Change points detection in crime-related time series: an on-line fuzzy approach based on a shape space representation

The extension of traditional data mining methods to time series has been effectively applied to a wide range of domains such as finance, econometrics, biology, security, and medicine. Many existing mining methods deal with the task of change points detection, but very few provide a flexible approach. Querying specific change points with linguistic variables is particularly useful in crime analysis, where intuitive, understandable, and appropriate detection of changes can significantly improve the allocation of resources for timely and concise operations. In this paper, we propose an on-line method for detecting and querying change points in crime-related time series with the use of a meaningful representation and a fuzzy inference system. Change points detection is based on a shape space representation, and linguistic terms describing geometric properties of the change points are used to express queries, offering the advantage of intuitiveness and flexibility. An empirical evaluation is first conducted on a crime data set to confirm the validity of the proposed method and then on a financial data set to test its general applicability. A comparison to a similar change-point detection algorithm and a sensitivity analysis are also conducted. Results show that the method is able to accurately detect change points at very low computational costs. More broadly, the detection of specific change points within time series of virtually any domain is made more intuitive and more understandable, even for experts not related to data mining.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the first-line therapies for nicotine dependence.

BACKGROUND: Nicotine dependence is the major obstacle for smokers who want to quit. Guidelines have identified five effective first-line therapies, four nicotine replacement therapies (NRTs)--gum, patch, nasal spray and inhaler--and bupropion. Studying the extent to which these various treatments are cost-effective requires additional research. OBJECTIVES: To determine cost-effectiveness (CE) ratios of pharmacotherapies for nicotine dependence provided by general practitioners (GPs) during routine visits as an adjunct to cessation counselling. METHODS: We used a Markov model to generate two cohorts of one-pack-a-day smokers: (1) the reference cohort received only cessation counselling from a GP during routine office visits; (2) the second cohort received the same counselling plus an offer to use a pharmacological treatment to help them quit smoking. The effectiveness of adjunctive therapy was expressed in terms of the resultant differential in mortality rate between the two cohorts. Data on the effectiveness of therapies came from meta-analyses, and we used odds ratio for quitting as the measure of effectiveness. The costs of pharmacotherapies were based on the cost of the additional time spent by GPs offering, prescribing and following-up treatment, and on the retail prices of the therapies. We used the third-party-payer perspective. Results are expressed as the incremental cost per life-year saved. RESULTS: The cost per life-year saved for only counselling ranged from Euro 385 to Euro 622 for men and from Euro 468 to Euro 796 for women. The CE ratios for the five pharmacological treatments varied from Euro 1768 to Euro 6879 for men, and from Euro 2146 to Euro 8799 for women. Significant variations in CE ratios among the five treatments were primarily due to differences in retail prices. The most cost-effective treatments were bupropion and the patch, and, then, in descending order, the spray, the inhaler and, lastly, gum. Differences in CE between men and women across treatments were due to the shape of their respective mortality curve. The lowest CE ratio in men was for the 45- to 49-year-old group and for women in the 50- to 54-year-old group. Sensitivity analysis showed that changes in treatment efficacy produced effects only for less-well proven treatments (spray, inhaler, and bupropion) and revealed a strong influence of the discount rate and natural quit rate on the CE of pharmacological treatments. CONCLUSION: The CE of first-line treatments for nicotine dependence varied widely with age and sex and was sensitive to the assumption for the natural quit rate. Bupropion and the nicotine patch were the two most cost-effective treatments.

Changes in volume, surface estimate, three-dimensional shape and total number of neurons of the human primary visual cortex from midgestation until old age.

Macroscopic features such as volume, surface estimate, thickness and caudorostral length of the human primary visual cortex (Brodman's area 17) of 46 human brains between midgestation and 93 years were studied by means of camera lucida drawings from serial frontal sections. Individual values were best fitted by a logistic function from midgestation to adulthood and by a regression line between adulthood and old age. Allometric functions were calculated to study developmental relationships between all the features. The three-dimensional shape of area 17 was also reconstructed from the serial sections in 15 cases and correlated with the sequence of morphological events. The sulcal pattern of area 17 begins to develop around 21 weeks of gestation but remains rather simple until birth, while it becomes more convoluted, particularly in the caudal part, during the postnatal period. Until birth, a large increase in cortical thickness (about 83% of its mean adult value) and caudorostral length (69%) produces a moderate increase in cortical volume (31%) and surface estimate (40%) of area 17. After birth, the cortical volume and surface undergo their maximum growth rate, in spite of a rather small increase in cortical thickness and caudorostral length. This is due to the development of the pattern of gyrification within and around the calcarine fissure. All macroscopic features have reached the mean adult value by the end of the first postnatal year. With aging, the only features to undergo significant regression are the cortical surface estimate and the caudorostral length. The total number of neurons in area 17 shows great interindividual variability at all ages. No decrease in the postnatal period or in aging could be demonstrated.

When the Line is Crossed... : Paths to Control and Sanction Behaviour Necessitating a State Reaction

The article presents a special form of a European comparative synopsis. For this case examples have been chosen ranging from administrative or minor (criminal) offences to increasingly serious offences and offenders. In this way it can be comparatively demonstrated how the criminal justice systems studied handle specific cases and whether they do so in a similar or different way.

Y-90-Ibritumomab Tiuxetan (Zevalin (R)) Consolidation of First Remission In Advanced-Stage Follicular Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma: Updated Results After a Median Follow-up of 66.2 Months From the International, Randomized, Phase III First-Line Indolent Trial (FIT) In 414 Patients

The FIT trial was conducted to evaluate the safety and efficacy of 90Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan (0.4 mCi/kg; maximum dose 32 mCi) when used as consolidation of first complete or partial remission in patients with previously untreated, advanced-stage follicular lymphoma (FL). Patients were randomly assigned to either 90Y-ibritumomab treatment (n = 207) or observation (n = 202) within 3 months (mo) of completing initial induction therapy (chemotherapy only: 86%; rituximab in combination with chemotherapy: 14%). Response status prior to randomization did not differ between the groups: 52% complete response (CR)/CR unconfirmed (CRu) to induction therapy and 48% partial response (PR) in the 90Y-ibritumomab arm vs 53% CR/CRu and 44% PR in the control arm. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS) of the intent-to-treat (ITT) population. Results from the first extended follow-up after a median of 3.5 years revealed a significant improvement in PFS from the time of randomization with 90Y-ibritumomab consolidation compared with control (36.5 vs 13.3 mo, respectively; P < 0.0001; Morschhauser et al. JCO. 2008; 26:5156-5164). Here we report a median follow-up of 66.2 mo (5.5 years). Five-year PFS was 47% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 29% in the control group (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.51, 95% CI 0.39-0.65; P < 0.0001). Median PFS in the 90Y-ibritumomab group was 49 mo vs 14 mo in the control group. In patients achieving a CR/CRu after induction, 5-year PFS was 57% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group, and the median had not yet been reached at 92 months, compared with a 43% 5-year PFS in the control group and a median of 31 mo (HR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.42-0.89). For patients in PR after induction, the 5-year PFS was 38% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group with a median PFS of 30 mo vs 14% in the control group with a median PFS of 6 mo (HR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.27-0.53). Patients who had received rituximab as part of induction treatment had a 5-year PFS of 64% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 48% in the control group (HR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.30-1.47). For all patients, time to next treatment (as calculated from the date of randomization) differed significantly between both groups; median not reached at 99 mo in the 90Y-ibritumomab group vs 35 mo in the control group (P < 0.0001). The majority of patients received rituximab-containing regimens when treated after progression (63/82 [77%] in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 102/122 [84%] in the control group). Overall response rate to second-line treatment was 79% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group (57% CR/CRu and 22% PR) vs 78% in the control arm (59% CR/CRu, 19% PR). Five-year overall survival was not significantly different between the groups; 93% and 89% in the 90Y-ibritumomab and control groups, respectively (P = 0.561). To date, 40 patients have died; 18 in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 22 in the control group. Secondary malignancies were diagnosed in 16 patients in the 90Y-ibritumomab arm vs 9 patients in the control arm (P = 0.19). There were 6 (3%) cases of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS)/acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) in the 90Y-ibritumomab arm vs 1 MDS in the control arm (P = 0.063). In conclusion, this extended follow-up of the FIT trial confirms the benefit of 90Y-ibritumomab consolidation with a nearly 3 year advantage in median PFS. A significant 5-year PFS improvement was confirmed for patients with a CR/CRu or a PR after induction. Effective rescue treatment with rituximab-containing regimens may explain the observed no difference in overall survival between both patient groups who were - for the greater part - rituximab-naïve.

Setting boundaries: brain dynamics of modal and amodal illusory shape completion in humans.

Normal visual perception requires differentiating foreground from background objects. Differences in physical attributes sometimes determine this relationship. Often such differences must instead be inferred, as when two objects or their parts have the same luminance. Modal completion refers to such perceptual "filling-in" of object borders that are accompanied by concurrent brightness enhancement, in turn termed illusory contours (ICs). Amodal completion is filling-in without concurrent brightness enhancement. Presently there are controversies regarding whether both completion processes use a common neural mechanism and whether perceptual filling-in is a bottom-up, feedforward process initiating at the lowest levels of the cortical visual pathway or commences at higher-tier regions. We previously examined modal completion (Murray et al., 2002) and provided evidence that the earliest modal IC sensitivity occurs within higher-tier object recognition areas of the lateral occipital complex (LOC). We further proposed that previous observations of IC sensitivity in lower-tier regions likely reflect feedback modulation from the LOC. The present study tested these proposals, examining the commonality between modal and amodal completion mechanisms with high-density electrical mapping, spatiotemporal topographic analyses, and the local autoregressive average distributed linear inverse source estimation. A common initial mechanism for both types of completion processes (140 msec) that manifested as a modulation in response strength within higher-tier visual areas, including the LOC and parietal structures, is demonstrated, whereas differential mechanisms were evident only at a subsequent time period (240 msec), with amodal completion relying on continued strong responses in these structures.

First-line chemotherapy with local treatment can prevent external-beam irradiation and enucleation in low-stage intraocular retinoblastoma.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy of first-line chemotherapy (CT) in preventing external-beam radiotherapy (EBR) and/or enucleation in patients with retinoblastoma (Rbl). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Twenty-four patients with newly diagnosed unilateral or bilateral Rbl received CT associated with local treatment (LT). Two to five courses of etoposide and carboplatin were administered at 3- to 4-week intervals, depending on tumor response, and were completed each time by LT. RESULTS: Tumor response was observed in all eyes. Twenty-one of 24 patients showed a complete response (CR) that persisted at a median follow-up (FU) of 31 months (range, 4 to 41 months). Among the three patients who relapsed, two were lost to FU and one died of progressive disease. CR was achieved by CT and LT alone in 15 (71.4%) of 21 patients with less advanced disease (groups I to III). Six other patients with advanced disease (groups IV and V) experienced treatment failure and needed salvage treatment by EBR and/or enucleation. The difference between the two patient groups with regard to disease stage was statistically significant (P <.0001). EBR could be avoided in 13 (68.4%) of 19 patients, who presented with groups I to III (15 eyes) and group V (one eye) disease, whereas enucleation could be avoided in only two (40%) of five. CONCLUSION: CT combined with intensive LT is effective in patients with groups I to III Rbl, permitting the avoidance of EBR in the majority of these young children and, thus, reducing the risk of long-term sequelae. This is in contrast with the disappointing results for patients with groups IV and V Rbl, in whom EBR and/or enucleation was needed.

Low-frequency drug-resistant HIV-1 and risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART: a multicohort European case-control study using centralized ultrasensitive 454 pyrosequencing.

OBJECTIVES: It is still debated if pre-existing minority drug-resistant HIV-1 variants (MVs) affect the virological outcomes of first-line NNRTI-containing ART. METHODS: This Europe-wide case-control study included ART-naive subjects infected with drug-susceptible HIV-1 as revealed by population sequencing, who achieved virological suppression on first-line ART including one NNRTI. Cases experienced virological failure and controls were subjects from the same cohort whose viraemia remained suppressed at a matched time since initiation of ART. Blinded, centralized 454 pyrosequencing with parallel bioinformatic analysis in two laboratories was used to identify MVs in the 1%-25% frequency range. ORs of virological failure according to MV detection were estimated by logistic regression. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty samples (76 cases and 184 controls), mostly subtype B (73.5%), were used for the analysis. Identical MVs were detected in the two laboratories. 31.6% of cases and 16.8% of controls harboured pre-existing MVs. Detection of at least one MV versus no MVs was associated with an increased risk of virological failure (OR = 2.75, 95% CI = 1.35-5.60, P = 0.005); similar associations were observed for at least one MV versus no NRTI MVs (OR = 2.27, 95% CI = 0.76-6.77, P = 0.140) and at least one MV versus no NNRTI MVs (OR = 2.41, 95% CI = 1.12-5.18, P = 0.024). A dose-effect relationship between virological failure and mutational load was found. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-existing MVs more than double the risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART.

The age of movements along the insubric line West of Locarno (Northern Italy and southern Switzerland)

Permo-Mesozoic Canavese sediments are pinched in between the pre-Alpine high-grade metamorphic Ivrea Zone and the Alpine metamorphosed Sesia Zone along the Insubric Line W of Locarno. According to the ``illite crystallinity'' these sediments were deformed under anchi- and epizonal conditions. Synkinematically formed white mica in the mylonitized Canavese sediments yields the following K-Ar age ranges: 60-76 Ma at the southwestern end, 28-43 Ma in the central part and 19-26 Ma in the northeastern part of the Insubric Line W of Locarno. The youngest age group dates the main uplift and dextral strike-slip movements of the Insubric Line, comprising mylonites in the NE and cataclasites in the SW. This activity correlates with Late Oligocene to Early Miocene rapid cooling and uplift of the Central Alps.

The twist, writhe and overall shape of supercoiled DNA change during counterion-induced transition from a loosely to a tightly interwound superhelix. Possible implications for DNA structure in vivo.

A cryo-electron microscopy study of supercoiled DNA molecules freely suspended in cryo-vitrified buffer was combined with Monte Carlo simulations and gel electrophoretic analysis to investigate the role of intersegmental electrostatic repulsion in determining the shape of supercoiled DNA molecules. It is demonstrated here that a decrease of DNA-DNA repulsion by increasing concentrations of counterions causes a higher fraction of the linking number deficit to be partitioned into writhe. When counterions reach concentrations likely to be present under in vivo conditions, naturally supercoiled plasmids adopt a tightly interwound conformation. In these tightly supercoiled DNA molecules the opposing segments of interwound superhelix seem to directly contact each other. This form of supercoiling, where two DNA helices interact laterally, may represent an important functional state of DNA. In the particular case of supercoiled minicircles (178 bp) the delta Lk = -2 topoisomers undergo a sharp structural transition from almost planar circles in low salt buffers to strongly writhed "figure-eight" conformations in buffers containing neutralizing concentrations of counterions. Possible implications of this observed structural transition in DNA are discussed.

Validation and long-term evaluation of a modified on-line chiral analytical method for therapeutic drug monitoring of (R,S)-methadone in clinical samples.

Matrix effects, which represent an important issue in liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry or tandem mass spectrometry detection, should be closely assessed during method development. In the case of quantitative analysis, the use of stable isotope-labelled internal standard with physico-chemical properties and ionization behaviour similar to the analyte is recommended. In this paper, an example of the choice of a co-eluting deuterated internal standard to compensate for short-term and long-term matrix effect in the case of chiral (R,S)-methadone plasma quantification is reported. The method was fully validated over a concentration range of 5-800 ng/mL for each methadone enantiomer with satisfactory relative bias (-1.0 to 1.0%), repeatability (0.9-4.9%) and intermediate precision (1.4-12.0%). From the results obtained during validation, a control chart process during 52 series of routine analysis was established using both intermediate precision standard deviation and FDA acceptance criteria. The results of routine quality control samples were generally included in the +/-15% variability around the target value and mainly in the two standard deviation interval illustrating the long-term stability of the method. The intermediate precision variability estimated in method validation was found to be coherent with the routine use of the method. During this period, 257 trough concentration and 54 peak concentration plasma samples of patients undergoing (R,S)-methadone treatment were successfully analysed for routine therapeutic drug monitoring.

Human Primary Auditory Cortex Follows the Shape of Heschl's Gyrus.

The primary auditory cortex (PAC) is central to human auditory abilities, yet its location in the brain remains unclear. We measured the two largest tonotopic subfields of PAC (hA1 and hR) using high-resolution functional MRI at 7 T relative to the underlying anatomy of Heschl's gyrus (HG) in 10 individual human subjects. The data reveals a clear anatomical-functional relationship that, for the first time, indicates the location of PAC across the range of common morphological variants of HG (single gyri, partial duplications, and complete duplications). In 20/20 individual hemispheres, two primary mirror-symmetric tonotopic maps were clearly observed with gradients perpendicular to HG. PAC spanned both divisions of HG in cases of partial and complete duplications (11/20 hemispheres), not only the anterior division as commonly assumed. Specifically, the central union of the two primary maps (the hA1-R border) was consistently centered on the full Heschl's structure: on the gyral crown of single HGs and within the sulcal divide of duplicated HGs. The anatomical-functional variants of PAC appear to be part of a continuum, rather than distinct subtypes. These findings significantly revise HG as a marker for human PAC and suggest that tonotopic maps may have shaped HG during human evolution. Tonotopic mappings were based on only 16 min of fMRI data acquisition, so these methods can be used as an initial mapping step in future experiments designed to probe the function of specific auditory fields.

Disease-causing mutations improving the branch site and polypyrimidine tract: pseudoexon activation of LINE-2 and antisense Alu lacking the poly(T)-tail.

Cryptic exons or pseudoexons are typically activated by point mutations that create GT or AG dinucleotides of new 5' or 3' splice sites in introns, often in repetitive elements. Here we describe two cases of tetrahydrobiopterin deficiency caused by mutations improving the branch point sequence and polypyrimidine tracts of repeat-containing pseudoexons in the PTS gene. In the first case, we demonstrate a novel pathway of antisense Alu exonization, resulting from an intronic deletion that removed the poly(T)-tail of antisense AluSq. The deletion brought a favorable branch point sequence within proximity of the pseudoexon 3' splice site and removed an upstream AG dinucleotide required for the 3' splice site repression on normal alleles. New Alu exons can thus arise in the absence of poly(T)-tails that facilitated inclusion of most transposed elements in mRNAs by serving as polypyrimidine tracts, highlighting extraordinary flexibility of Alu repeats in shaping intron-exon structure. In the other case, a PTS pseudoexon was activated by an A>T substitution 9 nt upstream of its 3' splice site in a LINE-2 sequence, providing the first example of a disease-causing exonization of the most ancient interspersed repeat. These observations expand the spectrum of mutational mechanisms that introduce repetitive sequences in mature transcripts and illustrate the importance of intronic mutations in alternative splicing and phenotypic variability of hereditary disorders.

Melanin pigmentation negatively correlates with plumage preening effort in barn owls

1. According to the handicap principle of sexual selection, colourful ornaments honestly signal absolute quality only if they entail fitness costs. The degree of melanism often covaries positively with aspects of individual quality, and hence melanin-based coloration should be costly to produce or to maintain in a good shape. This is, however, unlikely because melanin-based coloration is often strongly heritable and in birds the rate of feather wear decreases with the amount of melanin pigments packed in feathers. 2. The hypothesis that melanin pigments reduce the cost of maintaining colourful ornaments in a good shape predicts a negative correlation between the degree of melanism and both the size of the uropygial gland that produces preening secretions and the intensity of preening behaviour. 3. Using a correlative approach, I evaluated these two predictions in the barn owl Tyto alba in which the body underside varies from immaculate to heavily marked with black spots, a eumelanin-based trait, and from white to reddish-brown, a phaeomelanin-based trait. I correlated plumage traits with preening behaviour in nestlings and with the size and mass of the uropygial gland in dead adults. I also weighed nonornamental wing and tail feathers to assess whether the quality of nonornamental feathers is positively correlated with the degree of melanism of an ornamental plumage trait. 4. The degree of phaeomelanism was neither associated with preening behaviour nor with the size and mass of the uropygial gland. In line with the two predictions, individuals with more and larger black spots had a lighter uropygial gland and preened less frequently. Because nonornamental wing and tail feathers of spottier individuals were heavier per unit of surface area, the entire plumage of eumelanic individuals may be more robust and in turn require less care than the plumage of nonmelanic conspecifics. 5. In conclusion, the degree of eumelanism can be associated with aspects of individual quality even if eumelanic ornaments are neither costly to produce nor to maintain in a good shape. Document Type: Article