A multi-temporal approach to model endangered species distribution in Europe: the case of the Eurasian otter in Italy

We analysed the relationship between changes in land cover patterns and the Eurasian otter occurrence over the course of about 20 years (1985-2006) using multi-temporal Species Distribution Models (SDMs). The study area includes five river catchments covering most of the otter's Italian range. Land cover and topographic data were used as proxies of the ecological requirements of the otter within a 300-m buffer around river courses. We used species presence, pseudo-absence data, and environmental predictors to build past (1985) and current (2006) SDMs by applying an ensemble procedure through the BIOMOD modelling package. The performance of each model was evaluated by measuring the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Multi-temporal analyses of species distribution and land cover maps were performed by comparing the maps produced for 1985 and 2006. The ensemble procedure provided a good overall modelling accuracy, revealing that elevation and slope affected the otter's distribution in the past; in contrast, land cover predictors, such as cultivations and forests, were more important in the present period. During the transition period, 20.5% of the area became suitable, with 76% of the new otter presence data being located in these newly available areas. The multi-temporal analysis suggested that the quality of otter habitat improved in the last 20 years owing to the expansion of forests and to the reduction of cultivated fields in riparian belts. The evidence presented here stresses the great potential of riverine habitat restoration and environmental management for the future expansion of the otter in Italy

Epidemiology of multiple congenital anomalies in Europe: a EUROCAT population-based registry study.

BACKGROUND: This study describes the prevalence, associated anomalies, and demographic characteristics of cases of multiple congenital anomalies (MCA) in 19 population-based European registries (EUROCAT) covering 959,446 births in 2004 and 2010. METHODS: EUROCAT implemented a computer algorithm for classification of congenital anomaly cases followed by manual review of potential MCA cases by geneticists. MCA cases are defined as cases with two or more major anomalies of different organ systems, excluding sequences, chromosomal and monogenic syndromes. RESULTS: The combination of an epidemiological and clinical approach for classification of cases has improved the quality and accuracy of the MCA data. Total prevalence of MCA cases was 15.8 per 10,000 births. Fetal deaths and termination of pregnancy were significantly more frequent in MCA cases compared with isolated cases (p < 0.001) and MCA cases were more frequently prenatally diagnosed (p < 0.001). Live born infants with MCA were more often born preterm (p < 0.01) and with birth weight < 2500 grams (p < 0.01). Respiratory and ear, face, and neck anomalies were the most likely to occur with other anomalies (34% and 32%) and congenital heart defects and limb anomalies were the least likely to occur with other anomalies (13%) (p < 0.01). However, due to their high prevalence, congenital heart defects were present in half of all MCA cases. Among males with MCA, the frequency of genital anomalies was significantly greater than the frequency of genital anomalies among females with MCA (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Although rare, MCA cases are an important public health issue, because of their severity. The EUROCAT database of MCA cases will allow future investigation on the epidemiology of these conditions and related clinical and diagnostic problems.

Age-period-cohort analysis of oral cancer mortality in Europe: the end of an epidemic?

Over the last decade, mortality from oral and pharyngeal cancer has been declining in most European countries, but it had been increasing substantially in Hungary, Slovakia and a few other countries of central Europe, reaching rates comparable to those of lung cancer in several western European countries in males. To update trends in oral cancer mortality and further analyse the recent epidemic in central Europe, official death certifications for oral and pharyngeal cancer for 37 European countries were derived over the period 1970-2007, and an age-period-cohort model was fitted for selected countries. Male oral cancer mortality continued to decline in most European countries, including the Russian Federation, and, more importantly, it also started to decline in some of the countries with the highest male rates, i.e. Hungary and Slovakia; persisting rises were, however, observed in Belarus, Bulgaria and Romania. Oral cancer mortality rates for women were lower than in men and showed no appreciable trend over recent periods in the EU overall. Estimates from the age-period-cohort analysis for most selected countries showed a fall in effects for the cohorts born after the 1950s. For the period effect displayed a rise for the earlier periods, an inversion in the 1990s and a continuous fall up to the last studied period. Only some former non-market economy countries, like Romania, Ukraine and Lithuania, had rising cohort effect trends up to most recent generations. The major finding of this updated analysis of oral cancer mortality is the leveling of the epidemic for men in most European countries, including Hungary and other central European countries, where mortality from this cancer was exceedingly high. These trends essentially reflect the changes in alcohol and tobacco consumption in various populations.

Epidemiology of small intestinal atresia in Europe: a register-based study.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of congenital small intestinal atresia (SIA) has not been well studied. This study describes the presence of additional anomalies, pregnancy outcomes, total prevalence and association with maternal age in SIA cases in Europe. METHODS: Cases of SIA delivered during January 1990 to December 2006 notified to 20 EUROCAT registers formed the population-based case series. Prevalence over time was estimated using multilevel Poisson regression, and heterogeneity between registers was evaluated from the random component of the intercept. RESULTS: In total 1133 SIA cases were reported among 5126, 164 registered births. Of 1044 singleton cases, 215 (20.6%) cases were associated with a chromosomal anomaly. Of 829 singleton SIA cases with normal karyotype, 221 (26.7%) were associated with other structural anomalies. Considering cases with normal karyotype, the total prevalence per 10 000 births was 1.6 (95% CI 1.5 to 1.7) for SIA, 0.9 (95% CI 0.8 to 1.0) for duodenal atresia and 0.7 (95% CI 0.7 to 0.8) for jejunoileal atresia (JIA). There was no significant trend in SIA, duodenal atresia or JIA prevalence over time (RR=1.0, 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.0 to 1.0 for each), but SIA and duodenal atresia prevalence varied by geographical location (p=0.03 and p=0.04, respectively). There was weak evidence of an increased risk of SIA in mothers aged less than 20 years compared with mothers aged 20 to 29 years (RR=1.3, 95% CrI: 1.0 to 1.8). CONCLUSION: This study found no evidence of a temporal trend in the prevalence of SIA, duodenal atresia or JIA, although SIA and duodenal atresia prevalence varied significantly between registers.

Prenatal diagnosis and epidemiology of multicystic kidney dysplasia in Europe.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to describe the prenatal diagnosis and epidemiology of multicystic kidney dysplasia (MCKD). METHODS: The study is based on routinely collected data from a European database of major congenital anomalies including 13 registries with cases born in 1997-2006 and covering 1 458 552 births. RESULTS: There were 601 MCKD cases giving an overall prevalence of 4.12 per 10 000 births with regional variation. In live births, 87% of cases had an isolated renal anomaly and 13% had associated major nonrenal anomalies (chromosomal, syndrome or other major anomalies). For the cases with isolated renal anomalies, 51/386 (11%) and 7/386 (2%) choose to terminate the pregnancy or resulted in an intrauterine fetal death, respectively. The prenatal detection rate was 88% in both unilateral and bilateral cases. Birth outcome differed with 92% of unilateral MCKD cases being liveborn compared with 33% of bilateral MCKD cases. For unilateral MCKD cases, 84% had an isolated renal anomaly compared with 51% of bilateral MCKD cases (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Cases with unilateral MCKD are mainly liveborn, and only 16% have associated major malformations or a syndrome. Cases with bilateral MCKD are often associated with nonrenal major congenital anomalies or part of a syndrome, and only one third of bilateral MCKD cases in this study were liveborn. Prenatal detection rate of MCKD was high for both unilateral and bilateral cases. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

European Council of Legal Medicine (ECLM) accreditation of forensic pathology services in Europe.

Forensic experts play a major role in the legal process as they offer professional expert opinion and evidence within the criminal justice system adjudicating on the innocence or alleged guilt of an accused person. In this respect, medico-legal examination is an essential part of the investigation process, determining in a scientific way the cause(s) and manner of unexpected and/or unnatural death or bringing clinical evidence in case of physical, psychological, or sexual abuse in living people. From a legal perspective, these types of investigation must meet international standards, i.e., it should be independent, effective, and prompt. Ideally, the investigations should be conducted by board-certified experts in forensic medicine, endowed with a solid experience in this field, without any hierarchical relationship with the prosecuting authorities and having access to appropriate facilities in order to provide forensic reports of high quality. In this respect, there is a need for any private or public national or international authority including non-governmental organizations seeking experts qualified in forensic medicine to have at disposal a list of specialists working in accordance with high standards of professional performance within forensic pathology services that have been successfully submitted to an official accreditation/certification process using valid and acceptable criteria. To reach this goal, the National Association of Medical Examiners (NAME) has elaborated an accreditation/certification checklist which should be served as decision-making support to assist inspectors appointed to evaluate applicants. In the same spirit than NAME Accreditation Standards, European Council of Legal Medicine (ECLM) board decided to set up an ad hoc working group with the mission to elaborate an accreditation/certification procedure similar to the NAME's one but taking into account the realities of forensic medicine practices in Europe and restricted to post-mortem investigations. This accreditation process applies to services and not to individual practitioners by emphasizing policies and procedures rather than professional performance. In addition, the standards to be complied with should be considered as the minimum standards needed to get the recognition of performing and reliable forensic pathology service.

Recent decrease in the prevalence of congenital heart defects in europe.

OBJECTIVES: To examine trends in the prevalence of congenital heart defects (CHDs) in Europe and to compare these trends with the recent decrease in the prevalence of CHDs in Canada (Quebec) that was attributed to the policy of mandatory folic acid fortification. STUDY DESIGN: We used data for the period 1990-2007 for 47 508 cases of CHD not associated with a chromosomal anomaly from 29 population-based European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies registries in 16 countries covering 7.3 million births. We estimated trends for all CHDs combined and separately for 3 severity groups using random-effects Poisson regression models with splines. RESULTS: We found that the total prevalence of CHDs increased during the 1990s and the early 2000s until 2004 and decreased thereafter. We found essentially no trend in total prevalence of the most severe group (group I), whereas the prevalence of severity group II increased until about 2000 and decreased thereafter. Trends for severity group III (the most prevalent group) paralleled those for all CHDs combined. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of CHDs decreased in recent years in Europe in the absence of a policy for mandatory folic acid fortification. One possible explanation for this decrease may be an as-yet-undocumented increase in folic acid intake of women in Europe following recommendations for folic acid supplementation and/or voluntary fortification. However, alternative hypotheses, including reductions in risk factors of CHDs (eg, maternal smoking) and improved management of maternal chronic health conditions (eg, diabetes), must also be considered for explaining the observed decrease in the prevalence of CHDs in Europe or elsewhere.

Comparability of health care responsiveness in Europe

The aim of this paper is to measure and to correct for the potential incomparability of responses to the SHARE survey on health care responsiveness. A parametric approach based on the use of anchoring vignettes is applied to cross-sectional data (2006-2007) in eleven European countries. More than 7,000 respondents aged 50 years old and over were asked to assess the quality of health care responsiveness in three domains: waiting time for medical treatment, quality of the conditions in visited health facilities, and communication and involvement in decisions about the treatment. Our results suggest that there is reporting heterogeneity across countries and across individuals within countries, and the degree of heterogeneity varies with the health care domain. Although leading countries in terms of health care responsiveness remain among the most successful even after correction for reporting heterogeneity, one may acknowledge many shifts in the ranking of the other countries.

Variation in the level of aggression, chemical and genetic distance among three supercolonies of the Argentine ant in Europe.

In their invasive ranges, Argentine ant populations often form one geographically vast supercolony, genetically and chemically uniform within which there is no intraspecific aggression. Here we present regional patterns of intraspecific aggression, cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) and population genetics of 18 nesting sites across Corsica and the French mainland. Aggression tests confirm the presence of a third European supercolony, the Corsican supercolony, which exhibits moderate to high levels of aggression, depending on nesting sites, with the Main supercolony, and invariably high levels of aggression with the Catalonian supercolony. The chemical analyses corroborated the behavioural data, with workers of the Corsican supercolony showing moderate differences in CHCs compared to workers of the European Main supercolony and strong differences compared to workers of the Catalonian supercolony. Interestingly, there were also clear genetic differences between workers of the Catalonian supercolony and the two other supercolonies at both nuclear and mitochondrial markers, but only very weak genetic differentiation between nesting sites of the Corsican and Main supercolonies (F(ST) = 0.06). A detailed comparison of the genetic composition of supercolonies also revealed that, if one of the last two supercolonies derived from the other, it is the Main supercolony that derived from the Corsican supercolony rather than the reverse. Overall, these findings highlight the importance of conducting more qualitative and quantitative analyses of the level of aggression between supercolonies, which has to be correlated with genetic and chemical data.

Epidemiology of congenital diaphragmatic hernia in Europe: a register-based study.

INTRODUCTION: Published prevalence rates of congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) vary. This study aims to describe the epidemiology of CDH using data from high-quality, population-based registers belonging to the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT). METHODS: Cases of CDH delivered between 1980 and 2009 notified to 31 EUROCAT registers formed the population-based case series. Prevalence over time was estimated using multilevel Poisson regression, and heterogeneity between registers was evaluated from the random component of the intercept. RESULTS: There were 3373 CDH cases reported among 12 155 491 registered births. Of 3131 singleton cases, 353 (10.4%) were associated with a chromosomal anomaly, genetic syndrome or microdeletion, 784 (28.2%) were associated with other major structural anomalies. The male to female ratio of CDH cases overall was 1:0.69. Total prevalence was 2.3 (95% CI 2.2 to 2.4) per 10 000 births and 1.6 (95% CI 1.6 to 1.7) for isolated CDH cases. There was a small but significant increase (relative risk (per year)=1.01, 95% credible interval 1.00-1.01; p=0.030) in the prevalence of total CDH over time but there was no significant increase for isolated cases (ie, CDH cases that did not occur with any other congenital anomaly). There was significant variation in total and isolated CDH prevalence between registers. The proportion of cases that survived to 1 week was 69.3% (1392 cases) for total CDH cases and 72.7% (1107) for isolated cases. CONCLUSIONS: This large population-based study found an increase in total CDH prevalence over time. CDH prevalence also varied significantly according to geographical location. No significant association was found with maternal age.

Survey of prenatal screening policies in Europe for structural malformations and chromosome anomalies, and their impact on detection and termination rates for neural tube defects and Down's syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: To 'map' the current (2004) state of prenatal screening in Europe. DESIGN: (i) Survey of country policies and (ii) analysis of data from EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) population-based congenital anomaly registers. SETTING: Europe. POPULATION: Survey of prenatal screening policies in 18 countries and 1.13 million births in 12 countries in 2002-04. METHODS: (i) Questionnaire on national screening policies and termination of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA) laws in 2004. (ii) Analysis of data on prenatal detection and termination for Down's syndrome and neural tube defects (NTDs) using the EUROCAT database. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Existence of national prenatal screening policies, legal gestation limit for TOPFA, prenatal detection and termination rates for Down's syndrome and NTD. RESULTS: Ten of the 18 countries had a national country-wide policy for Down's syndrome screening and 14/18 for structural anomaly scanning. Sixty-eight percent of Down's syndrome cases (range 0-95%) were detected prenatally, of which 88% resulted in termination of pregnancy. Eighty-eight percent (range 25-94%) of cases of NTD were prenatally detected, of which 88% resulted in termination. Countries with a first-trimester screening policy had the highest proportion of prenatally diagnosed Down's syndrome cases. Countries with no official national Down's syndrome screening or structural anomaly scan policy had the lowest proportion of prenatally diagnosed Down's syndrome and NTD cases. Six of the 18 countries had a legal gestational age limit for TOPFA, and in two countries, termination of pregnancy was illegal at any gestation. CONCLUSIONS: There are large differences in screening policies between countries in Europe. These, as well as organisational and cultural factors, are associated with wide country variation in prenatal detection rates for Down's syndrome and NTD.

Long term trends in prevalence of neural tube defects in Europe: population based study.

STUDY QUESTION: What are the long term trends in the total (live births, fetal deaths, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly) and live birth prevalence of neural tube defects (NTD) in Europe, where many countries have issued recommendations for folic acid supplementation but a policy for mandatory folic acid fortification of food does not exist? METHODS: This was a population based, observational study using data on 11 353 cases of NTD not associated with chromosomal anomalies, including 4162 cases of anencephaly and 5776 cases of spina bifida from 28 EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) registries covering approximately 12.5 million births in 19 countries between 1991 and 2011. The main outcome measures were total and live birth prevalence of NTD, as well as anencephaly and spina bifida, with time trends analysed using random effects Poisson regression models to account for heterogeneities across registries and splines to model non-linear time trends. SUMMARY ANSWER AND LIMITATIONS: Overall, the pooled total prevalence of NTD during the study period was 9.1 per 10 000 births. Prevalence of NTD fluctuated slightly but without an obvious downward trend, with the final estimate of the pooled total prevalence of NTD in 2011 similar to that in 1991. Estimates from Poisson models that took registry heterogeneities into account showed an annual increase of 4% (prevalence ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.07) in 1995-99 and a decrease of 3% per year in 1999-2003 (0.97, 0.95 to 0.99), with stable rates thereafter. The trend patterns for anencephaly and spina bifida were similar, but neither anomaly decreased substantially over time. The live birth prevalence of NTD generally decreased, especially for anencephaly. Registration problems or other data artefacts cannot be excluded as a partial explanation of the observed trends (or lack thereof) in the prevalence of NTD. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: In the absence of mandatory fortification, the prevalence of NTD has not decreased in Europe despite longstanding recommendations aimed at promoting peri-conceptional folic acid supplementation and existence of voluntary folic acid fortification. FUNDING, COMPETING INTERESTS, DATA SHARING: The study was funded by the European Public Health Commission, EUROCAT Joint Action 2011-2013. HD and ML received support from the European Commission DG Sanco during the conduct of this study. No additional data available.