of randomization with 90Y-ibritumomab consolidation compared with control (36.5 vs 13.3 mo, respectively; P < 0.0001; Morschhauser et al. JCO. 2008; 26:5156-5164). Here we report a median follow-up of 66.2 mo (5.5 years). Five-year PFS was 47% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 29% in the control group (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.51, 95% CI 0.39-0.65; P < 0.0001). Median PFS in the 90Y-ibritumomab group was 49 mo vs 14 mo in the control group. In patients achieving a CR/CRu after induction, 5-year PFS was 57% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group, and the median had not yet been reached at 92 months, compared with a 43% 5-year PFS in the control group and a median of 31 mo (HR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.42-0.89). For patients in PR after induction, the 5-year PFS was 38% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group with a median PFS of 30 mo vs 14% in the control group with a median PFS of 6 mo (HR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.27-0.53). Patients who had received rituximab as part of induction treatment had a 5-year PFS of 64% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 48% in the control group (HR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.30-1.47). For all patients, time to next treatment (as calculated from the date of randomization) differed significantly between both groups; median not reached at 99 mo in the 90Y-ibritumomab group vs 35 mo in the control group (P < 0.0001). The majority of patients received rituximab-containing regimens when treated after progression (63/82 [77%] in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 102/122 [84%] in the control group). Overall response rate to second-line treatment was 79% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group (57% CR/CRu and 22% PR) vs 78% in the control arm (59% CR/CRu, 19% PR). Five-year overall survival was not significantly different between the groups; 93% and 89% in the 90Y-ibritumomab and control groups, respectively (P = 0.561). To date, 40 patients have died; 18 in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 22 in the control group. Secondary malignancies were diagnosed in 16 patients in the 90Y-ibritumomab arm vs 9 patients in the control arm (P = 0.19). There were 6 (3%) cases of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS)/acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) in the 90Y-ibritumomab arm vs 1 MDS in the control arm (P = 0.063). In conclusion, this extended follow-up of the FIT trial confirms the benefit of 90Y-ibritumomab consolidation with a nearly 3 year advantage in median PFS. A significant 5-year PFS improvement was confirmed for patients with a CR/CRu or a PR after induction. Effective rescue treatment with rituximab-containing regimens may explain the observed no difference in overall survival between both patient groups who were - for the greater part - rituximab-naïve.

Y-90 Ibritumomab Tiuxetan (Zevalin (R)) Consolidation of First Remission In Advanced Stage Follicular Non Hodgkin's Lymphoma Updated Results After a Median Follow up of 662 Months From the International, Randomized, Phase III First Line Indolent Trial (FIT) In 414 Patients

The FIT trial was conducted to evaluate the safety and efficacy of 90Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan (0.4 mCi/kg; maximum dose 32 mCi) when used as consolidation of first complete or partial remission in patients with previously untreated, advanced-stage follicular lymphoma (FL). Patients were randomly assigned to either 90Y-ibritumomab treatment (n = 207) or observation (n = 202) within 3 months (mo) of completing initial induction therapy (chemotherapy only: 86%; rituximab in combination with chemotherapy: 14%). Response status prior to randomization did not differ between the groups: 52% complete response (CR)/CR unconfirmed (CRu) to induction therapy and 48% partial response (PR) in the 90Y-ibritumomab arm vs 53% CR/CRu and 44% PR in the control arm. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS) of the intent-to-treat (ITT) population. Results from the first extended follow-up after a median of 3.5 years revealed a significant improvement in PFS from the time of randomization with 90Y-ibritumomab consolidation compared with control (36.5 vs 13.3 mo, respectively; P < 0.0001; Morschhauser et al. JCO. 2008; 26:5156-5164). Here we report a median follow-up of 66.2 mo (5.5 years). Five-year PFS was 47% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 29% in the control group (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.51, 95% CI 0.39-0.65; P < 0.0001). Median PFS in the 90Y-ibritumomab group was 49 mo vs 14 mo in the control group. In patients achieving a CR/CRu after induction, 5-year PFS was 57% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group, and the median had not yet been reached at 92 months, compared with a 43% 5-year PFS in the control group and a median of 31 mo (HR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.42-0.89). For patients in PR after induction, the 5-year PFS was 38% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group with a median PFS of 30 mo vs 14% in the control group with a median PFS of 6 mo (HR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.27-0.53). Patients who had received rituximab as part of induction treatment had a 5-year PFS of 64% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 48% in the control group (HR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.30-1.47). For all patients, time to next treatment (as calculated from the date of randomization) differed significantly between both groups; median not reached at 99 mo in the 90Y-ibritumomab group vs 35 mo in the control group (P < 0.0001). The majority of patients received rituximab-containing regimens when treated after progression (63/82 [77%] in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 102/122 [84%] in the control group). Overall response rate to second-line treatment was 79% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group (57% CR/CRu and 22% PR) vs 78% in the control arm (59% CR/CRu, 19% PR). Five-year overall survival was not significantly different between the groups; 93% and 89% in the 90Y-ibritumomab and control groups, respectively (P = 0.561). To date, 40 patients have died; 18 in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 22 in the control group. Secondary malignancies were diagnosed in 16 patients in the 90Y-ibritumomab arm vs 9 patients in the control arm (P = 0.19). There were 6 (3%) cases of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS)/acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) in the 90Y-ibritumomab arm vs 1 MDS in the control arm (P = 0.063). In conclusion, this extended follow-up of the FIT trial confirms the benefit of 90Y-ibritumomab consolidation with a nearly 3 year advantage in median PFS. A significant 5-year PFS improvement was confirmed for patients with a CR/CRu or a PR after induction. Effective rescue treatment with rituximab-containing regimens may explain the observed no difference in overall survival between both patient groups who were - for the greater part - rituximab-naïve.

90Yttrium-Ibritumomab Tiuxetan Consolidation of First Remission in Advanced-Stage Follicular Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma: Updated Results After a Median Follow-Up of 7.3 Years From the International, Randomized, Phase III First-Line Indolent Trial.

PURPOSE Updated results are presented after a median follow-up of 7.3 years from the phase III First-Line Indolent Trial of yttrium-90 ((90)Y) -ibritumomab tiuxetan in advanced-stage follicular lymphoma (FL) in first remission. PATIENTS AND METHODS Patients with CD20(+) stage III or IV FL with complete response (CR), unconfirmed CR (CRu), or partial response (PR) after first-line induction treatment were randomly assigned to (90)Y-ibritumomab consolidation therapy (rituximab 250 mg/m(2) days -7 and 0, then (90)Y-ibritumomab 14.8 MBq/kg day 0; maximum 1,184 MBq) or no further treatment (control). Primary end point was progression-free survival (PFS) from date of random assignment. Results For 409 patients available for analysis ((90)Y-ibritumomab, n = 207; control, n = 202), estimated 8-year overall PFS was 41% with (90)Y-ibritumomab versus 22% for control (hazard ratio [HR], 0.47; P < .001). For patients in CR/CRu after induction, 8-year PFS with (90)Y-ibritumomab was 48% versus 32% for control (HR, 0.61; P = .008), and for PR patients, it was 33% versus 10% (HR, 0.38; P < .001). For (90)Y-ibritumomab consolidation, median PFS was 4.1 years (v 1.1 years for control; P < .001). Median time to next treatment (TTNT) was 8.1 years for (90)Y-ibritumomab versus 3.0 years for control (P < .001) with approximately 80% response rates to second-line therapy in either arm, including autologous stem-cell transplantation. No unexpected toxicities emerged during long-term follow-up. Estimated between-group 8-year overall survival rates were similar. Annualized incidence rate of myelodysplastic syndrome/acute myeloblastic leukemia was 0.50% versus 0.07% in (90)Y-ibritumomab and control groups, respectively (P = .042). CONCLUSION (90)Y-ibritumomab consolidation after achieving PR or CR/CRu to induction confers 3-year benefit in median PFS with durable 19% PFS advantage at 8 years and improves TTNT by 5.1 years for patients with advanced FL.

First-line chemotherapy with local treatment can prevent external-beam irradiation and enucleation in low-stage intraocular retinoblastoma.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy of first-line chemotherapy (CT) in preventing external-beam radiotherapy (EBR) and/or enucleation in patients with retinoblastoma (Rbl). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Twenty-four patients with newly diagnosed unilateral or bilateral Rbl received CT associated with local treatment (LT). Two to five courses of etoposide and carboplatin were administered at 3- to 4-week intervals, depending on tumor response, and were completed each time by LT. RESULTS: Tumor response was observed in all eyes. Twenty-one of 24 patients showed a complete response (CR) that persisted at a median follow-up (FU) of 31 months (range, 4 to 41 months). Among the three patients who relapsed, two were lost to FU and one died of progressive disease. CR was achieved by CT and LT alone in 15 (71.4%) of 21 patients with less advanced disease (groups I to III). Six other patients with advanced disease (groups IV and V) experienced treatment failure and needed salvage treatment by EBR and/or enucleation. The difference between the two patient groups with regard to disease stage was statistically significant (P <.0001). EBR could be avoided in 13 (68.4%) of 19 patients, who presented with groups I to III (15 eyes) and group V (one eye) disease, whereas enucleation could be avoided in only two (40%) of five. CONCLUSION: CT combined with intensive LT is effective in patients with groups I to III Rbl, permitting the avoidance of EBR in the majority of these young children and, thus, reducing the risk of long-term sequelae. This is in contrast with the disappointing results for patients with groups IV and V Rbl, in whom EBR and/or enucleation was needed.

Clinical follow-up of women infected with human papillomavirus-16, either alone or with other human papillomavirus types: identification of different risk groups.

OBJECTIVES: Evaluation of the clinical impact of multiple infections of the cervix by human papillomavirus, including human papillomavirus-16, compared with single human papillomavirus-16 infection. STUDY DESIGN: One hundred sixty-nine women were classified in 3 categories depending on their human papillomavirus profile: human papillomavirus-16 only, human papillomavirus-16 and low-risk type(s), and human papillomavirus-16 and other high-risk type(s). Cervical brush samples were analyzed for human papillomavirus DNA by polymerase chain reaction and reverse line blot hybridization. All women were evaluated with colposcopy during 24 months or more. Management was according to the Bethesda recommendations. RESULTS: Women infected with human papillomavirus-16 and other high-risk human papillomavirus type(s) presented more progression or no change in the grade of dysplasia, compared with women of the other groups (relative risk [RR], 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.82; P = .02 at 6 months; RR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.46-3.02; P < .001 at 12 months; RR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.21-2.72; P = .004 at 24 months). CONCLUSION: Coinfection of women with human papillomavirus-16 and other high-risk human papillomavirus type(s) increases the risk of unfavorable evolution.

Phase II study of weekly plitidepsin as second-line therapy for small cell lung cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the antitumor activity and safety profile of plitidepsin administered as a 1h weekly intravenous (i.v.) infusion of 3.2mg/m(2) to patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC) who relapsed or progressed after one line of chemotherapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a multicenter, open-label, single-arm, exploratory, phase II clinical trial. Treatment lasted until disease progression, unacceptable toxicity, patient refusal or treatment delay for >2 weeks. Objective response rate (primary efficacy endpoint) was evaluated according to response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (RECIST). The rate of stable disease (SD) lasting for at least 6 months and time-to-event variables were secondary endpoints of efficacy. Toxicity was assessed using National Cancer Institute Common Toxicity Criteria (NCI-CTC) version 2.0. RESULTS: Twenty pretreated SCLC patients (median age, 60 years) with extensive (n=13) or limited-stage disease (n=7) received a total of 24 treatment cycles (median, one cycle per patient; range, 1-2). Objective tumor responses were not observed and only one of the 17 evaluable patients had SD. With a median follow-up of 11.8 months, the progression-free survival and the median overall survival were 1.3 months and 4.8 months, respectively. The most troubling or common toxicities were fatigue, muscle weakness, lymphopenia, anemia (no patients showed neutropenia), and asymptomatic, non-cumulative increase of transaminases levels and alkaline phosphatase. CONCLUSION: This clinical trial shows that a cycle of 1h weekly i.v. infusion of plitidepsin (3.2mg/m(2)) was generally well tolerated other than fatigue and muscle weakness in patients with pretreated SCLC. One patient died due to multi-organ failure. The absence of antitumor activity found here precludes further studies of this plitidepsin schedule as second-line single-agent treatment of SCLC.

Outcome of long-axis percutaneous sacroplasty as first-line treatment of sacral insufficiency fractures : P219

Purpose: To assess the clinical outcome of patients who were subjected to long-axis sacroplasty as first line treatment for sacral insufficiency fractures. Methods and materials: Nineteen patients with unilateral (n = 3) or bilateral (n = 16) sacral fractures were involved. Under local anaesthesia, each patient was subjected to CT guided sacroplasty using the long-axis approach through a single entry point. An average of 6 ml of PMMA was delivered along the path of each sacral fracture. For each individual patient, the VAS pain score before sacroplasty and at 1, 4, 24, and 48 weeks after the procedure was obtained. Furthermore, the use of analgesics (narcotic/non-narcotic) along with the evolution of post interventional patient mobility before and after sacroplasty was also recorded. Results: The mean pre-procedure VAS score was 8 ± 1.9. This has rapidly declined in the first week after the procedure (mean 4 ± 1.5) followed by gradual decrease along the rest of follow-up period at 4 weeks (mean 3 ± 1.2), 24 weeks (mean 2 ± 1.3), and 48 weeks (mean 1.3 ± 1.4), respectively. Eleven (58%) patients were under narcotic analgesia before sacroplasty, whereas, 8 (42%) patients were using non-narcotics. Corresponding values after the procedure were 2/19 (10%) (narcotic) and 10/19 53% (non-narcotic). Seven (37%) patients did not address post-procedure analgesic use. The evolution of post interventional mobility was favourable in the study group since they revealed a significant improvement in their mobility point scale. Conclusion: Long-axis percutaneous sacroplasty is a suitable minimally invasive treatment option for patients who present with sacral insufficiency fractures. Future studies with larger patient number are warranted to grasp any potential limitations of this therapeutic approach.

In vitro neuroendocrine effects of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) in the AhR-expressing hypothalamic rat GnV-3 cell line.

The aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) is involved in a wide variety of biological and toxicological responses, including neuroendocrine signaling. Due to the complexity of neuroendocrine pathways in e.g. the hypothalamus and pituitary, there are limited in vitro models available despite the strong demand for such systems to study and predict neuroendocrine effects of chemicals. In this study, the applicability of the AhR-expressing rat hypothalamic GnV-3 cell line was investigated as a novel model to screen for neuroendocrine effects of AhR ligands using 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) as reference compound. The qRT-PCR analyses demonstrated the presence of several sets of neurotransmitter receptors in the GnV-3 cells. TCDD (10nM) altered neurotransmitter signaling by up-regulation of glutamate (Grik2), gamma-amino butyric acid (Gabra2) and serotonin (Ht2C) receptor mRNA levels. However, no significant changes in basal and serotonin-evoked intracellular Ca(2+) concentration ([Ca(2+)]i) or serotonin release were observed. On the other hand, TCDD de-regulated period circadian protein homolog 1 (Per1) and gonadotropin releasing hormone (Gnrh) mRNA levels within a 24-h time period. Both Per1 and Gnrh genes displayed a similar mRNA expression pattern in GnV-3 cells. Moreover, the involvement of AhR in TCDD-induced alteration of Neuropeptide Y (Npy) gene expression was found and confirmed by using siRNA targeted against Ahr in GnV-3 cells. Overall, the combined results demonstrate that GnV-3 cells may be a suitable model to predict some mechanisms of action and effects of AhR ligands in the hypothalamus.

Preliminary Experience in Treatment of Papillary and Macular Retinoblastoma: Evaluation of Local Control and Local Complications After Treatment with Linear Accelerator-Based Stereotactic Radiotherapy with Micromultileaf Collimator as Second-Line or Salvage Treatment after chemotherapy.

PURPOSE: To determine the local control and complication rates for children with papillary and/or macular retinoblastoma progressing after chemotherapy and undergoing stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT) with a micromultileaf collimator. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Between 2004 and 2008, 11 children (15 eyes) with macular and/or papillary retinoblastoma were treated with SRT. The mean age was 19 months (range, 2-111). Of the 15 eyes, 7, 6, and 2 were classified as International Classification of Intraocular Retinoblastoma Group B, C, and E, respectively. The delivered dose of SRT was 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions using a dedicated micromultileaf collimator linear accelerator. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 20 months (range, 13-39). Local control was achieved in 13 eyes (87%). The actuarial 1- and 2-year local control rates were both 82%. SRT was well tolerated. Late adverse events were reported in 4 patients. Of the 4 patients, 2 had developed focal microangiopathy 20 months after SRT; 1 had developed a transient recurrence of retinal detachment; and 1 had developed bilateral cataracts. No optic neuropathy was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Linear accelerator-based SRT for papillary and/or macular retinoblastoma in children resulted in excellent tumor control rates with acceptable toxicity. Additional research regarding SRT and its intrinsic organ-at-risk sparing capability is justified in the framework of prospective trials.

Response evaluation in third- and fourth-line treatment of GIST: the role of PET

Background: Response evaluation in gastrointestinal stromal tumors is difficult. Computed tomography and size-based assessments have been found inadequate to draw prognostic conclusions in patients treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI). Density criteria (CHOI) have recently been shown to better define prognostic subsets of patients evaluated with CT. Still, positron emission tomography (PET) might be better at identifying responders with good outcome early, as shown for first and recently second-line treatment in GIST (Prior et al.; J Clin Oncol 2009). We wanted to evaluate the role of PET in third- and fourth-line TKI treatment of GIST. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed patients with GIST who had received third- or fourth-line treatment with TKI and had undergone PET for response evaluation. Patient needed to have a baseline and at least one subsequent PET. Results of the first "early" PET after treatment start have been used throughout this analysis and EORTC PET Study Group criteria applied. Results: Twelve treatment courses were evaluable, seven with Nilotinib in third- and five with Sorafenib in fourth-line treatment, in 8 patients, median age 60 y (range 36−78 y), who had all failed prior Imatinib and Sunitinib treatment due to disease progession. Baseline and follow-up PET were performed within a median of 34 days (range 9−84 days). Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 262 days in patients responding to PET versus 76 days in patients with stable or progressing disease (p = 0.15). Conclusions: This small series suggests that PET retains its value for outcome prediction in third- and fourth-line TKI treatment of GIST. This could be of particular clinical value in these vulnerable patients with large tumour masses. Early PET may help in stopping ineffective, but toxic therapy and help switching to a more effective therapy. PET should be evaluated further in this patient population.

The neuroretina is a novel mineralocorticoid target: aldosterone up-regulates ion and water channels in Müller glial cells.

Glucocorticoids reduce diabetic macular edema, but the mechanisms underlying glucocorticoid effects are imperfectly elucidated. Glucocorticoids may bind to glucocorticoid (GR) and mineralocorticoid (MR) receptors. We hypothesize that MR activation may influence retinal hydration. The effect of the MR agonist aldosterone (24 h) on ion/water channel expression (real-time PCR, Western blot, immunofluorescence) was investigated on cultured retinal Müller glial cells (RMGs, which contribute to fluid homeostasis in the retina), in Lewis rat retinal explants, and in retinas from aldosterone-injected eyes. We evidenced cell-specific expression of MR, GR, and 11-beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type II. Aldosterone significantly enhances expression of sodium and potassium channels ENaC-alpha (6.5-fold) and Kir4.1 (1.9-fold) through MR and GR occupancy, whereas aquaporin 4 (AQP4, 2.9-fold) up-regulation is MR-selective. Aldosterone intravitreous injection induces retinal swelling (24% increase compared to sham-injected eyes) and activation of RMGs. It promotes additional localization of Kir4.1 and AQP4 toward apical microvilli of RMGs. Our results highlight the mineralocorticoid-sensitivity of the neuroretina and show that aldosterone controls hydration of the healthy retina through regulation of ion/water channels expression in RMGs. These results provide a rationale for future investigations of abnormal MR signaling in the pathological retina.

Early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer consensus on diagnosis, treatment and follow-up : 2nd ESMO Consensus Conference on Lung Cancer.

To complement the existing treatment guidelines for all tumour types, ESMO organises consensus conferences to focus on specific issues in each type of tumour. The 2nd ESMO Consensus Conference on Lung Cancer was held on 11-12 May 2013 in Lugano. A total of 35 experts met to address several questions on non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in each of four areas: pathology and molecular biomarkers, first-line/second and further lines in advanced disease, early-stage disease and locally advanced disease. For each question, recommendations were made including reference to the grade of recommendation and level of evidence. This consensus paper focuses on early-stage disease.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the first-line therapies for nicotine dependence.

BACKGROUND: Nicotine dependence is the major obstacle for smokers who want to quit. Guidelines have identified five effective first-line therapies, four nicotine replacement therapies (NRTs)--gum, patch, nasal spray and inhaler--and bupropion. Studying the extent to which these various treatments are cost-effective requires additional research. OBJECTIVES: To determine cost-effectiveness (CE) ratios of pharmacotherapies for nicotine dependence provided by general practitioners (GPs) during routine visits as an adjunct to cessation counselling. METHODS: We used a Markov model to generate two cohorts of one-pack-a-day smokers: (1) the reference cohort received only cessation counselling from a GP during routine office visits; (2) the second cohort received the same counselling plus an offer to use a pharmacological treatment to help them quit smoking. The effectiveness of adjunctive therapy was expressed in terms of the resultant differential in mortality rate between the two cohorts. Data on the effectiveness of therapies came from meta-analyses, and we used odds ratio for quitting as the measure of effectiveness. The costs of pharmacotherapies were based on the cost of the additional time spent by GPs offering, prescribing and following-up treatment, and on the retail prices of the therapies. We used the third-party-payer perspective. Results are expressed as the incremental cost per life-year saved. RESULTS: The cost per life-year saved for only counselling ranged from Euro 385 to Euro 622 for men and from Euro 468 to Euro 796 for women. The CE ratios for the five pharmacological treatments varied from Euro 1768 to Euro 6879 for men, and from Euro 2146 to Euro 8799 for women. Significant variations in CE ratios among the five treatments were primarily due to differences in retail prices. The most cost-effective treatments were bupropion and the patch, and, then, in descending order, the spray, the inhaler and, lastly, gum. Differences in CE between men and women across treatments were due to the shape of their respective mortality curve. The lowest CE ratio in men was for the 45- to 49-year-old group and for women in the 50- to 54-year-old group. Sensitivity analysis showed that changes in treatment efficacy produced effects only for less-well proven treatments (spray, inhaler, and bupropion) and revealed a strong influence of the discount rate and natural quit rate on the CE of pharmacological treatments. CONCLUSION: The CE of first-line treatments for nicotine dependence varied widely with age and sex and was sensitive to the assumption for the natural quit rate. Bupropion and the nicotine patch were the two most cost-effective treatments.

High specificity of line-immunoassay based algorithms for recent HIV-1 infection independent of viral subtype and stage of disease.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Serologic testing algorithms for recent HIV seroconversion (STARHS) provide important information for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody reaction in a confirmatory line immunoassay (INNO-LIATM HIV I/II Score, Innogenetics) provides information on the duration of infection. Here, we sought to further investigate the diagnostic specificity of various Inno-Lia algorithms and to identify factors affecting it. METHODS: Plasma samples of 714 selected patients of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study infected for longer than 12 months and representing all viral clades and stages of chronic HIV-1 infection were tested blindly by Inno-Lia and classified as either incident (up to 12 m) or older infection by 24 different algorithms. Of the total, 524 patients received HAART, 308 had HIV-1 RNA below 50 copies/mL, and 620 were infected by a HIV-1 non-B clade. Using logistic regression analysis we evaluated factors that might affect the specificity of these algorithms. RESULTS: HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL was associated with significantly lower reactivity to all five HIV-1 antigens of the Inno-Lia and impaired specificity of most algorithms. Among 412 patients either untreated or with HIV-1 RNA ≥50 copies/mL despite HAART, the median specificity of the algorithms was 96.5% (range 92.0-100%). The only factor that significantly promoted false-incident results in this group was age, with false-incident results increasing by a few percent per additional year. HIV-1 clade, HIV-1 RNA, CD4 percentage, sex, disease stage, and testing modalities exhibited no significance. Results were similar among 190 untreated patients. CONCLUSIONS: The specificity of most Inno-Lia algorithms was high and not affected by HIV-1 variability, advanced disease and other factors promoting false-recent results in other STARHS. Specificity should be good in any group of untreated HIV-1 patients.

Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.