Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.

Maladaptive emotion regulation strategies and stress sensitivity mediate the relation between adverse life events and attenuated positive psychotic symptoms.

INTRODUCTION: There is now solid evidence for a relation between adverse life events (ALE) and psychotic symptoms in patients with psychosis and in the general population. A recent study has shown that this relation may be partially mediated by stress sensitivity, suggesting the influence of other factors. The aim of this study was to assess the mediation effect of emotion regulation strategies and stress sensitivity in the relation between ALE and attenuated positive psychotic symptoms (APPS) in the general population. METHODS: Hundred and twelve healthy volunteers were evaluated with measures of APPS, emotion regulation strategies, ALE and stress sensitivity. RESULTS: Results demonstrated that the relation between ALE, hallucination and delusion proneness was completely mediated by maladaptive emotion regulation strategies, but not by stress sensitivity. However, in addition to maladaptive emotion regulation strategies, stress sensitivity demonstrated a mediation effect between ALE and attenuated positive psychotic positive symptoms when positive psychotic symptoms were grouped together. CONCLUSIONS: There are probably several possible trajectories leading to the formation of positive psychotic symptoms and the results of the present study reveal that one such trajectory may involve the maladaptive regulation of negative emotions alongside a certain general vulnerability after experiencing ALE.